[News] Monahan knows what's on the line this season: 'I have a lot to prove'

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Teroy

Some of the opinions expressed on the topic of Monahan leave me wondering if fans have any loyalty towards players. I also find some of them to be ridiculous.

I have loyalty to the team only. Players get highly compensated to play this game and there's little if any loyalty anymore as players are mercenaries at the end of the day that usually opt to sign with the highest bidder in free agency. That is their right and I don't blame them but I also don't get attached to them for this reason.

[Harry Lime]

March 10th game against Tampa, the entire team was strong. Great game. Monahan was the third best forward on the ice, after Gaudreau and Lindholm. And that was from the 4C spot. He created chances (even though his line couldn't convert), forchecked and backchecked, a couple of great defensive plays and even got under the skin of star player Stamkos, to the point that Stamkos should have been suspended. He outTkachuked Tkachuk.

He has not been able to string games like this together, but it's important to recognize that he is capable of doing it. He is not the one-dimensional player he was when he was a 1C, and that is at least good to see.

If he can play like this a couple of games in a row, I think that he will earn the chance to play on the third line with Mangiapane and Toffoli.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

March 10th game against Tampa, the entire team was strong. Great game. Monahan was the third best forward on the ice, after Gaudreau and Lindholm. And that was from the 4C spot. He created chances (even though his line couldn't convert), forchecked and backchecked, a couple of great defensive plays and even got under the skin of star player Stamkos, to the point that Stamkos should have been suspended. He outTkachuked Tkachuk.

He has not been able to string games like this together, but it's important to recognize that he is capable of doing it. He is not the one-dimensional player he was when he was a 1C, and that is at least good to see.

If he can play like this a couple of games in a row, I think that he will earn the chance to play on the third line with Mangiapane and Toffoli.

Too lazy to look but I wonder how many of his bad games were on the second half of numerous BTBs.

He certainly has had a few games where people generally saw good things. Even against Edmonton where people complained about him not converting (and then a goal against happened right away afterwards to magnify it), he was generally solid in both ends. For me the question is still whether any deal this year is an upgrade at all. The name most mentioned doesn’t even play centre on a regular basis so I’m not very sure of that at all. Off season, his salary is an issue, so I fully expect something has to give.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Teroy

Some of the opinions expressed on the topic of Monahan leave me wondering if fans have any loyalty towards players.

To be honest? No, I don’t. I’ve been following the team since 1984, and in that time I’ve seen hundreds of players pass through the roster. Players come and go. All that matters is team success.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

To be honest? No, I don’t. I’ve been following the team since 1984, and in that time I’ve seen hundreds of players pass through the roster. Players come and go. All that matters is team success.

Me neither really. Even Iginla - once he left I lost a lot of interest in him.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I always find it hilarious when people try and downplay a power play goal like it is some kind of lesser goal. Such a weak argument

Well it is easier to score a PP goal than a 5 on 5 goal, since there's one more player on the ice for the opposing team.

But that's not the main point. The main point is that the officials put their whistles away in the playoffs, so success on the PP in the regular season doesn't really translate into expected success in the playoffs. Just ask McDingus & Co.

[Enoch Root]

Are more goals, or fewer goals scored on specialty teams in the playoffs vs regular season?

I have always been under the impression that the percentage of total goals coming from special teams actually goes up.

[CsInMyBlood]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

March 10th game against Tampa, the entire team was strong. Great game. Monahan was the third best forward on the ice, after Gaudreau and Lindholm. And that was from the 4C spot. He created chances (even though his line couldn't convert), forchecked and backchecked, a couple of great defensive plays and even got under the skin of star player Stamkos, to the point that Stamkos should have been suspended. He outTkachuked Tkachuk.

He has not been able to string games like this together, but it's important to recognize that he is capable of doing it. He is not the one-dimensional player he was when he was a 1C, and that is at least good to see.

If he can play like this a couple of games in a row, I think that he will earn the chance to play on the third line with Mangiapane and Toffoli.

By what metric are you claiming Monahan was the "third best forward" on the ice last night?

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by CsInMyBlood

By what metric are you claiming Monahan was the "third best forward" on the ice last night?

Watching the game and watching him play. His effect on the ice. The plays that he made. He played a fantastic game, one of the best 200 foot, completely engaged games I've ever seen him play. That he did it from the fourth line is encouraging, even if Sutter was essentially rolling all four lines.

[memphusk]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Me neither really. Even Iginla - once he left I lost a lot of interest in him.

