How would Monahan, Bennett, and Tkachuk rank in the same draft class?

[Imported_Aussie]

Voted Bennett, Tkachuk, Monahan.
Not for how I rank them now, but in looking back to their draft years. Monahan did not put up the gaudy numbers of the other two, and even with a good reason in that he played on a weak team, there is always the concern over whether that player would have as much upside.
In their draft years I had Bennett as #2 (to Ekblad), Tkachuk as #4 (Matthews and the 2 Finns) and Monahan #5 (Barkov, MacKinnon, Jones, Drouin).

Arguably since then, Monahan has done the most to improve from his draft stock, and has had the most NHL time to prove that. In a redraft, he is within that top 3 for sure. But going back to his draft year, I don't think he was as hyped as the other two were. He looks better now, which makes it hard to go back into how I thought at the time of the draft

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Voted Bennett, Monahan, Tkachuk but it was tough. Bennett was a player some had going number 1 in the draft but we had a top 4 pick in a draft where the first ledge was after 4. I thought we were getting Bennett, Drasaitl, or Reinhart (no way Ekblad slipped past the Oil). 2013 was a much deeper draft. As Flames fans we knew we were getting one of Monahan or Lindholm we just didn't get to pick. Similar to 2014 the Flames get the guy they wanted fall into their laps and he hasn't disappointed yet. 2016 we couldn't really talk about Tkachuk falling to 6 after the Mem Cup. It seemed more likely he would break that top 3 before falling down to 6. To me the Tkachuk pick was the most surprising as I didn't think it would happen without trading up with the Oilers or Canucks.

i just look at how fortunate the Flames have been drafting in the top 10 since trading Iginla. We had the perfect player fall in our laps when it came out time to pick. Basically drafting our top 2 centre's and our next power forward winger. Having drafted a superstar winger and top pairing Dman in the 4th round years earlier sure helped and fleecing the Bruins for their young stud D also accelerated things.

I look at the players picked one spot before and one spot after our top 10 picks.
Lindholm
Drasaitl
Juolevi
Or
Nurse
Dal Cole
Keller

Looking at those picks I couldn't help but think the flames would be a couple years behind on the rebuild if we had those trios over our own

so hard to tell..... The Flames already had Brodie, Gio and Gaudreau in the system when Monahan was picked.

Monahan had an easier path to #1 C than any either Lindholm (Eric and Jordan Staal were stronger and harder to take ice time away than Backlund and Stajan) or even Drasaitl (RNH/Roy).


While playing this imaginary what if scenarios : What if Bennett would have joined the Flames before Monahan?

Even with Bennett's injury in his 18 year old season he would have been far ahead of Monahan when Monahan joined the team. If Bennett had his 18-18- 36 rookie year I would doubt that Monahan would have had his 34 pt rookie season with 16 minutes of ice time.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

1) Bennett. There was a reason as a prospect he was considered a Toews-type talent and then some. Some thought he was the best player in his draft class. Now in 2013 he might have gone after Drouin/MacKinnon/Barkov/Jones, but he would never have gone after Elias Lindholm or been in discussion against Darnell Nurse. Probably goes 4th before Dubois or Juolevi, or even 3rd before Puljujarvi as Dubois did. I honestly still prefer him over Reinhart and Draisaitl too by a slim margin.

2) Monahan. Draft year stats were deflated playing on a weak team. Was considered a good candidate for a good, sure fire #2 centre if not a franchise centre. Probably goes after Ekblad/Reinhart/Draisaitl/Bennett, but before Dal Colle. Probably goes after Dubois, but before Juolevi.

3) Tkachuk. Winger, inflated stats playing with Marner and Juolevi and Matthews, but a strong complimentary piece. Might still have gone after Nurse and Ristolainen, but probably goes before Nichushkin. Probably goes after Ekblad/Reinhart/Draisaitl/Bennett, but before Dal Colle.

Draft order the past four drafts possibly goes something like:

McDavid
Eichel
Matthews
Laine
Ekblad
MacKinnon
Barkov
Puljujarvi
Jones
Drouin
Reinhart
Bennett
Dubois
Draisaitl
Strome
Marner
Monahan
Tkachuk
Ristolainen
Provorov
Keller
Sergachyev
Hanifin
Werenski
Juolevi
Lindholm
Dal Colle
W. Nylander
Ehlers
A. Nylander
Nichushkin
Nurse
Zacha

With guys like Larkin, Brown, Connor, Boeser, Sanheim, and Rantanen being some wild cards teams were high on before their drafts.

