2011/12 Toronto Blue Jays Off-Season

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Glorious #1

Opinion versus numbers here. You have done exactly nothing to intelligently argue my or anyone else's points.

Parallex presented the bullpen numbers and you dismissed them because you can see that Santos won't fail where Rauch did.

I will take your Morrow numbers at face value and hope he does well as the #2. In your presentation, Alvarez is young, Cecil and McGowan need to bounce back and Drabek, expected to be a stud, is nowhere.

I think the Jays failed not getting a #2 to help these guys out.

I pose a question to you or anyone. The Yankees traded Jesus Montaro for Michael Pineda. Would you, if offered, trade D'Arnald for Pineda? Pineda is exactly the kind of pitcher Toronto needs.

D'Arnald and Montaro are more-or-less the same. D'Arnald maybe a year behind.

[GirlySports]

Cecil got sent down to the minors! He totally lost his stuff, to the point he couldn't throw anymore.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

wow you guys are really optimistic. A 15 game winner that within 2 months of the following year got sent down to the minors is not a step back? Wasn't that much worse?

It's Romero and 4 question marks. If any of those question marks fails or gets injured it's going to be a very long season. Be prepared to see the bullpen throw 1000 innings.

Remember we are talking about a team that was .500. No one has said they are a contender.

All folks are saying is they have improved. Which they have.


Gone 2011

(Position players).

Aaron Hill
John Macdonald
Jose Molina
Corey Patterson (Starting LF)
Juan Rivera (DH and Fielder)

(Pitchers)

Jon Rauch
Shawn Camp
Jo-Jo Reyes (Starter) - - Started 20 games. Won 5.
Marc Rzep
Dotel
Frank Francisco

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by flambers

Remember we are talking about a team that was .500. No one has said they are a contender.

All folks are saying is they have improved. Which they have.


Gone 2011

(Position players).

Aaron Hill
John Macdonald
Jose Molina
Corey Patterson (Starting LF)
Juan Rivera (DH and Fielder)

(Pitchers)

Jon Rauch
Shawn Camp
Jo-Jo Reyes (Starter) - - Started 20 games. Won 5.
Marc Rzep
Dotel
Frank Francisco

I didn't say that you said they're a contender.
But they haven't improved, they've gone backwards. That's all I'm trying to say.

I say they'll win 75, you probably think they'll win 85. That's all we're arguing over.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I didn't say that you said they're a contender.
But they haven't improved, they've gone backwards. That's all I'm trying to say.

I say they'll win 75, you probably think they'll win 85. That's all we're arguing over.

Sure they have. Jays were .500 last season..... remember who was in the lineup on daily basis.

With Jo-Jo Reyes as part of the Starting Pitching Rotation.

Corey Patterson & Davies were two of the three fielders

Juan Rivera was the DH

Jays had a tough time "saving games"...

Where are the Jays worse from last season?

SP - Jays are better.
Position Players - Jays are better.
RP - Jays are better in my opinion with Santos as the closer.

[flames_1987]

The Jays have gone backwards? How can you go backwards when you don't lose any core pieces, add players and have the addition of having Brett Lawrie at 3rd base the entire season and Rasmus in center? Please tell me how did the Jays go backwards?!?!?

[Glorious #1]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Parallex presented the bullpen numbers and you dismissed them because you can see that Santos won't fail where Rauch did.

I will take your Morrow numbers at face value and hope he does well as the #2. In your presentation, Alvarez is young, Cecil and McGowan need to bounce back and Drabek, expected to be a stud, is nowhere.

I think the Jays failed not getting a #2 to help these guys out.

I pose a question to you or anyone. The Yankees traded Jesus Montaro for Michael Pineda. Would you, if offered, trade D'Arnald for Pineda? Pineda is exactly the kind of pitcher Toronto needs.

D'Arnald and Montaro are more-or-less the same. D'Arnald maybe a year behind.

I did not dismiss anyone regarding the bullpen as I didn't adress it. So I have no clue where you are coming from with that.

