Can the Flames become a contender without tanking?

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by just_tim

Here’s the list of Number One overall NHL draft picks who have gone on to win the Stanley Cup:
- Guy Lafleur (1971 - Montreal Canadiens) Stanley Cups: 5 (1973, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979)
- Mario Lemieux (1984 - Pittsburgh Penguins) Stanley Cups: 2 (1991, 1992)
- Patrick Kane (2007 - Chicago Blackhawks) Stanley Cups: 3 (2010, 2013, 2015)
- Alex Ovechkin (2004 - Washington Capitals) Stanley Cup: 1 (2018)
- Sidney Crosby (2005 - Pittsburgh Penguins) Stanley Cups: 3 (2009, 2016, 2017)

That’s 14 cups shared by 5 players over 53 years. It’s a simplified way to illustrates that drafting high is in no way a guaranteed way to build.

Stamkos - two Stanley Cups, in 2020 and 2021
Ekblad - 1
Mackinnon - 1
Erik Johnson - 1
Marc Andre Fleury - 3
Lecavalier - 1
Mike Modano - 1
Joe Murphy - 1
Rob Ramage - 2

27 Cups shared by 14 players in 53 years.

So about a 25% chance a 1st overall pick will win a cup, and the ones who do win, a 50% chance they win multiple cups.

Those are pretty damn good odds.

[Wastedyouth]

I guess, if your argument is "ANYTHING can happen", then yes I agree you do not need to tank.

Lol.

[Hot_Flatus]

^^The fact of the matter is the Flames have gone down this road before...we've seen it. You typically end up with a flawed product that will be good, but not great or have a very limited shelf life.

The caveat here is that the team appears to have a stud #1 goalie and quite possibly has found a straw that stirs the drink in terms of player development and drafting under Conroy that it never had before.

The team most certainly needs to nail the draft again this year, and the best way to do that is by drafting in the top 10 (which I fully believe will happen this year) and landing that much needed Center for the future to round out the pipeline. If that happens and Conroy doesn't do anything silly with the cap space too soon, there is a good chance this team could be quite good without bottoming out fully imho.

[Bingo]

The push back is what I don't get.

I don't think many argue that high draft picks are necessary, and I think there would be a vocal angry majority if the team loaded up this summer, or started moving futures now to bolster a team close to a playoff spot.

They didn't. They're not.

They moved 6 UFAs for futures and younger players. They moved their starting goaltender a two years before he will be a UFA. They carried 20M in cap space into the season.

The decisions are fine.

If that's the case I don't think you need to worry, as they seem to be on the same page. The team is winning, largely on the backs of young players pitching in more than expected.

Bad asset decisions, and no direction drive me nuts.

This team isn't doing that.

Lamenting on ice results after good decisions is pointless.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

And the Flames were one bounce away from losing in the first round during their cup run.

Yes.

Which proves there is luck involved. Therefore we can't make the silly definitive statements that you and Wastedyouth are making.

[Ashasx]

nvm low quality post

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

I guess, if your argument is "ANYTHING can happen", then yes I agree you do not need to tank.

Lol.

I've literally stated my argument. Twice.

If all you've got is to change my argument to something of your own making, then you've got nothing and the conversation is over.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I've literally stated my argument. Twice.

If all you've got is to change my argument to something of your own making, then you've got nothing and the conversation is over.

This is a funny hill you are willing to die on.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

I guess, if your argument is "ANYTHING can happen", then yes I agree you do not need to tank.

Lol.

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

This is a funny hill you are willing to die on.

The irony.

You're arguing like a 10 year old.

[TheIronMaiden]

The issue isn't that the Flames are refusing to field a weak team, its that this "weak team" is refusing to collapse. They've not gone on a season ending losing streak. The most they've lost is 4 in row. This teams WANTS TO WIN. and despite a definite lack of top end skill they've been winning enough, and not losing enough to stay in the playoff race.

So long as Conroy doesn't get any stupid ideas, the rebuild is on track and the bottom could fall out any time.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The irony.

You're arguing like a 10 year old.

Ah, resorting to insults and name calling.

The last resort of someone "winning" an argument.

[Ba'alzamon]

I think everyone can agree on a couple things:

1. elite, top-end players can be found at any point in the draft; and
2. players like that are easier to find with earlier picks.

