What would rebuilding look like?

[Badgers Nose]

I would have been cool with it last summer but that ship sailed and wont be back for 3-4 years.

No Sutter extension. Get a coach that can develop players. Maybe one of our own.

Flames could have traded high on a lot of guys and got high picks and prospects, with lots of cap space to take on bad contracts (need to fill a roster).

As others have said, I doubt they’d be much worse than this team.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

It would have been a lot easier to stomach and want to pursue a rebuild if things didn’t go so well for the Flames last year. Career years by practically the entire roster and the love for Sutter was unconditional and endless. Elite in net, low goals against, high goals for 111pts. If the team was on the bubble and Gaudreau and Tkachuk walked it would have been much easier to go down the path of a full tear down and let Oiler fans revel in the fact they did send the Flames to a rebuild. Moving Markstrom, Lindholm, Hanifin, Tanev, Tkachuk, Mangiapane for pure futures and cap dumps. Not signing Zadorov or Kadri and anticipating starting it over with a new coach and chase Bedard would have been a more palatable option. Last season was just too good. Markstrom was elite, Lindholm and Mangiapane looked like budding superstars. Anderson, Hanifin, Kylington all key pieces of the blueline for years to come. Replacing the free agent loss of Gaudreau with Kadri and turning Tkachuk in Huberdeau/Weegar felt like the team was able and ready to take a step forward not back. The team was too good and the fans were drunk of member berries of having Sutter behind the bench again that the rebuild path was not the obvious first choice. Some in hindsight are feeling regret and that is understandable but at the time it didn’t make a ton of sense to many including myself

Exactly.

When Gaudreau/Tkachuk walked, it still looked like the Flames had all the pieces but the top end offensive pieces. The defence, goaltending, and depth is extremely difficult to put together.

Now, the defensive depth isn't there, the goalies aren't playing well, and the top end superstar (Huberdeau), which was potentially an improvement, is playing like a 2nd liner.

If things had been like this last year, we probably wouldn't have run into the Oilers in the playoffs, and tear it down would've been the unquestionable answer.

The Flames are leading the league in posts hit. The also went from having some of the best injury luck in the league to the some of the worst. So a lot of what's going on is luck based and could even out.

People also underestimate how thin the line is between contender and bubble team. The Flames aren't the only team with an amazing season last year now playing below expectations.

[GreenLantern2814]

They have precisely 0 impact players under the age of 25.

It’s over. It didn’t work.

I understood wanting to give Iggy/Kipper every opportunity to cash one in, but this group?

Winning is accomplished with young star players. Contract status be damned - young elite talent is what moves the needle.

They don’t have any of it. They don’t have anyone coming.

Start thinking of Coronato like Sven - our first noteworthy offensive prospect in a while (since Tkachuk).

Zary and Pelletier are middle six guys at best, which is fine - they’re mid-20s picks, typically one of the weakest parts of the draft.

I wrote in another thread this team has no core, no centre - it’s not built around anything, it’s just a collection of reasonably talented guys, but no true franchise players.

Huberdeau is starting to give me Kessel vibes in that he’s undeniably an elite talent, but he can’t be your best player.

I wouldn’t stress too much over that, though. The floor is still $61M, you gotta pay somebody, and having someone like Huberdeau lead a rebuild is something I could easily get on board with. He strikes me as a good mentor type, based on what little I’ve seen.

They don’t have that many guys under contract past next year - Huberdeau, Kadri, Coleman, Weegar and Andersson, plus Markstrom. And if you’re tanking, nothing wrong with Markstrom gassing it every other night.

Kadri and Huberdeau is a solid pair to shield the kids and allow them to grow.

But don’t commit to this group like it could win anything.

It can’t. The goaltending isn’t good enough. At this point, it’s probably too late to even call up Wolf and hope he gets hot.

But Markstrom/Vladar is not getting them out of round 1, if it even gets them that far.

Selling high on Lindholm and Hanifin, who you didn’t even draft, would add at least two 1st round picks + 2 A prospects. Throw Toffoli in there as veteran scoring presence, you’re probably looking at least two seconds for him, if not more.

That could change the course of the franchise so quickly. They’d get worse in a hurry, which would give them a better chance at the top-2 picks you desperately need to build a contender in the NHL, and the young kids we already have would get seasoning.