Hypothesizing that Eichel might be chosen ahead of Matthews (and Laine and Ekblad) has some conceptual merit.

BUT in the Draft just completed a few weeks ago where Juolevi got picked ahead of Tkachuk and Dubois got picked ahead of Puljujarvi then the guys that get paid a lot of money to make these picks would switch it around somewhat drastically is not valid.

In 2015 Carolina would recognize the error in talent judgment and pick Provorov?

Also based on what was known when Ehlers was an 18 year old somehow the NHL Scouts and GMs would recognize his superior talent this time around and he would be picked ahead of Virtanen.

You are also saying that Edmonton with all the information they had at the 2014 draft would look at the same data and pick Bennett over Drasitl?


The past draft orders are now a fact ... The NHL professionals have made their selections. To say that with the exact set of data, facts and analysis that they had at the time they made these picks is not a viable suggestion.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Voted Bennett, Tkachuk, Monahan.

Didn't feel right to take into account what's happened since they were drafted because Monahan has had the most opportunity while Tkachuk has had none.

If they were drafted in the same year, I think this is most likely how it would shake down.

Nobody expected Monahan to immediately produce at the NHL and his development curve has steadily progressed since then.

[JiriHrdina]

I'm confused - we are trying to do this based on what was known at their draft, or including performance since?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

You are also saying that Edmonton with all the information they had at the 2014 draft would look at the same data and pick Bennett over Drasitl?

The past draft orders are now a fact ... The NHL professionals have made their selections. To say that with the exact set of data, facts and analysis that they had at the time they made these picks is not a viable suggestion.

While I agree to a very significant extent, the counter argument is that Puljujarvi probably goes third this year simply if Columbus didn't win that lottery.

So while Draisaitl always gets picked ahead of Bennett if we turned back time and let the Oilers draft, combining the drafts makes the team selecting the draft pick change.

Does a team that doesn't require the size upfront take a chance on the smaller center, Bennett, over the already 200+ pound physically mature Draisaitl at the time of their drafts? GranteedEV is suggesting it's a possibility.

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I'm confused - we are trying to do this based on what was known at their draft, or including performance since?

At draft time was my understanding.

I went:

1. Bennett
2. Tkachuk
3. Monahan

Bennett doesn't really need an explanation in my mind, but between Monahan and Tkachuk, I don't think anyone expected Monahan to be such a strong offensive force. At his draft he seemed like a candidate for a strong 2-way centre, not an overly forceful guy, but part of a supporting cast.

Tkachuk has a reputation as a leader on the ice and off, a guy who goes into the corner, supremely dangerous below the hash marks, and feisty and tenacious.

So outside of Monahan being a centre vs Tkachuk being a winger, I'd have ranked Tkachuk higher based on compete level at the time.

Revisionist thinking would make you reconsider that, but at draft time.. That's how I'd look at it.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I'm confused - we are trying to do this based on what was known at their draft, or including performance since?

If it was we know now then Monahan would be the clear cut winner. Hard to imagine a better 20-21 year old. based on what we know now.... Monahan would at worst go #2 in the 2013 draft with Barkov the only arguable competition for the #1 spot.

[Robbob]

Putting Bennett first was a no brainer. Monahan and Tkachuk are really close, but I put Monahan ahead by a whisker on the virtue of him being a center.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

While I agree to a very significant extent, the counter argument is that Puljujarvi probably goes third this year simply if Columbus didn't win that lottery.

So while Draisaitl always gets picked ahead of Bennett if we turned back time and let the Oilers draft, combining the drafts makes the team selecting the draft pick change.

Does a team that doesn't require the size upfront take a chance on the smaller center, Bennett, over the already 200+ pound physically mature Draisaitl at the time of their drafts? GranteedEV is suggesting it's a possibility.

Again things we just don't know......

How did Columbus not trade down with Edmonton or Calgary to get a 2nd round pick and their man Dubois in the top 6? How certain were the Flames that the canucks were going take a d-man? Did they consider Juolevi an equivalent value to Tkachuk?

