CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Peanut]

Originally Posted by GGG

And girly is turned 100% now. Sorry for wasting all your time.

What do you mean by this GGG? I'm trying to work through the logic of your posts since others are agreeing with you (so I want to understand, because I'm currently a bit confused about what I think the best play is).

Was your position that the spore is a red herring, so we should only vote Girly if we think she is turned? That makes sense to me I think

But then something happened to make you think she's 100% turned now?

I'm sort of at the Party Elephant stage of reasoning right now. I get why we are suspicious of Girly, but I don't get why there is such a strong thrust of support for Oling. Yesterday we were discussing how lying about the spore actually could have been a good scum/turned play, with the exception of the fact that it's brought a lot of attention to him. In that case Girly could definitely be telling the truth - she doesn't have the spore yet and she might not get it tonight.

I'm further puzzled by Oling's 180 on Girly just now.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

You have to trust at least one of them.

Either Oling did or didn't give her the spore, and she is either infected or not. If you trut neither than you should have no issue lynching either of them.

No. You're still posting under the assumption that oling had the spore in the first place. Telling me it's either one way or another while leaving out an equally likely possibility is just manipulation. We have very few facts available so what makes your assumptions any better than mine?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

No. You're still posting under the assumption that oling had the spore in the first place. Telling me it's either one way or another while leaving out an equally likely possibility is just manipulation. We have very few facts available so what makes your assumptions any better than mine?

No I'm not.

If you don't trust Oling you think he is either a host/turned. If that's the case then you must trust Girly as she cannot be a host or turned.

If you don't trust Girly you think she is either a host or turned. If you think she is turned you have to trust Oling. If you think she is a host why would Oling lie about giving her the spore? So again you would trust Oling.

Name me a scenario where you could trust neither.

If you don't trust either of them then you must suspect them both to be a host/infected. If that is the case then why would they implicate one another?

[Peanut]

Originally Posted by Peanut

What do you mean by this GGG? I'm trying to work through the logic of your posts since others are agreeing with you (so I want to understand, because I'm currently a bit confused about what I think the best play is).

Was your position that the spore is a red herring, so we should only vote Girly if we think she is scum? That makes sense to me I think

But then something happened to make you think she's 100% turned now?

Sorry I made a mistake - I think your logic was spore is a red herring so we should vote for the person we think is most likely to be scum/host? But then something happened to make you think she was 100% turned? So in that case it's almost as good to vote for a confirmed turned. It would be better to take out a host but the turned are going to start working against us as well.

All this being said I'm still completely confused about who to trust and who to vote for.

[Peanut]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

No I'm not.

If you don't trust Oling you think he is either a host/turned. If that's the case then you must trust Girly as she cannot be a host or turned.

If you don't trust Girly you think she is either a host or turned. If you think she is turned you have to trust Oling. If you think she is a host why would Oling lie about giving her the spore? So again you would trust Oling.

Name me a scenario where you could trust neither.

If you don't trust either of them then you must suspect them both to be a host/infected. If that is the case then why would they implicate one another?

What if Oling was host and Girly was turned?

[Oling_Roachinen]

As long as we trust the Government Agent checks GirlySports, she'll either die tonight or..well live.

If she dies, it should be obvious I sent her the spore and it's now missing...but that doesn't mean I'm trustworthy because I could have just received it back from GirlySports and end up Turned anyways. So there's no real gain for me, no long-term gain trust strategy when the second we lose the spore everyone's trust worthiness drops back down to 0 (except a revealed Genetic Anomaly...)

If she lives, she'll either confirm having the Spore and sent it on it's merry way. She should have to reveal who she is sending it to today, and then on Day 4 we can have a ~50% chance of a check if the spore-target doesn't turn or a potential delayed check on Day 5 if we lynch the spore-target and someone ends up claiming to have had to send it during Night 4.

If she lives and says she didn't receive the spore, I will know she is Host. And then we have an easy me vs her lynch.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Peanut

What if Oling was host and Girly was turned?

Why would the hosts out their only infected player?

