[Kent Wilson Article] “self-satisfied mediocrity”

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Meh.

Just tank and win lotteries!

Seems to me dude has been on the I’m only happy and vocal when everyone else is miserable bus for as long as this site has been around.

Tanking is the easiest, laziest, and most random path to success. It is not a plan.

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by Yamer

The guy who wrote an entire article about the "Kulak miscalculation"? Didn't he also announce his "retirement" regarding Flames journalism at some point?

Pass.

Don't forget his long ass diatribe on here telling everyone how much he knows about the sport because he coached minor hockey.

Whatever Kent knows about the sport, organizational management, team building, player evaluation, and player development... it is less than what he can or will even acknowledge what he does not know.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

Meh.

Just tank and win lotteries!

Seems to me dude has been on the I’m only happy and vocal when everyone else is miserable bus for as long as this site has been around.

Tanking is the easiest, laziest, and most random path to success. It is not a plan.

Regardless of whether you call it tanking or not, the way you win Championships in the NHL starts by drafting in the Top-5, generally multiple times. After you do that, then there's plenty more to do - but you can't skip that part.

It's not easy, it's not lazy, and while there is an aspect of randomness (year to year fluctuations of draft class qulity being the biggest random component) - and yeah, it is a plan.

The weird dismissal of the fact that having the best players gives you the best chance to win is so...weird, and so very Calgary Flames.

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Regardless of whether you call it tanking or not, the way you win Championships in the NHL starts by drafting in the Top-5, generally multiple times. After you do that, then there's plenty more to do - but you can't skip that part.

It's not easy, it's not lazy, and while there is an aspect of randomness (year to year fluctuations of draft class qulity being the biggest random component) - and yeah, it is a plan.

The weird dismissal of the fact that having the best players gives you the best chance to win is so...weird, and so very Calgary Flames.

I don't really have much faith in a rebuild at all. Even last years tear down was complete luck.

We offered Lindholm 8x8 and he declined us.

We offered Hanifin 8.5x8 and he declined us.

We offered Tanev 4x4 and he declined us.

This wasn't some genius beginning to a rebuild. We lucked into it. But I do give Conroy credit for at least getting value for all those assets.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

Meh.

Just tank and win lotteries!

Seems to me dude has been on the I’m only happy and vocal when everyone else is miserable bus for as long as this site has been around.

Tanking is the easiest, laziest, and most random path to success. It is not a plan.

Quite honestly, when I saw the thread title detail (“self-satisfied mediocrity”)
I thought it referred to the guy, and was surprised to see it was a reference to his turn of phrase

Tanking has paid off (among other management decisions) on occasion (who knows, likely statistically probable, if you identify and capture the other relevant factors), but let’s not act like there’s anything near a 1:1 ratio between top draft picks and championships

And good lord, the xGF in game 6 was quite opposite the outcome

Pick a lane, son, don’t scat like Ella and blow stream of consciousness blather like you think you’re Kerouac

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Long before his value plummeted and my statement still stands. It was much less than what he wanted at the time.

I bet he's kicking himself now though.

Well thank god he wanted out, because that contract on top of Kadri and Huberdeau might have guaranteed a decade or more of Atlanta/Arizona types of futility. The only thing standing between the Calgary Flames and complete disaster was the players recognizing a sinking ship bevore management did. Not exactly a beacon for hope.

[CalgarySames]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

Meh.

Just tank and win lotteries!

Seems to me dude has been on the I’m only happy and vocal when everyone else is miserable bus for as long as this site has been around.

Tanking is the easiest, laziest, and most random path to success. It is not a plan.

Accepting that you're having a down year and that your team doesn't have the pieces it needs long term to be successful isn't tanking though. Knee jerk reactions to salvage a season, or hanging onto assets hoping you might luck into a playoff position are even less of a plan than "tanking" is. Colorado got Mackinnon and Makar by accepting that they were having down year's and planning accordingly. Did it require some luck to get who they got? Sure, but they also trusted in their scouting and development enough that even if they ended up with different players they would still be adding to long term success. Last year Calgary kept clinging to the hope that they might make the playoffs, I'm not saying they missed on better offers, but they did miss on an opportunity to have more control over the player they get with their 1st pick in this year's draft! And I don't think any of the returns we got this year are worth more than having that luxury. Chicago came to the end of a bunch of contracts for players who helped make the Blackhawks a championship caliber team for years. They made trades to stock up on picks, they took on cap dump contracts to get prospects back. They timed all this around a generational player coming up in the draft. You can't tell me that wasn't planned, you can't tell me that them toiling away putting patches on the team in an effort to stay "competitive" is a better plan. They accepted where they were at realistically and made the best of it. There is no shame in the Flames accepting a down season or two and planning around that!