Was Edmonton going to pick Dubois at 3?

You would fully expect that Vancouver could have trade down to at least 6 and maybe 7 and still have gotten Juolevi.

I do not think that the consensus TSN , Central scouting lists (or CP lists) match up all that closely with the professional teams lists.


Based on the weak teams that Dubois raked up all his points in his late season burst into prominence in the Q I would have taken Tkachuk over him 10 times out of 10, That does not make Tkachuk a 3rd round pick.

The only time that you see what the NHL teams are actually thinking is when they make the actual draft picks.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Again things we just don't know......

How did Columbus not trade down with Edmonton or Calgary to get a 2nd round pick and their man Dubois in the top 6? How certain were the Flames that the canucks were going take a d-man? Did they consider Juolevi an equivalent value to Tkachuk?

Was Edmonton going to pick Dubois at 3?

You would fully expect that Vancouver could have trade down to at least 6 and maybe 7 and still have gotten Juolevi.

I do not think that the consensus TSN , Central scouting lists (or CP lists) match up all that closely with the professional teams lists.


Based on the weak teams that Dubois raked up all his points in his late season burst into prominence in the Q I would have taken Tkachuk over him 10 times out of 10, That does not make Tkachuk a 3rd round pick.

The only time that you see what the NHL teams are actually thinking is when they make the actual draft picks.

The concern was that Vancouver had Dubios high and he never would have gotten past Vancouver, which is why Columbus did not want to move to 6. There also was a rumour that Edmonton was going to select the Russian Dman at 4 before the Fin fell to their lap. It doesn't appear the Dubois was on Edmonton's radar at all.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Again things we just don't know......

How did Columbus not trade down with Edmonton

They were about to. Until Edmonton realized Columbus was taking Dubois one way or the other, and decided they didn't need to give up an asset.

Calgary to get a 2nd round pick

Because then

Calgary - Puljujarvi
Edmonton - Defenseman
Vancouver - Dubois

happens.

I do not think that the consensus TSN , Central scouting lists (or CP lists) match up all that closely with the professional teams lists.

The only time that you see what the NHL teams are actually thinking is when they make the actual draft picks.

There are 30, soon to be 31 different teams. Each one has its own list. One team might take one player 10 / 10 times at a given spot, another team might never take that same player twenty spots down. And positional need does factor in sometimes.

There is no such thing as predicting draft order, only probability, which the most common occurrences between CSS and media (TSN / FC / RLR), and other lists shine some light on, non-definitively.

It's safe to say that Bennett vs Draisaitl for example is an interesting comparision of tradeoffs. On one end you had a kid, a 17 year old for his draft year, with a lot of physical development left to go, I think he weighed in at around 180 lbs at the time, whereas for his frame you would expect a playing weight closer to 200, 205 lbs, with a good balance between goal scoring and playmaking, with an emphasis on speed. On the other hand you had another kid, an 18 year old for his same draft year, who had the physical development close to completion, already weighing in around 210 lbs, with a skew more towards playmaking. Speed, particularly acceleration, was the major area of concern / development.

Talent-wise, these players were flat out impossible to compare. It's apples and oranges. They're not the same age, they're not at the same stage of physical development, they're not at the same stage of skating development. You watch them play and they have different advantages and disadvantages that they apply at the point, which may change in the future.

Really, all it boils down to is what an individual team wants. But in general, when a younger, less developed player, especially in a highly scouted league like CHL, is ranked higher across every board, as Bennett was to Draisaitl, it's usually a sign that long-term, that player is a higher-upside prospect. Older players are closer to their plateau - they may be easier to project and thus less risky. Some scouts prefer lower risk over higher upside. This is an individual preference, there is no right answer. For me, when I can't differentiate usefully in things like hockey sense, IQ, and work ethic, I do look at age, physical room-for-growth and prefer the less developed player.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

so hard to tell..... The Flames already had Brodie, Gio and Gaudreau in the system when Monahan was picked.

Monahan had an easier path to #1 C than any either Lindholm (Eric and Jordan Staal were stronger and harder to take ice time away than Backlund and Stajan) or even Drasaitl (RNH/Roy).


While playing this imaginary what if scenarios : What if Bennett would have joined the Flames before Monahan?

