“Make it to the playoffs an anything could happen"

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dino7c

sorry I have had how many years of hearing about how shrewd the Sens and Sabres are

there is a middle ground to losing on purpose

even the Oilers, nobody in the history of the league has tanked so bad and they are down to a 2 year window and IMO 10 game win streak against bottom feeders aside I don't think they can beat a deep team in a 7 game series. They certainly won't be better next year. Tick tock

There needs to be a balance between "Playoffs at all cost" and "Tank to lose on purpose" though.

I think following either path can be just as dangerous.

If you tank to lose on purpose you may cut too deep to the core of the team and not have the base to add the young assets to when actually trying to build the team back up and get stuck in a perpetual re-build.

If you go to "playoffs at all cost" you're probably making short term decisions, and not properly managing your assets or acquiring the top end talent you need to succeed.

Either path is likely to fail IMO.

The right path IMO is still "What do I need to do to build a top 10 team" and I think for the Flames right now that doesn't necessarily mean "I need to tear it down to studs and do a 5-8 year re-build" but I do think it means that you can't let the short term shiny jewel of the playoffs blind you from long term success.

Letting Tanev and Lindholm walk for nothing does not help this team become a top 10 team. I'd argue giving them long term deals or raises wouldn't help either. The assets you can acquire probably do help you though longer term.

Hanifin is a tougher subject because I do think trading him can help towards being a top 10 team, and I think re-signing him could help towards being a top 10 team. It really all comes down to the equation of "What does he cost to re-sign" vs "What trade offers are on the table for him".

So really what the Flames can't do is make the short term decision of "we need to keep these guys to make the playoffs this year" because IMO that would be in direct conflict of building a team that is a sustainable top 10 team over the long term.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

You can make a case these teams did not rip it apart to get there, they were there due to being poorly managed.

The continue to be poorly managed, doesn't mean the strategy is bad.

Right now, Flames might be top 3 worst teams on paper when it comes to the next 5 years. I'd take Buffalo squad move forward

yep, they are building something special

never heard that about them 10 years ago

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

There needs to be a balance between "Playoffs at all cost" and "Tank to lose on purpose" though.

I think following either path can be just as dangerous.

If you tank to lose on purpose you may cut too deep to the core of the team and not have the base to add the young assets to when actually trying to build the team back up and get stuck in a perpetual re-build.

If you go to "playoffs at all cost" you're probably making short term decisions, and not properly managing your assets or acquiring the top end talent you need to succeed.

Either path is likely to fail IMO.

The right path IMO is still "What do I need to do to build a top 10 team" and I think for the Flames right now that doesn't necessarily mean "I need to tear it down to studs and do a 5-8 year re-build" but I do think it means that you can't let the short term shiny jewel of the playoffs blind you from long term success.

Letting Tanev and Lindholm walk for nothing does not help this team become a top 10 team. I'd argue giving them long term deals or raises wouldn't help either. The assets you can acquire probably do help you though.

Hanifin is a tougher subject because I do think trading him can help towards being a top 10 team, and I think re-signing him could help towards being a top 10 team. It really all comes down to the equation of "What does he cost to re-sign" vs "What trade offers are on the table for him".

So really what the Flames can't do is make the short term decision of "we need to keep these guys to make the playoffs this year" because IMO that would be in direct conflict of building a team that is a sustainable top 10 team over the long term.

obviously

unless I missed it I don't think anyone said go all in and let the UFAs walk for nothing

Make good trades, picks and players will be coming back, get Kylington back, see what happens

Huge underdog against Vancouver with SN pumping their tires in round one?

yes please...the Flames pick isn't going that low this season anyway, they are substantially better than the bottom feeders. I'm not gonna cry if its 4 spots worse because they won a few games. Heck Zary was in that range and he is one of the best rookies in the league.


we have one poster yelling at a cloud, I guess I should just let him

[DeluxeMoustache]

Every year 16 teams make the playoffs and without fail, 93.75 percent of them don’t win the cup

Every year, it’s like clockwork

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dino7c

obviously

unless I missed it I don't think anyone said go all in and let the UFAs walk for nothing

Make good trades, picks and players will be coming back, get Kylington back, see what happens

Huge underdog against Vancouver with SN pumping their tires in round one?

yes please...the Flames pick isn't going that low this season anyway, they are substantially better than the bottom feeders


we have one poster yelling at a cloud, I guess I should just let him

Really though that thought is only partially directed at you.

