Heat averaging 3,445 fans, building base says president

[Flames Draft Watcher]

I guess its a matter of expectations.

It seems like some of you think they should have been averaging 6-8000 right away? I don't know if thats realistic. JFK thinks pro teams always debut with amazing attendance it would appear. Once again I think he's made a massive generalization that doesn't hold true at all.

I'd guess that in a market like Abby, the ticket base will grow over the years as opposed to shrinking, like it had done in previous markets we've put our farm team in.

If some of you think attendance is poor I think the economic climate might have more to do with it than anything else as well as how recently the team was approved and set up and marketed. Personally the attendance numbers are not worrying to me.

But I didn't really come here to defend the attendance at Heat games. I came here because the reasoning used to predict why the Heat will fail is almost always super faulty.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by dobbles

i know everyone tries to paint me as a jaded QC fan, but i think JFK brings up a good point. all summer we were led to believe that this team would be super successful. it seems the only people that posted were long times flames fans who happened to live in the area. that seems to be the only real group that was happy.

i think the flames/canucks issue is a problem. their attendance is pretty piss poor and with it being a new franchise, they should be blowing the roof off the place this year. we heard all about how sweeting had 4,000 season ticket holders lined up, how british columbia was hockey crazy and would support anyone, and how the flames connection wouldn't hurt. yet the attendance numbers just don't seem to back that up. they are in the bottom portion of the league.

Well, the team had to go somewhere. Don't forget, the investors in Quad Cities wanted out and at the same time, Abbotsford wanted in. What were the Flames supposed to do?

Besides, 3,445 is still better than 2,810 or whatever Quad Cities averaged.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by QuadCityImages

Flames Draft Watcher, I think a lot of what you're saying makes more sense than you're being given credit for, but you aren't explaining why attendance is so low if its not the affiliation.

Why do you think they aren't filling the place?

The team was approved in what, late spring? They've been marketing it since what, the summer? This has all happened during the economic downturn.

I think for a new team during a recession the attendance hasn't looked all that bad. Time will tell.

Greater exposure, more word of mouth, economic recovery should all result in greater attendance imo. Its a higher level of hockey than junior and that will appeal to a certain segment of the population that does not have Canucks seasons tickets but wants to watch high level pro hockey.

I dunno, I'm not sure why people are worried this so early in the life of the franchise.

[QuadCityImages]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I dunno, I'm not sure why people are worried this so early in the life of the franchise.

Because history shows that you only get 2 years to make it work?

[dobbles]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

The team was approved in what, late spring? They've been marketing it since what, the summer? This has all happened during the economic downturn.

I think for a new team during a recession the attendance hasn't looked all that bad. Time will tell.

Greater exposure, more word of mouth, economic recovery should all result in greater attendance imo. Its a higher level of hockey than junior and that will appeal to a certain segment of the population that does not have Canucks seasons tickets but wants to watch high level pro hockey.

I dunno, I'm not sure why people are worried this so early in the life of the franchise.

in all fairness, sweeting started talking about the flames coming well before christmas last year. the team got all kinds of good free p.r. throughout last winter and spring. and while they couldnt officially start doing things, it still gave them a huge headstart in building buzz.

i guess expectations were too high, but a lot of that was because of people like sweeting talking so much smack about all the season tickets he was going to sell and such. additionally, they were bringing ahl hockey to a large canadian market. heck, in the FOI forum there's so many people saying how canada needs more teams as they will support them unconditionally, so why are these guys not embraced? and heck, how bout that economy? the midwest has been bleeding jobs and people for decades, but we were still held to those high expectations.

once again, i think it was sutter that made the comment about how it was important to have the prospects playing in front of big crowds to get used to it. so apparently he thinks its important.


also, for the guy making the QC comparison, pretty sure that QC started off equal or a bit better in the first 10 or 20 home games. yet that fizzled. so like i have said, if you can't sell out your franchise opener, you are having problems...

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dobbles

also, for the guy making the QC comparison, pretty sure that QC started off equal or a bit better in the first 10 or 20 home games. yet that fizzled. so like i have said, if you can't sell out your franchise opener, you are having problems...

