[Signing] Sens sign Stone to 1 year deal ($7.35 mil)

[Yoho]

How they didn’t give Colarado this years pick is amazing.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Yoho

How they didn’t give Colarado this years pick is amazing.

That would have required them to give Colorado last year's pick. Fourth overall – that is, the very earliest pick that a team can possibly have, except by winning the lottery.

Buffalo finished dead last, and still had a 50.6% chance of losing all three lottery drawings and picking fourth. The Senators don't have 31st place locked up by any means, which means the odds are that they will finish fourth or lower.

Would you trade Brady Tkachuk for next year's 4th overall? 5th? 6th? 10th?

[Enoch Root]

10th is an extreme longshot.

While the odds of winning the lottery and picking 1st are low, the odds of Ottawa picking top 4 this year are very high.

Their choice was keep the 4th this year and give up next year, or give up the 4th this year.

Considering where things were with Karlsson and Hoffman, and the lack of progress on a contract with Stone, plus the fact that Buffalo and Arizona are probably improved this year,IMO it was an easy call to give up the 4th and keep the lottery pick.

If Ottawa finishes 31st, the pick has a 100% chance of being top 4.
If they finish 30th, it has a 82.1% chance of being top 4.
If they finish 29th, it has a 47.1% chance of being top 4.

How many people think Ottawa has any kind of realistic chance of finishing higher than bottom 3?

[Jiri Hrdina]

I don't see how you can say it was an easy call.
We've seen that finishing in the bottom 3 is actually quite hard (unless you are the Oilers). The Flames have never done it? On paper the Sens look terrible but you never know how a team will come together
Giving them the 4th would have basically sent a message to the team and fans that "boy you thought this year was bad, wait until you see how bad we are next year!".

I can see the arguments for both sides, but to say the decision was an easy call just isn't true.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

10th is an extreme longshot.

While the odds of winning the lottery and picking 1st are low, the odds of Ottawa picking top 4 this year are very high.

Their choice was keep the 4th this year and give up next year, or give up the 4th this year.

Considering where things were with Karlsson and Hoffman, and the lack of progress on a contract with Stone, plus the fact that Buffalo and Arizona are probably improved this year,IMO it was an easy call to give up the 4th and keep the lottery pick.

If Ottawa finishes 31st, the pick has a 100% chance of being top 4.
If they finish 30th, it has a 82.1% chance of being top 4.
If they finish 29th, it has a 47.1% chance of being top 4.

How many people think Ottawa has any kind of realistic chance of finishing higher than bottom 3?

I do. There are several other teams in the running for worst overall, and they can't all finish in the bottom 3.

Last season, there were two teams below 70 points, and then Detroit, Vancouver, Montreal, and Arizona tightly grouped from 70 to 73. The difference between third-worst and sixth-worst was statistically insignificant. I think Carolina might sink down into that group with the new owner chucking dynamite everywhere, and I'm not the least bit sold on the Oilers, either. That's potentially eight teams in the running to be seriously bad.

You must also remember that the Senators had to make their choice before the draft. At that time, they still had Hoffman on the roster, and good reason to suppose that by keeping the 4th overall pick, they would acquire a player who could step in immediately. It was some time after the draft before Brady Tkachuk announced that he was returning to college.

You are also failing to account for the value of having a high pick this year instead of next. At present, it comes down to this: Which is more valuable in 2019-20, a 19-year-old Brady Tkachuk who has had an extra year of seasoning in college hockey and is ready to step in, or an 18-year-old who-knows-who chosen with a pick that is unlikely to be significantly better and could be significantly worse?

I don't think the Senators necessarily made the right decision, but there certainly were arguments on both sides.

[neo45]

I think it’s a terrible call to give up on a season before it starts.

We’ve seen in Edmonton and Buffalo how hard it is to turn around a losing culture. Even picking first overall doesn’t fix it.

Plus Brady is an awesome prospect, and by most opinions the 2019 class isn’t as good as 2018. Also gets the prospect into your system a full year earlier. I don’t think many GM’s would have given up the pick.

[Enoch Root]

Look at it from the weighted average value of picks perspective. Here are the values from one system - I believe the one followed by the NFL (the NHL is generally considered to be more parabolic, and therefore the top picks are worth even more, relative to the lower picks).

