Democratic Presidential Primaries 2008

[HotHotHeat]

I'll stick with Politico on this one. No earlier than May 31st.

Not long after the polls close in the May 20 Kentucky and Oregon primaries, Barack Obama plans to declare victory in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.

And, until at least May 31 and perhaps longer, Hillary Clinton’s campaign plans to dispute it.

It’s a train wreck waiting to happen, with one candidate claiming to be the nominee while the other vigorously denies it, all predicated on an argument over what exactly constitutes the finish line of the primary race.

The Obama campaign agrees with the Democratic National Committee, which pegs a winning majority at 2,025 pledged delegates and superdelegates—a figure that excludes the penalized Florida and Michigan delegations. The Clinton campaign, on the other hand, insists the winner will need 2,209 to cinch the nomination—a tally that includes Florida and Michigan.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10184.html

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Here's Cracked.com's take on last Tuesday:
http://www.cracked.com/article_16252...nterpoint.html

[Blaster86]

I don't think she will drop out. She will drag the whole party down with her rather than admit she's done.

[Nehkara]

I am predicting that Tuesday will be annoying.

Clinton will win by a landslide in West Virginia because no state in the union is better suited for her than West Virginia. She will claim that because of her huge win (in a state everyone knew she would win huge in) that her continued campaign has been validated by the victory in a state with only 39 total delegates... and on we will go to May 20th.

By the way, May 20th will also be annoying.

Obama will win, probably quite handily, in Oregon BUT Clinton will win Kentucky (another state that automatically goes to her, and everyone knows this) and she will AGAIN claim that her continued campaign has been validated by her victory there.

I predict frustrating times ahead.

[peter12]

Is there a precedence for this at all? I mean an Old Party type coming up against a charismatic newcomer during a nomination campaign. I keep thinking '68 with Nixon and Reagan, but actually ended well for the Republicans.

[old-fart]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

I predict frustrating times ahead.

I believe the word you were looking for is "amusing"...

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by old-fart

I believe the word you were looking for is "amusing"...

That too.

[Nehkara]

On Tuesday there was an interesting discussion on CNN while we were waiting for results from Indiana.

Something I haven't thought about in a long time actually.

They were saying, and I quite agree, what an amazing accomplishment this campaign has been for Barack Obama. Someone who is new to the US government has come in and will very likely defeat in the primaries someone who is one of the most recognized people in American politics. It just a huge achievement. He has run a brilliant and downright awe-inspiring campaign given what he was up against.

If all goes well with the primaries and with the general election for Obama, it will be interesting to watch what happens when the US has a respectable and competent leader again.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

On Tuesday there was an interesting discussion on CNN while we were waiting for results from Indiana.

Something I haven't thought about in a long time actually.

They were saying, and I quite agree, what an amazing accomplishment this campaign has been for Barack Obama. Someone who is new to the US government has come in and will very likely defeat in the primaries someone who is one of the most recognized people in American politics. It just a huge achievement. He has run a brilliant and downright awe-inspiring campaign given what he was up against.

If all goes well with the primaries and with the general election for Obama, it will be interesting to watch what happens when the US has a respectable and competent leader again.

With the mess Bush is leaving in Iraq, and the oil crises, and the housing crises, and the food crises, and the deficit crises, and the health care crises, and the immigration crises and the taxation inequalities, yeah I'd say whoever wins needs to be competent.

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

With the mess Bush is leaving in Iraq, and the oil crises, and the housing crises, and the food crises, and the deficit crises, and the health care crises, and the immigration crises and the taxation inequalities, yeah I'd say whoever wins needs to be competent.

Whoever wins will have to deal with a lot of disappointed Americans who expected their woes to dissipate with the election of a new government. In all likelihood, they'll stay stuck in Iraq, oil prices will continue to rise, the housing crisis will worsen along with the economy, and problems currently being kept in the cellar by the current administration will worm their way into the light. Whoever wins can expect a pretty difficult first year or two in power IMO. It will probably be tougher on Obama than it would be on Clinton, because his campaign relies more on hope. And I think when some of those hopes aren't quickly realized, grumbling will continue.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

Whoever wins will have to deal with a lot of disappointed Americans who expected their woes to dissipate with the election of a new government. In all likelihood, they'll stay stuck in Iraq, oil prices will continue to rise, the housing crisis will worsen along with the economy, and problems currently being kept in the cellar by the current administration will worm their way into the light. Whoever wins can expect a pretty difficult first year or two in power IMO. It will probably be tougher on Obama than it would be on Clinton, because his campaign relies more on hope. And I think when some of those hopes aren't quickly realized, grumbling will continue.