No in my presentation I argued against your point that the 2012 Blue Jays are going to be worse than the 2011 Blue Jays due to " they are going backwards" Specifically I adressed the Starting Rotation and nothing else. Again as I said before I didn't adress Drabek as I don't see him being apart of the rotation, something I clearly stated.

The Blue Jays are an improving ball club, with a very solid core and depth rushing up the pipeline.

I would not of traded D'Arnaud* for Pineda. As I feel and as his numbers suggest, that he benefited from pitching at Safeco Field. Home: 5-4, 2.92 ERA in 12 starts (25 ER). Away: 4-6, 4.40 ERA in 16 starts (46 ER). That being said I believe in his potential but his numbers are deceiving.

Comparing Montero to D'Arnaud is hard as they played at two different levels of ball, however long term I don't see Montero as a catcher. A DH perhaps as his defence is sub par. Travis from most account plays very solid defence. I believe both have power, Montero more so but Travis will hit for better average and do a better job at producing in the majors.

Since both are still prospects it is mild speculation.



*How his name is correctly spelt.

[GirlySports]

You can't just address the current starting pitching and just conveniently leave off a guy who everyone thought that by this time would be in the rotation and then say nobody regressed. He regressed right out of the majors!

Solid core rushing up the pipeline, I'll have to believe it when I see it. Drabek and Snider were probably two of those guys rushing up the pipeline and they've failed.

I don't like where the team is going but that's just me.
I realize the team has a very high ceiling but has alot of question marks. I hope you guys are right.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Parallex presented the bullpen numbers and you dismissed them because you can see that Santos won't fail where Rauch did.

Rauch being 5 years old than Santos might have something to do with that.

I pose a question to you or anyone. The Yankees traded Jesus Montaro for Michael Pineda. Would you, if offered, trade D'Arnald for Pineda? Pineda is exactly the kind of pitcher Toronto needs.

D'Arnaud and Montaro are more-or-less the same. D'Arnaud maybe a year behind.

D'Arnaud and Montero are not the same. They might call Montero a catcher, but the guy will be a DH with-in two seasons in the MLB. He'll still rake, but that significantly hurts his value. D'Arnaud should still be an above average hitter, but he's supposed to be elite defensively at the most important position on the diamond.

Pineda is not without his question marks - he had a tremendous start, but his numbers dipped significantly in the second half. I've read several places online where people in front offices were thinking it could be his two-pitch arsenal getting figured out.

[Jason14h]

I don't understand the argument that Cecil (and a few others) was bad last year and could be bad again, so that is a step back...

If he was already bad last year, and he's still on the team, at worst its a parallel move..

To take a step back you need to have gotten worse. Which starter do you think is going to do worse, or be worse? You think whoever the 5th starter is going to be worse then Jo Jo Reyes?

Do you think the bullpen will blow MORE saves?

Now they may finish with a worse record because lots of AL teams have improved, but their offseason moves are not taking a step backwards.

[Glorious #1]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

You can't just address the current starting pitching and just conveniently leave off a guy who everyone thought that by this time would be in the rotation and then say nobody regressed. He regressed right out of the majors!

Solid core rushing up the pipeline, I'll have to believe it when I see it. Drabek and Snider were probably two of those guys rushing up the pipeline and they've failed.

I don't like where the team is going but that's just me.
I realize the team has a very high ceiling but has alot of question marks. I hope you guys are right.

Are you kidding me? Seriously, you are like talking to a brick wall.

Drabek will not be in the starting rotation, yes he has yet to reach his potential. He may in fact never do so. He hasn't regressed as you can't compare 3 starts he made in September two years ago to the 11 he made at the start of last year. As neither were anything worth noting.

But honestly I'm done with you. Our prospect system as it stands is highly thought of. I could list the notable off but what do you care you are a brick wall.

But here do some reading, http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...2/2612728.html. Maybe if you keep up with it you'll actually be able to make a sensical argument.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

D'Arnald and Montaro are more-or-less the same. D'Arnald maybe a year behind.

