Pronman: Flames with the 29th ranked farm system

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

a great addition.... doesn't change that Boston didn't have or make room for him. He did jump to the top of the Flames prospect list... jumping Mangiapane and Foo.

Says who? I haven't seen him tops of any of our prospect lists and that suggestion is ridiculous. Another narrative invented by you. BOS made room for him last year. He was a free agent because of the CBA, you don't know that they didn't want to keep him.

Mediocre troll job this time sir. Why do we put up with this guy's nonsense? It really hampers discussion instead of furthering it. He derails almost every thread he posts in.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

He derails almost every thread he posts in.

Almost?

[Boreal]

Pronman basically states at the top that he prioritizes high end prospects which essentially means he values Oiler tank and draft high prospects rather than developing low end 4th line replacement players of value that ensure bottom pairing players are not over paid.

I've never been impressed by his work. To me, outside of evaluating how a player performs against his peers, he has little insight or evaluation about how well their skillset translates to the NHL.

The hardest thing for a middling NHL prospect who excels in junior is finding a role in the NHL. Moving from a 1st/2nd line junior player to a 3rd/4th line NHL player is a mind warp. It's 99% mental. They all have the physical skill, but it's being able to retrain their mental abilities to perform a different role for a team.

He provides next to no insight on this. Shane Malloy's book, The Art of Scouting Details some of this, but its the tip of the iceberg on being able to evaluate how to evaluate players on transition skillsets between professional and amateur hockey. Hockey as an industry in still way behind in the training, developing, and fostering the mental aspect of the game compared to other sports.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

That’s just silly.

If he works out then great. But an undersized forward that hasn’t made it as of yet doesn’t leap frog similar players that are younger not players that project higher up the roster.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If they are paying him 1.25M for 2 years to replace Magnipane/Foo in Stockton then they made a big mistake.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Probably explains why he doesn't have Valimaki rated higher. Still, I don't know that I see much value in a system that fails to recognize the value of a 2nd pairing d-man who plays in the NHL for 10+ years, which is not a far-fetched projection for Valimaki. I'm confident that if a GM comes sniffing around and asking about Valimaki, and Treliving counters with Kylington, that cools the GM's interest.

Based on Pronman's tier description, he's evaluated Valimaki as a guy who won't reach the 2nd pairing, never mind for 10+ years.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

If they are paying him 1.25M for 2 years to replace Magnipane/Foo in Stockton then they made a big mistake.

Is that why you think he shot to the top of the prospect list?

LOLOL

Your logical “leaps” are ridiculous.

[Gallick]

I don't disagree with Pronman's overall analysis and our 29th overall ranking, but he makes some strange points in this article.

Monahan not a "star"? I guess it depends on how you define "star", but a 6th overall pick who has never scored less than 22 at the NHL level and skates on the first line... what else do you want? I guess Gaudreau is our only star.

Somewhat eye-opening to see neither of Gillies or Parsons considered legitimate NHL prospects.

[jlh2640]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

https://theathletic.com/459786/2018/...stem-rankings/




He is releasing the rankings with a couple per day. He has the Lightning and Capitals as the two teams with the worse farm system.

Jets are 28. At time of original posting no other teams rankings have been released.


He also breaks down the prospects into categories:



He doesn't categorize the Flames having anything above "Legit NHL prospect" with the following:

1. Kylington
2. Valimaki
3. Mangiapane
4. Andersson
5. Dube
6. Phillips
7. Ruzicka

He has 4 more prospects as "Have a chance" and 8 more prospects as "Depth".

Some of the major differences from the CP rankings:
Joly tops the "I have a chance" at #8.
Parsons at #14 in the "Depth" category
Klimchuk at #19


Direct link to the Flames article:
https://theathletic.com/433940/2018/...algary-flames/

Gillies dont count ?

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

If they are paying him 1.25M for 2 years to replace Magnipane/Foo in Stockton then they made a big mistake.

I am far from convinced Czarnik will be successful (basically have no idea) but he was a UFA so that gave him some leverage. Seems a few teams thought there was some possibility of upside still there.

Maybe he is Drew Shore part deux but these are the kind of chances I like to see the team take. If it doesn't work out, it's not the salary that concerns me.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

If they are paying him 1.25M for 2 years to replace Magnipane/Foo in Stockton then they made a big mistake.

Nobody said that either.

They feel they are buying low on a player about to move up the roster. At his age that makes sense. If they're wrong the term and dollar amount isn't a disaster, and his age fits a lot of the core group better than Mangiapane and Dube for example.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

a great addition.... doesn't change that Boston didn't have or make room for him. He did jump to the top of the Flames prospect list... jumping Mangiapane and Foo.

Shiny new toys normally do. I wouldn’t read too much into it, but you will and make a mountain out of a molehill.