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Tanking has paid off (among other management decisions) on occasion (who knows, likely statistically probable, if you identify and capture the other relevant factors), but let’s not act like there’s anything near a 1:1 ratio between top draft picks and championships

In a 10 year span, only 6 or 7 of the 32 teams in the league win the Cup. So most efforts to build a winner fail.

Tanking is far from guaranteed to produce a winner. But if it gives you a 30 per cent chance, and not tanking gives you a 20 per cent chance, then tanking is the way to go.

We can chalk up the Flames’ dire, near worst-in-the-league playoff record over the last 20 years to bad luck. Or we can look for something systemic. There’s no right or wrong way to be a fan. But those pointing to something systemic aren’t being irrationally negative.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

Sure I would like the flames to draft generational talent end or top and superstars who can lead us to a cup. Easier said than done.

Yes it is easier said than done but several teams have done just that to land superstars in the Oilers, Hawks, Leafs, Penguins, Lightning, etc. I don't want to hear about how the Avs and Lightning didn't plan on tanking because the reality is that by design or not, they still had seasons poor enough to draft top 3 in multiple seasons and without those poor seasons they don't have those elite players and Stanley Cups. There's really only one way to do it and if you don't commit you will never unearth the generational/elite talents so when I hear Conroy bring up the Dallas model all I hear is a GM that's telling his boss what he wants to hear and an organization that doesn't want to commit to the cycle of winning in today's professional sports which is to endure the lowest of the lows to get to the highest of the highs.

The one thing going for the Flames right now is the fact that the roster isn't very good and the prospect base has no emerging stars so there's a good chance leaner years are ahead and maybe that Avs or Lightning type of sason where the bottom just completely falls out and they end up being the worst or 2nd worst team in the league. That's clearly not what Edwards wants but the fallout from Treliving has the organization teetering on collapse regardless of his GM's efforts to plug the holes.

[Hackey]

They almost traded Markstrom. Key word ALMOST. It sure seems like ownership or upper management nixed that deal. Which is exactly the type of thing that concerns fans. They tried to sign every single UFA this year and none of them would. So if fans are hesitant with the actual direction it seems quite valid.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Oilers never really tanked. They just sucked hard. IIRC, they were essentially a cap team for most of their time 'tanking'. They are not a model to build around, and never will be. If they didn't get that fluke lottery win to grab McDavid, they wouldn't be where they are today. You can't build for fluke.


I still argue that people are looking too closely at models. Just step back and look at an overall picture.


The Flames are a rebuilding team. No, they aren't (so far anyway) going scorched earth. They are taking it down pretty close to the studs though.



In every media availability, Conroy keeps emphasizing that the draft will be the most important avenue for the Flames. Will only trade picks for 23 and younger players who may 'pop' and were buried in other teams.


He talks about looking at Dallas - was it meant as a blue-print? People take it as such. I think he means that it is an overall philosophy and approach to rebuilding rather than a step-by-step blueprint (which includes as one of the steps getting damn lucky). I don't believe for a second that 'luck' is going to be something ingrained it this solution. "The Dallas Model" is just about not tanking on purpose. Emphasize - ON PURPOSE.



Calgary today - without changes - are probably a bottom 5 team in the league. Making a Markstrom trade will make them worse. There will probably be a few more bodies moving out for futures this season - way too many wingers, and some of them are upcoming UFAs next season.



Let's not get carried away with the whole "Flames refuse to rebuild properly". Tanking is not necessarily rebuilding properly. As long as Conroy does not start spending draft capital and vets, let's just see where this goes before we anoint this as some failure of mediocrity.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Let's not get carried away with the whole "Flames refuse to rebuild properly". Tanking is not necessarily rebuilding properly. As long as Conroy does not start spending draft capital and vets, let's just see where this goes before we anoint this as some failure of mediocrity.

Well reading between the lines, the article was spurned by recent rumors of the Flames being interested in Necas and Conroy's comments on the Dallas model. I suppose the Flames could attempt a player for player deal there but chances are the Hurricanes don't want salary back and would want prospect or draft picks. Also it was Conroy that brought up the Dallas model and he doesn't bring up the Dallas model (not really a model) unless it's something that the Flames have looked at and considered. Kent is like a lot of Flames fans worried about the direction and I don't think anyone can blame him because this organization has been one of the least successful over the last 35 years and while you can give them a mulligan for the 90's, it's been a whole lot of mediocrity and extremely limited playoff success outside of 2004 and we are looking at current bad roster and lack of any elite stars in the organization. So while I do agree we should save our outrage for the day where/if the Flames actually do start trading draft picks/prospects for quick fixes, but at the same time this organization really hasn't earned the benefit of doubt from fans as their record of mediocrity speaks for itself.

