Toronto Blue Jays - Offseason Thread

[Jason14h]

Fair enough appreciate the salary correction.

Just annoying we could have EE instead of morales and smoak !

[Alberta_Beef]

Jesus, you really live and die by that WAR stat eh. Seems like a strange hill to die on since many sites calculate it differently.

[JiriHrdina]

It is also easy to play GM with hindsight.
As others have pointed out, what if the Jays were sitting here without EE or Morales?
The decision process by management was sound.

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

It is also easy to play GM with hindsight.
As others have pointed out, what if the Jays were sitting here without EE or Morales?
The decision process by management was sound.

I agree, can you imagine how people would be reacting if we didn't get either? How can anyone sit here and think waiting on a maybe is the way to go?

It's like asking a girl to marry you, then she goes on all these dates with other guys. Are you going to sit around and wait for her to realize that maybe she should have said yes? Or will you move on with your life?

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

It is also easy to play GM with hindsight.
As others have pointed out, what if the Jays were sitting here without EE or Morales?
The decision process by management was sound.

Was it?

I haven't followed the ins and outs closely, but it really seems like the Jays gave EE what amounted to a "take it or leave it" offer, then immediately moved on. Certainly they did not spend any real time trying to negotiate. The perception is going to be that they hardly tried to sign EE, and I don't think that perception is wrong. This was a debacle done in tandem - Jays management and Encarnacion's agent.

[JiriHrdina]

They even extended the time for him to consider the offer. What more could they have done?

[dino7c]

It may not be their fault but is the plan to come back next season with a team worse than the one that wasn't good enough last year?

[Dion]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Was it?

I haven't followed the ins and outs closely, but it really seems like the Jays gave EE what amounted to a "take it or leave it" offer, then immediately moved on. Certainly they did not spend any real time trying to negotiate. The perception is going to be that they hardly tried to sign EE, and I don't think that perception is wrong. This was a debacle done in tandem - Jays management and Encarnacion's agent.

The risk in waiting is other teams snapping up the free agents leaving the Jays with nothing. Rumour was that other teams were interested in Morales and the Jays had to make thier move.

Encarnacion's agent over estimated what he thought his player should get and it cost Edwin.

[bluejays]

Those who are complaining here really are just complaining because that's what they do.

Sucks that we lost Edwin, but the Jays simply made the right decision to not gamble and get nothing then scramble.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by dino7c

It may not be their fault but is the plan to come back next season with a team worse than the one that wasn't good enough last year?

With age of our core I don't the think the plan could have reasonably been to improve or even maintain our contender status. I've come to terms with that, but unfortunately it appears as though they're going to go halfway and attempt to keep buts in the seats with a "competitive" roster.

Before anyone jumps in, I realize the reported $160mil payroll isn't "halfway", but by halfway I mean you either go for a championship or rebuild and it's clear they don't have the ability to go for a championship, so I wish they'd start offloading and get our prospect base back on track.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Well when it comes to offloading that essentially means one person: JD. Jays don't really have much else as far as position players go to bring in a huge haul. Trading Tulo or Martin probably nets you middling prospects since taking their contracts is the problem. But obviously trading JD is giving up on the season in the eyes of the fans, and as you mention jayswin Rogers probably isn't looking to do that, they want to cash in a bit more with a "competitive" roster.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

But obviously trading JD is giving up on the season in the eyes of the fans, and as you mention jayswin Rogers probably isn't looking to do that, they want to cash in a bit more with a "competitive" roster.

Yep, this is where we're at for at least a couple seasons, imo. I know you dismissed Tulo and Martin trades as not returning a lot, but if you're ready to rebuild that's what you do and then the sum of all your trades and pick stockpiling hopefully leads to good things overall in a few years.

[Roof-Daddy]

They are "off loading" in a way and rebuilding the prospect base. They're trying to stay competitive while they do it though, because they actually have a strong starting rotation and several key position players signed for at least next year.

Now that EE has signed elsewhere they get (IIRC?) the 25th pick in the next draft to go along with the one they already have.

They also added two solid prospects from Pittsburgh by taking on Liriano's contract last year, which funnily enough was a move that also made them more competitive at the same time, and probably for next season too if Liriano continues to keep his control and is an effective 4th/5th starter.

If JB signs elsewhere they will get another 1st round pick too.

It's a bit of a tough balancing act, and I don't mind what they are doing at all. It makes sense IMO given the current state of the team.

[bluejays]

Firstly, time and time again, haven't we learned that 1st rounders are an absolute hit or miss in baseball? I don't know why the obsession more recently to get them. Granted the Jays don't have many prospects, but with baseball, development is so fickle. Look at past years' rookie of the year prospects and see how very often they just fall off the map. We have some very good assets like Tulo, JD, starting pitching in general, Travis, and yes, even Martin, all of which could net a decent hull if you want to, but why would you just want to stockpile guys in hopes they become something? The team is still competitive and they need to try and add more pieces - not rebuild. The harder positions to fill they already have in place. It'd take so many years to get to this point. Rebuilding simply doesn't make sense.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by fleury

Firstly, time and time again, haven't we learned that 1st rounders are an absolute hit or miss in baseball? I don't know why the obsession more recently to get them. Granted the Jays don't have many prospects, but with baseball, development is so fickle. Look at past years' rookie of the year prospects and see how very often they just fall off the map. We have some very good assets like Tulo, JD, starting pitching in general, Travis, and yes, even Martin, all of which could net a decent hull if you want to, but why would you just want to stockpile guys in hopes they become something? The team is still competitive and they need to try and add more pieces - not rebuild. The harder positions to fill they already have in place. It'd take so many years to get to this point. Rebuilding simply doesn't make sense.