I loved Iginla's game. When he left I wished him the best but not over the expense of where I wear my sleeve. I'm tied to this team forever. It's just what happens.

[CsInMyBlood]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Watching the game and watching him play. His effect on the ice. The plays that he made. He played a fantastic game, one of the best 200 foot, completely engaged games I've ever seen him play. That he did it from the fourth line is encouraging, even if Sutter was essentially rolling all four lines.

What? Was it his one shot? Two faceoffs won? His one hit? Zero points? Being Stamkos punching bag? I'm not following.

I also watched the game and I wouldn't put him even close to top 6. Fantastic? Engaged? How can one be engaged and fantastic with one shot and no hits?

Advanced stats in the game places him at the bottom of the pile in almost all metrics among the Flames. Only guys with a worse corsi and fenwick were Coleman and Lewis. Lowest forward in expected goals.

So many forwards with better games last night. I guess Monahan is low bar, he wasn't on the ice for a goal against, so baby steps.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by CsInMyBlood

What? Was it his one shot? Two faceoffs won? His one hit? Zero points? Being Stamkos punching bag? I'm not following.

I also watched the game and I wouldn't put him even close to top 6. Fantastic? Engaged? How can one be engaged and fantastic with one shot and no hits?

Advanced stats in the game places him at the bottom of the pile in almost all metrics among the Flames. Only guys with a worse corsi and fenwick were Coleman and Lewis. Lowest forward in expected goals.

So many forwards with better games last night. I guess Monahan is low bar, he wasn't on the ice for a goal against, so baby steps.

He has a very low bar now, but yesterday was his best game in a while.

If he can play like that in the playoffs, he will be just fine on the 4th line.
If he plays like he does most nights, he could be a huge liability and cost us a very timely goal against, maybe even a game, maybe even a series.

I want to see him play well and contribute to this team in the playoffs, but a large part of me is scared he's going to cost us dearly.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Are more goals, or fewer goals scored on specialty teams in the playoffs vs regular season?

I have always been under the impression that the percentage of total goals coming from special teams actually goes up.

Does anyone have league average goals data for the playoffs? Like the regular season data here:

https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

I'm guessing total goals and powerplay opportunities are both down in the playoffs, but I'm curious by how much.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

He has a very low bar now, but yesterday was his best game in a while.

If he can play like that in the playoffs, he will be just fine on the 4th line.
If he plays like he does most nights, he could be a huge liability and cost us a very timely goal against, maybe even a game, maybe even a series.

I want to see him play well and contribute to this team in the playoffs, but a large part of me is scared he's going to cost us dearly.

I don’t see him costing as much as not adding anything. As a forward, that’s never a compliment. Every line has a role, and typically the 4th is to play in the offensive zone with high energy/physicality. I don’t see him well suited to that role at all, which is why I don’t think he has a great fit anywhere on this team right now.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I always find it hilarious when people try and downplay a power play goal like it is some kind of lesser goal. Such a weak argument

Well it speaks more to the nature of the playoffs in my opinion. Powerplay goal scoring is nice, but in the playoffs, powerplays are less abundant and 5 on 5 production becomes king. Same goes for rush scoring, it completely dries up in the playoffs.

For instance, just look at the Oilers as an example. They had 2 great consecutive regular seasons, yet sport a 1-7 record in their last 8 playoff games and that’s versus the Blackhawks and Jets. A team/line that is too reliant on just rush scoring/power play production does not bode well for playoff type hockey in my opinion. You have to be able to check for your chances in the playoffs where will can overtake skill.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Well it speaks more to the nature of the playoffs in my opinion. Powerplay goal scoring is nice, but in the playoffs, powerplays are less abundant and 5 on 5 production becomes king. Same goes for rush scoring, it completely dries up in the playoffs.

For instance, just look at the Oilers as an example. They had 2 great consecutive regular seasons, yet sport a 1-7 record in their last 8 playoff games and that’s versus the Blackhawks and Jets. A team/line that is too reliant on just rush scoring/power play production does not bode well for playoff type hockey in my opinion. You have to be able to check for your chances in the playoffs where will can overtake skill.

You've said this twice, but do you have stats to back it up?

First, I am curious if there are in fact fewer PPs - certainly, it takes a lot more egregious foul to be called, but at the same time, there is a lot more physicality and nastiness. My guess is the total number of penalty calls doesn't change much.

Second, and more significant, IMO, is that the games are played much tighter and 5 on 5 scoring becomes much harder.

