Rube's 2016 NFL Gambling Odyssey

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Oakland as a moneyline play against KC looks like the easiest money ever.

I guarantee Oakland is a double digit winner.

Your guarantees are worthless.

[rubecube]

Ugly week. This is what I get for being on vacation all week and just basically going off instinct on Saturday.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Ugly week. This is what I get for being on vacation all week and just basically going off instinct on Saturday.

You might still get out of it at 4-5 or 3-5-1. I didnt like your Houston -3, Chicago -2.5, or Philly at -2.5. I also would have weny the other way on those, same with Falcons/Seahawks.

Pittsburgh, and Baltimore I thought were good picks, Ravens just couldnt cover after Jimmy Smith got injured.

[rubecube]

Early lines I like are MIN -2.5, LA +2.5, and KC -6.5.

[rubecube]

On the plus side, with the exception of Denver, my total wins bets are looking pretty good.

[rubecube]

Absolute bloodbath last week (2-6-1) leaves me at 24-31-2 for the year. Going to be really hard to have a profitable year on games this year but because I bet larger on the total wins, I may still come out of this profitable.

MIN -2.5
KC -6.5
LA +2.5
OAK ML
SD +6
IND +3
DEN -7.5
BUF -2.5
CLE +10

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by rubecube

MIN -2.5

Agree with this call. The Vikings are on the road, but that really hasn't impacted them yet this year in any other games and they are coming off a bye. The league is starting to adjust to the Eagles offence now that they have a bit of history on them.

Originally Posted by rubecube

KC -6.5.

You might be living a bit dangerously here. The Saints do struggle on the road, but the Chiefs pass rush is still a bit lacking, and Marcus Peters only covers a small bit of the field. I think the Saints will keep this closer than the spread.

Originally Posted by rubecube

LA +2.5

I would lean this way as well if I had to pick in this game. Similar to when Eli went up against Minnesota, this can be a defence that he struggles against.

Originally Posted by rubecube

OAK ML

I think the Raiders will bound back here too. They actually play better on the road than at home.

Originally Posted by rubecube

SD +6

I like San Diego with the points here. Chargers always seem to find a way to be in these games even if they can't win.

Originally Posted by rubecube

IND +3

I like this pick too. The Colts certainly have their flaws, but wins against Miami, and Cleveland don't completely sell me on the Titans yet.

Originally Posted by rubecube

DEN -7.5

I think this could be too many points here for Denver to cover. Although Denver has preyed on ineffective QB's with a lot of success this year.

Originally Posted by rubecube

BUF -2.5

I suspect the Dolphins will normalize to who they had been. They responded last week, but Pittsburgh has always shown to be a bit inconsistent, and they played over half the game with a disabled QB. Although this is the type of game the Bills tend to blow.

Originally Posted by rubecube

CLE +10

I would go the other way. Bengals are in a mode where they can't lose this game and need to respond after the second half against New England, and having list 2 straight. I think they'll be able to pull off a double digit win here.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Agree with this call. The Vikings are on the road, but that really hasn't impacted them yet this year in any other games and they are coming off a bye. The league is starting to adjust to the Eagles offence now that they have a bit of history on them.

It's not so much that teams have figured out the Eagles offense. They moved the ball pretty effectively against Detroit and Washington, but having a rookie 5th round pick start at RT against the Vikings pass rush has disaster written all over it. Add in that the defense has regressed big time since week 3 and this line is about 3.5 points too low, IMO

You might be living a bit dangerously here. The Saints do struggle on the road, but the Chiefs pass rush is still a bit lacking, and Marcus Peters only covers a small bit of the field. I think the Saints will keep this closer than the spread.

The Saints might have the worst defense in the league. I'm expecting Charles and Ware to light them up.

I like San Diego with the points here. Chargers always seem to find a way to be in these games even if they can't win.

Yeah, they haven't lost a game by more than 6 points this year and always seem to be in the game at the end. I still think they'll lose but I would expect it to be close.

I like this pick too. The Colts certainly have their flaws, but wins against Miami, and Cleveland don't completely sell me on the Titans yet.

This one was more of a value pick. I like that the Colts were getting the points but I really liked that they were getting the points at +105.

I think this could be too many points here for Denver to cover. Although Denver has preyed on ineffective QB's with a lot of success this year.

Houston is a mess. Osweiller is atrocious. I'm fading them hard.

I would go the other way. Bengals are in a mode where they can't lose this game and need to respond after the second half against New England, and having list 2 straight. I think they'll be able to pull off a double digit win here.

It's too many points, IMO. The Browns are bad but the Bengals aren't very good. Plus you have Hue Jackson going against his old team. Also, the only games they've been truly blown out in were week 1 against the Eagles and week 9 against New Engalnd. They lost by 11 against Washington but were tied 20-20 going into the 4th Q of that game.

[Frequitude]

Love this thread. I probably learn more about football listening to you guys debate than I do watching the games.

[rubecube]

Apparently I got drunk and added SEA +2.5, so ended up going 5-5 for the week.

EDIT: Early lines I like for this week are ARI +2.5 and PHI +4.5

[Sylvanfan]

I see Oakland is +1.5 at Tampa. That's one that I like.

Green Bay +2.5 at Atlanta is another one that I'd play.

Bias alert....I'll take Indy with 2.5 at home against KC. The Chiefs have always been terrible against Indy.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Green Bay +2.5 at Atlanta is another one that I'd play.

Doesn't Aaron Rodgers have some ridiculous stats in Domes?

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Doesn't Aaron Rodgers have some ridiculous stats in Domes?

He used to put up crazy good stats in Domes but it didn't always translate into wins. Can't find much in terms of a current update. Games like the 51-45 Wild Card loss to Green Bay, even last years playoff loss in Arizona would be examples of him having a great stats day, but his team losing.

In this particular case, I think the Falcons are coming down to Earth a bit. Green Bays defence has been pretty stout for the most part this year, and I think their offence will continue to produce.

[DropIt]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I see Oakland is +1.5 at Tampa. That's one that I like.

Green Bay +2.5 at Atlanta is another one that I'd play.

Bias alert....I'll take Indy with 2.5 at home against KC. The Chiefs have always been terrible against Indy.

Sounds like I'm taking the Chiefs this week

[rubecube]

29-36-2 for the year. Feels like I'm on a lot of road teams and dogs this week, which always worries me but I'm not feeling super uneasy about most of these picks so who knows.

ARI +2.5
PHI +4.5
DET +2.5
NE -6.5
WSH +2.5
NYJ -2.5
TB -pk
SD +4.5
MIN -4

[CofR]

I hit the over last night... if you ever want a real rush bet on a Jags-Titans Thursday night game.

[MacDaddy77]

1 game wrong this week so far in Pools . Stupid Colts

have vikings in tonights game but i'm sure there's perfect tickets out there

[DropIt]

had my first good week, going 6-2 with SD cover and GB outright my only losses. Last minute I jumped on my New Orleans hunch and paid off well.

Think I'll leave the MNF game alone as I dont like to bet on my own team, but I do like the under at 39.5.

[rubecube]

Not really seeing a bunch of attractive early lines. Only one I like so far is PHI +2.5. Eagles are 9-3 against the Giants this decade and 15-9 against Eli overall.

[DropIt]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Not really seeing a bunch of attractive early lines. Only one I like so far is PHI +2.5. Eagles are 9-3 against the Giants this decade and 15-9 against Eli overall.

Seeing ATL -3.5 to TB as well right now. TB defense just gave up 500+ yards to Carr, I think the Falcons can do some damage there as well