It only makes sense in retrospect, but when you look at it from before this event and ask "what can we blow up or destroy that will signal our ability to do this", why pick Nordstream? It's so damned valuable to Russia.
Blow up a couple of those seized superyachts for example, they're spectacular targets.
There are probably thousands of other options. And why blow up both pipes, if the point was to demonstrate ability? Wouldn't just blowing up one of the two pipes achieved all the same things?
Another thing that kind of goes against the theory that Russia chose a soft target to show that they can hit EU and NATO infrastructure is that predictably, the area is now at heightened alert making future attacks more difficult. Sweden and Norway both have their armed forces protecting the Baltic pipeline now, and sites on land are also being made more secure. Russia basically gave up the element of surprise for something that has relatively little reward for them.
Although Russia making grave strategical errors and failing to predict outcomes isn't exactly inconsistent with current events either. If Russia did do it, it would really speak to how desperate and out of good ideas they are at this point.
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
It only makes sense in retrospect, but when you look at it from before this event and ask "what can we blow up or destroy that will signal our ability to do this", why pick Nordstream? It's so damned valuable to Russia.
Blow up a couple of those seized superyachts for example, they're spectacular targets.
There are probably thousands of other options. And why blow up both pipes, if the point was to demonstrate ability? Wouldn't just blowing up one of the two pipes achieved all the same things?
The point of blowing up Nordstream is simple, it was paid for more by Germany than Russia, Nordstream is not a Russian pipe really, it's a German pipe, it was a message to Germany and Germany alone.
Russia has plenty of ways of getting gas to Europe if sanctions are lifted but in Putins mind the only way to do that is to scare Germany into submission and blowing up the only gas lines that were paid for by Germany to get gas solely to Germany are a great way to do that, Putin knows full well if things go back to 'normal' Germany will rebuild the pipeline, not Russia, Germany.
Where Putin is wrong obviously is the idea that things can and will return to normal ever, but he's desperate and losing
The Following User Says Thank You to afc wimbledon For This Useful Post:
Gazprom also has a potential significant liability for not meeting their contracts. They tried to declare force majeure to release themselves from their commitments to supply gas, citing sanctions. That's also why they've made a big fuss about the turbine being repaired in Canada and various small leaks. Essentially they've been trying to make it look like anything other than the Russian government's whims are what's stopping gas flows in order to avoid having to pay penalties. Now with the pipelines being damaged, they're probably on stronger legal footing to not be liable for the lack of deliveries.
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to opendoor For This Useful Post:
Man, I've become way too Americanized. Every time I see blowing up Nordstream mentioned in this thread my immediate thought is, "customers will just go to Dillards or Sak's Fifth Avenue." The impact of advertising on our consciousness is profound.
Back to our regularly scheduled war.
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Lanny_McDonald For This Useful Post:
It only makes sense in retrospect, but when you look at it from before this event and ask "what can we blow up or destroy that will signal our ability to do this", why pick Nordstream? It's so damned valuable to Russia.
Blow up a couple of those seized superyachts for example, they're spectacular targets.
There are probably thousands of other options. And why blow up both pipes, if the point was to demonstrate ability? Wouldn't just blowing up one of the two pipes achieved all the same things?
Nord Stream 1 and 2 is much more valuable to Germany and Europe then it is to Russia. It also affirms that Russia will not be able to just suddenly flip a switch to save Germany this winter.
If you follow Russia state media and propaganda it will make total sense on why Nord Stream 1 / 2 were blown up. Surely you remember the turbine shenanigans?
This is how russian state media reports see 6:30
Economic collapse of Germany if no gas supplies from Russia.
How do you think Russian state media is reporting the leaks? It is not "Russia is under attack" it is "wow such an unfortunate accident, sucks hard for Germany that will freeze to death"
The point of blowing up Nordstream is simple, it was paid for more by Germany than Russia, Nordstream is not a Russian pipe really, it's a German pipe, it was a message to Germany and Germany alone.
Russia has plenty of ways of getting gas to Europe if sanctions are lifted but in Putins mind the only way to do that is to scare Germany into submission and blowing up the only gas lines that were paid for by Germany to get gas solely to Germany are a great way to do that, Putin knows full well if things go back to 'normal' Germany will rebuild the pipeline, not Russia, Germany.