It has long been a playoff cliche that special teams wins in the playoffs, but I would love to see all the stats on this.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I watched all the games. No one was very good. But let’s not pretend Monahan was some weak link on those POs. No one stood out.

His ES and PP stats in the POs are roughly about even, not lopsided. He has maybe one ENG. And in the POs powerplay points are huge.

Monahan is deserving enough criticism without exaggerating his PO performance compared to the rest of the team.

Here’s the problem with powerplay scoring though, you score as a unit, but only 3 guys max, can earn points. If we look at 2017 as an example, Monahan had 5 powerplay points, 0 even strength. Johnny Gaudreau, 2 powerplay points, 0 at even strength. Looking at the raw stats, one might think Monahan was dominant and Gaudreau struggled.

But lets be honest here, would anyone say Monahan is more important to the team’s powerplay? I wouldn’t. Gaudreau plays on the flank and on a 1-3-1 structure, plays usually run through the flanks. So if the unit as a whole scored, then the flank was likely imperative to the unit’s success. The bumper position that Monahan was usually slotted in acts as support/trigger man which isn’t as important in my opinion. It’s the same reason why Toffoli was swapped in for Monahan and that unit hasn’t skipped a beat.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

You've said this twice, but do you have stats to back it up?

First, I am curious if there are in fact fewer PPs - certainly, it takes a lot more egregious foul to be called, but at the same time, there is a lot more physicality and nastiness. My guess is the total number of penalty calls doesn't change much.

Second, and more significant, IMO, is that the games are played much tighter and 5 on 5 scoring becomes much harder.

It has long been a playoff cliche that special teams wins in the playoffs, but I would love to see all the stats on this.

Stats from what period to what period? From which era to which era? I’m not old enough to have seen 80’s hockey or even much 90’s hockey. Was it the same way back then as well? I don’t know. So I wouldn’t even know where to begin to compile stats of any kind that would prove my point.

For me, as in my opinion, it makes sense logically though. In the regular season, just a tap on the pants can get a call, in the playoffs, not so much. So powerplay minutes, equals less chances, equals less goals and it also means more 5 on 5 minutes. Also, theres no 3 on 3 overtime in the playoffs, so that right there may very well answer the question. 5 on 5 production is king.

Also, to swing it around, do you have stats that back up your “special teams wins in the playoffs?” After all, the Flames were 37.5% on the powerplay in that series and they were swept.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

You've said this twice, but do you have stats to back it up?

First, I am curious if there are in fact fewer PPs - certainly, it takes a lot more egregious foul to be called, but at the same time, there is a lot more physicality and nastiness. My guess is the total number of penalty calls doesn't change much.

Second, and more significant, IMO, is that the games are played much tighter and 5 on 5 scoring becomes much harder.

It has long been a playoff cliche that special teams wins in the playoffs, but I would love to see all the stats on this.

I've only calculated for 2018-19, but:

reg / playoff

Goals per game: 3.01 / 2.79
PP opps: 2.92 / 3.16
PP%: 19.78% / 19.82%

May do some more years later. Suprised about PP opportunities. The one thing about the playoffs is that the final 4 teams generally account for nearly 50% of the playoff games each year (other 12 teams being the other half), so outliers may effect things a bit more.

Random aside of 2019 playoffs:

Spoiler!

GF/GP GA/GP PP%
STL 2.88 2.69 16.3
BOS 3.29 2.13 32.4

Powerplay opps were equal. BOS had a 1G+ differential and killer PP that year.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

You've said this twice, but do you have stats to back it up?

First, I am curious if there are in fact fewer PPs - certainly, it takes a lot more egregious foul to be called, but at the same time, there is a lot more physicality and nastiness. My guess is the total number of penalty calls doesn't change much.

Second, and more significant, IMO, is that the games are played much tighter and 5 on 5 scoring becomes much harder.

It has long been a playoff cliche that special teams wins in the playoffs, but I would love to see all the stats on this.

Just did a quick search on NST, and the numbers do in fact back up what you said. For the last 3 seasons (not including this one), the average amount of time per game that teams spent on the powerplay was basically equal in the postseason as in the RS. If anything there may have been a slight increase in the postseason.

Well, for me, lesson learned. This goes to show that commonly held beliefs in sports can sometimes be myths.

However, the link between good special teams and playoff winning percentage doesn't seem to be that strong. 5 on 5 GF% has a much stronger coorelation to win % than special teams do.