I think the trend might be the opposite in Canada. Interest in hockey often picks up in the spring/late winter when the playoff races start heating up. I'm pretty sure the Calgary Hitmen get better crowds later in the season.

And if the Canucks fall out of the playoff race at any point and the Heat make the AHL playoffs I think you'd see a massive spike in interest as people turn from a disappointment to a success to get their hockey fix. I know personally as a Canadian die-hard fan my attention would turn more to junior and AHL hockey if my NHL team was struggling and that I enjoyed several Hitmen playoff runs after the Flames were eliminated. I also bought Hitmen season tickets the year of the lockout for my hockey fix. I would definitely had rather gone to see AHL hockey in Calgary over the WHL even if it was the Oilers farm team or the Canucks farm team. The exception I guess would be if a high profile Flames prospect was playing for or against the Hitmen, that would increase my interest in the WHL.

I think making the playoffs will be a big deal for the Heat. Wouldn't surprise me if attendance picks up in the spring. Any struggles or early playoff eliminations by the Canucks and Giants would likely also lead to increased interest in the Heat and their playoff run if they make it.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by QuadCityImages

Because history shows that you only get 2 years to make it work?

True, history does show that for the Flames farm team.

My calendar also shows me that we're closer to 2 months of the franchise playing games then we are to 2 years.

It will be interesting to see the attendance trends over the year and hopefully into the playoffs for the Heat. An entertaining playoff run would win many a fan over and really start the buzz about the team.

NHL popularity and attendance in Canada may be somewhat less swingy when an NHL team struggles, but certainly WHL and AHL attendance often depend on a winning or entertaining product.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Just to highlight some attendance discrepancies lets looks at the Calgary Hitmen. I've been to a bunch of regular season games even during the lockout where the attendance was in the 4000-8000 range.

Fan appreciation night? Probably 13,000-17,000 fans. When they make the playoffs? More around the 12,000+ range. If they win a round or two? Start looking for sellouts to potentially happen.

Can you conceive of 17,000+ fans watching a sold out WHL game involving 16-19 year old kids playing hockey at a level of hockey that is noticeably inferior to the NHL with extremely questionable refereeing? Fans will flock to a playoff success, especially if the NHL team is struggling. And you get a different market including families that could not afford to take their kids to every single NHL playoff game.

There are a lot of reasons why you shouldn't be extrapolating the attendance out at the start of the 1st season and assuming it will be similar for the entire first two years. The Heat's success, their playoff success, and the potential lack of Canucks success all have the potential to really cement a solid season ticket base or not.

[dobbles]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I think the trend might be the opposite in Canada. Interest in hockey often picks up in the spring/late winter when the playoff races start heating up. I'm pretty sure the Calgary Hitmen get better crowds later in the season.

yeah i totally agree in general. attendance is low at the beginning of the year, and then in the spring as playoff runs occur, people show up. totally agree with that generalization.

however, i was more pointing out that when i team launches, it is one of the prime opportunities to get big crowds and build support. if you can't get folks excited to show up to the first game ever, how can you get them excited for a tuesday night game in mid january against the milwuakee admirals????

so thats where i was going with my statement about starting strong.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dobbles

however, i was more pointing out that when i team launches, it is one of the prime opportunities to get big crowds and build support. if you can't get folks excited to show up to the first game ever, how can you get them excited for a tuesday night game in mid january against the milwuakee admirals????

Cause Vancouver/Abbotsford area is often still quite nice weather wise at the start of the season? September can be like another month of summer in Vancouver.

Nov-Feb is typically overcast, rainy, snowy, foggy, dark, etc. Generally miserable.

Interest in hockey in Canada picks up when the weather goes foul IMO and you have less outdoor activities to do, and the sun doesn't stay up as long.

That's my theory anyway.

[dobbles]

well, like i said, if you can't get people excited for the first ever ahl game in the area because of weather, then i think the long term forecast (pardon the weather pun) is not good.

