Russia invades Ukraine

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

But that's not how electricity pricing works. The price for electricity is set by the marginal kilowatt. That means if you're using a 10% mix of gas, or 50% mix, the price is mainly set by the price of gas right now. You pay the windmill guy the same price for his electricity as you pay the gas turbine guy. It doesn't matter what's generating it. The Windmill guy is just making waaaaaaaaaaaay more money because he's not paying much for the electricity he's selling.


Natural gas is a global commodity, so German production would have no impact on their pricing unless a) it was massive enough to change the global market, or b) they nationalized it. There's not enough there to make a difference here

/Tldr The unreliable source right now IS natural gas and it's almost entirely responsible for the energy costs in Germany.

Okay - so take away natural gas and where are you? Without baseload capabilities. This should not be an argument of cost - the issue with Germany is they failed to invest in fossil fuels to ensure their energy security as a result of the ESG movement pressuring governments into adopting alternatives without considering mix. The whole point to the argument is that if Germany and Europe in general had acknowledged that natural gas was going to be part of the mix going forward and invested into it, costs would be lower. Instead they made the knee jerk reaction based off of public opinion rather than what energy experts were saying for the past decade and we are now in this mess. To argue natural gas is the unreliable source right now fails to acknowledge how and why we are in this mess.

This is even before considering that over 50% of German homes are heated by natural gas or oil and the result of a transition to heating via energy would have a massive toll on the grid. What possible way are they going to make up that baseload requirement if its not natural gas and nuclear?

To loop this back to the Ukraine/Russia discussion if Nordstream 1/2 is truly as damaged as they say, there is no hope on fixing this for the winter. Its an interesting change of power dynamics as Germany no longer can look directly to Russia to stop their people from freezing to death if its a particularly cold winter. They need to go through Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, etc. Russia has lost some negotiating leverage when it comes to the global energy stage.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Leondros

To loop this back to the Ukraine/Russia discussion if Nordstream 1/2 is truly as damaged as they say, there is no hope on fixing this for the winter. Its an interesting change of power dynamics as Germany no longer can look directly to Russia to stop their people from freezing to death if its a particularly cold winter. They need to go through Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, etc. Russia has lost some negotiating leverage when it comes to the global energy stage.

I don't think it makes much of a difference at all. Nord Stream 2 was never even finished, so that one's irrelevant. Nord Stream 1 could supply gas, but Russia stopped that a month ago after several months of running it at 20% capacity.

Basically, no one was relying on either of those pipelines to supply gas this year. I suppose Russia could have tried to use Nord Stream 1 as a carrot to get concessions, but to what end? No one other than Germany was going to be influenced by that.

[calculoso]

Hilarious back and forth on a Russian talk show - in Russian but with subtitles. Watch until end

https://twitter.com/user/status/1574865224108220423

[CroFlames]

Can someone in O&G confirm or deny if Canada and the US could supply natural gas to the EU on a temporary basis? Like, could we ramp up production now and send it over on tankers in time for winter?

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Can someone in O&G confirm or deny if Canada and the US could supply natural gas to the EU on a temporary basis? Like, could we ramp up production now and send it over on tankers in time for winter?

Not in O&G, but that answer is not really. Canada has no LNG export facilities, so we're not an option. The US does, and they're selling some to Europe. But Europe doesn't have the regasification capacity to replace Russian gas with LNG at this point.

Basically, Russian gas has always been cheaper than LNG, so Europe never really invested in the infrastructure for large-scale imports.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by calculoso

Hilarious back and forth on a Russian talk show - in Russian but with subtitles. Watch until end

https://twitter.com/user/status/1574865224108220423

Just wanted to point out that the subtitles are fake/satire, for anyone not aware.

[Fuzz]

Did he actually get drafted, or is it all made up?

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I don't think it makes much of a difference at all. Nord Stream 2 was never even finished, so that one's irrelevant. Nord Stream 1 could supply gas, but Russia stopped that a month ago after several months of running it at 20% capacity.

Basically, no one was relying on either of those pipelines to supply gas this year. I suppose Russia could have tried to use Nord Stream 1 as a carrot to get concessions, but to what end? No one other than Germany was going to be influenced by that.

My point is if you can get Germany on your side the EU is far more likely to capitulate. That could have been an important carrot in the middle of winter.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Did he actually get drafted, or is it all made up?

No, they're just talking about mobilization in general.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Leondros

Okay - so take away natural gas and where are you? Without baseload capabilities. This should not be an argument of cost - the issue with Germany is they failed to invest in fossil fuels to ensure their energy security as a result of the ESG movement pressuring governments into adopting alternatives without considering mix. The whole point to the argument is that if Germany and Europe in general had acknowledged that natural gas was going to be part of the mix going forward and invested into it, costs would be lower. Instead they made the knee jerk reaction based off of public opinion rather than what energy experts were saying for the past decade and we are now in this mess. To argue natural gas is the unreliable source right now fails to acknowledge how and why we are in this mess.

This is even before considering that over 50% of German homes are heated by natural gas or oil and the result of a transition to heating via energy would have a massive toll on the grid. What possible way are they going to make up that baseload requirement if its not natural gas and nuclear?