I have zero expectations that will happen.

[Badgers Nose]

Not going to quote that crazy post.

A collection of talented guys describes lots of Cup winners. St Louis, Kings, Canes.

Franchise players come once every few drafts on average.

Look at the last 2 years of the new batch of big contracts as the next rebuild window. It ain't happening soon, nor should it.

Scorched Earth rebuilds work sometimes; Hawks, Pens but mostly don’t.

Even in Canada fans get impatient with shotty rebuild teams. Look north for the next jersey burning ceremony. Flames will never intentionally ice such a bad product. We should be thankful of that.

Identity is set by coach and new ones can change it. Few GMs get enough time to fully put their stamp on a project. And those that do sometimes have to compromise to satisfy the person paying the bills (that point hits close to home). So you will get conflicting visions applied to the project within the rebuild, making the kind of success you envision less likely.

Biggest problem right now is GM and coach dont agree on identity. One has to go. Probably wont be the guy that signed the big extension.

Sutter was the right guy to squeeze the last bit of goodness from the last core. But i have no idea why he was extended.

Better to strive for a plateau of goodness and tweak as you go. Perennial contender. When you catch lighting in a bottle like last year, put all your chips in. Some years you’ll miss. So do half the other teams, most of which are not ARI style jokes (i.e they are trying too).

Experts have picked Flames as contenders many of the last few years. Even they can’t predict freak shows like this season. Id rather suffer the bi-annual good/bad cycle than a tank rebuild.

[activeStick]

A rebuild would start with the gutting of the team's top players for picks. A good chunk on CP and the internet would cheer for this overdue tear down and eagerly follow the team the next season as prospects would get real shots st the NHL level and be on the opening night roster. The team would be bad, very bad. Like Columbus Bluejackets bad, but even worse. Yeah the kids would put effort in but it would just be terrible hockey. Most of the rebuild supporters would stick around in season 1. More casual fans would stop following by the end of year 1. Season 2 would begin with more promise and new prospects entering the fold. Team would suck again, maybe worse? Maybe the same or slightly better, but still bad. More casual fans would drop off and stop following the Flames. Org would lose season ticket holders and the Dome would likely see 12-13k on good nights. Under 10k maybe on many. After about 3 or 4 seasons of rebuilding with not much improvement (rebuilding is very hard) many of the ardent supporters of the rebuild years ago would have already stopped following the Flames so closely and support would be at an all time low for many years to come until they make the playoffs again.

[GreenLantern2814]

They picked the Flames as contenders when they had Gaudreau and Tkachuk.

Cap-era champions with top-3 selections on the roster:

Carolina - Eric Staal
Anaheim - Chris Pronger
Pittsburgh - Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, Jordan Staal
Chicago - Kane, Toews
LA - Doughty
Tampa - Stamkos, Hedman
Boston - Seguin
Colorado - MacKinnon, Landeskog
Washington - Ovechkin, Backstrom


St Louis and Detroit are the outliers.

Hitting on your Top-2 picks are essential if you want to have Success in the NHL - I don’t understand how this is even arguable.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by blankall

Exactly.

When Gaudreau/Tkachuk walked, it still looked like the Flames had all the pieces but the top end offensive pieces. The defence, goaltending, and depth is extremely difficult to put together.

Now, the defensive depth isn't there, the goalies aren't playing well, and the top end superstar (Huberdeau), which was potentially an improvement, is playing like a 2nd liner.

If things had been like this last year, we probably wouldn't have run into the Oilers in the playoffs, and tear it down would've been the unquestionable answer.

The Flames are leading the league in posts hit. The also went from having some of the best injury luck in the league to the some of the worst. So a lot of what's going on is luck based and could even out.

People also underestimate how thin the line is between contender and bubble team. The Flames aren't the only team with an amazing season last year now playing below expectations.

Agree with everything but the bolded...we are still top 5 most fortunate this season:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1622762411777306627

OK all year
Tanev's missed 10
Andersson and Huby 3 each

Our top 13 skaters by TOI (all over 15 mins) have missed a total of 19 games, and 10 of those are Tanev.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

They picked the Flames as contenders when they had Gaudreau and Tkachuk.

