[News] Flames development camp - Week of July 4th

[bigrangy]

Originally Posted by bax

107 points in 57 games in a kids draft year doesn't jump off the page or make you go wow?

Yikes tough crowd

Oh for sure, his numbers are very good, but it's very possible to get good numbers and not actually be that good. When you look at how he scored his points, he's still very good, and probably the right pick at 6 (at least among OHL players), but his scoring this year is not a true representation of his actual offensive talent. In terms of straight up stats, you'd expect him to have the offensive capability of a Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin, Phil Kessel, Steven Stamkos, etc.

His comparison with Hall is actually quite ridiculous. Both late birthdays, both 57gp, 107 pts for Tkachuk, 106 for Hall. I know Hall is a terrible all around hockey player, but I certainly don't expect Tkachuk to put up even close to the same offensive totals in the NHL. If scouts expected Tkachuk to be able to produce offense in the NHL at a rate comparable to his draft year comparables, he'd have gone 2nd, 3rd at worst.

I still think he's going to be a quality player, but I'm expecting more Bryan Little than Phil Kessel.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Why? Have to respect someone who is simply providing an assessment of a players performance at camp. A proper assessment for that purpose should absolutely not take into account draft position.

A proper assessment would take size into account when evaluating on NHL ability. Otherwise you get silly comparisons like this one.

Smaller players typically have more skill and are quicker. It doesn't mean they have a better chance of making the NHL. It means they need even more skill to compensate for their small stature.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

A proper assessment would take size into account when evaluating on NHL ability. Otherwise you get silly comparisons like this one.

Smaller players typically have more skill and are quicker. It doesn't mean they have a better chance of making the NHL. It means they need even more skill to compensate for their small stature.

Understood. Guess I didn't take it as an estimation of their NHL readiness but rather an assessment of their performance at camp relative to certain attributes. Nothing more. So I still contend their draft position was meaningless in that context, or frankly in any evaluation going forward.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

Oh for sure, his numbers are very good, but it's very possible to get good numbers and not actually be that good. When you look at how he scored his points, he's still very good, and probably the right pick at 6 (at least among OHL players), but his scoring this year is not a true representation of his actual offensive talent. In terms of straight up stats, you'd expect him to have the offensive capability of a Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin, Phil Kessel, Steven Stamkos, etc.

His comparison with Hall is actually quite ridiculous. Both late birthdays, both 57gp, 107 pts for Tkachuk, 106 for Hall. I know Hall is a terrible all around hockey player, but I certainly don't expect Tkachuk to put up even close to the same offensive totals in the NHL. If scouts expected Tkachuk to be able to produce offense in the NHL at a rate comparable to his draft year comparables, he'd have gone 2nd, 3rd at worst.

I still think he's going to be a quality player, but I'm expecting more Bryan Little than Phil Kessel.

In the modern NHL, with Sam Bennett as his centre, I think it's fair to expect Tkachuk to hit 50 points year in and year out. He's talented enough that a few high 60s low 70s seasons are probably in the cards if he gets the puck luck.

Perfectly acceptable for a non-foundational 6th overall pick.

[bigrangy]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

In the modern NHL, with Sam Bennett as his centre, I think it's fair to expect Tkachuk to hit 50 points year in and year out. He's talented enough that a few high 60s low 70s seasons are probably in the cards if he gets the puck luck.

Perfectly acceptable for a non-foundational 6th overall pick.

Oh no doubt for sure. My point was that you can't extrapolate his draft year numbers into what his future NHL numbers will be, since if you could, we'd be expecting multiple PPG seasons, and sooner rather than later. Who knows, maybe he was the one actually driving that line, and Calgary ends up with the best player in the draft for 5 of the last 6 years. I wonder how many 1st OA picks that took.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

Oh no doubt for sure. My point was that you can't extrapolate his draft year numbers into what his future NHL numbers will be, since if you could, we'd be expecting multiple PPG seasons, and sooner rather than later. Who knows, maybe he was the one actually driving that line, and Calgary ends up with the best player in the draft for 5 of the last 6 years. I wonder how many 1st OA picks that took.

No, but you can watch him at development camp and see plain as day that his game translates to the NHL. It doesn't matter if he 'drove' his line in junior or not. The skills are there.

