11-03-2016, 08:31 PM
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#821
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In the Sin Bin
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Tied polls aren't good enough for Trump...despite what some seem to think
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11-03-2016, 08:32 PM
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#822
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: east van
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
Tied polls aren't good enough for Trump...despite what some seem to think
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whilst true it bodes ill for the stability or functionality of the next administration, what the US needs is for Trump to take such an utter beat down that the senate and congress have to recognise Clintons over whelming mandate.
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11-03-2016, 08:59 PM
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#823
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
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The crooked GOP won't want to recognize a mandate even if there is one. They will continue their BS.
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11-03-2016, 09:20 PM
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#824
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: North Vancouver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drak
The crooked GOP won't want to recognize a mandate even if there is one. They will continue their BS.
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Read a couple of articles today about how the GOP are already planning on trying to impeach Clinton if she wins.
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11-03-2016, 09:56 PM
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#825
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by direwolf
Read a couple of articles today about how the GOP are already planning on trying to impeach Clinton if she wins.
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Yep. Wasting people's money on BS witch hunts.
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11-04-2016, 08:35 AM
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#826
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The new goggles also do nothing.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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Florida decides they can make it closer.
Total Ballots cast: 5,267,750
Total Vote By Mail: 2,370,567 (45%)
Total Early Vote: 2,897.183 (55%)
Republicans: 2,093,586 (39.74%)
Democrats: 2,091,753 (39.71%)
NPA: 769,241 (20.55%)
Total Margin: GOP +0.03%
There's more than 80,000 more mail in ballots sent to Dems vs Republicans still un-returned.
__________________
Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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11-04-2016, 08:57 AM
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#827
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Virginia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by direwolf
Read a couple of articles today about how the GOP are already planning on trying to impeach Clinton if she wins.
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Who cares though? No matter what they do, it won't make Trump president, and that is the most important thing.
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11-04-2016, 09:29 AM
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#828
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Salmon with Arms
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Quote:
Originally Posted by photon
Florida decides they can make it closer.
Total Ballots cast: 5,267,750
Total Vote By Mail: 2,370,567 (45%)
Total Early Vote: 2,897.183 (55%)
Republicans: 2,093,586 (39.74%)
Democrats: 2,091,753 (39.71%)
NPA: 769,241 (20.55%)
Total Margin: GOP +0.03%
There's more than 80,000 more mail in ballots sent to Dems vs Republicans still un-returned.
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Don't forget though too, recent polling showed 90% of Democrats support boat but only 80% of republicans support Trump. Trump has the advantage in undecideds though. You can't really look at this like counting actual votes because party affiliation matters less in this election than previous
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11-04-2016, 10:21 AM
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#829
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Quote:
Originally Posted by street pharmacist
don't forget though too, recent polling showed 90% of democrats support boat but only 80% of republicans support trump. Trump has the advantage in undecideds though. You can't really look at this like counting actual votes because party affiliation matters less in this election than previous
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Boat 2016!
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11-04-2016, 10:46 AM
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#830
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The new goggles also do nothing.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
Don't forget though too, recent polling showed 90% of Democrats support boat but only 80% of republicans support Trump. Trump has the advantage in undecideds though. You can't really look at this like counting actual votes because party affiliation matters less in this election than previous
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True it's not votes, it just shows how close it is/could be. The difference in party support matters (and may even be greater if more Republican women break for Clinton).
Also polls of people who already voted say that Clinton's actually leading in the undecided group as well, so I'm generally optimistic about Florida, and if Clinton wins Florida it's pretty much over barring a bunch of other things going Trump's way.
Similar going on in NV: http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the...ly-voting-blog
Obama won independents in NV by 10% in 2012.
__________________
Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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11-04-2016, 10:47 AM
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#831
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: North Vancouver
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Trump's chances have dropped over 2 percentage points since last night, according to 538. He's now back down to 32%. Recent polling continues to show Clinton up slightly in Florida and North Carolina, and she continues to hold a 3 point lead nationally.
Hopefully these are all good signs. Obviously if she wins Florida or North Carolina, it's over for Trump. Even if she can just get Nevada, that would seriously hurt his chances. If I'm not mistaken, Trump essentially needs to sweep all of the swing states to have a chance to win, correct?