[tkflames]

I hate to bump this thread, but since it is already at the top I will contribute...The Heat have consistantly averaged around 3500 +/- 400 fans. While overall this is not nearly enough, this base has been consitant and speaks well to the future of the franchise in my opinion. This is certainly a number you can build on this early in the season. I would expect that ticket sales to boost the average around christmas time as families look for entertainment and continue with stronger attendance as we get closer to playoff races. It is vital that the Heat stay in contention and look to have done a solid job so far ( I hate how there is such a game discrepancy between AHL teams).

Dobbles: I understand your schadenfreude in wanting to see this club fail and would likely have a similar attitude were I in your shoes. However, while you are correct in saying that the team had a lot of time to get ready to prepare for the season, the reality is that they were not ready. I attended one of the preseason games against the Moose: some concessions were open, some t-shirts were available, there was no mascot, no real intermission entertainment, crappy popcorn and definitely no tv-timeout entertainment. While this is not a pre-requisite for a diehard fan, the average family appreciates this. Also I saw several news programs after the first couple of games that showed that the average person didn't even know the team existed. To suggest that this is poor management to start a season would be correct, but to imply that this is the reflection of a poor fanbase is incorrect.

Much like the hockey team, the priority for the Heat should be consitancy. You don't have to sell out every night to start, but you require gradual growth over a prolonged period. This was the biggest problem in QC...After the initial bump, there was a very strong downward trend in attendance, which to this poster would suggest an insufficient fan base.

Final Thought: I think in QC it would have made a world of difference to call the Flames the "Mallards".

[dobbles]

how many times do i have to say i dont want the team to fail?!?!?!? god it gets annoying. if i wanted to see them fail would i have driven a couple hours each way the night before (american) thanksgiving to see them play?

i am just trying to understand the attendance problems. because i honestly expected attendance to be higher. additionally, 2 years ago qc fans were coming up with tons of similar excuses as to why the flames weren't more popular. and while the markets couldn't be more different, the problem is the same.

if anything, they do still have a chance. i dont think they have had any of their home games agsint the moose, and i can only assume those dates will draw really, really well. however, the team has a lot of crappily scheduled games. they have more weeknight games and tons of back to backs. and unfortunately, that works against them. coupled with the fact that they need good numbers to pay for the travel subsidies, these early season numbers have to be super disappointing.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dobbles

well, like i said, if you can't get people excited for the first ever ahl game in the area because of weather, then i think the long term forecast (pardon the weather pun) is not good.

Its funny someone so far from Abbotsford is arguing so hard that they will fail. Your doom and gloom outlook just comes across as being bitterness from losing the team. The logic you employ is suspect.

they don't sell out first game THEREFORE they won't succeed longterm. their attendance for the first couple months of their existence is average THEREFORE they won't succeed longterm. You're grasping at straws on that one buddy. It obviously does not necessarily hold true.

It might end up being the case. You might be dead wrong. To assume they'll fail shows your bias. You want them to fail, its pretty clear.

You asked why the attendance might be average. Some of us respond with some pretty well though out answers about marketing, weather, the newness of the team, demonstrating a successful product on the ice, etc and you write it all off and say that they should have amazing attendance despite all those factors and that the team is going to fail because of it. Think of how that comes across to us? You're dismissing all the logic in this thread for pure doom and gloom scenarios. That is why people think you want the team to fail.

Its almost as if you've taken the Canadian vs American market personally. And since the supposed much better Canadian market is demonstrating the same attendance as yours so far, you think it should be higher and that the fact it isn't higher demonstrates they will fail. Sorry but that isn't as compelling of an argument as some of the others in this thread.

Canadians love hockey. That doesn't mean a new team who barely had time to set up and market and get themselves known in the community should be judged and then dismissed based on the attendance of the first two months of its existence. The judging is fine. Its the assuming they'll fail because of this early attendance that shows you have a strong bias against them succeeding.