We know which way this organization has leaned historically and that is "playoffs at all costs"

I'm really hoping Conroy and Co. can break the cycle here though and make the right long term decision. I think they will though since they won't want to get burned by guys walking for nothing.

[dino7c]

Flames have already traded 2 pending UFAs

one was their leading scorer last year...both trades look like wins. Picks and a younger player that is playing awesome.

I wouldn't be too worried, its a new era


I mean the Flames traded Zadorov for picks and their record improved since the deal and they are closer to the playoffs...as much as that gets some posters hot the stats can't be denied

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

so don't watch? like what are point are you trying to make here?

the team is 22 points up on the Sharks, they aren't a bottom team this season. Nobody is saying go all in.

Should they get in I think they will be right there with most of the other average teams in the league. Flames goaltending and D is currently better than a lot of these supposed contenders. Aren't they all trying to trade for our guys haha.

I will watch but I can look at the roster and criticize it because it isn’t good enough


I’m not like an Oilers fan. They been planning parades since they drafted hall. Every year they overrate their team ignore all their flaws and plan the parade until they lose then they toss the jersey on the ice because they all truly think every year is their year

I can enjoy watching the young guys play well. Lots to be happy with this year but still step back and evaluate and know it is not happening this year

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

There needs to be a balance between "Playoffs at all cost" and "Tank to lose on purpose" though.

I think following either path can be just as dangerous.

If you tank to lose on purpose you may cut too deep to the core of the team and not have the base to add the young assets to when actually trying to build the team back up and get stuck in a perpetual re-build.

If you go to "playoffs at all cost" you're probably making short term decisions, and not properly managing your assets or acquiring the top end talent you need to succeed.

Either path is likely to fail IMO.

The right path IMO is still "What do I need to do to build a top 10 team" and I think for the Flames right now that doesn't necessarily mean "I need to tear it down to studs and do a 5-8 year re-build" but I do think it means that you can't let the short term shiny jewel of the playoffs blind you from long term success.

Letting Tanev and Lindholm walk for nothing does not help this team become a top 10 team. I'd argue giving them long term deals or raises wouldn't help either. The assets you can acquire probably do help you though.

Hanifin is a tougher subject because I do think trading him can help towards being a top 10 team, and I think re-signing him could help towards being a top 10 team. It really all comes down to the equation of "What does he cost to re-sign" vs "What trade offers are on the table for him".

So really what the Flames can't do is make the short term decision of "we need to keep these guys to make the playoffs this year" because IMO that would be in direct conflict of building a team that is a sustainable top 10 team over the long term.

Depending on the year, the lottery changes your chances up or down also. Buffalo intentionally tanked for McDavid, lost the lottery and got Eichel, who's a fine player but not anywhere near McDavid (plus had the big injury). OTOH the Avs don't bottom nealry so badly, pick 4th and get Makar. Or it's 2014 and the top 10 picks generally are underwhelming. Dylan Larkin at 15 is as good as Sam Reinhart at 2.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

I will watch but I can look at the roster and criticize it because it isn’t good enough


I’m not like an Oilers fan. They been planning parades since they drafted hall. Every year they overrate their team ignore all their flaws and plan the parade until they lose then they toss the jersey on the ice because they all truly think every year is their year

I can enjoy watching the young guys play well. Lots to be happy with this year but still step back and evaluate and know it is not happening this year

Congrats Kreskin

like has been posted 93% of playoff teams won't win the cup because they aren't good enough

31 of 32 NHL teams will suffer a similar fate

Who exactly is planning a parade? like I said yelling at a cloud

you are getting mad about things that nobody is saying

Trade the UFAs, maybe sign Hanifin

if they draft 15th instead of 12th I won't lose any sleep because of a few wins...with many young players leading the charge

one of the best picks in franchise history was 15th...way better player than their 4th overall

so much is left up to chance its not worth worrying about 24/7

should have picked the 3rd ranked Broudeur over the 1st ranked Kidd

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by dino7c

"try to go for Bedard" is also a ridiculously terrible strategy

Sabres tried to go for McDavid and have missed the playoffs 13 years in a row? 14? tough to keep track

“Tank, it’s the only way to get better”
I want to be clear that this is a flawed quantitively analysis. Basically I am going to count when the first time a team drafted 1st since 2006 ( the salary cap era) and then count the amount of time before they made the playoffs again. It’s going to be a jumbled mess because players like Erik Johnson get traded. This isn’t the law; it’s just meant to give perspective.