Where Putin is wrong obviously is the idea that things can and will return to normal ever, but he's desperate and losing
Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor
Gazprom also has a potential significant liability for not meeting their contracts. They tried to declare force majeure to release themselves from their commitments to supply gas, citing sanctions. That's also why they've made a big fuss about the turbine being repaired in Canada and various small leaks. Essentially they've been trying to make it look like anything other than the Russian government's whims are what's stopping gas flows in order to avoid having to pay penalties. Now with the pipelines being damaged, they're probably on stronger legal footing to not be liable for the lack of deliveries.
The thing with these theories is why go all the way to the border of Danish territorial waters to do it? They could have had the same effect by destroying the pipe further upstream and not take the big risk of being caught red handed. The risks just don't seem proportionate to the rewards.
The location of the blasts was extremely inconvenient for the Russians. If they chose that location, there would have to be a bigger payoff for them IMO.
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
The thing with these theories is why go all the way to the border of Danish territorial waters to do it? They could have had the same effect by destroying the pipe further upstream and not take the big risk of being caught red handed. The risks just don't seem proportionate to the rewards.
The location of the blasts was extremely inconvenient for the Russians. If they chose that location, there would have to be a bigger payoff for them IMO.
there was absolutely no risk of being caught though, this was as simple an operation as possible, a couple of divers and a bit of Semtex, nothing more, the further away from Russia the better from Russia's point of view, it sends the message they aren't afraid to pull off this kind of operation in Norwegian waters while still allowing them to pretend it was nothing to do with them, it also reduces any outrage in Russia itself, their military already looks utterly incompetent, you don't really want a pipeline blown up in your own waters as your official story then would be you allowed foreign divers to destroy stuff in your own back yard, not a story Russia wants to push right now, this allows Russia to not have to be outraged at its waters being violated
The thing with these theories is why go all the way to the border of Danish territorial waters to do it? They could have had the same effect by destroying the pipe further upstream and not take the big risk of being caught red handed. The risks just don't seem proportionate to the rewards.
The location of the blasts was extremely inconvenient for the Russians. If they chose that location, there would have to be a bigger payoff for them IMO.
International waters is international waters. They don't care about getting caught which should be blatantly obvious by now, this isn't about fooling Europe into who did it, it's about sending a message to Germany and Europe.
A country that uses window jumping as an MO doesn't care about getting caught, it wants to be caught
People are making the fallacy of trying to understand Putin's actions under normal logic when they need to be understood from the perspective of a despot trying to keep a stranglehold on its population.
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Firebot For This Useful Post:
The thing with these theories is why go all the way to the border of Danish territorial waters to do it? They could have had the same effect by destroying the pipe further upstream and not take the big risk of being caught red handed. The risks just don't seem proportionate to the rewards.
The location of the blasts was extremely inconvenient for the Russians. If they chose that location, there would have to be a bigger payoff for them IMO.
We don't know enough to speculate on this. Maybe it's related to shipping lanes, maybe underwater geography, maybe they came from Kaliningrad, maybe it was just conveniate for other reasons we dontknow about.
We're about to see another Russian defeat in Lyman, about 1500-3500 Russian troops are effectively encircled there with only one road out remaining that is under constant Ukrainian bombardment. We'll see what morale is like, how Putin's "no retreat" law impacts the conscripts, and whether Russia is actually deploying "blocker" units to force fights/shoot retreating troops.
So how far is Russia from declaring "total war"? Is that even a thing anymore? Seems like they tried to take Ukraine while still maintaining somewhat similar lives for their citizens. How on Earth did they think that would be possible...is beyond me.
I don't know who this guy is but I think everyone would feel a lot better, even him, if he just suited up and went to the frontline. That way he can lead by example and when he gets killed or captured, one less ideologue pressing for this madness to continue.
So how far is Russia from declaring "total war"? Is that even a thing anymore?
If Russia were to engage in total war against Ukraine that would mean nuking it into oblivion, and I'm not sure Russia or anyone else would survive such a thing.
Ugh. There are reports that Russians are trying to press-gang Ukrainians remaining in the occupied areas into fighting against their countrymen. How horrifying is that. I know a lot will choose to die rather than do that, but then who protects their families if they are dead? Just a terrible situation to be in.
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
The Following User Says Thank You to FlamesAddiction For This Useful Post:
Ugh. There are reports that Russians are trying to press-gang Ukrainians remaining in the occupied areas into fighting against their countrymen. How horrifying is that. I know a lot will choose to die rather than do that, but then who protects their families if they are dead? Just a terrible situation to be in.
Sounds like a good way to get shot in the back if you're a Russian officer.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterJoji
Johnny eats garbage and isn’t 100% committed.
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to nik- For This Useful Post:
