Massive Explosions in Beirut.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

Where do you see 7 kt? That puts it in the tac nuke ball park.

Lebanese authorities state 2750 tons of ammonia nitrate. Let's assume that's true and let's assume this photo is legit:



It seems legit compared to the warehouse pic here:



The ammonia nitrate manufacturer is NITROPRILL HD, which is very likely a knock-off of Nitropril made by Orica.

Orica sets the TNT equivalence for fire at 20 percent.
0.20 x 2750 = 550 tons

20 percent is conservative for safety purposes so 550 tons is an upper limit not a guess.

So a 1/2 KT yield, that seems awfully small compared to the explosion, now I'm not saying that it was 7 kt's, I'm not sure.



I decided to use Nuke Map to take a look. The first one is a ground burst 500 T nuclear explosion


I noted the heavy and moderate damage circles were less then 1/10th of a KM's in total

Spoiler!

The second one below is a 7 KT ground detonation. which has a total combined heavy to moderate damage zone of about 1.5 KM's

Spoiler!

If that was accurate in terms of the explosive stored, then something else a lot bigger had to be in there.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Of course Nuke Map is a real thing.

[CaptainCrunch]

Fair but the accuracy issues of nukemap are based around actual casualties as this is just an estimate based on expected density. And the effects of the EMP. But from what I've read the blast damage information is fairly accurate.

[Acey]

Originally Posted by nik-

The Tianjin explosion, which was larger than this, was 8.5 times smaller than Halifax.

This is unfathomable. Surely because it was so long ago, I think people sort of forget the scale of Halifax.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

Where do you see 7 kt? That puts it in the tac nuke ball park.

Lebanese authorities state 2750 tons of ammonia nitrate. Let's assume that's true and let's assume this photo is legit:



It seems legit compared to the warehouse pic here:



The ammonia nitrate manufacturer is NITROPRILL HD, which is very likely a knock-off of Nitropril made by Orica.

Orica sets the TNT equivalence for fire at 20 percent.
0.20 x 2750 = 550 tons

20 percent is conservative for safety purposes so 550 tons is an upper limit not a guess.

BBC report from earlier today

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

So a 1/2 KT yield, that seems awfully small compared to the explosion, now I'm not saying that it was 7 kt's, I'm not sure.

I decided to use Nuke Map to take a look. The first one is a ground burst 500 T nuclear explosion

I noted the heavy and moderate damage circles were less then 1/10th of a KM's in total

The second one below is a 7 KT ground detonation. which has a total combined heavy to moderate damage zone of about 1.5 KM's

If that was accurate in terms of the explosive stored, then something else a lot bigger had to be in there.

550 tons is a large explosion.

The damage will depend on the over pressure (in psi). For example, 1 psi will blow out windows; 3 psi will destroy residential homes; and 5 psi will destroy all buildings. It seems to me that reinforced concrete and stone buildings did not collapse along the road Charles Helou, which is approximately 600m from the explosion epicentre. A multiple kiloton blast would have levelled some/all the buildings.

As an example, here is a building along Charles Helou:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1290710681323528194

It was geo-located at 33.895996° 35.517266° so that puts it 620m from the warehouse. There appears to be buckling in the building's structure, so let's call it 3 psi over pressure. The scaling constant for 3 psi is 1.0. Thus...

Range (km) = Yield(Y)^0.33*scaling constant (bl)
0.62=Y^0.33*1.0

Yield, Y = approx 0.240 kt TNT equivalent.

Now, obviously there are huge error bars.

[CaptainCrunch]

Fair enough, I won't back check your math


It just feels like 500 T while a large explosion is on the small side.

[blankall]

The Hiroshima explosion was 13-18 kt. That killed 70000 instantly. This is bad but nowhere near even half that. It sounds like the death toll is unlikely to climb anywhere near 1000, which is good news.

This discussion is pretty morbid.

Lots of places are already taking donations:

https://www.fastcompany.com/90536746...anon-right-now

https://en.vogue.me/culture/lebanon-...s-how-to-help/

Could be especially needed as Lebanon was already in a pretty drastic economics crisis.