[Robbob]

Yeah, the Oilers had so many misses that if they brought in a decent GM instead of Chiapet, they probably would have won a cup by now. Everyone talks about the swings and misses at the top of the draft, but they have had numerous years of multiple 1st rounders and high picks outside the 1st. They should have established themselves with a hell of a prospect pool to compliment McDavid and Draisaitl.

Looking back at HockeyDB in the years they drafted Draisaitl and McDavid they didn't have any 2nd and 3rd round picks those years. That is a team with no plan, they are just badly run and saved by the lottery ball.

[Yeah_Baby]

Somewhere on Earth 2 the 2018-2022 Flames were a Carolina type contender.
It didn't work out that way, and now we're looking at the wilderness for a few years. Hopefully we get it right this time.

But hey, might be more affordable for me to get tickets and have an excuse to visit my niece and go to a game next year.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Looking back at HockeyDB in the years they drafted Draisaitl and McDavid they didn't have any 2nd and 3rd round picks those years. That is a team with no plan, they are just badly run and saved by the lottery ball.

The point is that whether it be the Penguins, Hawks, Oilers, Lighting, etc, it always comes back to the lottery balls. It doesn't matter how well run or poorly run an organization is, without the lottery balls falling in their favor they don't get the elite players that brought them success. The Flames will not be able to build a cup winning team or even really good annual regular season team like the Leafs without being saved by the lottery ball.

[Yeah_Baby]

The Flames will likely finish bottom 6-10 next year, but when they move Markstrom I think there is a very good chance they're in the bottom five.

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Well reading between the lines, the article was spurned by recent rumors of the Flames being interested in Necas and Conroy's comments on the Dallas model. I suppose the Flames could attempt a player for player deal there but chances are the Hurricanes don't want salary back and would want prospect or draft picks. Also it was Conroy that brought up the Dallas model and he doesn't bring up the Dallas model (not really a model) unless it's something that the Flames have looked at and considered. Kent is like a lot of Flames fans worried about the direction and I don't think anyone can blame him because this organization has been one of the least successful over the last 35 years and while you can give them a mulligan for the 90's, it's been a whole lot of mediocrity and extremely limited playoff success outside of 2004 and we are looking at current bad roster and lack of any elite stars in the organization. So while I do agree we should save our outrage for the day where/if the Flames actually do start trading draft picks/prospects for quick fixes, but at the same time this organization really hasn't earned the benefit of doubt from fans as their record of mediocrity speaks for itself.

What's really frustrating is that the Flames had some decent players but they just didn't seem to know what to do with them. We had a lot of people defending management over the last few years but they never really seem to have a long term plan. Too many quick fixes with either players or coaches that never panned out. You have Sam Bennett constantly pushed down the lineup even though he's one of our high draft picks playing well for another team, which to me points to Calgary management not knowing what they're doing. We should have created a situation where none of those guys wanted to leave that's what Calgary has to figure out how to make players want to stay here, instead we make excuses and blame the players for wanting out. In my opinion Sam Bennett was the first piece that caused a close group of guys to dismantle and want out. We missed the guy at the top like Iggy who brought the whole team together and they all wanted to play for each other. When we took Sam Bennett out we took a big part of that. I know Florida gets that drive and leadership from both Tkachuk and Bennett. I think the idea of the guys wanted out had a lot more to do with the organization than it had to do with the players.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

I don't really have much faith in a rebuild at all. Even last years tear down was complete luck.

We offered Lindholm 8x8 and he declined us.

We offered Hanifin 8.5x8 and he declined us.

We offered Tanev 4x4 and he declined us.

This wasn't some genius beginning to a rebuild. We lucked into it. But I do give Conroy credit for at least getting value for all those assets.

Hanifin was offered 7.5 and I think he was the only one they got serious with throughout the season.

They also made Zadorov throw a tantrum and ask for a trade by not allowing him to extort us for a 5x5. They also made Toffoli ask for a trade by telling him is not a priority.

Conroy said himself he knew Lindholm was going to be traded, just not when at the beginning of the season. I would assume they knew full well what his ask was, and they lowballed him in his mind to say they "tried".

They agreed to trade Tanev in November.

Some of it was luck, and it is scary to think if Lindholm actually took our offer, but he made rebuilding trades not hockey trades which makes me think he is fully onboard on rebuilding this thing.

