2023 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[Jiggy_12]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I always feel like it's bad karma to try and pick your opponent. Get in, then beat whoever you face.

Yeah, Ryu won't be a starter in the playoffs. Gausman, Berrios, and Bassitt would be my guess. Kikuchi maybe (depending on opponent), but Ryu ain't happening.

Totally. last year, most people really wanted Seattle and to host the games.

Turns out, that's a memory I'd prefer to wipe from existence

[Wastedyouth]

Ryu has been pretty dominant though. And has the pedigree. I think you play him.

[Kasi]

Not really he just doesn’t have the stuff right now to dominate good teams. Too much nibbling.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Ryu has been pretty dominant though. And has the pedigree. I think you play him.

Who do you sit, in order to start Ryu? Also, do you remember his last playoff start?

[Enoch Root]

For the HOU-SEA series that starts tonight, here are the implications for the Jays (assuming everything else goes against the Jays):

HOU sweep: Jays need 3 wins to clinch
HOU 2-1: 3 wins
SEA 2-1: 2 wins
SEA sweep: 1 win

So, as I said earlier, HOU losing is the best scenario. Also, #### those cheats!

[Jiggy_12]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

For the HOU-SEA series that starts tonight, here are the implications for the Jays (assuming everything else goes against the Jays):

HOU sweep: Jays need 3 wins to clinch
HOU 2-1: 3 wins
SEA 2-1: 2 wins
SEA sweep: 1 win

So, as I said earlier, HOU losing is the best scenario. Also, #### those cheats!

Maybe I’m missing something, but if Houston sweeps, the best the Mariners can achieve is 88 wins. Jays already have 87, so we would only need 2 wins in that case

[flamingred89]

So basically we're hoping for anything but a Astros 2-1 series win.

[You Need a Thneed]

Sportsclubstats (50/50 is probably better than weighted with the number of games remaining) has the Jays at 55% to make the playoffs if they go 0-6, 89% to get in if they go 1-5, and 99% if they go 2-4

[activeStick]

I commited to playoff tickets with a buddy who has 1/4 seasons, so hoping the Jays can pull through here! Exciting times as I've never been to an MLB playoff game before.

[flamingred89]

Originally Posted by activeStick

I commited to playoff tickets with a buddy who has 1/4 seasons, so hoping the Jays can pull through here! Exciting times as I've never been to an MLB playoff game before.

Hot damn that's amazing! Fingers crossed for you!

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

It sure doesn't feel this way:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1706291628921487518

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Well, they still lost 44 times, and from what I can tell by this forum, every loss requires deep analysis into the root problems of the team and a total reassessment of management's philosophy. Wins don't get any scrutiny at all.

[transplant99]

Analytic probabilities for AL teams for each series

Spoilered for size

Spoiler!

[SuperMatt18]

Thing with this team is if the bats and lack of power was a bit unexpected.

Last year the team's issue was team defense, pitching, and over reliance on the long ball.

They sacrificed some power to improve the defence, and now this year the team defence is elite, the pitching has been very good, but the biggest problem is the teams power and situational hitting has been non-existent.

But at the same time...that always felt like more of a "bad season" type of result than them not having the pieces.

Jansen/Kirk: Okay career power numbers
Guerrero: With his swing he really should be a lock for 35-40 HRs if he's on top of his game
Chapman: Generally good for 25-30 HRs...has 15 this year
Bichette: Should be good generally for 25 HRs
Varsho- should be good for 20-25
Springer - should be good for 25 or so HRs
Belt - good for 15-20 HRs

So the bats have some pop...but it really has felt like something was off with the approach for a lot of the hitters TBH and it's more of a team thing.

But if they can figure that out, and start finding the runs and the pitching/defense continues to be strong, then all of a sudden this team looks great.

It's really a shame that Manoah decided to just self combust this year because if you had peak Manoah, Gausman, Bassit, and Berrios going into the post-season with the improved bullpen then you'd be in good shape.

[mrkajz44]

The way we feel about the team is all expectations really. They won 91 and 92 games in 2021 and 2022 and we'll likely end up around that number again after this week. So the team has basically been the same "strength" for all three years, yet each of those years has felt quite different.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Well, they still lost 44 times, and from what I can tell by this forum, every loss requires deep analysis into the root problems of the team and a total reassessment of management's philosophy. Wins don't get any scrutiny at all.

lol so true, and I'm one of them. I need to be a better fan.

Weren't they like booed off the field after the Texans series or in one of those games haha... like honestly, they've managed to patch it together decently here.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Analytic probabilities for AL teams for each series

Spoilered for size

Spoiler!

Some of that seems off to me. Especially Minnesota. They have clinched their division so they are in the wild card round. That has them at a 57% chance of making ALDS.

Are they the favorite in the wildcard round against any of the Jays/Mariners/Astros/Rangers? They have home field advantage but whoever they play will have more wins than MIN playing in a harder division.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Some of that seems off to me. Especially Minnesota. They have clinched their division so they are in the wild card round. That has them at a 57% chance of making ALDS.

Are they the favorite in the wildcard round against any of the Jays/Mariners/Astros/Rangers? They have home field advantage but whoever they play will have more wins than MIN playing in a harder division.

Twins are WAY better at home than on the road and i believe that goes into the calculations.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Some of that seems off to me. Especially Minnesota. They have clinched their division so they are in the wild card round. That has them at a 57% chance of making ALDS.

Are they the favorite in the wildcard round against any of the Jays/Mariners/Astros/Rangers? They have home field advantage but whoever they play will have more wins than MIN playing in a harder division.

But they (and the Rays) will be playing that round at home, that is why those 2 have a high probability of advancing

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jiggy_12

Maybe I’m missing something, but if Houston sweeps, the best the Mariners can achieve is 88 wins. Jays already have 87, so we would only need 2 wins in that case

Yes, you are correct - I messed up that one somehow. If HOU sweeps, the best SEA can do is 88-74, meaning the Jays need 2 wins.