It’s back to a coin flip before accounting for convention bumps and if they are transient or permanent. National +2/+3 should be enough to carry the key swing states. Now with RFK dropping out and the conventions done we should get some good pre-debate poll numbers to see where things are at.
There's also Gen-z voters that don't answer calls from pollsters. We'll also see a lot of republican Haley voters casting their votes for Harris.