Strength of Schedule Update

[Enoch Root]

To apply the SOS to the rest of the season, working on the assumption that they have played the equivalent of a .584 pace, if they continue to play at the same level, that would mean they would finish the season with:

.584 X 82 X 2 = 96 points

Currently they are on an 86 pt pace, due to the SOS, so the difference is 10 points. Fairly significant.

[Strange Brew]

Why would you extrapolate something that won’t continue? It’s very misleading.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Clearly math isn't your thing.

As pretty much everyone in this thread has agreed, they need to play better. There have been other problems. The point of the SOS issue is that it has ALSO contributed to, and heightened, their struggles. Full stop.

If the Flames SOS reverts to the mean, how many points above expected would you anticipate the rest of the way? Hint: they have lost 3 points to the mean thus far by your own calculation.

The Flames SOS has contributed about 2 to 4 points towards their results this year. Wow. Meanwhile some people have probably brought it up a hundred times. Seems disproportionate to me.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by dino7c

You are suggesting their schedule is slightly harder than average which isn't even close to being true. You are also not factoring in their division or conference in which they haven't played the bottom teams
The Flames have 23 games of 60 against
Anaheim, Chicago, SJ, Ottawa, Phoenix, Vancouver, Columbus...many of whom will be in absolute tank mode especially later in the year

Anaheim has ONE regulation win on December 1st

like I said we can bump this and decide how big a factor it is...every sportsbook I follow thinks its much bigger than 2 points.

You didn’t read post #1 did you?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

If the Flames SOS reverts to the mean, how many points above expected would you anticipate the rest of the way? Hint: they have lost 3 points to the mean thus far by your own calculation.

The Flames SOS has contributed about 2 to 4 points towards their results this year. Wow. Meanwhile some people have probably brought it up a hundred times. Seems disproportionate to me.

I already answered it above.

It's 10 points.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Why would you extrapolate something that won’t continue? It’s very misleading.

It's not misleading.

The league average is a .550 winning percentage. The Flames' competition has sported a .614 winning percentage. The Flames have played at a .523 pace. If we replace the competition's .614 with a .550, that means they would have earned 3 extra points so far.

Now, if we assume the Flames continue to play at the same level, and also assume that, for the whole season, the competition level would be .550, that means that the Flames would finish with 96 points.

I was simply replying to the post you made earlier about how many points they can expect to get back. You assumed 2 or 3, but you were wrong and I was showing the math.

[Icantwhisper]

What if the bottom dwelling teams get hot and they move up the standings before we play them???? Or are we assuming the standings stay the same till the end of the year?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Icantwhisper

What if the bottom dwelling teams get hot and they move up the standings before we play them???? Or are we assuming the standings stay the same till the end of the year?

That can and does happen. But when analyzing the impact, all you can do is hold all the variables constant.

Also, some good teams you face will be in slumps, so those things should theoretically average out as well.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

It's not misleading.

The league average is a .550 winning percentage. The Flames' competition has sported a .614 winning percentage. The Flames have played at a .523 pace. If we replace the competition's .614 with a .550, that means they would have earned 3 extra points so far.

Now, if we assume the Flames continue to play at the same level, and also assume that, for the whole season, the competition level would be .550, that means that the Flames would finish with 96 points.

I was simply replying to the post you made earlier about how many points they can expect to get back. You assumed 2 or 3, but you were wrong and I was showing the math.

I didn't "assume" anything. I stated that to date the Flames are down 3 points vs. expected because they have played a harder schedule.

You are comparing your 96 points calculation to the current pace of 86 points which would assume they continue to play the hardest schedule in the league for 82 games. That is is not going to happen.

Assuming they play an average schedule the rest of the way, they would finish with about 93 points. If by the end their schedule reverts to the mean, I would expect 96 points. Their tough schedule to date has cost them 3 points.

[dino7c]

You are totally ignoring the Flames division, which is not good and they have hardly played within it. Schedule is weighted towards conference and even more so to divisional opponents. Christ Seattle is listed for Calgary's hardest remaining games based on their record but pa-lease, would you rather play them or the Boston?
There schedule is not reverting to the mean like you think it is...did you not see my list of 23 games vs. the Bedard hopefuls?

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Icantwhisper

What if the bottom dwelling teams get hot and they move up the standings before we play them???? Or are we assuming the standings stay the same till the end of the year?

You can look at the strength of schedule based on the record of your opponent when you played them or with hindsight based on their record when you calculate it.

Neither are perfect.

True strength of schedule should factor in home/away, back to backs, winning or losing streaks, injuries at the time, backup goalies. All kinds of crap. I don't know if a guy like Sagarin incorporates that into his models. But really it's not much of an issue IMO with the NHL unlike say NCAAF.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by dino7c

You are totally ignoring the Flames division, which is not good and they have hardly played within it. Schedule is weighted to wards conference and even more so to divisional opponents. Christ Seattle is listed for Calgary's hardest remaining games based on their record but pa-lease, would you rather play them or the Boston?
There schedule is not reverting to the mean like you think it is...did you not see my list of 23 games vs. the Bedard hopefuls?

What? I think the Flames schedule will get easier, that is what reverting to the mean is.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

What? I think the Flames schedule will get easier, that is what reverting to the mean is.

