Expansion Draft Scenario - Tanev vs Gio

[Calgary4LIfe]

I think this is a lot closer than what people make it out to be.



Tanev doesn't provide any offence. That's a big contract and 3 more seasons of it while just providing defence. With that said, his defence is elite. I just don't think that is enough to compensate for his lack of production.


Giordano is also viewed as a strong leader. Say what you will about the culture, but Giordano plays hard every night. I don't think his step down has been that big as people are making it out to be either, but he is certainly regressing and will continue to do so. However, that's only one more season's worth to worry about - he is unquestionably still the Flames best 2-way defencemen. That's the real issue here. I like Tanev, and I really do appreciate his defence, but he is a one-way defencemen with 3 more years.


Keep Giordano, let him retire a Flame while producing in his last year on his contract (or even flip him and gain assets at the deadline and allow him to chase a cup). I think the Flames really need to rebuild their backend.


I would rather have both contracts off the books by the end of next season, and I feel Giordano does more to help this team win.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Major Major

I am in full favor of using a 2022 3rd (no more) for Seattle to keep our top 4 in tact.

As has been outlined, if you get your third back from Gio at the deadline, you break even. An expiring Gio would get you a 1st round pick if the Columbus returns hold true, which they will. He's twice the dman Savard is right now.

Plus, you all know the flames aren't going full rebuild on purpose, right?

Scenario 1: Re-tool success, flames make playoffs with captain Gio in 2022. We win

Scenario 2: Re-tool fail. Gio holds value as a vet intangibled 40 point #4/5 dman who would lay in front of a train to help his team win. 2022 third becomes a 2022 first. We win

Scenario 3: Re-tool fail. Gio takes a step back in production. Remains a depth guy who will do anything to win. 2022 third becomes a 2022 third. Break even...

Scenario 4: Re-tool fail. Gio is injured. We lose

Argue all you want about the likely hood of those 4 scenarios, but the possible wins are much bigger than the loss, which at the end of the day, is a third round pick with a 5% chance of becoming an NHLer 4 years from now.

What happens in scenario 1 if they get bounced in first round? I wouldn’t call that a win. I see some people saying trade Gio at next deadline. They aren’t rebuilding and if in playoff spot or near playoff spot they won’t be trading Gio if he is still on team. Let Seattle take him and enjoy the cap money in a flat cap world.

[CSharp]

Would love Gio to retire as a Flames captain. But leaving Tanev exposed and picked up for a 4th round pick is nuts. A right hand shot defensive D-man is not a dime-a-dozen type that comes out in thin air like most left shot players these days.

As for Lucic, it wouldn't be bad to have him if the Flames can't trade him or no one picks him up when he's unprotected. It really all depends on what Tre is doing going forward with the core group. If he's expecting the Flames to continue with the core for another year or so before he's fired, having a big guy like Looch still makes sense even if it does cost a bit. Flames can trade him and retain most of his salary as needed as well.

IMO, Flames should trade Hanifin for defensive depth and/or prospect or in a blockbuster package to bolster the front end. I think he's a blue chip asset that can be flipped in a good package for a really good return. Seems that Tre can pick up any left shot Dman left and right from drafting and from any normal trading or UFA.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I think this is a lot closer than what people make it out to be.



Tanev doesn't provide any offence. That's a big contract and 3 more seasons of it while just providing defence. With that said, his defence is elite. I just don't think that is enough to compensate for his lack of production.


Giordano is also viewed as a strong leader. Say what you will about the culture, but Giordano plays hard every night. I don't think his step down has been that big as people are making it out to be either, but he is certainly regressing and will continue to do so. However, that's only one more season's worth to worry about - he is unquestionably still the Flames best 2-way defencemen. That's the real issue here. I like Tanev, and I really do appreciate his defence, but he is a one-way defencemen with 3 more years.


Keep Giordano, let him retire a Flame while producing in his last year on his contract (or even flip him and gain assets at the deadline and allow him to chase a cup). I think the Flames really need to rebuild their backend.


I would rather have both contracts off the books by the end of next season, and I feel Giordano does more to help this team win.

They are definitely different types of players, but $4.5 for a shut down defenseman isn't bad value. $6.85 for decent, but not elite offence and really poor defense at times is poor value. I would say Hanifan and Rasmus are the 2 best 2-way guys going forward, with Valimaki with great potential.

If the Flames keep him, Gio can still handle top 4 minutes, but I do think the Flames would be better off reducing his powerplay and penalty killing time. Gio has been a great Flame, but he simply isn't what he used to be.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Only 2 more years than Gio, for a guy who’s 6 years younger, at $2.2M less. In 3 years $4.5 may not be nearly the percentage of cap as it is now, too. I don’t see Tanev’s contract as a huge risk. Backlund is older, makes more and has the same term. And look at the comparable aged D out there. There’s a lot of top 4 guys that age making more and for more term. And a lot of them aren’t near as good as Tanev.