... eh? I wouldn't say that. Montaro is way better with the stick. I'm told that his D is pretty bad whereas D'Arnald is supposed to to a plus defender. Really hard to compare the two.

I do think you're underselling the pitching a bit. It's pretty good, not "competative in the ALE good" right now but Morrow is a quality Mid-Rotation starter who could still be more then that (So I wouldn't call him a "question mark"). I will conceed that after those two there are nothing but question marks. I think eventually enough of the current question marks and high milb guys will pan out to create a potent pitching staff but it's not there yet.

They're still better then the Orioles though. Truthfully I wouldn't be surprised if the Jays were able to finish third in the division... fourth is the more likely finish (Rays have just unreal pitching even if I find their bats lacking besides Longoria) but I could see third. Boston and NYY are going to be the tough nuts to crack without spending more on roster payroll.

[flames_1987]

Brandon Morrow took a step back last year and is a question mark.

The Jays were better off with Arron Hill.

The Baltimore Orioles will be better next year with their "young" rotation

The Jays should have signed upgrades in Bedard and Harang

Encarnacion is horrible

The Jays have regressed from last year

There is no solid core or one rushing up the pipeline.

The earliest Jays will contend in a perfect world, if every single thing goes right (the funny part of this being that you don't take into account any type of trade, prospect or free agent signing) by is 2015.


I encourage anyone who would make these statements to actually dive into statistics if they want to represent their opinions and actually encourage dialogue instead of making statements then leaving them alone when faced with actual statistics that prove them wrong.

[The Big Chill]

Originally Posted by Glorious #1

Are you kidding me? Seriously, you are like talking to a brick wall.

Drabek will not be in the starting rotation, yes he has yet to reach his potential. He may in fact never do so. He hasn't regressed as you can't compare 3 starts he made in September two years ago to the 11 he made at the start of last year. As neither were anything worth noting.

But honestly I'm done with you. Our prospect system as it stands is highly thought of. I could list the notable off but what do you care you are a brick wall.

No need to get rude, she just has a different opinion then yours.

I believe that we will be marginally better this year, but I still see a few spots that could be considered a regression. Encarnacion was hitting the best he has ever hit in the majors last season. I think it is reasonable to expect his #s to drop, which leaves a pretty large hole in the middle of this lineup.

We also talked about Lawrie possibly regressing a bit as opposing pitchers start to collect a decent scouting report on him, combined with the fact that this will be his first full year.

I have no idea what to expect from Arencebia, as last year his average was atrocious but his production was solid. It seems reasonable that he could up his average a bit while maybe his RBIs and HR could remain the same or go down.

Snider has such a nice swing, but he has yet to be able to put more then 2 good weeks together at a time, so he remains a bit of a wild card.

On the other hand I have the expectation that Morrow, Rasmus, Lind and Kelly Johnson will have better seasons then last year. I also think our 'Pen will be better and hang on to a few more wins for us.

I agree with you in that our prospect pool is great, but there are a lot of question marks on this years roster and I believe that we will end up it 4th spot again. That being said, I am excited for the upcoming season because with all the young guys we have around there is always a chance that they could develop more and faster then we ever expected.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

I don't understand the argument that Cecil (and a few others) was bad last year and could be bad again, so that is a step back...

If he was already bad last year, and he's still on the team, at worst its a parallel move..

To take a step back you need to have gotten worse. Which starter do you think is going to do worse, or be worse? You think whoever the 5th starter is going to be worse then Jo Jo Reyes?

Do you think the bullpen will blow MORE saves?

Now they may finish with a worse record because lots of AL teams have improved, but their offseason moves are not taking a step backwards.

Not necessarily, you can take a step back by not getting better as was planned. I may be looking at this differently than you and maybe incorrectly. To me if a pitcher was expected to be at a certain place in X number of years and is not, then that's a regression. It's a zero-sum game to me. So let's say Cecil by 2012 was expected to be a #3 and Drabek a #4. Right now Cecil is coming off a bad year and is barely a #3 and Drabek isn't even in the rotation. To me that's a setback not parallel. There has to be a goal, an expectation. Because by holding on to players expecting them to be at X, you're not using another player that could be at X already.

