[News] Eric Francis piece: "The Case for why the Flames will make the playoffs"

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

If the Flames are going to make the playoffs w/o Gaudreau then why did they spend so much money on him?

Are they a playoff team without him?

When Wideman came back from his hand injury in 2013-14 he was totally useless.

Self parody?

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by BigTuna

I agree with what Francis is saying.

Has to be a leafs joke?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I will definitely agree that a team usually has a better home record than away record, but that isn't always the case. Didn't the Flames flip-flop somewhat over the last 10 years between being 'awesome' on the road, and 'lousy' at home for a season, then following it up with the complete inverse?

With a team that has high expectations and come out of the gate too slow, I think it becomes more difficult playing at home. Sometimes the best tonic is a long road trip, so hopefully that does the trick. Hopefully it isn't another year of weird home vs away stats.

I wouldn't put money on the Flames making the playoffs this year, but even though they are so far down in point percentage, the Pacific has come out of the gate terribly as a whole, with Edmonton being a bit of the surprise exception who are falling back down as anticipated.

This is a rare year where the Flames can crawl out of the gate and still make the post-season, but they are still behind the 8-ball.

IMO the Flames bad home record is just an accident of them having more home games at the start of the season when they were just not playing very well. And the road wins happened when they started to figure out their game. I'm betting it self corrects now that they seem to have stabilized their play. For example, tonight.

[Robbob]

Didn't want to add to the snake thread since it has nothing to do with 96 points, did some projections based on the current teams point per game so far this season. Completely understand it is all a moving target but gives a snap shot based on what the teams have done to date:

Minny is on pace for 103 points so they should take the last Central spot (CHI and STL taking the other spots).

That leaves the 3 Pacific and 2 wild card spots for the remaining teams. Based on the ppg:
........GP....PTS....PPG...Pro Points
ANA..29.....35.....1.21.......99
SJ.....28.....33.....1.18.......97
EDM..31.....35.....1.13.......93
LA.....27.....30.....1.11.......91
CGY...31.....34.....1.10.......90
NSH...27.....28.....1.04......85
DAL...30......28.....0.93......77
WPG..32......29.....0.91......74

Calgary currently is sitting in the last WC spot. I think the Jets are on the list as a courtesy, although after losing to the Oilers in the manner they did probably should be taken off.

[AC]

Shows you how quickly things change. Nashville was 1 pt back with 5 games in hand just a few games ago.

Now they're 6 pts back with 4 games in hand.

[Robbob]

I'm a fan of the 7 game segments and it is interesting seeing the progress:
Seg 1 - 2-4-1 (-3)
Seg 2 - 3-4-0 (-2)
Seg 3 - 3-4-0 (-2)
Seg 4 - 5-1-1 (+3)
Seg 5 - 3-0-0 )still 4 games to play
Seg 6-11 still to be played
12th segment is the remaining 5 games to complete schedule.

[GoFlamesGo89]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Didn't want to add to the snake thread since it has nothing to do with 96 points, did some projections based on the current teams point per game so far this season. Completely understand it is all a moving target but gives a snap shot based on what the teams have done to date:

...

Calgary currently is sitting in the last WC spot. I think the Jets are on the list as a courtesy, although after losing to the Oilers in the manner they did probably should be taken off.

This is probably the most reasonable way of looking at our chances. I do think Edmonton's start still artificially inflates their position-- I wouldn't be surprised to see them fall further down. Likewise, Calgary will be higher if their strong play of late continues.

[squiggs96]

Let's see what has turned around.

However, surely the puck luck this franchise rode to the playoffs two years ago can return to some degree once Johnny Gaudreau returns from injury (around Christmas) and Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie and Brian Elliott somehow find their game.

Gaudreau returned after only three weeks, and has multiple points in all four games he's played since his injury. Monahan has points in all six of the team's current six game win streak, as well as the shoot out winner versus Minnesota. Giordano has now scored his first two goals, one on the power play, and one on the penalty kill. Elliott has looked the best he's looked all year, by sitting on the bench and opening the door during line changes. Johnson has been spectacular during the last 6 wins since the article was written. Brodie is still trying to find his game.

Brodie sits minus-14, dead last in the NHL.


In fact, Brodie, Gaudreau (minus-10), and Monahan (minus-9) are all bottom 10 in the NHL in that category.


It can’t continue. It won’t.

Well, unfortunately Brodie is still dead last in the NHL at minus 17. Maybe he's still not comfortable on the left side. Maybe he is trying too much. Whatever the reason, I'm not surprised by this stat. He's been the key culprit on a number of goals this year, and isn't putting the puck in the net on offence.