1: 3000
2: 2600
3: 2200
4: 1800
5: 1700
6: 1600
7: 1500
8: 1400
9: 1350
10: 1300

Avg: 1845

In other words, the 4th pick is essentially equal to the average of the top 10 picks. Think of it this way: the difference in value, between #2 and #3 is greater than the difference between #6 and #7.

The difference between #3 and #4 on this depiction is equal to the difference between #4 and #8. And again, it is generally agree that this chart understates the value of top picks for hockey.

If their pick next year does turn out to be a top 3 pick - and especially a top 2 pick - they will have made a very bad choice. If, on the other hand, it turns out to be a #4 through #6 pick, they will have won marginally.

And it is far too early to say next year's draft is weaker. People say that almost every year, early in the year. But by draft time, things can change substantially.

I can say it's a pretty easy decision, and I'll say it again. Easy decision.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Look at it from the weighted average value of picks perspective. Here are the values from one system - I believe the one followed by the NFL (the NHL is generally considered to be more parabolic, and therefore the top picks are worth even more, relative to the lower picks).

In other words, since you have no evidence to support your view, you're going to use numbers from an irrelevant source and pretend that they apply.

Nice try.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If their pick next year does turn out to be a top 3 pick - and especially a top 2 pick - they will have made a very bad choice. If, on the other hand, it turns out to be a #4 through #6 pick, they will have won marginally.

If their pick next year turns out to be a top 3 pick, it will be because they won the lottery, not because of their on-ice performance. Basically, you are saying they should have traded Brady Tkachuk for a lottery ticket, and assuming that their team will be bad enough this season to make them win that lottery.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

In other words, since you have no evidence to support your view, you're going to use numbers from an irrelevant source and pretend that they apply.

Nice try.



If their pick next year turns out to be a top 3 pick, it will be because they won the lottery, not because of their on-ice performance. Basically, you are saying they should have traded Brady Tkachuk for a lottery ticket, and assuming that their team will be bad enough this season to make them win that lottery.

An irrelevant source? The generally accepted view is that those numbers understate the value of the top picks in the NHL, and that the NHL curve is even more parabolic. That doesn't make them irrelevant. Sometimes you just don't know when to stop.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

An irrelevant source? The generally accepted view is that those numbers understate the value of the top picks in the NHL, and that the NHL curve is even more parabolic. That doesn't make them irrelevant. Sometimes you just don't know when to stop.

The numbers are not from the NHL, and as such they are irrelevant to the NHL. You are guessing that they apply, despite not having access to any comparable numbers for the NHL to see if they actually do apply. If you had numbers for the NHL, you would use those instead. You don't, so you cite unspecified sources that say the NHL numbers are ‘even more parabolic’, despite not having any information about what those actual numbers might be. So you are not only guessing, but handwaving your guesswork. When called on the BS, you double down.

It is an elementary law of statistics that you cannot use numbers from one population to make generalizations about a different population. In jobs where the application of statistics actually matters, such as industrial process-control engineering, such abuse of statistics is a firing offence.

Sometimes you just don't know when you never should have started.

[yow8309]

Originally Posted by neo45

Plus Brady is an awesome prospect, and by most opinions the 2019 class isn’t as good as 2018. Also gets the prospect into your system a full year earlier. I don’t think many GM’s would have given up the pick.

I totally agree what you are saying, but would also like to remind everyone that Brady can becomes a free agent in 4 years... if he doesn't turn pro/OHL... I am a Flames fan living in Ottawa and also cheers for the Sens. Brady not signing and wait out the 4 years is a very real possibility nobody is willing to discuss.

[Geeoff]

I think keeping the 4th and drafting Brady Tkachuk was definitely a safer decision.


There's lots of competition for last place. There are the usual suspects plus the Rangers and Red Wings tanking hard.


Even if the Sens finish last, they are most likely to get the 4th overall pick.

By drafting this year, they gained a year of development and don't have to worry about the uncertainty surrounding next year's pick. In addition, I think the Sens believe that they are not a last place club.

[Geeoff]

Another factor, if the Sens give up their 4th, they are under pressure to get rid of Erik Karlsson ASAP because he's a player that will win you games. Now they can take their time and assess their options.