Cap-era champions with top-3 selections on the roster:

Carolina - Eric Staal
Anaheim - Chris Pronger
Pittsburgh - Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, Jordan Staal
Chicago - Kane, Toews
LA - Doughty
Tampa - Stamkos, Hedman
Boston - Seguin
Colorado - MacKinnon, Landeskog
Washington - Ovechkin, Backstrom


St Louis and Detroit are the outliers.

Hitting on your Top-2 picks are essential if you want to have Success in the NHL - I don’t understand how this is even arguable.

What if we get Johnny, Money and Tkatchuck level players? We have Huby, Lindy and Hanifin that were all high picks right now.

Your proposal is just as likely to get us back here as it is to work (and by work i mean having a team like last year).

You are saying tank hard and HOPE to win the lottery. #### that.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

They picked the Flames as contenders when they had Gaudreau and Tkachuk.

Cap-era champions with top-3 selections on the roster:

Carolina - Eric Staal
Anaheim - Chris Pronger
Pittsburgh - Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, Jordan Staal
Chicago - Kane, Toews
LA - Doughty
Tampa - Stamkos, Hedman
Boston - Seguin
Colorado - MacKinnon, Landeskog
Washington - Ovechkin, Backstrom


St Louis and Detroit are the outliers.

Hitting on your Top-2 picks are essential if you want to have Success in the NHL - I don’t understand how this is even arguable.

Seguin’s inclusion is a bit iffy. He was indeed a high pick but on the championship team he wasn’t a big factor. They made the finals with him as a bigger factor but when it came time to actually make another plush, he was the guy they moved. The present team which may be better, is led by lower picks.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

What if we get Johnny, Money and Tkatchuck level players? We have Huby, Lindy and Hanifin that were all high picks right now.

Your proposal is just as likely to get us back here as it is to work (and by work i mean having a team like last year).

You are saying tank hard and HOPE to win the lottery. #### that.

Edmonton has two top-3 players on the planet, only one of whom was a 1OA.

I would build a statue of Katz outside the dome if it got us two top-3 players in the world.

You get talent at the top of the draft. The difference between success and failure is hitting on those picks. It’s the difference between Doughty at #2 or Byfield. Gudbranson or Huberdeau at 3.

But there’s no not having top-2 picks on your team if you really want to matter in this league.

[Badgers Nose]

I think we will have to agree to disagree, but I respect your position.

[BagoPucks]

The problem to me has always been the blue line depth. When teams are winning goalies look and blue lines look great and it covers up a lot of potential mistakes. I dont know how you add to it without subtracting from somewhere else in your organisation. If there was one place I would subtract from it would most likely be a prospect down in the AHL.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Edmonton has two top-3 players on the planet, only one of whom was a 1OA.

I would build a statue of Katz outside the dome if it got us two top-3 players in the world.

You get talent at the top of the draft. The difference between success and failure is hitting on those picks. It’s the difference between Doughty at #2 or Byfield. Gudbranson or Huberdeau at 3.

But there’s no not having top-2 picks on your team if you really want to matter in this league.

It's been explained many times, but nearly all teams in the league have picked top 3 in the last 30 years. Pretty sure it's only CGY and DET (and VGK)

MIN and NAS only did it in their first year, but they've both had plenty of top 10 picks, including 4OAs. DAL got Heiskanen 3OA, but have otherwise had very few top 10 picks. You gotta go back to 96-98 where SJ picked 2/2/3, but they got like 20 years out of Marleau (and of course they won a 3OA pick that became Stutzle)

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

It's been explained many times, but nearly all teams in the league have picked top 3 in the last 30 years. Pretty sure it's only CGY and DET (and VGK)

MIN and NAS only did it in their first year, but they've both had plenty of top 10 picks, including 4OAs. DAL got Heiskanen 3OA, but have otherwise had very few top 10 picks. You gotta go back to 96-98 where SJ picked 2/2/3, but they got like 20 years out of Marleau (and of course they won a 3OA pick that became Stutzle)

In the cap era, four teams have won multiple cups - the Penguins (3) Blackhawks (3) Kings (2) and Lightning (2).

They all got at least one franchise player out of a top-2 pick.

Sid, Geno, Fleury, Stamkos, Hedman, Doughty, Kane.

Look what happens to that group of players when you swap them with the very next player drafted.

Pittsburgh is left with Bobby Ryan, Cam Barker and Eric Staal.