[Lanny_McDonald]

I wouldn’t get too worked up over this list. Pronman is a bit of strange duck, digging in on players that have zero chance to be players for very obvious reasons, but discounting ones who are very likely to make it, but in lesser roles. He loves his swing for the fences picks and goes for guys that are all flash, but little substance. I’ve never taken him too seriously, and this year’s list just adds more fuel to that fire.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by New Era

Shiny new toys normally do. I wouldn’t read too much into it, but you will and make a mountain out of a molehill.

I still don't know what is the ‘it’ is that he's reading into. Where is this prospect list that has Czarnik on top of it? I don't think I've seen a prospect list that contains Czarnik at all.

Can someone throw me a bone?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

I still don't know what is the ‘it’ is that he's reading into. Where is this prospect list that has Czarnik on top of it? I don't think I've seen a prospect list that contains Czarnik at all.

Can someone throw me a bone?

It's very hard to understand Ricardo's logic (or lack thereof) but from his strange posts in this thread I am guessing that his thinking is going something like this

1. CGY signs Czarnik to a 1.25 million dollar contract.
2. He makes more than Foo/Mangiapane
3. Therefore MGMT thinks he's a better prospect than they are
4. Therefore he's shot to the top of our prospect list

That's about the most "sense" I can make out of Ricardo's illogical leaps. Not only is it hard to understand what he's talking about half the time but you cannot have a normal conversation with him. Either he selectively reads, doesn't understand what you're saying or is intentionally trolling everyone. If you reply to his post he doesn't really seem to comprehend what you said and reply back. I've tried to debate with him in the past to no success and am now stuck watching others try it as I think he's put me on ignore after all these years of me trashing his posts lol.

Classic Ricardo is him reading way too much into player salaries without taking into context age, history, free agent status, etc. He likes to compare players that aren't really comparable and then make bold statements and conclusions about their roles and values that just don't logically hold.

He really just lives in his own world where plus/minus is a valuable stat and players should be compared by salary regardless of their age, contract status and career history.

[FanIn80]

I would like to see how he ranked Gaudreau, Monahan and Tkachuk, when they were each prospects, just to get some perspective.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

I would like to see how he ranked Gaudreau, Monahan and Tkachuk, when they were each prospects, just to get some perspective.

From 2012. http://hockeyprospectus.com/puck/art...articleid=1364

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

I still don't know what is the ‘it’ is that he's reading into. Where is this prospect list that has Czarnik on top of it? I don't think I've seen a prospect list that contains Czarnik at all.

Can someone throw me a bone?

We didn't include him in our prospect polling list!

Wait! Maybe we should have included James Neal!

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Fair ranking at worst. Might even be a bit too nice to the Flames.

Every team fanbase gets a hardon for their prospects but the Flames really have an empty cupboard compared to the average team when looking strictly at prospects who have yet to make the team.

With that said, Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk, Hanifin, Lindholm, has to be one of the best under 25 core players in the league.

Have you considered where the cupboards were at four or five years ago? I have a hard time agreeing that there are 27 other teams with better pipelines than the Flames despite not having a bevy of elite talent coming out of the system right now.

The Flames, at worst, have a couple useful NHL players that can play each and every season coming out of the minor league system every year now and that's a win. I would also argue that Andersson, Valimaki, Parsons and Dube are much better than simply depth players as far as potential goes.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Have you considered where the cupboards were at four or five years ago? I have a hard time agreeing that there are 27 other teams with better pipelines than the Flames despite not having a bevy of elite talent coming out of the system right now.

The Flames, at worst, have a couple useful NHL players that can play each and every season coming out of the minor league system every year now and that's a win. I would also argue that Andersson, Valimaki, Parsons and Dube are much better than simply depth players as far as potential goes.

Hard to guess at his weighting system but if he had Valimaki as a second pairing defenseman instead of lower roster I'm guessing the ranking bumps up a good 5-10 spots.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by Gallick

I don't disagree with Pronman's overall analysis and our 29th overall ranking, but he makes some strange points in this article.

Monahan not a "star"? I guess it depends on how you define "star", but a 6th overall pick who has never scored less than 22 at the NHL level and skates on the first line... what else do you want? I guess Gaudreau is our only star.

Somewhat eye-opening to see neither of Gillies or Parsons considered legitimate NHL prospects.

Yeah, he lays out his methodology and that makes his ranking defensible; his approach is valid but just one way of looking at things. He basically puts the goalie disclaimer up front - he just assumes late bloomers for most goalies.

It's food for thought, good opinion piece during the quiet days of summer.

Flames top prospects have mostly graduated. If they execute the season to their potential then it might be a while before we have any of the sort of elite prospects he covets in this piece. But with a great core secured, the influx of supporting players will be disproportionally important over the next five years IMO (think interchangeable/sell high support players Hawks, Penguins style).

If you think that way (does a team have an elite core, and is there a steady stream of hungry support players challenging for spots) then you might rank the teams differently. That's how I would do this as the goal is to win silverware, not horde prospects.