The Blue Jays: 2009 Season Thread

[KTown]

This team is heading into last in the American League East before the all-star break (maybe we can fend off Baltimore lol). What a disaster. How Riccardi still has a job is mind boggling

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by KTown

This team is heading into last in the American League East before the all-star break (maybe we can fend off Baltimore lol). What a disaster. How Riccardi still has a job is mind boggling

I'm not a huge JP fan but when you look at the fact that injuries have wiped out almost all of what would have been the entire starting rotation except for Doc - it's hard to blame the GM.

[raven024]

I'm not a huge JP fan but when you look at the fact that injuries have wiped out almost all of what would have been the entire starting rotation except for Doc - it's hard to blame the GM.

The thing is, our pitching really hasn't been that bad, even with the injuries. It's our supposed big bats that are losing us games right now. As well as some questionable base-running.

Wells definitely could use being benched a game or two.

As for JP...he's had years of increasing payroll (up until the past season or two) and done nothing to better our standing with it. For a guy who's a proponent of money-ball, his track record is terrible. We've changed managers and immediately saw an up-turn in performance. Imagine what Cito could do if he had a better GM bringing in better players?

[JayP]

Originally Posted by EN FUEGO

Cito's just showing his faith in Wells because he earned the contract and star status with years of good play. I think it takes more than a couple months of mediocre play to erase all that. Saying he's the worst player in the league is just silly, go look at some stats please. For the money maybe, but Andruw Jones was much worse last year on a similar contract. We're also not even half way through the year yet.......but I must admit as the resident Wells apologist even I'm beginning to wonder if he can turn it around.

I'm not exaggerating when I say he's in the argument for worst player in the league. When you combine his bad bat with arguably the worst defense in the majors, he's right in the argument.

In terms of WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player), Vernon has added -1.0 wins to the Jays this season. That's tied for 3rd worst in the league, behind only Brian Giles and Garrett Atkins. For those not familar with WARP, it basically translates advanced batting (ie; OPS+) and fielding (UZR - the best fielding metric out there) metrics into wins added/subtracted (adding 10 runs is basically adding 1 win) and adjusting for position (weak-hitting shortstops aren't penalized greatly for their bats, but corner outfielders would be).

The only thing Vernon has going for him is the fact that's it only a 2.5 month sample. But let's not forget that he put up a brutal .706 OPS in 2007.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by EN FUEGO

I find it interesting that you say "Rios was sure to come around sometime". 2 weeks ago their numbers were almost identical, but Wells has gotten even worse (somehow). Why is it that Wells isn't "sure to come around"?

Two weeks ago:
Wells' OPS: .729
Rios' OPS: .775

The big reason I say that is that Rios had just put up a .868 OPS in May. He had a poor start to June, but after a very solid May it didn't seem like the right time to move him down the order.

Wells, on the other hand, had a decent April (.810 OPS), but followed it with a .661 OPS in May. Couple that with his downright brutal start to June (it's at .342 OPS right now, so it couldn't have been better than .400-.450 before this weekend) shaking up his line-up spot made sense...but not to give him more plate appearances.

So to sum up, Rios had a good May, but a 10-game slump at the start of June. To me that signals the standards ups-and-downs of the baseball season. Wells' slump has been going on for 50 games - which is starting to become alarming.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by raven024

The thing is, our pitching really hasn't been that bad, even with the injuries. It's our supposed big bats that are losing us games right now. As well as some questionable base-running.

Wells definitely could use being benched a game or two.

As for JP...he's had years of increasing payroll (up until the past season or two) and done nothing to better our standing with it. For a guy who's a proponent of money-ball, his track record is terrible. We've changed managers and immediately saw an up-turn in performance. Imagine what Cito could do if he had a better GM bringing in better players?

The Jays are 6th in runs scored and 14th in run against. The Jay's bats are losing us games lately, but at the start of the year they were the reason we were in first place for so long.

It's hard to blame the GM when we've lost 3 starting pitchers to Tommy John in less than a year. And the replacements have done pretty admirable considering the circumstances.

[cross16]

I don't blame Riccardi for how this season is going. IMo, the run they went on was more of a fluke than anything. i never saw that as the true Jays team. They way they are playing right now is about what i expected out of them this season. If anything, and I don't like doing this as I am not a Riccardi fan, you had to give him some credit for this season. The Jays have been missing 3 members of their rotation (indlucing Litsch who has not really pitched at all this season) for the entire year and are remaining respectable. Speaks to some solid depth.
Only problem I have with them right now is the insistant on leaving Jansen in the rotation. He's had more success as a reliever and IMO does not have the stuff to be a starter.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by raven024

The thing is, our pitching really hasn't been that bad, even with the injuries. It's our supposed big bats that are losing us games right now. As well as some questionable base-running.

Wells definitely could use being benched a game or two.

As for JP...he's had years of increasing payroll (up until the past season or two) and done nothing to better our standing with it. For a guy who's a proponent of money-ball, his track record is terrible. We've changed managers and immediately saw an up-turn in performance. Imagine what Cito could do if he had a better GM bringing in better players?