Tampa has Doughty and Matt Duchene.

Chicago selects JVR.

LA gets Zach Bogosian.

10 Stanley Cups becomes one at best, with the Duchene/Doughty Lightning being the only team that has a chance of maybe cashing one in.

Everyone else is DOA.

[BoLevi]

Yup. Your chance of tanking and winning the lottery is much better than your chance of winning the Cup without a 1or 2 overall pick.

Pick your poison.

[ComixZone]

I don’t really understand people opposed to tanking/rebuilding through the top of the draft.

This organization has been an absolute joke since 1989. One of the least successful organizations going on 30+ years.

We’ve never drafted top-3.

Are you just comfortable with perpetual mediocrity? So comfortable that you don’t want the team to try a different approach? I definitely understand not wanting to be a Buffalo/Edmonton/Arizona, but I also look at those teams as being horrifically managed (for various reasons) that hampered all of their “efforts”.

Yeah, tanking/rebuilding guarantees you absolutely nothing - but it gives you a chance at acquiring truly elite talent.

Yep, Tampa did great by drafting Vasilevskiy, Point, and Kucherov late in the draft - but without Stamkos and Hedman they don’t win anything.

You need top-end draft picks - after you get those picks, you have to be one of the best managed teams in the league to find success.

Without those top-end draft picks, even if you are one of the best managed teams in the league you still win nothing.

[GreenLantern2814]

One more.

It’s the difference between McDavid/Draisaitl and Jack Eichel/Sam Bennett.

Light takes a full minute to cross that gap.

[NewFan]

I agree that this team doesn't have not many corner stones to build a winning team. There are some good younger players but there isn't any player that carry this team. Or may be Wolf?
Finding an franchise player is so difficult and when you may have a chance you can try it.
This years draft is deep so if you had a couple first rounders and early 2nds you may can find some good players.
And in my opinion, and when I see the cup winning teams, they usually has players who grew together as a team, as group that will play for each other.
And I don't know many teams that built by free agents and won the cup.
So we have couple younger Forwards, a young goalie. So if we had a couple of higher draft picks we could find a first line C potential player or a top pairing D or so.
If not then next years draft.
Then we may have a a couple star type players with with supporting younger players that can play together many years.
I know nowadays young players paid too much after 3 years and difficult to keep them together, but this is the way if you try to compete longer for the cup.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I don’t really understand people opposed to tanking/rebuilding through the top of the draft.

This organization has been an absolute joke since 1989. One of the least successful organizations going on 30+ years.

We’ve never drafted top-3.

Are you just comfortable with perpetual mediocrity? So comfortable that you don’t want the team to try a different approach? I definitely understand not wanting to be a Buffalo/Edmonton/Arizona, but I also look at those teams as being horrifically managed (for various reasons) that hampered all of their “efforts”.

Yeah, tanking/rebuilding guarantees you absolutely nothing - but it gives you a chance at acquiring truly elite talent.

Yep, Tampa did great by drafting Vasilevskiy, Point, and Kucherov late in the draft - but without Stamkos and Hedman they don’t win anything.

You need top-end draft picks - after you get those picks, you have to be one of the best managed teams in the league to find success.

Without those top-end draft picks, even if you are one of the best managed teams in the league you still win nothing.

Tampa won one of their cups with Stamkos missing almost the entire playoffs. Hedmen is key but the other 3 guys were far more crucial.

When a market like Calgary goes into the tank the risk is being the next Buffalo or Edmonton and it is more than a decade of being terrible and when those teams tanked they were guaranteed the 1st or 2nd pick and the way the lotto works now we are seeing the worst team get the 3rd or 4th pick quite regularly.

Buffalo still is mediocre and Edmonton is in year 8 of a generational player and have only been an average team.

Markets like Calgary that go into tank mode seem to end up for like Buffalo or Columbus than they do Chicago or Tampa. Calagary had 2 of their best drafted players push their way out after 6 and 8 years because they didn’t want to stay in this market despite being a top team last year.

You are right it is a path to take but it is very risky with longer pain and no guarantees of success or top 3 picks.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

One more.

It’s the difference between McDavid/Draisaitl and Jack Eichel/Sam Bennett.

Light takes a full minute to cross that gap.

You post this like Draisaitl was a clear player to pick at 3. Most had Bennett ahead of him