With Tanev the term is still risky for an owner who pays the bills.

I present to you the cautionary tale that is Mark Methot. Similar in style as a really good stay at home D who didn't offer a lot of offence. Was making a bit more money too signed a 4 year deal for 4.9 per season and by June of 2017 had used up two of those. After a nice run with Ottawa and Phaneuf refusing to waive a No Move Clause for the expansion draft he was exposed, drafted by the VGK, and subsequently traded to Dallas for Dylan Ferguson and a 2nd round pick with 2 years left on his deal at 4.9 per year (Oddly enough that pick ended up back in Ottawa in the Mark Stone trade). Over those two years Dallas got 45 total games out of him before his career ended when he was still 33 years old. 36 games one year, and 9 the next. They paid maximum dollars, got very little out of the player and ultimately nothing in terms of returned assets. When the deal was made...most people thought it was a really good move for Dallas. He was pretty much regarded nearly the same as Tanev is now, maybe even moreso.

So Giordano if healthy when the ED happens has one year at 6.75 at a time when Escrow is likely to be about 20% and no risk after this coming season. So in terms of cash owed that would be 5.4. For argument sake let's say revenues rebound and Escrow over the next two years after that is down to 10%. Tanev is owed 5.5 in salary next year and 4.5 each of the next two years. So in this scenario total cash commitment would be 12.5 over the next three seasons. That is a fair bit of risk for a team to carry. The risk of a career ending injury and the financial impact that Tanev has is considerably higher.

So I think that will weigh huge with owners, and it's a big reason why I would happily shed the contract risk that Tanev brings. Especially since it doesn't look like this team will not be very competitive in the next three seasons.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

With Tanev the term is still risky for an owner who pays the bills.

I present to you the cautionary tale that is Mark Methot. Similar in style as a really good stay at home D who didn't offer a lot of offence. Was making a bit more money too signed a 4 year deal for 4.9 per season and by June of 2017 had used up two of those. After a nice run with Ottawa and Phaneuf refusing to waive a No Move Clause for the expansion draft he was exposed, drafted by the VGK, and subsequently traded to Dallas for Dylan Ferguson and a 2nd round pick with 2 years left on his deal at 4.9 per year (Oddly enough that pick ended up back in Ottawa in the Mark Stone trade). Over those two years Dallas got 45 total games out of him before his career ended when he was still 33 years old. 36 games one year, and 9 the next. They paid maximum dollars, got very little out of the player and ultimately nothing in terms of returned assets. When the deal was made...most people thought it was a really good move for Dallas. He was pretty much regarded nearly the same as Tanev is now, maybe even moreso.

So Giordano if healthy when the ED happens has one year at 6.75 at a time when Escrow is likely to be about 20% and no risk after this coming season. So in terms of cash owed that would be 5.4. For argument sake let's say revenues rebound and Escrow over the next two years after that is down to 10%. Tanev is owed 5.5 in salary next year and 4.5 each of the next two years. So in this scenario total cash commitment would be 12.5 over the next three seasons. That is a fair bit of risk for a team to carry. The risk of a career ending injury and the financial impact that Tanev has is considerably higher.

So I think that will weigh huge with owners, and it's a big reason why I would happily shed the contract risk that Tanev brings. Especially since it doesn't look like this team will not be very competitive in the next three seasons.

Tanev is better than Methot. And he plays a different game. But if Tanev got hurt like that, he’s LTIR and no burden. And if the team isn’t competitive - who cares about cap hit?

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Tanev is better than Methot. And he plays a different game. But if Tanev got hurt like that, he’s LTIR and no burden. And if the team isn’t competitive - who cares about cap hit?

Maybe the guy paying the salary?

[powderjunkie]

I think Tanev's best value comes from being an ideal partner for Valimaki.

Whoever's fault it is, Gio-Andersson hasn't worked. Hanifin-Andersson could be a pair for a decade, no time like the present to start.

Gio-Kylington 3rd pair...Gio still gets tons of special teams time.

We've got much better organizational depth at LHD, so losing one isn't the end of the world.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Maybe the guy paying the salary?

They are committed to the cap. And you are advocating keeping a higher salary guy.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Personally, I would leave Gio unprotected...his game is in decline and he carries a big, albeit expiring, contract.

I want Gio to retire as a Flame, but am not keen on the idea of paying Seattle to take someone else (since they might be bluffing anyways)

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

They are committed to the cap. And you are advocating keeping a higher salary guy.

I'm saying the guy with less total dollars owed who has a contract expiring next year. That contract is easier to move for a return than one with two more years of term.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I'm saying the guy with less total dollars owed who has a contract expiring next year. That contract is easier to move for a return than one with two more years of term.

It depends - I’m betting some teams would like Tanev’s contract for a couple years. Or keep him - you still need players, especially ones who can play with young guys (which Tanev has shown twice now he can do).

[dammage79]

This thread need a poll. Alternatively, I should probably start a poll thread with a poll about if this thread needs a poll.