I know this is a gross over simplification, if you don’t like it do a deep dive with better methodology please.


2006 St Louis Blues make the playoffs in 2008 2 years
2007 Chicago Blackhawks make the playoffs 2009 2 years
2008 Tampa Bat Lightening make the playoffs 2011 4 years
2009 New York Islanders make the playoffs 2013 4 years
2010 Edmonton Oilers make the playoffs 2017 7 years
2011 Edmonton Oilers make the playoffs 2017
2012 Edmonton Oilers make the playoffs 2017
2013 Colorado Avalanche make the playoffs 2014 1 year
2014 Florida Panthers make the playoffs 2016 2 years
2015 Edmonton Oilers make the playoffs 2017 2 years
2016 Toronto Maple Leafs make the playoffs 2017 1 year
2017 New Jersey Devils make the playoffs 2018 1 year
2018 Buffalo Sabres yet to make the playoffs
2019 New Jersey Devils make the playoffs 2023 4 years
2020 New York Rangers make the playoffs 2022 2 years
2021 Buffalo Sabres yet to make the playoffs
2022 Montreal Canadiens yet to make the playoffs
2023 Chicago Blackhawks yet to make the playoffs


Okay we know that’s flawed, how about we look at how soon after finishing last in the NHL before making the playoffs again.

2006 St Louis Blues drafted 1st OA make the playoffs in 2008 2 years
2007 Philadelphia Flyers drafted 2nd OA make the playoffs in 2008 1 year
2008 Los Angeles Kings drafted 2nd OA make the playoffs in 2010 2 years
2009 New York Islanders drafted 1st OA make the playoffs 2013 4 years
2010 Edmonton Oilers drafted 1st OA make the playoffs 2017 7 years
2011 Edmonton Oilers drafted 1st OA make the playoffs 2017
2012 Columbus Blue Jackets drafted 2nd OA make the playoffs 2014 2 years
2013 Florida Panthers drafted 2nd OA make the playoffs 2016 3 years
2014 Buffalo Sabres drafted 2nd OA yet to make the playoffs
2015 Buffalo Sabres drafted 2nd OA yet to make the playoffs
2016 Toronto Maple Leafs drafted 1st OA make the playoffs 2017 1 year
2017 Colorado Avalanche drafted 4th OA make the playoffs 2018 1 year
2018 Buffalo Sabres drafted 1st OA yet to make the playoffs
2019 Ottawa Senators drafted 19th OA yet to make the playoffs
2020 Detroit Red Wings drafted 4th OA yet to make the playoffs
2021 Buffalo Sabres drafted 1st OA yet to make the playoffs
2022 Montreal Canadiens drafted 1st OA yet to make the playoffs
2023 Anaheim Ducks drafted 2nd OA yet to make the playoffs

[gvitaly]

I think it has to do more with the body of work a team has through several seasons other than just the Standings in that one season. Like STL, they were 12th, but they made the playoffs in 7 of the last 8, had a conference final loss, and 2 division titles.

So far the exceptions for me were MTL in the COVid years, and DAL, on the back of a great retool, Heiskanen and Klingberg contributing early. I'll do 2006-2016 a bit later.