They won't have a league average schedule by the end of the season...after 82 games their schedule will be below the mean based on the schedule being heavily weighted towards their division.
You are doing math like every team has an even schedule after 82...they don't
Flames have played only 5 games in their division (3-2) and all against the top 4 teams in the division, zero against the bottom 3.
Flames have a team in their division that has given out points in 22 of their 23 games. Calgary has not played ANY of the leagues bottom six teams.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by dino7c

They won't have a league average schedule by the end of the season...after 82 games their schedule will be below the mean based on the schedule being heavily weighted towards their division.
You are doing math like every team has an even schedule after 82...they don't
Flames have played only 5 games in their division (3-2) and all against the top 4 teams in the division, zero against the bottom 3.
Flames have a team in their division that has given out points in 22 of their 23 games. Calgary has not played ANY of the leagues bottom six teams.

We cam measure this though.

Let's look at Flames remaining SOS vs. Edmonton and Seattle.

Flames have easiest remaining schedule in the league.
Oilers 5th easiest
Seattle 9th easiest

All three have 60 games left.

Expected points for their opponents the rest of the way:

Flames: 62.6 points
Oilers: 64.7 points
Seattle: 65.7 points

So all things being equal, we'll expect Flames to gain 2.1 points on the Oilers and 3.1 points on Seattle.

It's not nothing. But it's really not that big of a deal.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

We cam measure this though.

Let's look at Flames remaining SOS vs. Edmonton and Seattle.

Flames have easiest remaining schedule in the league.
Oilers 5th easiest
Seattle 9th easiest

All three have 60 games left.

Expected points for their opponents the rest of the way:

Flames: 62.6 points
Oilers: 64.7 points
Seattle: 65.7 points

So all things being equal, we'll expect Flames to gain 2.1 points on the Oilers and 3.1 points on Seattle.

It's not nothing. But it's really not that big of a deal.

why just those teams? you cherry picked teams that also had hardish schedules. Flames aren't just competing with those two teams for a playoff spot. Also I will bet you $1000 the Flames gain more than 3.1 points on Seattle by years end.

Time will tell I think your numbers will turn out to be way low...would you honestly take the under on 97 points for the Flames? I sure as hell wouldn't

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by dino7c

why just those teams? you cherry picked teams that also had hardish schedules. Flames aren't just competing with those two teams for a playoff spot. Also I will bet you $1000 the Flames gain more than 3.1 points on Seattle by years end.

Time will tell I think your numbers will turn out to be way low...would you honestly take the under on 97 points for the Flames? I sure as hell wouldn't

I picked teams in the division with whom Flames will compete. Which team would you like to pick?

The 3.1 points is only based on SOS. I imagine Flames gain more than 20 points on Seattle but that's not because of the schedule.

Anyway this is not a prediction which you are just not understanding. It is simply isolating strength of schedule. It's not subjective, it's not a prediction, it's not cherry picked. It is just math. Record of teams played vs record of teams yet to play. That is all.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I picked teams in the division with whom Flames will compete. Which team would you like to pick?

The 3.1 points is only based on SOS. I imagine Flames gain more than 20 points on Seattle but that's not because of the schedule.

Anyway this is not a prediction which you are just not understanding. It is simply isolating strength of schedule. It's not subjective, it's not a prediction, it's not cherry picked. It is just math. Record of teams played vs record of teams yet to play. That is all.

I understand what you are trying to say but your math is wrong...multimillion dollar sportsbooks agree.

we can agree to disagree though

NHL will have some historic tanking this season and the Flames are playing these bums at just the right time, the later the better.

[Bingo]

Hilarious how this topic created four pages of debate.

For the most part nobody is saying the Flames are playing great but the schedule has been their undoing ... but we've seen that push back.

I don't think anyone is saying the schedule is a dozen points or more of an impact but we've seen a pushback.

People hate excuses I guess. The team shouldn't use them, but we certainly can. This one is a fact ... they've had a harder schedule. Some are treating this as if I walked out an opinion that the refs are harder on the Flames than other teams. It's not ... they've played better teams.

Is it a huge impact? Likely not. But three points is pretty huge in 22 games in my mind.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Hilarious how this topic created four pages of debate.

For the most part nobody is saying the Flames are playing great but the schedule has been their undoing ... but we've seen that push back.

I don't think anyone is saying the schedule is a dozen points or more of an impact but we've seen a pushback.

People hate excuses I guess. The team shouldn't use them, but we certainly can. This one is a fact ... they've had a harder schedule. Some are treating this as if I walked out an opinion that the refs are harder on the Flames than other teams. It's not ... they've played better teams.

Is it a huge impact? Likely not. But three points is pretty huge in 22 games in my mind.

I guess we disagree on the bolded. Maybe if the season ended today but thankfully it doesn't. IMO at this point it's more about how you're playing than the difference three points makes.

The strength of schedule is going to move around a lot earlier in the season too as team's winning percentages change more dramatically. For instance going into last night Seattle had the 9th easiest start to the season. After last night they were 11th. They didn't even play.

Agree with your earlier comment. Some people hate excuses of any type, guess that's where I am at.

Appreciate you putting some data forward vs. just wild proclamations of how arduous the schedule has been.

[dino7c]

It's not about an excuse it's about predicting future results IMO

It's December 1st and the Flames haven't played one game against the bottom 3 teams in the division or the bottom six teams in the league...that is unbelievable really.

When like 40% of the Flames games left are against teams gunning for Bedard I think it sets up pretty nicely. We shall see.