[Signing] Avs re-sign MacKinnon to 7 year deal ($6.3 mil AAV)

[doctajones428]

Originally Posted by sun

8 years x $1-2 million is a small fraction? If Gaudreau takes a discount, why shouldn't Monahan? I think they'll both be paid what they're worth, and Gaudreau is worth more.

I admitted that I might be missing something, when/where did they say several times that they wanted identical contracts? Kane/Toews did it, I guess, but I would argue their values are closer than Gaudreau/Monahan.

You might see it as a certainty, simple, the end, but I don't.

I will admit "a small fraction" was an over exaggeration on my part, but, lets look at some numbers (Keep in mind, the earliest extension on this list was in 2011, when the salary cap was 13.6m lower than it is now.)

Gaudreau - .89PPG - ???
Hall - (At the time) .84PPG - $6M
Eberle - (At the time) .8PPG - $6M
Tarasenko - (At the time) .75 PPG - $7.5M
Tavares - (At the time) - .75PPG - $5.5M
Hopkins - (At the time) .74PPG - $6M
Benn - (At the time) .73PPG - $5.25M
Forsberg - .72 PPG - $6M
Couture - (At the time) .72PPG - $6M
Duchene - (At the time) .72PPG - $6M
MacKinnon - .70 PPG $6.3M
Monahan - .67 PPG - ???
Scheifele - .64 PPG $6.125
Seguin - (At the time) .63 PPG - $5.75M
Barkov - .62 PPG - $5.9M
-
AVERAGE - 0.72 PPG - $6,030,000

To be quite honest, I am surprised the average was so low, and felt Johnny deserved atleast $8 million per season, but that just simply isn't the going rate for these first extensions

Hall is the closest comparable to Gaudreau on this list. .12 PPG above average netted him the average salary, so Johnny's .05 PPG (6% increase) theoretically should give him roughly another $361,000 on top of that:

$6,030,000
+
$361,000
=
$6,391,000

Even when we factor in that Hall's contract, which was at the time 10% of the salary cap, if we add that to the average we still get just under $7,000,000, still less than Tarasenko

Also:

http://calgaryherald.com/sports/hock...udreau-monahan

Originally Posted by Johnny Gaudreau

“So if it was up to us, I think we would sign the same deal and get back after it next season. But the agents are smart and they’re professionals at what they do. I trust my agent (Lewis Gross). He looks after me and does a lot for me.”

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/c...-contract-rfa/

Originally Posted by Johnny Gaudreau

"We have such great chemistry together and we can find each other on the ice and we’re great buddies off the ice – which helps on the ice as well – and, you know, I’m looking forward to the next however many years we’re going to be together"

Edit: 99% sure I fixed my math errors. If something is still off let me know

[Vulcan]

One argument for them both getting the same contracts is that Monahan plays the more difficult and important position which also may sacrifice some offence stats. I would guess they both came in at about $6.25 to $6.5M.

[sun]

Originally Posted by doctajones428

I will admit "a small fraction" was an over exaggeration on my part, but, lets look at some numbers (Keep in mind, the earliest extension on this list was in 2011, when the salary cap was 13.6m lower than it is now.)

Gaudreau - .89PPG - ???
Hall - (At the time) .84PPG - $6M
Eberle - (At the time) .8PPG - $6M
Tarasenko - (At the time) .75 PPG - $7.5M
Tavares - (At the time) - .75PPG - $5.5M
Hopkins - (At the time) .74PPG - $6M
Benn - (At the time) .73PPG - $5.25M
Forsberg - .72 PPG - $6M
Couture - (At the time) .72PPG - $6M
Duchene - (At the time) .72PPG - $6M
MacKinnon - .70 PPG $6.3M
Monahan - .67 PPG - ???
Scheifele - .64 PPG $6.125
Seguin - (At the time) .63 PPG - $5.75M
Barkov - .62 PPG - $5.9M
-
AVERAGE - 0.72 PPG - $5,300,000

Taylor Hall is the closest comparable on this list, .12PPG above average netted him an extra $700,000. So theoretically, Johnny's extra .5PPG on Hall should earn him roughly another $400,000 on top of that ($1,100,000)

$5,300,000
+
$1,100,000
=
$6,400,000

To be quite honest, I am surprised the average was so low, and felt Johnny deserved atleast $8 million per season, but that just simply isn't the going rate for these first extensions

Also:

http://calgaryherald.com/sports/hock...udreau-monahan



http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/c...-contract-rfa/

Thanks for the quotes, but your math is off. Average is $6.03MM.

When Kane/Toews signed their identical 5 year extensions, they were coming off a season where Toews scored 69P in 82GP, Kane 70P in 80GP.

Career totals were:
Toews 139P in 166GP, third youngest captain in league history, plays the tougher position.
Kane - 155P in 168GP, Calder winner.