Even with Bennett's injury in his 18 year old season he would have been far ahead of Monahan when Monahan joined the team. If Bennett had his 18-18- 36 rookie year I would doubt that Monahan would have had his 34 pt rookie season with 16 minutes of ice time.

Gio, Brodie, and Gaudreau were not who they are today at the 2013 draft floor. Gio and Brodie would really start to show the hockey world they were a left top pair during Monahan's rookie season. Gaudreau was looking promising at the 2013 draft (rumors the Bruins wanted him and the 6th pick for Seguin).

Monahan was the symbol of the Flames rebuild like Hall was the symbol for the Oilers failed tankbuild. Monahan represented the first top 10 pick since Phaneuf 10 years earlier. He joined the team as a 18 year old and the team was expected to suck. No one thought they would be close to the playoffs and while they battled they finished 27th.

A big difference with Bennett was how quickly the expectations changed. Thanks to the 2015 run many (including myself) saw the Flames as a playoff team and expected a lot from Bennett immediately. He didn't get eased into the centre position like Monahan. He had to play the wing and try and compete in the top 6. Had he been brought into the same situation as Monahan and given great zone starts and matchups he probably gets over 40pts as a rookie and has a better year than Monahan.

When Monahan joined the team he had zero competition with the exception of Sven. Monahan got to be a stud youngster this organization had not seen since Phaneuf in 05-06. By the time Bennett was a rookie Monahan and Gaudreau were legit stud first liners and he was expected to be the same. I think he will get there but he is facing a tougher situation in my opinion. Higher expectations and higher stakes as the Flames want to win now

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

What's curious is that Bennett, Monahan, Tkachuk is winning this despite short memories as the poll going into the 2013 draft had more posters picking Lindholm than Monahan in the poll for the Flames pick. There was a lot of talk of Tkachuk being possibly the 3rd overall prospect going into the draft while Monahan was never in top 5 talk for his draft. Maybe some voters don't understand that the vote is based on where they were in their draft years and not how good they are today or will be?

Not all drafts are equal. Monahan was in a draft with MacKinnon, Jones, Barkov and Drouin - no shame in going 6th (and many of us had him ahead of Lindholm).

Tkachuk also ended up 6th, but I doubt there are many people anywhere who would suggest that Dubois and Juolevi are better prospects than Drouin, Barkov or Jones were considered at their time.

THere are no bad memories here that I can see - Monahan was in the top 3 discussion for part of the year, until Drouin and Barkov started to emerge.

Again, most people here are saying that Monahan and Tkachuk are close, and I think that's a pretty reasonable assessment.

[tko]

Voted MBT

Would change that to BTM now that I've read and understand

[Badgers Nose]

Nvm i dont like this thread

[jlh2640]

1. Matt
2. Monahan
3. Bennett

[herashak]

Monahan was a potential good 2c with some 1c attributes like his IQ and on ice-awareness with good faceoff ability. Seems like tkatchuk is touted with that same IQ and awareness in a different way. I would have gone with the, imo safer pick, the center Monahan. I think based on Tkachuks numbers in the OHL and his quick hands and smarts he has a bit more offensive potential. But Monahans numbers with a bad 67's team showed he could produce offense, and that was right. I'd take bennett first.

[dying4acup]

Originally Posted by herashak

Monahan was a potential good 2c with some 1c attributes like his IQ and on ice-awareness with good faceoff ability. Seems like tkatchuk is touted with that same IQ and awareness in a different way. I would have gone with the, imo safer pick, the center Monahan. I think based on Tkachuks numbers in the OHL and his quick hands and smarts he has a bit more offensive potential. But Monahans numbers with a bad 67's team showed he could produce offense, and that was right. I'd take bennett first.

You have it right. If in 2013 the Flames picked a winger, any winger even Drouin, the Flames would have been destroyed. Even in 2016, if there was a potential #1 center available at 6, I take him. Hell if there is a #1 defenseman available, I take him.

In a rebuild, you build up on DMen and Centers. They are easy to move for wingers, even elite wingers, when the time comes. It's the same reason baseball teams draft starting pitching.

[Iniggywetrust]

I guess they would be ranked in numerical order...1 then 2, followed by 3. Very unlikely any of them would be fourth.