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...-forecast#plus
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11-04-2016, 10:52 AM
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#832
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Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Crowsnest Pass
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Betting odds up over 5% to 75% in last 24 hours for Clinton.
https://electionbettingodds.com/
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11-04-2016, 11:50 AM
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#833
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In the Sin Bin
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Trump basically has to run the table
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11-04-2016, 11:53 AM
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#834
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
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Good news for Clinton from PPP
New Hampshire:
Clinton +5
Nevada:
Clinton +3
Wisconsin:
Clinton +7
Pennsylvania
Clinton +4
North Carolina
Clinton +2
8:30 AM - 4 Nov 2016
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11-04-2016, 11:58 AM
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#835
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
Trump basically has to run the table
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The states aren't independant events. The run the table scenario implies false hope that he needs to when, Ohio, then win Florida, then win NC, the win NH, and then win Nevada.
When all he really needs is a polling error of 2-3% nationally. If he wins Nevada and New Hampshire he likely wins the rest of his must win states because they are highly correlated.
A polling error matching 2012 or 2000 in trumps favour puts him in the whitehouse.
That said I think GOTV efforts make a polling error in Clintons favour more likely.
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11-04-2016, 12:07 PM
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#836
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
The states aren't independant events. The run the table scenario implies false hope that he needs to when, Ohio, then win Florida, then win NC, the win NH, and then win Nevada.
When all he really needs is a polling error of 2-3% nationally. If he wins Nevada and New Hampshire he likely wins the rest of his must win states because they are highly correlated.
A polling error matching 2012 or 2000 in trumps favour puts him in the whitehouse.
That said I think GOTV efforts make a polling error in Clintons favour more likely.
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Its a figure of speech...everything has to go right for him on election day
that better? He is basically down by 3 goals with 4 mins left in the third period
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11-04-2016, 12:15 PM
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#838
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
Its a figure of speech...everything has to go right for him on election day
that better? He is basically down by 3 goals with 4 mins left in the third period
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I disagree with you charterizing the race as almost over. 1/3 to 1/5 chance of trump winning in my opinion would be much more realistic.
Run the table, everything go right or down 3 with for minutes to play all seem to me like 1/100 shots which I believe miss characterizes the race
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11-04-2016, 01:25 PM
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#839
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I believe in the Jays.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by direwolf
Ugh. New poll just released shows Trump up by 2 in New Hampshire.
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I'm suspicious. No prior polls of New Hampshire this cycle by that pollster plus their polls (including that one) are predominantly commissioned by Breitbart... who are practically the propaganda wing of Trumps campaign.
Now... Gravis is a decent pollster, but I'd almost consider anything they do exclusive to Breitbart to be a quasi-internal poll. Which isn't to say that I think it's a bad poll, but I strongly suspect that if the poll were bad for Trump it wouldn't see the light of day.
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11-04-2016, 04:11 PM
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#840
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The new goggles also do nothing.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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Of course, we don’t actually know which candidate these early voters are choosing; we just know what political party they are registered to. But polls have shown that the overwhelming majority of Democrats will vote for Clinton, and the overwhelming majority of Republicans will vote for Trump. A recent CNN/ORC poll found that 93 percent of Nevada Democrats plan to vote for Hillary Clinton, and 96 percent of Nevada Republicans plan to vote for Donald Trump.
In his analysis of the state’s early voting data, reporter Jon Ralston concludes that as of Thursday night, there is now almost no way Clinton can lose Nevada.
“If Clinton holds her base here (data I have seen shows she is, and minority turnout is going up) and turnout patterns don’t dramatically shift in the last two days of early voting, she can’t lose Nevada,” he wrote on Thursday night.
This is great news for the Hillary Clinton campaign not because she needs to win Nevada, but because Donald Trump needs to win it. His pathway to victory is so narrow that losing just a single swing stage will be a crushing blow. In FiveThirtyEight’s model of the election, Donald Trump currently has a 33.5 percent chance of winning the election. But if he loses Nevada, as these early voting totals suggest he will, his chances of becoming president shrink to nine percent.
http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/nevada...ans-democrats/
__________________
Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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