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Old 07-19-2022, 04:34 PM   #821
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You're utilizing the benefit of hindsight to evaluate past decisions. Of course you're going to be more right.
I thought the same thing last summer, I thought it was a given.
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Old 07-19-2022, 04:34 PM   #822
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So, what is the important date here? Are there any deadlines?
Only the date of Tkachuk's scheduled arbitration hearing, which should be released this week. A trade or a signing that is longer than 2 years needs to happen before the arbitration hearing date.
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Old 07-19-2022, 04:35 PM   #823
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So, what is the important date here? Are there any deadlines?
Arbitration begins on July 27th and runs to August 11th, so a hearing could occur any time between those dates.

Something has happen before a hearing (he is traded or signed) or the Flames are screwed. If it gets to arbitration, the arbitrator could award a 1-year deal worth more than what his QO would have been, plus the Flames would either have walk away from it for nothing, or accept it and be unable to trade him.

This is for all the marbles.
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Old 07-19-2022, 04:35 PM   #824
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What is most surprising about today's news for me is the lack of actual rumours now. I would have expected some a few local media types from different markets in the NHL to be reporting about offers from their respective markets, or at least rumours of interest. I have seen nothing.


Makes me think that Treliving and Tkachuk are working on a deal. Maybe? Maybe not. Calgary is tight-lipped, but many other organizations aren't.



I guess we will find out soon enough.
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Old 07-19-2022, 04:36 PM   #825
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What is most surprising about today's news for me is the lack of actual rumours now. I would have expected some a few local media types from different markets in the NHL to be reporting about offers from their respective markets, or at least rumours of interest. I have seen nothing.


Makes me think that Treliving and Tkachuk are working on a deal. Maybe? Maybe not. Calgary is tight-lipped, but many other organizations aren't.



I guess we will find out soon enough.
To be fair, Johnny’s contract negotiations were pretty tight lipped as well. Only now is more stuff coming out about what truly happened
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Old 07-19-2022, 04:38 PM   #826
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Yes and no. More money, but questions about his individual production without JG. Somewhere between his performance with Backlund and last year, given Lindholm is still there. So how much is 80-80 points worth?
I would agree that without an elite distributor like Johnny, Tkachuk is probably closer to an 80-point player, but that doesn't really help Treliving right now. I would also think that other GM's would have a similar concern -- I'm assuming Matthew kicked tires on potential offer sheets before yesterday so presumably he has some idea what the market is out there? If he wants to maximize his next deal, I don't think it's in his interests to let this drag on to next year either.
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Old 07-19-2022, 04:38 PM   #827
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So, what is the important date here? Are there any deadlines?
The hearing schedule should be announced in the next day or so.

They have until the hearing starts to freely negotiate a new contract of any length. Once the hearing starts, they'll be committed to a one-year contract for whatever amount the arbitrator decides.

If it goes to the hearing or they negotiate a one-year deal beforehand, he won't be able to sign an extension until after January 1, 2023.


The Flames are also free to trade him any time before or after the hearing. He can only sign an 8-year extension with the Flames until next year's trade deadline, any other team can only offer 7 years.
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Old 07-19-2022, 04:38 PM   #828
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Arbitration begins on July 27th and runs to August 11th, so a hearing could occur any time between those dates.

Something has happen before a hearing (he is traded or signed) or the Flames are screwed. If it gets to arbitration, the arbitrator could award a 1-year deal worth more than what his QO would have been, plus the Flames would either have walk away from it for nothing, or accept it and be unable to trade him.

This is for all the marbles.
I fully expect the award to be higher than QO, but not by that much.

