2023 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[howard_the_duck]

Definitely not won in a year. Had I been a betting person this was the season I’d have said Varsho would have had more value. I think Moreno has legitimate best catcher in baseball potential (maybe 2nd behind Rutschman) so fear it may only look worse moving forward.

[Jiggy_12]

The Jays have traded a lot of prospects away over the past 3-4 seasons that have completely fizzled or diminished. Then there has been the odd one like Moreno that has excelled.

We tend to always focus on and remember the ones that turn out this way but it’s important to keep in mind the prospects that disappeared. Austin Martin?

And let’s not forget the Jays basically had to trade a catcher, we were very very deep at the position so it made a boatload of sense to trade from C to address OF.

Things didn’t pan out this year the way we hoped with Kirk being mostly bad, Jansen being mostly hurt, Moreno being better than expected, Gurriel totally rebounding, and Varsho being a little worse than expected. Literally 5/5 outcomes worked against us in order for this trade to look bad.

In a vacuum I think you make that deal every time

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Jiggy_12

The Jays have traded a lot of prospects away over the past 3-4 seasons that have completely fizzled or diminished. Then there has been the odd one like Moreno that has excelled.

We tend to always focus on and remember the ones that turn out this way but it’s important to keep in mind the prospects that disappeared. Austin Martin?

And let’s not forget the Jays basically had to trade a catcher, we were very very deep at the position so it made a boatload of sense to trade from C to address OF.

Things didn’t pan out this year the way we hoped with Kirk being mostly bad, Jansen being mostly hurt, Moreno being better than expected, Gurriel totally rebounding, and Varsho being a little worse than expected. Literally 5/5 outcomes worked against us in order for this trade to look bad.

In a vacuum I think you make that deal every time

I disagree. Moreno always was the future catcher of the Jays but Kirk's amazing season and Jansen's hot return last September put a bias on what they could be. Myself thought Kirk was everything the team needed but behind the scenes Jansen was likely a leader. What was clear though was there was uncertainty with each of the three catchers and even at the time all three should have been kept to play it out and see if there was more than one season's sample. Moreno's trajectory was high as he was moving up the ranks better than the other prospects given as an example. Varsho was cost controlled and his advanced stats were appealing. Jays management philosophically said they wanted a defense first OF which was a wrong move. Varsho's batting numbers weren't great but the thought was he's a LH batter and those would be great with the banning of the shift (again, a false theory). Gurriel was injured a few times but his young potential was there. Atkins simply gave in too much even at the time to get an advance stats darling in Varsho. But their premises were generally a miss (their new wall giving odd bounces, and LHBs being huge to the game). Fan's bought into the advanced stats media angle but in many ways Varsho came with uncertainty. The tradeoff was he came with 5 years of contract certainty in exchange for two young guys. Atkins even at the time gave up too much. It turned out bad which made it worse.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Kasi

We’ll see trades generally aren’t won or lost in the first year. That they’re as close as they are after as poor a hitting season Varsho has had is something at least. I do agree that having that catcher especially with Jansen out would be huge. But they bet on catchers they had over Moreno and well Jansen got hurt and Kirk has had a mediocre year. Who knows what will happen next year.

The argument that Jansen was injured is the same year after year. He's always injured. Kirks was unforseen though lesson learned - if a guy is clearly out of shape, perhaps it's not worth investing in or betting on him. Both these factors are exactly why the Jays should've held on to all three of them for an extra season to see what was there. Jansen will be injured in future seasons - that's a certainty at this point. Kirk is built the way he is and probably won't change. At this point I suggest moving on from both.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Jays management philosophically said they wanted a defense first OF which was a wrong move.

I don't agree with this statement.

The D first OF has allowed this to be the best defensive team in the league with the best pitching (Which is impacted hugely on D - Runs allowed and keeping pitch counts down)

The issue is a lot of hitters have performed well under expectations.

The strategy was correct - The players execution was poor.

Just look at Varsho - Hitting in a pitchers stadium his OPS + over the last 2 seasons was 102 and 108. Not elite but fine. He was moving to a hitters park and had the shift banned. He was also entering his 3rd full season which is usually when a hitter takes off.

Was it unreasonable to think a OPS+ of 110 should have been expected?

Instead he has a OPS+ of 83.

