Harper Prorogues Parliament Again

[CaptainCrunch]

Yeah, I got my notification email with those messages from the Liberal's this morning.

However I'm still extremely miffed about Parliment being closed down again so attack ads to really come into my equation now.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Yeah, I got my notification email with those messages from the Liberal's this morning.

However I'm still extremely miffed about Parliment being closed down again so attack ads to really come into my equation now.

To me its kind of debateable to call these attack ads. They are actually about a political issue that is actually taking place. I suppose they do say that Harper gave him the break as a Christmas present though and that is probably the defining line.

The PC attack ads were much more personal against the Liberal leaders and basically didn't bring up any real issues (at least to me).

[CaptainCrunch]

Haven't seen them yet tbqh, however I call all ads from political parties attack ads.

[Pastiche]

Big swing in polling since the proroguement.

3 seperate polls show a 10 pp drop for the Conservatives. Conservatives now at 30 to 29 for the Liberals.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs...rticle1430715/

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by Pastiche

Big swing in polling since the proroguement.

3 seperate polls show a 10 pp drop for the Conservatives. Conservatives now at 30 to 29 for the Liberals.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs...rticle1430715/

Its just the chattering classes .

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Pastiche

Big swing in polling since the proroguement.

3 seperate polls show a 10 pp drop for the Conservatives. Conservatives now at 30 to 29 for the Liberals.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs...rticle1430715/

Wow. Wake up call time for Ignatieff. Time to start leading. This actually might be a game changer.

With that said, sometimes short-term changes swing back in short order. But preliminarily, that's an alarming trend for Harper.

[starseed]

Odd. I cant believe that almost 1 out of every 3 Canadians still support the conservatives.

[FlamesAddiction]

I don't trust any polls that are anything more than a couple of weeks away from an election. The majority of people will vote based on last impressions and have really short memories. A video clip of Stockwell Day waterskiing will likely get the Conservatives back up in the polls.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I don't trust any polls that are anything more than a couple of weeks away from an election. The majority of people will vote based on last impressions and have really short memories. A video clip of Stockwell Day waterskiing will likely get the Conservatives back up in the polls.

That's one of those things that seems intuitively like it should be true--but in fact, the vast majority of people don't change their voter preference during an election season. It's far more difficult than people think to "move the numbers" in the absence of some sort of game-changing event.

I think you are right to suggest caution in interpreting these results, though. If in the next three weeks the numbers for Harper shoot back up, then we can probably just call this a "reverse honeymoon."

But I actually think it's likely they won't; think of the psychology of a random voter who has previously voted conservative but now has decided not to because he or she is upset about Harper proroguing parliament.

This person is a) engaged in the political process, b) cares about Harper's actions and c) is highly likely to remember this next time he or she goes to the polls.

Time will tell--but this is bad news for Harper. It's not good news for the Liberals--at least not yet--because their support has not increased. But if this is a solid erosion of Harper's support, he's very unlikely to get those votes back unless something else happens to move the needle in the other direction.

[Slava]

^Its not great news for the Liberals, for sure. I guess the issue coming down the pipe for the conservatives is a budget though. If they are serious about paying down the debt then that budget might not be all roses for the average voter and not something you will want to campaign on. Time will tell.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

That's one of those things that seems intuitively like it should be true--but in fact, the vast majority of people don't change their voter preference during an election season. It's far more difficult than people think to "move the numbers" in the absence of some sort of game-changing event.

But the vast number of undecided people are easily manipulated and will go for what is popular at that moment... and those undecided people are the ones that can swing the election either way. Just look at Dion's terrible video production that was mocked by everyone in the media. The message was lost to something more superficial.

Maybe I have no faith in politics, but it seems to me that a party can waffle and stall, do nothing, and even make bad decisions for 4 years... but as long as they are popular in that short time leading up to the election, they are golden. Conversely, a party that generally governs well for several years can bomb in an election if they screw up in the few weeks leading up to an election. People tend not to look at the bigger picture.

The party that wins will be the one that have the best smart asses and the hippest and wittiest ads on TV. That is my prediction. Issues like the economy, taxes and proroguing government will take a back seat.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Slava

^Its not great news for the Liberals, for sure. I guess the issue coming down the pipe for the conservatives is a budget though. If they are serious about paying down the debt then that budget might not be all roses for the average voter and not something you will want to campaign on. Time will tell.

But on the other hand a 'non-chicken in every pot' budget would be music to voters like my ears. Seems to me most budgets since the late 90s were all about chicken in every pot type policies regradless of which party introduced them. If we're serious about eliminating the deficit and eventually eliminating the additional debt incurred since the financial crisis then I expect to see cutbacks and possibly a GST increase (Although it would never happen from the Conservatives because they would look bad after cutting it 200 bps!)

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

But on the other hand a 'non-chicken in every pot' budget would be music to voters like my ears. Seems to me most budgets since the late 90s were all about chicken in every pot type policies regradless of which party introduced them. If we're serious about eliminating the deficit and eventually eliminating the additional debt incurred since the financial crisis then I expect to see cutbacks and possibly a GST increase (Although it would never happen from the Conservatives because they would look bad after cutting it 200 bps!)

Right, but even so these budgets are not the kind of thing to go to war with. Its not even that I disagree...but a raise taxes/cut spending budget when a lot of Ontario voters are maybe not feeling as good as voters in Alberta isn't going to get many swing votes?

Plus, it really makes no difference whether Harper wins my riding with 65% of the vote or 85%. It might make me more annoyed, but its still one seat. This has been the issue for the CPC all along and why they haven't been able to win a majority.

[onetwo_threefour]

Had a meeting with a conservative MP yesterday, in a personal capacity. It was implied that there were going to be some spending announcements in the very near future. I think Harper will spend a bit here to buy some support. The MP I was talking to was bemoaning the move away from balanced budgets but I kind of get the idea that they're not supposed to say anything to that effect publically right now.

I guess we'll see if these spending announcements are actual or not...

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by starseed

Odd. I cant believe that almost 1 out of every 3 Canadians still support the conservatives.

I could say the same thing about the Liberal's under Ignatieff, who honestly has had a pretty dreadfull performance as Liberal leader.

[chemgear]

Thread necromancy. Arise! Round 3!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/stor...orogation.html

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has confirmed he will ask the Governor General to prorogue Parliament until October, when his Conservative government will introduce the next speech from the throne.

The move marks the third time since Harper took office in 2006 that he has sought prorogation, with the first two requests being successful.

[Ducay]

Its standard course of action. Its a slow news day. I'd be upset or concerned if he was doing it again to prevent loss of power (ala 2009/10), or to suspend a commission/inquiry (ala Chretien, or MacDonald).

[Devils'Advocate]

Every day parliament is open, the opposition is hammering Harper on Wallin and Duffy. And the media is more than ready to lap that up. Harper is wise to shut down and not give the opposition opportunity to keep this this in the news. I liken Harper to Chrétien in the ability to sweep scandals under the rug. Very strong political animal... He knows what he is doing here.