One can't watch Tkachuk and seriously harbor fears that he's Bill Arnold.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

I would argue that, right now, Phillips is no worse of a hockey player than Matt Tkachuk. Obviously, they project very differently, but at the junior level, both players have roughly the same impact on a game. Tkachuk as the third wheel on a top line and Phillips as the leader of the second line. It's not even remotely out of the ordinary that he could have had a better dev camp than Tkachuk, and therefore receive a higher rating in whichever ranking is used.

wow

[Caged Great]

With Phillips being slightly rated better than Tkachuk, you have to look at Tkachuk's skating ratings. Those themselves lowered him below Phillips and only slightly. When he's not dealing with an ankle problem, that will go away. In terms of raw talent, Tkachuk is the superior player. If Phillips himself wasn't as skilled a player as he is, he would not have been drafted by anyone. It is difficult for short players to get picked in the first place. That's why Gaudreau went in the 4th round. He has first round skill, just in a very small body. If Phillips does make the NHL, he will be a top 6 forward. That is pretty much the only role he can play due to his size.

My ratings are based off of comparing all players, including NHL calibre talents because I am rating the raw skill sets instead of direct comparables with each other. If I was rating prospect vs prospect then the ratings would be different significantly. Kylington, who had the highest ratings, would be closer to a 5.0 than his rating.

In my mind, anyone with a rating of 3.5 or higher can play in the NHL unless they are undersized like Phillips, Fox and Dube without embarrassing themselves. That would mean Gillies, Kylington, Hickey, Jankowski and Tkachuk would all be ready and in my opinion, they all could play if the Flames needed them to. Under my ratings, Gaudreau and Monahan would be closer to a 4.5 give or take as they are now. There are a number of decent prospects in the Flames system. They can always use more though.


Kanzig's speed is perfectly acceptable in a straight line, just like it is with Hunter Smith. Kanzig is getting better when he has to change directions, which has been a large part of the problem. Overall it's better, but still is a work in progress.

[timbit]

Make no mistake, I believe Tkachuk has huge upside.
There is one question mark in his skill set.
A lot of people are waiting to see if his skating will be good enough (injury aside) to make him a high end NHL player.
His hockey IQ and stick skills are very good to excellent but skating is so important at the speed the game is played. Will be interesting to watch.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

Oh for sure, his numbers are very good, but it's very possible to get good numbers and not actually be that good. When you look at how he scored his points, he's still very good, and probably the right pick at 6 (at least among OHL players), but his scoring this year is not a true representation of his actual offensive talent. In terms of straight up stats, you'd expect him to have the offensive capability of a Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin, Phil Kessel, Steven Stamkos, etc.

His comparison with Hall is actually quite ridiculous. Both late birthdays, both 57gp, 107 pts for Tkachuk, 106 for Hall. I know Hall is a terrible all around hockey player, but I certainly don't expect Tkachuk to put up even close to the same offensive totals in the NHL. If scouts expected Tkachuk to be able to produce offense in the NHL at a rate comparable to his draft year comparables, he'd have gone 2nd, 3rd at worst.

I still think he's going to be a quality player, but I'm expecting more Bryan Little than Phil Kessel.

You mean Taylor "Never Scored 30" Hall?

I think your perception of how good Hall is offensively is crippling your argument right now.

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by timbit

Make no mistake, I believe Tkachuk has huge upside.
There is one question mark in his skill set.
A lot of people are waiting to see if his skating will be good enough (injury aside) to make him a high end NHL player.
His hockey IQ and stick skills are very good to excellent but skating is so important at the speed the game is played. Will be interesting to watch.

I too had concerns re his skating but I think this stems from the fact that I didn't start to watch him until his Memorial Cup run, by which time he was playing on a bad ankle. I expect a summer of work with Gary Roberts will allay any concerns in this area.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by timbit

Make no mistake, I believe Tkachuk has huge upside.
There is one question mark in his skill set.
A lot of people are waiting to see if his skating will be good enough (injury aside) to make him a high end NHL player.
His hockey IQ and stick skills are very good to excellent but skating is so important at the speed the game is played. Will be interesting to watch.