We'll do an experiment now. Where do you expect D'Arnald to be in 2014? I would expect him to be the starting catcher and hit 6th or 7th in the lineup right? If by 2014 he hasn't even made the majors yet, I don't think you can say that the Blue Jays have not regressed because D'Arnald has never taken an at-bat so they're losing nothing to begin with. Every great prospect that flames out hurts the team because they could have gotten someone else and not wasted that time and resources.

That's my position with Cecil. I expected him to have a better 2011 than 2010 and he didn't. Now where is he? That's a setback in my books. And if he fails again and he's out of the rotation again, that's failure right? Your example of Jo-Jo Reyes is a good one. The Jays could have picked up a quality arm in 2011 instead of using him.. that's 20-25 wasted starts. If one of the the 5 this year is as bad as he was (it could happen!) then again that's 20 wasted starts that could have been prevented by picking up a qualify FA. How many 20 wasted starts can the Blue Jays afford year after year as prospect after prospect flames out?

[cross16]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Not necessarily, you can take a step back by not getting better as was planned. I may be looking at this differently than you and maybe incorrectly. To me if a pitcher was expected to be at a certain place in X number of years and is not, then that's a regression. It's a zero-sum game to me. So let's say Cecil by 2012 was expected to be a #3 and Drabek a #4. Right now Cecil is coming off a bad year and is barely a #3 and Drabek isn't even in the rotation. To me that's a setback not parallel. There has to be a goal, an expectation. Because by holding on to players expecting them to be at X, you're not using another player that could be at X already.

We'll do an experiment now. Where do you expect D'Arnald to be in 2014? I would expect him to be the starting catcher and hit 6th or 7th in the lineup right? If by 2014 he hasn't even made the majors yet, I don't think you can say that the Blue Jays have not regressed because D'Arnald has never taken an at-bat so they're losing nothing to begin with. Every great prospect that flames out hurts the team because they could have gotten someone else and not wasted that time and resources.

That's my position with Cecil. I expected him to have a better 2011 than 2010 and he didn't. Now where is he? That's a setback in my books. And if he fails again and he's out of the rotation again, that's failure right? Your example of Jo-Jo Reyes is a good one. The Jays could have picked up a quality arm in 2011 instead of using him.. that's 20-25 wasted starts. If one of the the 5 this year is as bad as he was (it could happen!) then again that's 20 wasted starts that could have been prevented by picking up a qualify FA. How many 20 wasted starts can the Blue Jays afford year after year as prospect after prospect flames out?

Very flawed IMO.

By your analysis the Jays, or Pirates for that matter, shoudl have given up on Bautista because he was never going to be more than a role player and he should have been marked as a "failure" because he had not reached full time playing level. Everyone develops differently and at diferent rates. Even Halladay had to go back down to the Minors and change his pitching motion and style before he came back up and became the "Doc".

Your also assuming that it's the Jays goal to compete every year for the playoffs, and I would disagree. The Jays are trying to build into a team that can competet year in and year out and in order to do so you can't jump at that one FA or go out and fill every hole every off season. This is not the Red Sox, Yankees or Tiger this is a team that needs to build from within or they won't have that long term success. I would rather a team compete year in a year out that see the playoffs one time, and then be back down to 4th again which is to me exactly what would happen if they reached at the FA or forced their hand.

YOu also present this as a case that the Jays should have done more this offseason, so other than Fielder what should they have done? What #2 starter did they miss out on? To me the Jays did exactly what they should have done this offseason. they listenend and tried to make a deal for a starter, but instead when the economical route and made their bullpen more equipped to handle a weaker rotation.

[GirlySports]

I have not assumed that the Blue Jays goal is to compete every year. Getting FAs doesn't mean competing immediately. This is getting young team-building free agents at the beginning of the year, not a wild and crazy rent-a-player at the deadline. Even with Fielder they would not have competed this year but the outlook would have looked better I think with 1B solidified and a fantastic 3-4 punch.