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

550 kilotons is a large explosion.

The damage will depend on the over pressure (in psi). For example, 1 psi will blow out windows; 3 psi will destroy residential homes; and 5 psi will destroy all buildings. It seems to me that reinforced concrete and stone buildings did not collapse along the road Charles Helou, which is approximately 600m from the explosion epicentre. A multiple kiloton blast would have levelled some/all the buildings.

As an example, here is a building along Charles Helou:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1290710681323528194

It was geo-located at 33.895996° 35.517266° so that puts it 620m from the warehouse. There appears to be buckling in the building's structure, so let's call it 3 psi over pressure. The scaling constant for 3 psi is 1.0. Thus...

Range (km) = Yield(Y)^0.33*scaling constant (bl)
0.62=Y^0.33*1.0

Yield, Y = approx 0.240 kt TNT equivalent.

Now, obviously there are huge error bars.

His math pegs it at 0.55 kilotons, not 550.

[Baron von Kriterium]

That's a typo on my part. Should be 550 tons.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Beyond the destruction to the city, that port is hugely important, and its probably out of service for a while.

Yup. They import most things, so that port is incredibly crucial to Lebanon, and with their economy already in the ground, the people of Lebanon are going to suffer even more now. This is so horrible for the people of Lebanon.

[SebC]

I would assume that blast power dissipates as an inverse square, so a large increase in yield would produce a small increase in radius of effect. Thus making estimating yield from radius a very error-prone calculation.

[Snuffleupagus]

On CNN

"This is not just ammonium nitrate," former CIA operative says of explosion
Robert Baer, a former CIA operative with extensive experience in the Middle East, said videos of Tuesday's blast showed that while ammonium nitrate may have been present in the warehouse, he does not believe it was responsible for the massive explosion that ensued.

Initial reports blamed the blast on a major fire at a warehouse for firecrackers near the port, according to Lebanese state news agency NNA.

Lebanon's Prime Minister, Hassan Diab, later said that 2,750 metric tons of ammonium nitrate, a highly explosive material used in fertilizers and bombs, had been stored for six years at a port warehouse without safety measures, "endangering the safety of citizens," according to a statement.

Baer said he thinks that there were military munitions and propellants present. He speculated it could have been a weapons cache, but it's unclear who it belongs to.

[speede5]

Just what we need, 'experts' throwing speculation out there to get all the conspiracy nuts going.

[OMG!WTF!]

Originally Posted by speede5

Just what we need, 'experts' throwing speculation out there to get all the conspiracy nuts going.

Speaking of conspiracy nuts...


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ck/3292842001/

President Donald Trump said Tuesday that U.S. military officials advised him that a massive explosion in Beirut appeared to be an "attack," though he offered little detail to explain how his administration had come to that conclusion.

[krynski]

The math here is a reminder to me that everyone thinks differently (when I'm not reminded by the countless debates on the forums).

It's certainly interesting- thanks for sharing your thoughts!



This truly is a devastating incident. Hopefully humanity will adapt and learn from it's mistakes. I feel with as much innovation and creation of efficiencies the world has managed to create, we have also created the potential to create much damage to undo a lot of it.

[CaptainCrunch]

I honestly think that any sanctions need to be at least temporarily lifted so that there can be a humanitarian effort in terms of health care, getting their economy on their feet and the massive repair effort to fix that port.



Its the right thing to do.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I honestly think that any sanctions need to be at least temporarily lifted so that there can be a humanitarian effort in terms of health care, getting their economy on their feet and the massive repair effort to fix that port.



Its the right thing to do.

Are there any non-arms related sanctions against Lebanon? I know there are some against specific organizations. But any against Lebanon as a whole?

[CaptainCrunch]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1291027401942667266


Sanctions against Lebanon. The US sanctions are pretty sweeping. And there were additional sanctions coming into play that were halting things like trade and the shipment of food to Lebanon.



https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-0...FCg/index.html

[stazzy33]

Originally Posted by captaincrunch

[tweet]1291027401942667266[tweet]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1291027401942667266