The also had a deal to trade Markstrom. I don't know any team that is trying to compete who trades away their starting goalie mid season, who still has 2 years left on his deal.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

The point is that whether it be the Penguins, Hawks, Oilers, Lighting, etc, it always comes back to the lottery balls. It doesn't matter how well run or poorly run an organization is, without the lottery balls falling in their favor they don't get the elite players that brought them success. The Flames will not be able to build a cup winning team or even really good annual regular season team like the Leafs without being saved by the lottery ball.

I think when the franchise players come around like McDavid, Bedard, etc, absolutely it's lottery luck. And rarely is it fair.

But a contending team can be built on hitting 2-3 top 10 picks that are core players and draft meaningful contributors with top 3-round picks to supplement.

In other words, it's not McKenna or bust. Doing over our Tkachuk era and not making some of the same mistakes by rushing the rebuild, it's a different picture, and this very well could have been a contending roster.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Well reading between the lines, the article was spurned by recent rumors of the Flames being interested in Necas and Conroy's comments on the Dallas model. I suppose the Flames could attempt a player for player deal there but chances are the Hurricanes don't want salary back and would want prospect or draft picks. Also it was Conroy that brought up the Dallas model and he doesn't bring up the Dallas model (not really a model) unless it's something that the Flames have looked at and considered. Kent is like a lot of Flames fans worried about the direction and I don't think anyone can blame him because this organization has been one of the least successful over the last 35 years and while you can give them a mulligan for the 90's, it's been a whole lot of mediocrity and extremely limited playoff success outside of 2004 and we are looking at current bad roster and lack of any elite stars in the organization. So while I do agree we should save our outrage for the day where/if the Flames actually do start trading draft picks/prospects for quick fixes, but at the same time this organization really hasn't earned the benefit of doubt from fans as their record of mediocrity speaks for itself.

I have been openly questioning Treliving's success in his time over the last few years, as I thought that the Flames' last rebuild was a failure purely based on success. A GM is responsible for everything underneath him, and with only having 2 playoff series wins during his time here, I find it impossible to categorize him as having had a successful tenure here. He did some good things - many in fact. However, when he took over, the Flames had a fairly promising start to their rebuild, and it flat-lined under him.



Two of his more egregious missteps (IMO of course) was the amount of draft capital spent on trades, and his eagerness to spend to the cap. This handcuffed the team.



Conroy has come in and done the opposite - he didn't sign UFAs. He didn't even sign guys to PTOs, and has shared his philosophy on that. He has also stated that he is looking at the draft as being the most important aspect for the Flames to build.


IMO, he is steadying the ship. I was all for either a rebuild starting a few years back, or finding more impact players to help Gaudreau and Co., rather than the (seemingly) constant overprice vet from the UFA bin, or the bleeding of draft capital on support players that did not move the needle.


I disagree with the notion of looking back 35 years assuming that things will stay the same. We can't know specifically how much Edwards (or any other owner) meddles with decisions, but they allowed many decisions that go against the grain of what a contingent of fans say that they do. They are friends with Sutter, but had no qualms about firing him and paying him not to work here. Hartley was also one of the higher-priced coaches at the time. The "organization being cheap on coaches" has in my opinion been proven to be nothing short of a completely contrived fallacy, and the truth lies somewhere between "good coaches would rather coach elsewhere" and "Bad GMs hire bad coaches".



Conroy gets a clean slate for me. I am neither a blind pom-pom waving optimist, but I also think that a new GM can drastically change the direction of an organization. Thus far, I have agreed with the moves that Conroy has made, as well as whatever information that he has given in his media availabilities. I am much more optimistic about a proper rebuild occurring under Conroy than what we saw under Trelving (and to some extent, Burke, who wasn't shy about wanting a fast rebuild).


My disconnect with a lot of people is my assertion that Calgary is very much a team that is rebuilding. Now, if I see Conroy suddenly spending draft capital on win-now players, and trying to make this team into a playoff team in the next season or two, I will join this group of people who are skeptical.


I think the biggest question arises in: "Where do you think this team will finish next season?"



I have them finishing comfortably in the bottom 5 of the standings. Comfortably. If you have them higher than this, then I can more readily understand your frustrations and skepticism. The only way I see them coming out of the bottom 5 is either Conroy spending a lot of draft capital on win now trades, and Wolf stealing a season.


There are too many wingers here already. I expect a couple more 'players for futures' deal, plus Markstrom (who I argue they can't really bring back). I think this is absolutely a rebuilding squad, and I do expect a top 5 pick (and hoping for some lottery luck in the next two-three drafts). This is partially why I am optimistic.