He isn't Karlsson - he doesn't need to be. His skating looks like it's on pace to be at about Andrew Ladd's level. Certainly not elite, but one would never confuse Ladd with someone who has trouble getting around.

This may be a problem later in his career, and I don't see Matthew going wire to wire with the Flames, but for the years he'll be in Calgary, he's going to be a productive player, perceived skating issues be damned.

[bigrangy]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

You mean Taylor "Never Scored 30" Hall?

I think your perception of how good Hall is offensively is crippling your argument right now.

Hall is 18th in PPG over the last 3 season among players with more than 50GP.

If Tkachuk was expected to score at that rate, with his physical attributes and pest game, he'd have gone in the top 3. I'm not saying he won't score like that, because a guy like Kyle Okposo (who is pretty much nothing special compared to the elite players imo) is at 17th.

I was trying to argue that Phillips ~= Tkachuk as hockey players today in a junior hockey game. After looking at it some more, I'm definitely wrong but it's not entirely far-fetched to say that. Then I went on a tangent about how I expect Tkachuk to do in the NHL after someone said 107 P in 57 GP are eye-popping #'s. They are, but they have less substance than they should, solely due to the situation Tkachuk was in this season. I know players can defy their junior #'s and outperform once they reach the NHL, but if I had to predict Tkachuk's future, I'd have him as a solid 1st liner (50-65 points) rather than superstar territory (70+ points, which his actual comparables have mostly hit, Stamkos, Spezza, Hall, Kessel, Tavares, etc.).

Tkachuk will likely underperform relative to his draft year stats, but he will still be a very good player.

And plus, if he's crap in the regular season, but goes full playoff monster every season, his contract will likely be cheaper than if he was a monster all year, and the Flames can reap the sweet playoff benefits.

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Click on the names to go to the articles.

Unfortunately for some reason articles on Hunter Smith, Mason McDonald and Tim Harrison did not upload properly. I will get them up later today.

The ratings are based off my opinion of their raw skill sets rather than their likelihood to make the NHL. A guy like Matthew Phillips is an extremely skilled player. Will he be able to overcome his size? that's the million dollar question.

Have you posted the other articles somewhere else, CG? Great read!

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Rick M.

Have you posted the other articles somewhere else, CG? Great read!

I honestly have not had time to get them up. It's been an insanely busy time for me (literally working 16 hrs+ a day). I will try to get them up tonight.

[RichKlit]

Thanks CG for the great write up, much appreciated for those of us who couldn't get out to see the youngsters in action. To those being critical please feel free to take the time and effort to do your own write up.

[Caged Great]

Hunter Smith

Shot - Release 2.75/5, Accuracy 2.5/5, Shot Strength 2.75/5

Skating - Acceleration 2.75/5, Top Speed 3.25/5

Hockey Sense 3.25/5, Passing 2.0/5, Stickhandling 2.5/5, Aggressiveness 3.25/5

Average score - 2.78/5

Mason McDonald

Skating - Acceleration 3.5/5, Top Speed 3.75/5

Positioning 3.75/5 Glove 4/5 – Blocker 3.5/5

Hockey Sense 4/5, Passing 2.5/5, Aggressiveness 3/5

Average score - 3.5/5

[Caged Great]

By the way, I just noticed that the whole positioning/glove/blocker sections on the other goalies was not included because that section does not appear on the article even though the info is in there. I will add it to the other guys.

[Caged Great]

I have finished updating the goalies. Now everything is complete except for Tim Harrison, but for him I do not expect him to earn a contract just like Deblouw. He was the worst of all the Flames property players and a couple of the walk on guys.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

Hall is 18th in PPG over the last 3 season among players with more than 50GP.

Let's see what happens to his numbers playing for a team where he is actually expected to backcheck.

If Tkachuk was expected to score at that rate, with his physical attributes and pest game, he'd have gone in the top 3.

Tkachuk was in the draft with Matthews, who is expected to be a #1 centre, and Laine and Pulujarvi, who are expected to be substantially better goal-scorers than Hall. A player with Hall's offence and Tkachuk's physical attributes and pest game… well… would probably still have gone 4th. Then Columbus and Vancouver had organizational brain farts and drafted by position, and Tkachuk fell to 6th. You can't tell anything from that.