Pretty much.

His entire track record has very little to do with Money Ball - The Vernon Wells contract in particular was a huge slap to the face of Billy Beane. He might have worked with Billy, but he has brought almost none of those philosophies to the table.

Anyways, if you want to take a look back into history, there was some "heated" discussion about this topic right around the period this contract was signed. You can also ignore the spat between me and Jiri.

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthr...n+Wells&page=5

...And some people were worried about Wells using the "out" clause in his contract.

Jiri, I really didn't like his moves. It wasn't blind hatred that off season.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthr...n+Wells&page=5

...And some people were worried about Wells using the "out" clause in his contract.

Jiri, I really didn't like his moves. It wasn't blind hatred that off season.

Wow that was 2.5 years ago eh....time flies. Anyhoo I think it's pretty clear who was right and who was dead wrong in that argument.

[Gozer]

Mike Wilner (the Jays' Rob Kerr) has strongly suggested that Riccardi did not have a say in the Wells contract - ownership wanted to keep their star player and paid him what he wanted.

[Sylvanfan]

Wow, so there were 4 centerfielders being talked about there with Wells, Beltran, Sizemore, and Andruw Jones. Beltran is the one who's been the most productive by a long shot. Although Sizemore until this year had been pretty good too. Considering that Sizemore being younger than the other three almost shouldn't count...you can say that 1 out of 3 guys has kept producing, and even with that he had one off year mixed in. Another guy who signed based on those values was Torii Hunter and he's been okay for the Angels. Big start to this year, but nothing outstanding last year, especially for that salary.

Conclusion....unless you are the Mets, or Yankees, or other team who can afford to make a 20 million dollar a year mistake, don't sign the UFA outfielder to an expensive long term contract!

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Gozer

Mike Wilner (the Jays' Rob Kerr) has strongly suggested that Riccardi did not have a say in the Wells contract - ownership wanted to keep their star player and paid him what he wanted.

That makes sense, have to wonder if Wells is hurt... Its odd he has been so off the full season.

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by flambers

That makes sense, have to wonder if Wells is hurt... Its odd he has been so off the full season.

If by "hurt" you mean "not taking steroids anymore" and by "the full season" you mean "since 2006" than I agree.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Gozer

If by "hurt" you mean "not taking steroids anymore" and by "the full season" you mean "since 2006" than I agree.

That's BS, Wells had a good season last year until he broke his wrist....

Steriod thing is an easy tag to throw around... In Wells case I have never heard it even rumoured in his case.

[Jason14h]

Wells has been on a steady decline for 2.5 years.

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Wells has been on a steady decline for 2.5 years.

And Game of Shadows was published 3 years ago...

Sorry MLB fans, condoning the steroid era makes this kind of insinuation fair game.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Wells has been on a steady decline for 2.5 years.

Wells played 108 games last season, missed a pile of games due to a broken wrist. However he still finished the season as follows;

108 games
20 HR
78 RBIs
.302 AVG

At his current pace, he was generating ~ .72 RBIs per game. If healthly he would of generated around ~ 110 to 120 RBIs which is around is career high.

[Jason14h]

He also hit into 16 DP's and had a OBP of .343. His range factor (Rtot) was an embarassing -8.7, meaning his fielding cost the team almost 9 runs compared to an AVERAGE fielder.

Using Similarity Scores:
One point for each difference of 20 games played.
One point for each difference of 75 at bats.
One point for each difference of 10 runs scored.
One point for each difference of 15 hits.
One point for each difference of 5 doubles.
One point for each difference of 4 triples.
One point for each difference of 2 home runs.
One point for each difference of 10 RBI.
One point for each difference of 25 walks.
One point for each difference of 150 strikeouts.
One point for each difference of 20 stolen bases.
One point for each difference of .001 in batting average.
One point for each difference of .002 in slugging percentage.

Here are the players he is closest to:

1. Aubrey Huff
2. Jacque Jones
3. Juan Encarnacion
4. J.D. Drew

He is becoming Andrew Jones very very quickly

[Gozer]

Other fun Wells stats;
(Stats are 2009 sOPS+, or standardized split-specific measures of offense.
Suffice to say that 100 is average, 150 is incredible, and 50 is awful.)

At Home: 29
June: -5
Bases loaded: 1
Runners on 2nd and 3rd: -23
2 outs: 75
2 outs, RISP: 62
Late & Close*: 47
High leverage**: 17
Innings 7-9: 56
3rd+ time facing SP: 46
Last 14 days: -5
VS Yankees: -10 (small sample size)
Batting 3rd: -79 (small sample size)

That's your twenty five million dollar cleanup hitter in the prime of his career ladies and gentlemen!


* Late & Close are PA in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.
** Don't actually know what that means

Source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ve01&year=&t=b

[Gozer]

More fun Wells facts, via BJH:

since May 6th has been an abysmal .201 with 7 RBI's in 35 games

It’s been 137 at bats since his last home run and 17 at bats since his last hit.