It is possible to build a contender without drafting early. It doesn't matter whether or not it has happened, it is technically possible. But early draft picks remove a non-trivial percentage of the luck required in order to build such a team (or at least to accumulate the talented players part of the equation).

[boogerz]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

We always talk about tanking and picking high to build a contender but trades are equally as important to successful cup winning teams.

Florida last year for as much as we talk about Barkov and Ekblad it was Tkachuk, Reinhart, Bennett and others that were just as key to that win.

Vegas is not a fair sample because of expansion but obviously Eichel, and Stone were huge trade acquisitions.

Colorado has Toews and Kadri

Tampa had done a great job at drafting but key trade pieces like Coleman, Goodrow, Hagel were low cap hit, high caliber players that helped get them over the top

The Blues remade much of their roster prior to 2019 with RoR being a huge trade piece

100% agreed. The Flames don't finish at the top of the pacific in 2021-22 without acquiring key pieces like Lindholm, Toffoli, and Hanifin via trade. The Jets have also done a great job of assembling a perennial almost-contender through drafting and trading.

There's enough proof that bottoming out to get a top pick doesn't create success...just look at Sabres, Sens, Habs, Yotes, and Ducks. Contenders are contenders because they're well managed in all aspects.

Basically, Conroy just needs to replicate what Treliving was doing between 2014-2020, but with better coaching hires.

[Burning Beard]

Just draft as much as possible. Draft, draft and draft some more. And keep drafting. Obviously the higher you draft the better, but as this year demonstrates even selling off everything not nailed down a team can still out-perform expectations. Luckily there is still a ton of picks to try to strike big with. They have a great looking young goalie and a winning g AHL team. Keep drafting as much as you can and building and control what you can.

[madmike]

Bottom line is yes it’s possible, but it requires the Flames to draft very well.

Tanking does make it easier, but it’s no guarantee, especially with the lottery.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Fans rooting for tanking is one of the most negative trends in sports. I get it the reasons why, but something if fundamentally broken when fans are upset that their team tried to win (e.g. Patriots last win of the season).
Which is why I favor doing something dramatic to increase the randomization of the lottery even further (for non playoff teams) or using reverse standings of some sort (e.g. based on point percentage after teams have been eliminated).
Do something to take tanking off the table as a possible tactic.

The non-playoff teams could have a tournament for draft order. This would produce extra revenues and give every team meaningful post-season games.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by troutman

The non-playoff teams could have a tournament for draft order. This would produce extra revenues and give every team meaningful post-season games.

That doesn’t really solve the bad teams staying bad though.

[CliffFletcher]

I don’t have a problem with tanking or fans cheering for losses. The NHL is designed to be cyclical, and that’s a good thing. There would be even fewer trades if every team was trying to win the Cup every year.

Fans of bad teams still have something to cheer for in young stars. It’s a lot more fun being a Sharks fan this season and watching Celebrini blossom as a star and inspiring hope for the future than if they’d been hovering around 20th overall the last few seasons watching Hertl and Meier try to lead them to a wildcard spot.

[Vinny01]

What is the definition of tanking? Is it 3-5 top 5 picks? Is it needing multiple top 3 picks? Is it multiple picks in the top 10?

Flames picked 6th in 13, 4th in 14 and 6th in 16 while using their 1st in 15 as part of a package to land the 9th overall pick from 11 who was later packaged to return the 5th pick in 13 and the 5th pick in 15.

So far in this build they have picked 9th overall once and likely will have a couple more top 10 picks before a sustainable playoff team can be built.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

What is the definition of tanking? Is it 3-5 top 5 picks? Is it needing multiple top 3 picks? Is it multiple picks in the top 10?

Flames picked 6th in 13, 4th in 14 and 6th in 16 while using their 1st in 15 as part of a package to land the 9th overall pick from 11 who was later packaged to return the 5th pick in 13 and the 5th pick in 15.

So far in this build they have picked 9th overall once and likely will have a couple more top 10 picks before a sustainable playoff team can be built.

Tanking is a purposeful plan to be as bad as possible in my opinion and is rare. Teams usually end up in a rebuild through a combo of natural cycles and bad luck. The Flames entered a rebuild after the Iggy era and actually put together a strong core that fell apart due to a combination of factors.