Or the free market economy....if allowed to fluctuate by itself will end up lowering the oil prices(article the other day said it should be expected by the end of the year)....lower the housing prices, and the economy will rebound.

Iraq? Obama isn't going to pull out....but progress IS being made(cease fire was just declared between es and Sunni's)...and if allowed to continue, things will get better.

Of course....the deficit won't go down, health care will still be a problem, social security won't be fixed.....and the debt will continue to rise.

Can't wait.

Oh, and I agree wit h you. A lot of Americans are going to be pissed off if Obama won't be able to 'fix' everything during his first term. Which of course he won't....considering what HAS to be fixed...and what he is suggesting should be done.

[HotHotHeat]

Originally Posted by Azure

Or the free market economy....if allowed to fluctuate by itself will end up lowering the oil prices(article the other day said it should be expected by the end of the year)....lower the housing prices, and the economy will rebound.

The current state of the world economy is unprecedented. Free market trends and economic polices of the past (ie. lowering the FED rate to jump start consumer spending) is a pipe dream fix. Oil is never going to average anywhere near $100 again (the most conservative report I've read admitted an 2008 average trading price of $108).

Right wing free market thinking has in essence created this mess by uncontrolled consumption...And now we get to watch the negative effects of such thinking.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

Superdelegates:

Clinton 267 (4 ahead)
Obama 263


Obama increases his lead again, and again it is the largest lead he has had in the campaign. He now leads by 164 total delegates, 168 pledged delegates. He is now only 4 superdelegates behind.

According to CNN, Obama is now only 2 superdelegates behind, making the superdelegates effectively a wash at this point.

With that in mind, I'm guessing Clinton drops out very soon.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by HotHotHeat

The current state of the world economy is unprecedented. Free market trends and economic polices of the past (ie. lowering the FED rate to jump start consumer spending) is a pipe dream fix. Oil is never going to average anywhere near $100 again (the most conservative report I've read admitted an 2008 average trading price of $108).

Right wing free market thinking has in essence created this mess by uncontrolled consumption...And now we get to watch the negative effects of such thinking.

Yes....because you work in the energy sector....or in trading...and you KNOW what the oil price is going to do.

HOUSTON - Even as oil prices ascended to new highs of more than $124 a barrel this week, many oil and gas industry executives say they expect the price to fall significantly by year's end, a new survey says.
Fifty-five percent of 372 petroleum-industry executives surveyed by KPMG LLP said they think the price of a barrel of crude will drop below $100 by the end of the year. Twenty-one percent of respondents predicted a barrel of oil will end the year between $101 and $110, while 15 percent forecast the year-end price to be between $111 and $120 a barrel.
Nine percent said they expect the price to close the year where it's been this week - above $120 a barrel.

http://www.azcentral.com/business/ar...urvey0509.html

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

According to CNN, Obama is now only 2 superdelegates behind, making the superdelegates effectively a wash at this point.

With that in mind, I'm guessing Clinton drops out very soon.

Obama is now ahead in super-delegates.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/20...518506-ap.html

Barack Obama has overtaken Hillary Rodham Clinton in superdelegate endorsements for the first time.

Obama picked up four superdelegate endorsements, including two from the Virgin Islands who had previously endorsed Clinton.

[Azure]

She's not going to dropout....even with the superdelegates slowly fading away.

Here is why...

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=848

[Nehkara]

IMPORTANT DELEGATE UPDATE!

Total Delegates:

Clinton 1697
Obama 1866 (169 ahead)


Pledged Delegates:

Clinton 1424
Obama 1592 (168 ahead)


Superdelegates:

Clinton 273
Obama 274 (1 ahead)


Obama now leads in superdelegates! Total lead up to 169.

[Kipper is King]

Yay Obama! But if Clinton does not drop out quickley, she's doing more harm for the Democrats than good!

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Kipper is King

But if Clinton does not drop out quickley, she's doing more harm for the Democrats than good!

She's been doing that for over a month now.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Azure

She's not going to dropout....even with the superdelegates slowly fading away.

Here is why...

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=848

The rumor that I heard, and I could be wrong is that Clinton isn't going to drop out until the end, where she is going to force the Democrats to accept a platform based around Universal Health Care in exchange for her making a gracious exit.