• 2023 - VGK 4 - 1 FLA
  • Golden Knights
    • Regular season Standings: 5th, 1st West, 1st Pacific
    • Recent playoffs:
      • Made it in: 5 out of the last 6
      • Results: 1SCF loss, 2CF losses, 1 R1 loss
    • Regular seasons in that span:
      • Division titles: 3
      • Conference titles: 1
      • League finishes: 2nd, 5th x 2, 8th, 16th, 17th
  • Panthers
    • Regular season Standings: 17th, 8th East, 4th Atlantic
    • Recent playoffs:
      • Made it in: 4 out of the last 4
      • Results: 1 R2 loss, 2 R1 losses
    • Regular seasons in that span:
      • Division titles: 1
      • Conference titles: 1
      • League finishes: 1st, 4th, 15th, 17th
• 2022 - COL 4 - 2 TBL
  • Avalanche
    • Regular season Standings: 2nd, 1st West, 1st Central
    • Recent playoffs:
      • Made it in: 5 out of the last 5
      • Results: 3 R2 losses, 1 R1 loss
    • Regular seasons in that span:
      • Division titles: 2
      • Conference titles: 1-2*
        • 1st in the league in the COVID season, but there wasn't a conference
      • League finishes: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 17th x 2
  • Lightning
    • Regular season Standings: 8th, 5th East, 3rd Atlantic
    • Recent playoffs:
      • Made it in: 8 out of the last 9
      • Results: 2 SCF wins, 1 SCF loss, 2 CF losses, 2 R1 losses
    • Regular seasons in that span:
      • Division titles: 2
      • Conference titles: 2
      • League finishes: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 8th x 3, 12th, 18th.
• 2021 - TBL 4 - 1 MTL
  • Lightning
    • Regular season Standings: 8th, 3rd in Discover Central
    • Recent playoffs:
      • Made it in: 7 out of the last 8
      • Results: 1 SCF wins, 1 SCF loss, 2 CF losses, 2 R1 losses
    • Regular seasons in that span:
      • Division titles: 2
      • Conference titles: 2
      • League finishes: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 8th x 2, 12th, 18th.
  • Canadiens
    • Regular season Standings: 18th, 4th in Scotia North
    • Recent playoffs:
      • Made it in: 2* out of the last 2
        • Thanks to the play-in round
      • Results: R1 loss
    • Regular seasons in that span:
      • Division titles: 0
      • Conference titles: 0
      • League finishes: 18th, 24th
• 2020 - TBL 4 - 2 DAL
  • Lightning
    • Regular season Standings: 4th, 2nd East, 2nd Atlantic
    • Recent playoffs:
      • Made it in: 6 out of the last 7
      • Results: 1 SCF loss, 2 CF losses, 2 R1 losses
    • Regular seasons in that span:
      • Division titles: 2
      • Conference titles: 2
      • League finishes: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 8th, 12th, 18th.
  • Stars
    • Regular season Standings: 10th, 4th West, 3rd Central
    • Recent playoffs:
      • Made it in: 2 out of the last 2
      • Results: 1 R2 loss
    • Regular seasons in that span:
      • Division titles: 0
      • Conference titles: 0
      • League finishes: 10th, 15th
• 2019 - STL 4 - 2 BOS
  • Blues
    • Regular season Standings: 12th, 5th West, 3rd Central
    • Recent playoffs:
      • Made it in: 7 out of the last 8
      • Results: 1 CF loss, 2 R2 losses, 3 R1 loss
    • Regular seasons in that span:
      • Division titles: 2
      • Conference titles: 0
      • League finishes: 3rd x 2, 4th x 2, 6th, 10th, 12th, 18th
  • Bruins
    • Regular season Standings: 3rd, 2nd East, 1st Atlantic
    • Recent playoffs:
      • Made it in: 10 out of the last 12
      • Results: 1 SCF win, 1 SCF loss, 4 R2 losses, 3 R1 losses
    • Regular seasons in that span:
      • Division titles: 4
      • Conference titles: 2
      • League finishes: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th x 2, 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th
• 2018 - WSH 4 - 1 VGK
  • Capitals
    • Regular season Standings: 6th, 3rd East, 1st Metropolitan
    • Recent playoffs:
      • Made it in: 10 out of the last 11
      • Results: 6 R2 losses, 3 R1 losses
    • Regular seasons in that span:
      • Division title: 8
      • Conference titles: 4
      • League finishes: 1st x 3, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 9th, 10th, 12th, 15th, 17th.
  • Golden Knights
    • Regular season Standings: 5th, 3rd West, 1st Pacific
    • Recent playoffs:
      • Made it in: For the first time ever
      • Results: First year in the league
    • Regular seasons in that span:
      • Division titles: 1
      • Conference titles: 0
      • League finishes: 5th
• 2017 - PIT 4 - 2 NSH
  • Penguins
    • Regular season Standings: 2nd, 2nd East, 2nd Metropolitan
    • Recent playoffs:
      • Made it in: 11 out of the last 11
      • Results: 2 SCF wins, 1SCF loss, 1 CF loss, 2 R2 losses, 4 R1 losses
    • Regular seasons in that span:
      • Division title: 3
      • Conference titles: 1
      • League finishes: 2nd x 2, 4th x 4, 6th, 8th x2, 10th, 15th
  • Predators
    • Regular season Standings: 16th, 8th West, 4th Central
    • Recent playoffs:
      • Made it in: 10 out of the last 13
      • Results: 3 R2 losses, 6 R1 losses
    • Regular seasons in that span:
      • Division titles: 0
      • Conference titles: 0
      • League finishes: 3rd, 5th, 6th x 2, 10th x 2, 14th, 16th x 2, 17th, 19th, 20th, 27th