The good news is Gaudreau and Monahan are not in the bottom 10 anymore. Monahan has improved to minus 7 (67th worst) and Gaudreau is up to minus 5 (121st worst).

What has complicated their “misfortune” is the team’s horrific special teams play, which can’t get much worse than being the league’s 30th ranked power play unit and the 29th best penalty killers.

Both the PP and PK have been excellent recently. In the six games since the article the PP is 7 for 20, and has scored a goal in the last five straight games. The PK is 16 for 18 in the same stretch. I've seen stats that state both of these numbers are near the top of the league. I can't seem to pull them right now.

However, the mood in town is down due to more than just the sagging local economy and price of oil. The team has the league’s worst home record at 3-7-0, leaving the once-jammed Saddledome with thousands of empty seats every game.

The Flames have won four straight at home. They are looking to make it five straight on Wednesday against Tampa.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GoFlamesGo89

This is probably the most reasonable way of looking at our chances. I do think Edmonton's start still artificially inflates their position-- I wouldn't be surprised to see them fall further down. Likewise, Calgary will be higher if their strong play of late continues.

You are being charitable. Let's be honest: it will be shocking to see the Oilers in the playoffs.

[vicarious]

LA starts a brutal 9 game road trip against Buffalo tomorrow.

[flamesrule_kipper34]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Elliott has looked the best he's looked all year, by sitting on the bench and opening the door during line changes.

Quoted for hilarity.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by vicarious

LA starts a brutal 9 game road trip against Buffalo tomorrow.

We also have 4 games left against the Kings this season. Wining or splitting those 4 games would be huge.

[TheIronMaiden]

The Flames schedule for the remainder of December doesn't look bad.

Lightning

Blue Jackets

Coyotes

Sharks

Canucks

Avalanche

Ducks

Coyotes

5 of the 8 are divisional games. Not that they aren't all important, but this stretch will strongly factor into how things shape up down the stretch.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

The Flames schedule for the remainder of December doesn't look bad.

Lightning

Blue Jackets

Coyotes

Sharks

Canucks

Avalanche

Ducks

Coyotes

5 of the 8 are divisional games. Not that they aren't all important, but this stretch will strongly factor into how things shape up down the stretch.

Also, the four games after that are Colorado Vancouver Vancouver Winnipeg.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

The Flames schedule for the remainder of December doesn't look bad.

Lightning

Blue Jackets

Coyotes

Sharks

Canucks

Avalanche

Ducks

Coyotes

5 of the 8 are divisional games. Not that they aren't all important, but this stretch will strongly factor into how things shape up down the stretch.

CBJ and SJ are arguably their most difficult games in the month, and the Flames have owned the Sharks for over two years now—7-3-1 since 2014-15 season.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

The Flames schedule for the remainder of December doesn't look bad.

Lightning

Blue Jackets

Coyotes

Sharks

Canucks

Avalanche

Ducks

Coyotes

5 of the 8 are divisional games. Not that they aren't all important, but this stretch will strongly factor into how things shape up down the stretch.

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Also, the four games after that are Colorado Vancouver Vancouver Winnipeg.

I think it's feasible that they can get themselves at least 8 games above .500 by the end of that stretch. I think if they do, then they can have afford to have the odd struggle down the stretch while having a 50%> shot at playoffs.

[dying4acup]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

The Flames schedule for the remainder of December doesn't look bad.

Lightning

Blue Jackets

Coyotes

Sharks

Canucks

Avalanche

Ducks

Coyotes

5 of the 8 are divisional games. Not that they aren't all important, but this stretch will strongly factor into how things shape up down the stretch.

Lightning, Jackets, sharks and ducks are not easy games. Hopefully 2 wins.

Avelanche, Canucks and Yotes x 2 is hopefully 3wins.

By no means is that an easy schedule, other than the days off and only 1 back to back.

Something tells me the Flames ain't going to see many Mcbackups for a while here either.

[FireGilbert]

Originally Posted by dying4acup

Lightning, Jackets, sharks and ducks are not easy games. Hopefully 2 wins.

Avelanche, Canucks and Yotes x 2 is hopefully 3wins.

By no means is that an easy schedule, other than the days off and only 1 back to back.

Something tells me the Flames ain't going to see many Mcbackups for a while here either.

The Lightning are the coldest team in the league going 2-7-1 in their last 10 while the Flames have owned the Ducks on home ice lately. I don't think it is a stretch to call these easier games.