The Pirates did indeed give up on Bautista and that's going to happen from time to time. But there still has to be a basis of evaluating players. Do we agree that if Snider plays badly this year that we have to give up on him? How long can we keep him? A decision has to be made at what point to give up (2012?, 2013?, 2014?), can't hum and haw forever in fear that he goes to another team and becomes a stud.


As for #2 starters, since the FA pool was poor, I think the Jays missed out on a couple of trades. Latos which I believe they were in for but came up short which was too bad. I really would have liked Gio Gonzalez as the #2. Would have fit in nicely with Morrow, Alvarez and Cecil/McGowan.

Failing trades as last resort I would have gotten Bedard to start behind Morrow and cover for those 20 crappy 5th starter starts we seem to have every year and add a bit of stability.

[Gozer]

I agree with GS that Cecil has been disappointing relative to my expectations, and that is a very valid method of evaluation.
It is my understanding that Cecil's problem was with physical fitness, he lost his fastball and was sent down because he wasn't putting the work in at the gym. That bodes well in the sense that I expect that could be improved and, if it is, could put him back on track as a MLB contributor. I also think it is indicative of a guy that will be out of the organization in the near future - a storyline to watch this season.

I also agree with GS and Parallex with perspective on the bullpen: it's similar to last year's and very difficult to project beyond that.

I disagree with most other things GS has said though. Throw over two hundred million at a guy to become a bubble team? Morrow is a question mark? You wouldn't be saying that if the Jays had traded for these guys:

Originally Posted by Tao of Stieb

Morrow - 10.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 2.94 SO/BB
Gonzalez - 8.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 2.16 SO/BB
Latos - 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.98 SO/BB

Reyes and the other slug they had the previous year taking up space were placeholders for the young pitchers we have coming up, which are numerous. Hutchinson and Drabek are legitimate candidates for the rotation this year; I think dismissing Drabek as a prospect because of his struggles last season is rather fickle. Careers aren't anywhere near as linear as we seem to believe.

[zukes]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I pose a question to you or anyone. The Yankees traded Jesus Montaro for Michael Pineda. Would you, if offered, trade D'Arnald for Pineda? Pineda is exactly the kind of pitcher Toronto needs.

D'Arnald and Montaro are more-or-less the same. D'Arnald maybe a year behind.

What?!?!?

First, it's D'Arnaud. Second, they are nowhere near the same. Montero is a terrible to below average catcher defensively. He is a DH in the next year or two, if not sooner...maybe a 1B. D'Arnuad is considered an above average defesive catcher with potential to be more. His bat projects well as a catcher...but he is not in Montero's league as a hitter.

Depending on what Seattle wanted, maybe D'Arnaud would have been enough for Pineda, but catcher's who can hit and play the position are rare, so I am not so sure AA would have wanted to do that for a pitcher, while having an amazing rookie season and potentially an ace, could just as easily see his warts do him in.

[zukes]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Cecil got sent down to the minors! He totally lost his stuff, to the point he couldn't throw anymore.

Wrong again, he lost velocity, not stuff. Supposedly, he took conditioning seriously this off-season and is down a bunch of bulk. Cecil, two years ago was 15-7 with a decent 4.22 ERA. This year he was 4-11 with a medicore 4.73 ERA. Keeping in mind the early season velocity troubles that only partially corrected themselves later on, looking deeper at the numbers you can make a case that he basically had the same season.

WHIP: both years 1.326
H/9: 9.1 (2010) 8.9 (2011)
BB/9: 2.8 (2010) 3.1 (2011)
SO/9: 6.1 (2010) 6.3 (2011)

Really the only difference in the years was the loss of velocity that caused the following:

HR/9: 0.9 (2010) 1.6 (2011)
WAR: 2.0 (2010) 1.2 (2011)

The numbers tell the story of a guy who lost velocity and if he gets that back, due to his age, should actually improve from the 2010 numbers.