[Game Takes] Avalanche 4 Flames 1

[Steve Bozek]

Originally Posted by Bingo

What you do with a change is certainly talent, and the Flames have a drop in talent up front this season for sure.

Defensively it's the same goaltenders, and an improved top four with more strength up the middle.

By metrics year over year it's xGA60 2.37 vs 2.29 last year, and they're giving up about 1 high danger chance per 60 minutes of five on five play more.

Hard to absolve goaltending given all that.

I think you’re right about the goaltending, but the shooting skill of the forwards (other than Toffoli and maybe Lindholm) doesn’t match up with most of the high quality playoff bound teams, and the defence is not as good as last year. So the problem with this season’s Flames is mediocrity at all the key areas. I think Sutter’s system is the only reason they’re hovering around a playoff spot.

[Enoch Root]

I think the skill issue has been hugely overblown - is there a difference from team to team? Of course. But in a cap world, that difference is marginal. Are the Flames elite in that regard? No. Are they terrible? I doubt it very much, looking at the historical performance of the players.

There is a random, luck element to it. And confidence plays a HUGE factor. It has been a tough season for the Flames, and the worse things go, the harder everyone tries. And the harder you try, the less it flows naturally.

The Flames lead the league in posts hit - that is a luck/confidence thing for sure. A few more of those go in - let's say 10 (out of 50) - and most of their offensive numbers look fine.

As far as I know, there is no stat for it, but I bet they are also at or near the top of the league in missing the net with high danger chances - again, confidence: when things are going well, you hit the corner, and when things aren't going well, you try a little harder, and end up hitting the post or missing the net.

My guess is that next, year, things will normalize again. Fresh year, fresh start, and confidence returns. Suggesting this team has less talent, and somehow can't shoot as well as other teams, is a pretty silly conclusion to make, IMO. A little more luck, and a little more confidence (that comes with that luck), and they are right back where they should be.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I think the skill issue has been hugely overblown - is there a difference from team to team? Of course. But in a cap world, that difference is marginal. Are the Flames elite in that regard? No. Are they terrible? I doubt it very much, looking at the historical performance of the players.

There is a random, luck element to it. And confidence plays a HUGE factor. It has been a tough season for the Flames, and the worse things go, the harder everyone tries. And the harder you try, the less it flows naturally.

The Flames lead the league in posts hit - that is a luck/confidence thing for sure. A few more of those go in - let's say 10 (out of 50) - and most of their offensive numbers look fine.

As far as I know, there is no stat for it, but I bet they are also at or near the top of the league in missing the net with high danger chances - again, confidence: when things are going well, you hit the corner, and when things aren't going well, you try a little harder, and end up hitting the post or missing the net.

My guess is that next, year, things will normalize again. Fresh year, fresh start, and confidence returns. Suggesting this team has less talent, and somehow can't shoot as well as other teams, is a pretty silly conclusion to make, IMO. A little more luck, and a little more confidence (that comes with that luck), and they are right back where they should be.

Agreed ...

And I'd add goaltending to that too. The numbers in net have been terrible, but sometimes pucks just hit you. This year they're not. I'd imagine that will normalize as well.

[Enoch Root]

And I would make the same argument with the goaltenders - are other teams suddenly better shooters this year? Unlikely. More likely is that their confidence is down, and they are just letting in that extra 10% more goals as a result.

The difference from good, to average, to below average in the NHL is marginal. A little luck (good of bad), and a little more or less confidence, explains a good chunk of the difference.

[Enoch Root]

Just look at any individual player - from year to year, their production varies, sometimes a fair bit. Do they suddenly become better, then worse, then better players again? Or is there a random element that - for lack of better words or understanding - is luck and confidence?

[GioforPM]

Have the Flames dropped in talent that much though? Gaudreau and Huberdeau are similar talents over their respective careers - Huberdeau is having an off year but they are both pass-heavy PPG guys who had a monster season and got paid for it. Tkachuk out, Kadri in is a drop off but not huge, and Kadri plays centre. They added another puck moving Dman and dropped a hulking one.

The rest is pretty darn identical.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Have the Flames dropped in talent that much though? Gaudreau and Huberdeau are similar talents over their respective careers - Huberdeau is having an off year but they are both pass-heavy PPG guys who had a monster season and got paid for it. Tkachuk out, Kadri in is a drop off but not huge, and Kadri plays centre. They added another puck moving Dman and dropped a hulking one.

The rest is pretty darn identical.

Yes, that's my point.

Some fans talk like the Flames are talentless slugs, it's pretty ridiculous.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Have the Flames dropped in talent that much though? Gaudreau and Huberdeau are similar talents over their respective careers - Huberdeau is having an off year but they are both pass-heavy PPG guys who had a monster season and got paid for it. Tkachuk out, Kadri in is a drop off but not huge, and Kadri plays centre. They added another puck moving Dman and dropped a hulking one.

The rest is pretty darn identical.

The difference isn't necessarily overall talent, but imo the Flames didn't replace the players that left with similarly skilled players coming back in terms of controlling pucks, entering the zone, owning the PP and finishing plays. For now, we just hope it is a case of off years for a number of players, but as it stands now, I really believe this team needs to find another forward that can compensate for the above in addition to the obvious bounce back in net in order to get back to challenging for the division.