[Oling_Roachinen]

When the last place teams have recently finished with between 20-25 games, it doesn't take much of an anomaly to "exceed" expectations and finish outside of a 'lottery position.' A hot goalie for a month period is all it takes to stop you from finishing deadlast even with the bonafide worst place roster. The issue for the Senators is there are a lot of contenders for bad teams this year. Can't fault them for keeping a guaranteed top 5 pick over a literal lottery chance.

The Canucks had 30 wins last year with the Sedins. Looks like Boeser will have to carry that team on his back just to finish on par with last year - and that could be problematic given his back injury . No one would be surprised to see the Canucks finish last place. Things could go right, with Petersson and friends, and they might exceed expectations sure.

Canadiens had under 30 wins. They lost a 20 goal scorer in Galchenyuk, might trade their best skater in Pacioretty. Another regular performance from Price and they're at the bottom of the league. Of course we've seen Price carry that team far further than it should have gone before.

Detroit had 2 more wins than the Senators last year. If Zetterberg doesn't come back that's the last of the old guard and a sign of the changing times. Larkin and Mantha are some solid young players that could be supplemented by the vets and other young players but no one is expecting them to make much noise this season.

And then you have the New York teams. The Rangers are going scorched earth on their team in a very publicized rebuilding period. The Tavaresless Islanders could easily flounder without him.

Of course you always have the surprise teams, both good and bad, that no one sees finishing where they do when the season starts.

Finally, you have the standard Buffalo, Arizona, Edmonton teams that always seem to defy expectations and somehow always #### up their rebuild.

Missing out on Hughes would be, ah, huge. But it's so far from a guarantee. You would need to be a gambling man to give up on the fourth overall because the math doesn't back up that move. This isn't like when the Devils held onto their 29th pick.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

a bunch more stuff trying to prove your opinion is right and the other person's is wrong

The stats show a relationship for picks in one sport. I used it as an example to illustrate that there is also one in hockey (I wasn't guessing anything). It is a valid representation for illustrating that there is a more significant difference between top picks than between the picks after #4. You can choose to agree or disagree, but trying to argue that using an example is not a valid use of statistics is pretty funny.

For some reason, you feel the need to 'win' arguments. I gave reasons why I think they should have kept their pick. You have given reasons why you think differently. Great. That is where it should have ended - they're opinions. But no, you have to try and prove the other person wrong every time.

I'm out - do your thing.

[Geeoff]

I don't think anyone disagrees that picks 1-3 are better than pick 4. It was just the safe move to keep a good asset instead of an uncertain one.

Also, if the Sens finish last, Dorion's probably out the door before the draft. So there's another reason he would make the pick.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Would you trade Brady Tkachuk for next year's 4th overall? 5th? 6th? 10th?

Yes, yes, yes, no, but I think they'll pick higher than 10. Then again I'm not that high on Brady Tkachuk.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Yes, yes, yes, no, but I think they'll pick higher than 10. Then again I'm not that high on Brady Tkachuk.

The Sens keeping the pick was the right decision.

How a team that needs scoring help passes on a prospect like Zadina, for a guy who scored all of 8 goals last year is a real head scratcher.

You are welcome, Detroit.

[FlamesFanTrev]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

I don't think anyone disagrees that picks 1-3 are better than pick 4. It was just the safe move to keep a good asset instead of an uncertain one.

Also, if the Sens finish last, Dorion's probably out the door before the draft. So there's another reason he would make the pick.

If Dorian had surrendered the 4th in hopes of improving his draft selection next year, he would be essentially raising the white "tank" flag. That would ultimately put him in a position of weakness when it comes time to trade all his upcoming UFA rental players, of which he has 3 notable guys in Karlsson, Duchene and Stone. Might as well have just got out a flap of cardboard and written "firesale" in sharpy marker and hung it around his neck with a shoe lace.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by yow8309

I totally agree what you are saying, but would also like to remind everyone that Brady can becomes a free agent in 4 years... if he doesn't turn pro/OHL... I am a Flames fan living in Ottawa and also cheers for the Sens. Brady not signing and wait out the 4 years is a very real possibility nobody is willing to discuss.

I’d say it’s far from a very real possibility. If Brady is ready to make the jump next year he’d be sacrificing 3 years of million dollar+ salary that he will never recoup. He misses 3 years of playing pro hockey and making premier money. Is it a very real possibility that he decides to forego multiple years of his pro career just to leave OTT? IMO no, that’s very unrealistic.