Because what about in 3 years when Martin and others are shells of their former selves? You can't just unconditionally reload with UFAs. Ask the Yankees who probably have more than double the resources.

Yes draft pics are hit and miss but when they hit, they are not only good for the team but they don't cost much for a few years. Having a productive player is one thing, having one that doesn't cost anything is many factors better.

[Cappy]

It was well known that the jays were still in on EE after signing Morales. So the two weren't mutually exclusive thus they don't need to be compared ad nauseoum.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Cappy

It was well known that the jays were still in on EE after signing Morales. So the two weren't mutually exclusive thus they don't need to be compared ad nauseoum.

I'll see what I can find to support this, but I'm pretty sure the most reliable reports said there was no real interest shown by the Jays after signing Morales, just token words spoken and comments about how the door hadn't been closed etc.

But most reports had the Jays moving on when they signed Morales as they weren't going to sign him and then spend millions again on basically the same position when they had so many others to shore up.

[cross16]

For those still calling this a "debacle" of Jays management, I would hightly encourage you to read this article: http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb...s-encarnacion/

Couple nuggets:

Nov. 6 – Seeking to bring negotiations to a quick resolution, the Blue Jays break from typical negotiating practices and counter against themselves, upping their offer to $80 million over four years. A performance-based vesting option for a fifth year at $20 million, or a straight team option for $20 million with a buyout factored into the $80 million guarantee is raised. There’s no counter-offer from the Encarnacion camp, which wasn’t prepared to make a deal with free agency so near. .

Nov. 8 – The impression the Blue Jays have is that the Encarnacion camp is set on getting $100 million. There’s communication between the team and the player, underlining that the Blue Jays could move on if he doesn’t accept. They want a signal that they’re in the ballpark.
. The Encarnacion camp, despite being told dialogue with other players was set to start, doesn’t feel a divorce is imminent. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, conclude from the lack of urgency on the other side of the table that there’s at least one other team willing to be in the $80-$100 million range. Both were wrong.

Nov. 12 – The sides speak again with the Blue Jays saying the door to an Encarnacion return isn’t closed, that Justin Smoak could potentially be traded, but the $80 million offer was off the table, and creativity would be needed. The notion is raised that $90 million over four years would have gotten a deal done. The sides agree to stay in touch.

I get it sucks that EE isn't a Jay and obviously with the deal he signed with Cleveland he would have fit great but that would not have gotten it done at the time. Jays did some miscalculating for sure, but IMO this is a clear case of EE's agent failing to get his job done for his client. He tells the Jays he needed 90 million to get a deal done and then turns around and only gets his clients 65 mill guaranteed and its the Jays fault?

[TheAlpineOracle]

If the Jays wanted to move on from Edwin, I'm fine with that, but let's not pretend this wasn't a debacle. The Jays had Zero intention of resigning Edwin. They gave a veteran player who was loved by the City and wanted to be back a take it or leave it offer knowing full well he was at least going to see what was out there as he'd earned that right. When it became obvious that he may actually take the offer the Jays quickly Pulled it from the table. Meanwhile they sign Morales basically the minute free agency starts (can't remember the day, but It it was reported on day 1 he was signing in Toronto). The minute they signed Morales, there was zero chance EE was coming back. It's just not feasible with a 165M budget and so many other holes to fill, but the PR sideshow was kept alive for weeks.

If you want to move on from a player like Edwin in your organization, you just move on. You don't string your fan base along, you don't string the player along, and you don't use the media networks you own to try and make it look like you actually wanted to retain the player. You tell the player thank you for your serivice, tell the fans you are going in a new direction and you rip the bandaid off. What happened here was debacle and the type of the debacle that only seems to happen in Toronto in MLB.

From a baseball perspective, I think Morales will be a good replacement for Edwin (Smoak situation aside). Im betting Morales hits 30+ HR at Rogers Centre. I'm more concerned about the outfield than I am the DH situation.

[Roof-Daddy]

Yeah, Morales has averaged 28 HR and 100 RBI his last two seasons, in a more pitcher friendly ball park for half his games. Not really too worried about DH, and with Pearce in the fold I'm not overly worried about 1B either.

As TAO says, the OF certainly looks like a hot mess right now, and it will be interesting to see how Shatkins go about improving it.

RF - Pompey
CF - Pillar
LF - Upton (vs LHP) / Carrera (vs. RHP)

Yikes.

Sure would be nice if either Ramirez or Alford had played (and excelled) in AAA last season, but neither played AAA at all. Ramirez is slotted for AAA next season, and maybe if he lights it up we see him later in the year, but even with that slim hope something needs to be done. The free agent market is pretty ugly now too, so it likely needs to be done via trade.