Maybe this comes internally via Pelletier, Wolf and Coronato, but that would be a big ask to hit those levels in effectively year one for each player. I do believe a major move in the offseason is going be necessary to correct this ahead of next season.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Have the Flames dropped in talent that much though? Gaudreau and Huberdeau are similar talents over their respective careers - Huberdeau is having an off year but they are both pass-heavy PPG guys who had a monster season and got paid for it. Tkachuk out, Kadri in is a drop off but not huge, and Kadri plays centre. They added another puck moving Dman and dropped a hulking one.

The rest is pretty darn identical.

Nope.

The underlying stats except for Medium Danger Shooting Percentage and Medium Danger Save Percentage are almost identical year over year.



Medium Danger shooting percentage dipped from 11.2% to 8.93% - that is .27 Goal per game decline.

Medium Danger save percentage dipped from 89.2% to 85.2% - that is a 0.37 goal per game decline.

Those two things right there make up the majority of difference in team goals for and goals against year over year.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Nope.

The underlying stats except for Medium Danger Shooting Percentage and Medium Danger Save Percentage are almost identical year over year.

Medium Danger shooting percentage dipped from 11.2% to 8.93% - that is .27 Goal per game decline.

Medium Danger save percentage dipped from 89.2% to 85.2% - that is a 0.37 goal per game decline.

Those two things right there make up the majority of difference in team goals for and goals against year over year.

And with both moves being in the medium danger area it's less about extraneous shot volume and more about luck, right? And with that I'm sure a decline in confidence with the bounces not going their way.

They're not hurting their numbers by shooting too often from far out.
They're not generating much less in high danger.
They're not giving up much more in high danger.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Nope.

The underlying stats except for Medium Danger Shooting Percentage and Medium Danger Save Percentage are almost identical year over year.

Medium Danger shooting percentage dipped from 11.2% to 8.93% - that is .27 Goal per game decline.

Medium Danger save percentage dipped from 89.2% to 85.2% - that is a 0.37 goal per game decline.

Those two things right there make up the majority of difference in team goals for and goals against year over year.

I'm not sure this disagrees with what I'm saying. I'm saying the individual talent level is similar, and the opportunities seems to be around the same, but for some reason this year they are flubbing them. There appears to be a chemistry issue maybe.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

And with both moves being in the medium danger area it's less about extraneous shot volume and more about luck, right? And with that I'm sure a decline in confidence with the bounces not going their way.

They're not hurting their numbers by shooting too often from far out.
They're not generating much less in high danger.
They're not giving up much more in high danger.

This is the way I read it.

In a lot of ways the signs just point to being really, really unlucky this year.

In terms of high danger they are down about 1 shot per game total - giving up 0.5 shots per game more than last year, and 0.5 shots less. Shooting percentage is relatively flat though, as is save percentage. That works out to a net of about -0.15 Goals per game - or a goal every 7 games.

Low Danger they are taking about the same amount of low danger shots as last year (this surprised me), and actually allowing about three fewer low danger shots. So that's not really a change either - the big change here is save percentage - which has led to a net of -0.1 Goals per Game - or a goal every 10 games.

Medium Danger is just crazy though. Giving up slightly more (0.33 shots per game) and taking slightly less (-0.45 shots per game) but still only a total of a 0.78 shot per game swing. But the percentages are just really cratering them here. Shooting percentage and Save percentage have both cratered.

And even though the shot volume in each area is relatively flat, it leads to a combined -0.64 goal per game swing.

That is crazy unlucky to me. Really I should probably have made this it's own thread.

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I'm not sure this disagrees with what I'm saying. I'm saying the individual talent level is similar, and the opportunities seems to be around the same, but for some reason this year they are flubbing them. There appears to be a chemistry issue maybe.

Some of it could be line talent.

Last year they had 1.83 Medium Danger Goals per 60 with Gaudreau and Tkachuk on the ice together, and 0.68 Medium Danger Goals Per 60 with those guys off. So the lost of those two really impacts the shooting percentage side.

But doesn't explain the giant dip on the medium danger save percentage side with the same two goalies.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Some of it could be line talent.

Last year they had 1.83 Medium Danger Goals per 60 with Gaudreau and Tkachuk on the ice together, and 0.68 Medium Danger Goals Per 60 with those guys off. So the lost of those two really impacts the shooting percentage side.

I very much think Huberdeau is as talented as Gaudreau, with Gaudreau a better (if not a lot faster) skater and puckhandler and Huberdeau better at maintaining and/or winning possession. Huberdeau may be a better passer.

Tkachuk is a better scorer and much better passer than Kadri, Kadri is a much better skater.

But moreover, Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk had some real chemistry (so did Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm). So many one timers from Lindholm. Kadri and Hubderdeau seem mismatched. Kadri doesn't give the puck to Huberdeau near enough and he certainly doesn't accept passes like Lindholm did. I think you could come a lot closer to the performance level with a different combo. Huberdeau should be a top line LW, Lindholm should be a top line C, and they are each playing with 2nd line level talent.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I very much think Huberdeau is as talented as Gaudreau, with Gaudreau a better (if not a lot faster) skater and puckhandler and Huberdeau better at maintaining and/or winning possession. Huberdeau may be a better passer.

Tkachuk is a better scorer and much better passer than Kadri, Kadri is a much better skater.

But moreover, Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk had some real chemistry (so did Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm). So many one timers from Lindholm. Kadri and Hubderdeau seem mismatched. Kadri doesn't give the puck to Huberdeau near enough and he certainly doesn't accept passes like Lindholm did. I think you could come a lot closer to the performance level with a different combo. Huberdeau should be a top line LW, Lindholm should be a top line C, and they are each playing with 2nd line level talent.

Dube - Lindholm - Huberdeau would make me happy, I want to see Huberdeau play with Dube all year.