[dobbles]

doom and gloom eh?

lets look at the 'well thought out answers' that i totally dismissed in my effort to gloat over the teams failure:

1)attendance is better late in the year: i actually agree with this point. the only thing i was trying to say is that a new franchise should benefit immensely from the novelty factor. so while i expect abbottsford attendance to rise as the season wears on, i expect it to rise elsewhere as well which would still leave abbottsford near the bottom of the league. so while it might be an indicator as to why the number itself is pretty low, it doesn't help in regards to being at the bottom of the league. doom and gloom i guess....

2)team didn't have time to prepare: this was brought up early in the thread and i commented on it, so its fair game. its a decent reason as it can be hard to get staff in place and get things running. the only reason i discussed it was to note that from a marketing standpoint they had almost a year of free press because of the QC drama. if sweeting was so confident in the media, couldn't they have gotten a better headstart? once again, total doom and gloom...

3)the weather: i honestly did see this as a cop out. i guess you could call it the closest to doom and gloom out of the 3. mainly because of what i heard in the qc hence why i made the comparison. we grasped at straws for reasons the team was unpopular for 2 years and it did nothing to help. i see it as a poor excuse because games are played at night when weather is not such a competing factor. additionally, the season doesnt start until a week or two into october, and considering you said nov-feb was the crappy time for weather, a handful of games in october that could potentially be impacted because of weather seems like a cop out to me. and like i said before, if weather causes people to not care about the team, then they do have problems. like i said, a mild amount of doom and gloom.

anyway, you read everything i say with a negative connotation simply because i am from the qc. just because i thought your weather resonse was lame, all of a sudden i am a jaded qc person with faulty logic. good straw man there...

[Red_Baron]

The best chance for the heat is for the canucks to keep sucking. If there is any semblance of canuck success, that whole area gets the terrible disease known as "canuck fever" and people get pretty irrational and will go to great lengths to put down something with any connection to their rivals. If the canucks fail as they usually do, the fans usually take their "I knew they sucked all along" attitude and focus on something else. Hopefully this will be the Abbotford heat.
For our Quad City friends, you do realize that Abbotford is only 40 miles from Vancouver? Could you imagine (if there was such a thing) a farm team for the Green Bay Packers setting up in the Chicago-area?

[Traditional_Ale]

If I had snow tires I would drive out there for a Saturday night game, crash there, then drive home on the Sunday, or take Monday off and drive home then. I think it would be fun to see the farm in a new building.

[JFK]

Originally Posted by Red_Baron

The best chance for the heat is for the canucks to keep sucking. If there is any semblance of canuck success, that whole area gets the terrible disease known as "canuck fever" and people get pretty irrational and will go to great lengths to put down something with any connection to their rivals.

We already learned that the Flames affiliation with the Heat has no effect on attendance.

[PeteMoss]

If this Abbotsford thing doesn't work out... one city that I could nearly guarantee would draw like crazy is Thunder Bay, Ontario. That is a city that is crazy for hockey... I pulled this from hockey futures so no idea who accurate it is... but it does give a general idea the type of crowds they draw there for university hockey (Lakehead is in Thunder Bay):

TEAM | AVERAGE
Brock Badgers 276
Carleton Ravens 190
Concordia Stingers 219
Guelph Gryphons 104
Lakehead Thunderwolves 2985
Laurier Golden Hawks 193
McGill Redmen 389
Ottawa Gee Gees N/A
Queen's Golden Gaels 138
U.O.I.T. Ridgebacks 510
U.Q.T.R. Patriotes 184
Waterloo Warriors 280
Western Mustangs 274
Windsor Lancers 164

They draw 3000 fans in a league where half the teams don't even draw 300.

[Svartsengi]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

If this Abbotsford thing doesn't work out... one city that I could nearly guarantee would draw like crazy is Thunder Bay, Ontario. That is a city that is crazy for hockey... I pulled this from hockey futures so no idea who accurate it is... but it does give a general idea the type of crowds they draw there for university hockey (Lakehead is in Thunder Bay):



They draw 3000 fans in a league where half the teams don't even draw 300.

I went and looked up the ticket prices at both Lakehead and Abbotsford. Lakehead single game adult ticket is $12, students $6. In Abbotsford a single game ticket varies between $15.50 and $38.50. Not sure if Thunder Bay would be willing to pay for the increase.