His WAR is still 3.4. With an OPS+ of 110 he would have a WAR around 5-5.5. That would have put him in the top 15 of ALL OF MLB

With his horrible hitting he is still 73rd in MLB for WAR.

He has the potential to be an absolutely elite ballplayer all around if he can even hit above average. His baserunning and defense is elite. He has a baseball mind - Even when he bunts.

He just cant get around on the high fastball (Like every Jay) and for some reason lost all this power (Like every Jay)

When all the Jays have the same hole in their swing and have seen their power drop 30% it is no longer a coincidence, its correlation

[bluejays]

I can buy into a lot of what you’re saying Jason. But I don’t think even at the time the trade was worth it to give up Moreno. He was escalating super fast and showed all the tools. Given his position scarcity alone he should’ve been valued high on the Jays or as a trade chip (if absolutely needed). Not for a non-elite outfielder. The fact both of them were included in the deal was a killer. I said so at the time and feel that way today. I like Varsho the person. More are needed like that. But as a trade it was off from the start.

[browna]

Originally Posted by Jiggy_12

Jays got #1 outcome out of 8 possibilities tonight

https://twitter.com/user/status/1705236227425800624

Back to the fun stuff, I assume a Mariners win is what we’re looking for tonight?

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by bluejays

I can buy into a lot of what you’re saying Jason. But I don’t think even at the time the trade was worth it to give up Moreno. He was escalating super fast and showed all the tools. Given his position scarcity alone he should’ve been valued high on the Jays or as a trade chip (if absolutely needed). Not for a non-elite outfielder. The fact both of them were included in the deal was a killer. I said so at the time and feel that way today. I like Varsho the person. More are needed like that. But as a trade it was off from the start.

It was clear we had to move a catcher. I just never thought it’d be Moreno short of a can’t miss package.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by browna

Back to the fun stuff, I assume a Mariners win is what we’re looking for tonight?

I think you want the Rangers to win all their games left against Seattle (6). That would put Seattle at 3-6 in their remaining games at best. Meaning two more wins by Toronto and Seattle can't catch them.

I'd rather see Seattle get in over Houston or Texas, but I don't think that happens.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

It was clear we had to move a catcher. I just never thought it’d be Moreno short of a can’t miss package.

Yeah. That’s a better way of putting it. I understood they needed to mature a bit and thought they’d go for a can’t miss person (if there is such a thing). We have to look at things from at the time and where prospects were rated. Where they are today is just fodder for what could’ve been, but the signs with a lot of players the Jays had were fairly high. Him being the highest. Atkins has shown he’s willing the dump his prospects if push comes to shove and the results have been mediocre for the Jays. At this point I’m very indifferent if he comes back. He’s found some diamonds but from a development perspective and from a trade perspective he’s been mediocre.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by browna

Back to the fun stuff, I assume a Mariners win is what we’re looking for tonight?

Doesn't seem to matter either way:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1705426071762481544

[Enoch Root]

Great win yesterday - would really solidify their position if they can get 2 out of 3 in the Trop.

Bit nervous about Ryu going up against the Rays, TBH. Also, I really wish they would separate Ryu and Kikuchi - you have 2 left-handed junk throwers, don't put them back to back, stick someone like Gausman in between them. (I know, it's a bit late in the year to worry about that.)

[flamingred89]

A win today puts the Jays odds at 95%?! That's awesome and says everything you need to say. Just keep winning Jays. I'd love to bury some demons at the Trop with a big series win/sweep. It would really help the confidence in the wild card series if they end up facing the Rays.

[Whynotnow]

Lead off home run, two walks, 24 pitches already. Ruh oh

[Inferno]

I would have had somebody warming up after the first batter.

[flamingred89]

Well. That'll probably do it. Ryu struggling big time.

[Whynotnow]

4-0 now, two home runs. Probably gotta think about tomorrow now, unlikely to win this one.

[Machiavelli]

Horrible start yikes

^ and I agree, just manage this one

[bluejays]

Ryu doesn’t have it today. His fastball is too slow and it’s not in the right place. Dump him after this inning.

[Whynotnow]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Ryu doesn’t have it today. His fastball is too slow and it’s not in the right place. Dump him after this inning.

I don’t know, I think you just get 100 pitches out of him and save arms. I hate to concede early but you gotta think about the next day here. Can’t afford to burn arms when I would imaging your win percent sits in single digits right now.