However, they could still trade him. He'd be a rental. Same as if they trade him today.
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Old 07-19-2022, 04:40 PM   #829
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I would agree that without an elite distributor like Johnny, Tkachuk is probably closer to an 80-point player, but that doesn't really help Treliving right now. I would also think that other GM's would have a similar concern -- I'm assuming Matthew kicked tires on potential offer sheets before yesterday so presumably he has some idea what the market is out there? If he wants to maximize his next deal, I don't think it's in his interests to let this drag on to next year either.
I agree with that, which is why the leverage pulls both ways. Tkachuk's best deal is right now, either with Calgary or a team he's traded to. So if Treliving offers him a big enough number he'd be wise to take it.
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Old 07-19-2022, 04:41 PM   #830
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plus the Flames would either have walk away from it for nothing, or accept it and be unable to trade him.
Because the Flames filed for arbitration, they can't walk away no matter how much the award is. They can trade him, however.
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Old 07-19-2022, 04:42 PM   #831
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Jeeze, it's almost like the only way to win long term in a canadian market is to build from the draft over a period of 5-6 years and then lock the resulting star players into max length contracts as soon as possible.
Please list the Canadian markets that have followed that strategy and won long-term.
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Old 07-19-2022, 04:43 PM   #832
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Those aren't facts. Gaudreau is obviously not playing here anymore, but he didn't demand a trade out of here and appeared willing and ready to commit long term before a change of heart. I believe (opinion, not fact) that Tkachuk would stay if the Flames paid him enough coin.
Agree with this. If the dollar figure, term, and aav etc all make sense to him, he will sign here. Otherwise he'll take his talents elsewhere who is willing to pay him the highest.

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Old 07-19-2022, 04:43 PM   #833
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Old 07-19-2022, 04:44 PM   #834
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I don't see him as a victim at all.
Victim as in people think because he’s American he has no interest in staying and wants to bolt the first chance he gets.
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Old 07-19-2022, 04:45 PM   #835
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Jeeze, it's almost like the only way to win long term in a canadian market is to build from the draft over a period of 5-6 years and then lock the resulting star players into max length contracts as soon as possible. Almost like what the whole forum has essentially been advocating for for the last 10 years. We almost friggen did it and pulled up too early to try and get Hamonic. I am forgiving the Dougie get because he was a young stud D man in the core age range still. Anyways, reverse that Hamonic trade, we come out with Dobson on top of our current group and maybe that changes the outcome last playoffs. That was our chance. A few more pieces for other trades to bring in difference makers maybe too.

End of the day, the only way to get back here is start over. you're right, we're very unlikely to improve the team measurably through attracting free agents or hoping foreign players stay in Calgary into their 30s when they have contract freedom.
I agree with you in that a reset is needed, and stop drafting American players, they clearly don't want to be here unless no other options are available to them
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Old 07-19-2022, 04:47 PM   #836
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Victim as in people think because he’s American he has no interest in staying and wants to bolt the first chance he gets.
If he doesn't sign in Calgary, for the boatload of money they are likely offering, that's probably true. I guess there's an outside chance he wants to go to Ottawa, where his brother is, but I doubt that.
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Old 07-19-2022, 04:55 PM   #837
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Has there been any actual indication that he isn't interested in signing long term here? At first it sounded like the arbitration was being viewed as a positive, because it gave them more time to work out a deal. Is all the Tkachuk wants out talk stemming from Eric Francis 's thoughts, or is there more that I haven't seen?
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Old 07-19-2022, 05:02 PM   #838
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Agree with this. If the dollar figure, term, and aav etc all make sense to him, he will sign here. Otherwise he'll take his talents elsewhere who is willing to pay him the highest.

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As Gaudreau showed us, there's more to it than just money. If the player doesn't want to be here he might just take less to leave like Johnny did.
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Old 07-19-2022, 05:03 PM   #839
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If he doesn't sign in Calgary, for the boatload of money they are likely offering, that's probably true. I guess there's an outside chance he wants to go to Ottawa, where his brother is, but I doubt that.

But right now that’s all speculation. We don’t know how much this “boatload” of money is.
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Old 07-19-2022, 05:04 PM   #840
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If he doesn't sign in Calgary, for the boatload of money they are likely offering, that's probably true. I guess there's an outside chance he wants to go to Ottawa, where his brother is, but I doubt that.

I doubt that as well, from a few times he talked about his brother, sounded like they are ultra competitive. They want to beat their brother not win with the brother. May be later in their careers, when they get older, they would want to win with the brother.
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