[Oling_Roachinen]

^So I don't think we should lynch her.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

No I'm not.

If you don't trust Oling you think he is either a host/turned. If that's the case then you must trust Girly as she cannot be a host or turned.

If you don't trust Girly you think she is either a host or turned. If you think she is turned you have to trust Oling. If you think she is a host why would Oling lie about giving her the spore? So again you would trust Oling.

Name me a scenario where you could trust neither.

If you don't trust either of them then you must suspect them both to be a host/infected. If that is the case then why would they implicate one another?

Whether or not I trust girly is moot if I don't trust oling, so yeah I guess I'm leaning town for her but that doesn't mean I'm 100% on it. I guess you and I are going to have to agree to disagree, but I'm leaving my vote where it is.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Whether or not I trust girly is moot if I don't trust oling, so yeah I guess I'm leaning town for her but that doesn't mean I'm 100% on it. I guess you and I are going to have to agree to disagree, but I'm leaving my vote where it is.

So if you don't trust him you think he is a host, correct?

[Hockeyguy15]

Do you also think I'm a host?

Who ever claims anomaly gets a free pass. They'll likely be the last person to get the spore because the scum wouldn't want to waste their spore on a guaranteed safe person.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

So if you don't trust him you think he is a host, correct?

It's a definite possibility. I laid out the whole scenario like 200 posts ago if you want to refresh yourself.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Do you also think I'm a host?

If you want to put everything into absolutes that's your prerogative but I'm not going along with it.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

If you want to put everything into absolutes that's your prerogative but I'm not going along with it.

Well I do believe it's a relevant question since you have voted for me. It would be counter productive to vote for someone you didn't think was a host, wouldn't it? Maybe you think I'm the most possibly scum out of everyone then?

[Party Elephant]

Yep its where I'm leaning, hence my vote.

[Peanut]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Why would the hosts out their only infected player?

Hmm yes, good point.

Originally Posted by Peanut

Hmm yes, good point.

I'll tell you why they would vote out their infected player: meta gaming. They have nothing but time on their hands. They do it to gain the trust of us townies so they can lead us around by the nose for the rest of the game. This is why you can't trust anyone. Unless you're a mason. Or a scum.

[Hockeyguy15]

So Puxlut and Party, due to my posting habits and the fact that you think I am trying to sway the vote you think I am a host with this grand plan?

Or is it more likely that I just think Girly is infected with a chance of being a host and think she is a better option to lynch than Timbo? And the reason I am posting and trying to sway the vote is because we have a lot of passengers in this game so I feel that I have to do the leg work otherwise the hosts can sit in silence and relax?

And for the record Puxlut I was not trying to bully you, I was challenging your logic because I believe it's flawed. You take things far too personally in this game, my posts are not intended to be malicious in any way.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Peanut

What do you mean by this GGG? I'm trying to work through the logic of your posts since others are agreeing with you (so I want to understand, because I'm currently a bit confused about what I think the best play is).

Was your position that the spore is a red herring, so we should only vote Girly if we think she is turned? That makes sense to me I think

But then something happened to make you think she's 100% turned now?

I'm sort of at the Party Elephant stage of reasoning right now. I get why we are suspicious of Girly, but I don't get why there is such a strong thrust of support for Oling. Yesterday we were discussing how lying about the spore actually could have been a good scum/turned play, with the exception of the fact that it's brought a lot of attention to him. In that case Girly could definitely be telling the truth - she doesn't have the spore yet and she might not get it tonight.

I'm further puzzled by Oling's 180 on Girly just now.

The strategy of lynch oling as the other before you investigate early is quite poor and seems like a desperate attempt at avoiding getting lynched. This to me makes it more likely that she has been turned rather than unturned. If were lynching oling for being a host you would first validate girly as unturned then make the decision on oling.

Lynching oling today seems like trying to take down someone with her.

So I now believe that girly is more likely host then unturned so would be willing to vote for her. But we have could discussion going so we should wait anyway.

For voting girly the decision is Host vs Unturned. If she's turned it doesn't matter if she is host lynching is optimum, if she is unturned investigating is the better option.