To loop this back to the Ukraine/Russia discussion if Nordstream 1/2 is truly as damaged as they say, there is no hope on fixing this for the winter. Its an interesting change of power dynamics as Germany no longer can look directly to Russia to stop their people from freezing to death if its a particularly cold winter. They need to go through Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, etc. Russia has lost some negotiating leverage when it comes to the global energy stage.

I don't disagree with a single sentence here. You cannot take away natural gas even with hindsight because it's the flexible generation they needed. Shutting down nuclear is absurd from any lens except anti nuclear. But the fuel that is unreliable causing the increase in prices is natural gas and it would be regardless of renewables, which is my point

[pseudoreality]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Just wanted to point out that the subtitles are fake/satire, for anyone not aware.

But the twitter handle is Real Subtitles!

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Not in O&G, but that answer is not really. Canada has no LNG export facilities, so we're not an option. The US does, and they're selling some to Europe. But Europe doesn't have the regasification capacity to replace Russian gas with LNG at this point.

Basically, Russian gas has always been cheaper than LNG, so Europe never really invested in the infrastructure for large-scale imports.

Spot on - issue is you need to get the product to the water, liquify it to load onto ships, transport it, offload the liquid on the other side and regasify, and get into pipelines infrastructure.

Truth is Europe didn't plan for this and hamstrung themselves. Canada, is Canada and we let 2 decades of regulation hamper both our ability to get product to tide water and to build the LNG facilities to liquify it.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by calculoso

Hilarious back and forth on a Russian talk show - in Russian but with subtitles. Watch until end

https://twitter.com/user/status/1574865224108220423

I particularly liked the concept of sacrificing the 'lousy street musicians and art students.'

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I don't think it makes much of a difference at all. Nord Stream 2 was never even finished, so that one's irrelevant. Nord Stream 1 could supply gas, but Russia stopped that a month ago after several months of running it at 20% capacity.

Basically, no one was relying on either of those pipelines to supply gas this year. I suppose Russia could have tried to use Nord Stream 1 as a carrot to get concessions, but to what end? No one other than Germany was going to be influenced by that.

Russia stopped the flow and was trying to negotiate lifting some sanctions in exchange for re-starting the flow. With no direct line to Germany, they can no longer try to influence Germany directly. Having a potential pipeline there was a big plus for Russian influence over Germany if the winter gets bad. There was a lot of worry among Germany's neighbours that Germany may give in at some point, but that likely won't be an option now.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Just wanted to point out that the subtitles are fake/satire, for anyone not aware.

Thanks. Don’t speak Russian, never watched Russian TV to know they are unusual, never would have known.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Russia stopped the flow and was trying to negotiate lifting some sanctions in exchange for re-starting the flow. With no direct line to Germany, they can no longer try to influence Germany directly. Having a potential pipeline there was a big plus for Russian influence over Germany if the winter gets bad. There was a lot of worry among Germany's neighbours that Germany may give in at some point, but that likely won't be an option now.

But Germany can't unilaterally lift sanctions. EU sanctions are decided as a bloc, and while Germany is influential, are countries like Poland or the Czech Republic going to vote to lift them solely for Germany's benefit? I doubt it.

Long term, I do see more of an issue, but not just because of Germany. It's not really clear how the EU as a whole plans to fill its gas stores for 2024.

[Elkyiv]

I fail to understand why Georgia is letting in these hoards of escaping russians. I'm looking at which border crossings they're all travelling to and it seems that it's not the South Ossetian ones. Turn them away. Do you really want more russians in your country after what happened in 2008? Strange.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Just wanted to point out that the subtitles are fake/satire, for anyone not aware.

Russian state TV is so unbelievable on its best of days, that this could have happened as is and it wouldn't seem out of place.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Leondros

Spot on - issue is you need to get the product to the water, liquify it to load onto ships, transport it, offload the liquid on the other side and regasify, and get into pipelines infrastructure.



Truth is Europe didn't plan for this and hamstrung themselves. Canada, is Canada and we let 2 decades of regulation hamper both our ability to get product to tide water and to build the LNG facilities to liquify it.

The good news is Canada is staying to look at LNG terminals on the west coast to open in time for it not to matter anymore!

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by opendoor

But Germany can't unilaterally lift sanctions. EU sanctions are decided as a bloc, and while Germany is influential, are countries like Poland or the Czech Republic going to vote to lift them solely for Germany's benefit? I doubt it.

Long term, I do see more of an issue, but not just because of Germany. It's not really clear how the EU as a whole plans to fill its gas stores for 2024.

But Germany can and already has unilaterally skirted the sanctions, specifically to try and get Nord Stream running.

https://www.globalwitness.org/en/cam...e-russian-gas/

On Sunday evening, the Ukrainian government issued a withering condemnation of a deal between the German and Canadian governments which would allow Siemens to export banned technology in the form of a gas turbine to Russia for supposed maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Kyiv asserts that it was an “adjustment of the sanctions regime to the whims of Russia” that violated international solidarity and increased impunity for Russian aggression.

There has already been weakness shown and Russia leveraging Nord Stream against Germany was a big reason for that.