[dino7c]

I mean if you did a 5 year stat on the Flames they would also have a 2nd overall and 2 division titles lol

the year one Vegas team and the last season Vegas team are barely recognizable

I know some of you are convinced the Flames finish 17th every season but it actually hasn't happened very often

Unless I am mistaken only Vegas and Calgary have won the Pacific since Vegas came into the league

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I mean if you did a 5 year stat on the Flames they would also have a 2nd overall and 2 division titles lol

the year one Vegas team and the last season Vegas team are barely recognizable

I know some of you are convinced the Flames finish 17th every season but it actually hasn't happened very often

It's more that the Flames haven't drafted in the top 10 since 2016. 7 years. In that 7 years the Flames have won 1 playoff series, and that player has left the team. We are on track now to miss the playoffs two season in a row for the first time since 2015. It's time we get another high draft pick.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

It's more that the Flames haven't drafted in the top 10 since 2016. 7 years. In that 7 years the Flames have won 1 playoff series, and that player has left the team. We are on track now to miss the playoffs two season in a row for the first time since 2015. It's time we get another high draft pick.

well the team is too good to get a really high one

sorry guys

worse luck next time I guess

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I mean if you did a 5 year stat on the Flames they would also have a 2nd overall and 2 division titles lol

the year one Vegas team and the last season Vegas team are barely recognizable

I know some of you are convinced the Flames finish 17th every season but it actually hasn't happened very often

I wasn't planning on bashing the Flames here and you're right if we did CGY it would be

• Recent playoffs:
  • Made it in: 3 out of the last 5
  • Results: 1 R2 loss, 2 R1 losses
• Regular seasons in that span:
  • Division titles: 2
  • Conference titles: 1
  • League finishes: 2nd, 6th, 16th, 19th, 20th

That said, most of the teams I listed consistently made the playoffs instead of 1 year in, 1 year out. I also think that the Flames were on the verge of becoming a contender before Gaudreau and Tkachuk left, so that would fit with the results.

Also since 2009-10 the Flames finished:
* 1-14: 2 times
* 15-20: 9 times
* 21-32: 3 times

[Yrebmi]

Thanked for "loosers" in 2006

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by dino7c

well the team is too good to get a really high one

sorry guys

worse luck next time I guess

Too good to get a quality draft pick, not good enough to make a run at the cup. Rinse Repeat.

[Fan in Exile]

The President's Trophy winner has only won two cups in the same timeframe. Those who finish out of the playoffs have won none. No one is advocating doing the minimum possible to get in but making the playoffs does give a team a chance, primes a team for future success and has other benefits.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Flames have already traded 2 pending UFAs

one was their leading scorer last year...both trades look like wins. Picks and a younger player that is playing awesome.

I wouldn't be too worried, its a new era


I mean the Flames traded Zadorov for picks and their record improved since the deal and they are closer to the playoffs...as much as that gets some posters hot the stats can't be denied

Jesus not this again.

The stats you are referring to is the standings, and I'm pretty sure the difference between the before and after Zadorov success rate for the team is something more than Zadorov out, Oesterle in.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Jesus not this again.

The stats you are referring to is the standings, and I'm pretty sure the difference between the before and after Zadorov success rate for the team is something more than Zadorov out, Oesterle in.

Not to mention the small sample size. About a week ago, the record was worse without Zadorov in the lineup.

Now it is better.

Perfect example of someone with strong opinion and actively seeks only data that supports it.