These guys signed identical contracts because their value was identical. I think Gaudreau is definitely more valuable than Monahan, though I respect the argument that Monny plays the tougher position, more experienced, etc. I think it's possible they sign the same contract, but unlikely. Monny is a young #1 center, but Johnny is a superstar. If they want the AAV to be the same, then the term will be different and the I assume the Flames won't want that.

As an aside, Kane and Toews have the SAME AGENT.

Johnny says "if it were up to us", but it ain't and he admits as such.

Splitting the difference is a compromise between two parties that want different things. They both lose. I want $100, he wants to give me $80, we meet in the middle and I get $90. I lose, he loses.

Johhny deserves $8x8, Monny deserves $7x8 (for example), they meet in the middle at $7.5. Johnny loses $0.5MM and Monny wins $0.5MM. Why?

If they sign the same contract, it doesn't really affect us. We'll be overpaying (slightly) for Monahan and underpaying (slightly) for Gaudreau. ~$15MM/year either way. But the total 8 year contract value for the two players - Monahan wins a few mill and Gaudreau loses a few mill. I don't think Johnny's agent is gonna go for that.

Is Johnny worth more? I believe so, which is why I believe he'll earn more, one way or another.

[doctajones428]

Originally Posted by sun

Thanks for the quotes, but your math is off. Average is $6.03MM.

When Kane/Toews signed their identical 5 year extensions, they were coming off a season where Toews scored 69P in 82GP, Kane 70P in 80GP.

Career totals were:
Toews 139P in 166GP, third youngest captain in league history, plays the tougher position.
Kane - 155P in 168GP, Calder winner.

These guys signed identical contracts because their value was identical. I think Gaudreau is definitely more valuable than Monahan, though I respect the argument that Monny plays the tougher position, more experienced, etc. I think it's possible they sign the same contract, but unlikely. Monny is a young #1 center, but Johnny is a superstar. If they want the AAV to be the same, then the term will be different and the I assume the Flames won't want that.

As an aside, Kane and Toews have the SAME AGENT.

Johnny says "if it were up to us", but it ain't and he admits as such.

Splitting the difference is a compromise between two parties that want different things. They both lose. I want $100, he wants to give me $80, we meet in the middle and I get $90. I lose, he loses.

Johhny deserves $8x8, Monny deserves $7x8 (for example), they meet in the middle at $7.5. Johnny loses $0.5MM and Monny wins $0.5MM. Why?

If they sign the same contract, it doesn't really affect us. We'll be overpaying (slightly) for Monahan and underpaying (slightly) for Gaudreau. ~$15MM/year either way. But the total 8 year contract value for the two players - Monahan wins a few mill and Gaudreau loses a few mill. I don't think Johnny's agent is gonna go for that.

Is Johnny worth more? I believe so, which is why I believe he'll earn more, one way or another.

Damn it, missed a number.


Either way, only one guy on this list got way above the average, so I'm still not quite seeing how Johnny is going to get 7.5m. Numbers wise, yes, Johnny "deserves" 8 million, but I think most of these guys deserved much more than they got. Even if we say Johnny gets the average +10% and if Sean deserves a million less than him, splitting the difference would get them, exactly, $6,500,000 each

Between the actual averages and numbers and the going rate, I don't know how Johnny will have a solid case of commanding $8,000,0000. I could see it happening if he was in the league for 5+ years putting up consistent numbers, but he's still technically just breaking into the league and hasn't had enough time to completely prove himself yet. (No I'm not suggesting his numbers will plummet)

Anyways, Sean and Johnny have the final say in this whole thing, not their agents, so I really would not be shocked if they didn't care about, in comparison to what they're going to be making, a small amount of money

[PlayfulGenius]

Originally Posted by doctajones428

Damn it, missed a number.

$6,030,000 + $1,100,000 = $7,130,000

Either way, only one guy on this list got over the average, so I'm still not quite seeing how Johnny is going to get 7.5m. Numbers wise, yes, Johnny "deserves" 8 million, but I think most of these guys deserved much more than they got. Even if we say Johnny gets the average, and if Sean deserves a million less than him, splitting the difference would get them $6,630,000 each, the almost exact number I've been predicting.

Between the actual averages and numbers and the going rate, I don't know how Johnny will have a solid case of commanding $8,000,0000.

Anyways, Sean and Johnny have the final say in this whole thing, not their agents, so I really would not be shocked if they didn't care about, in comparison to what they're going to be making, a small amount of money

this math is wrong now, too... and the $1.1MM figure was derived from a difference using the incorrect original average.

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

this math is wrong now, too... and the $1.1MM figure was derived from a difference using the incorrect original average.

Aside from the math being off, I have a hard time buying Hall, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Benn, Tavares and Seguin as comparable contracts. The cap was way less 5 years ago so it's a different world.

[doctajones428]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

this math is wrong now, too... and the $1.1MM figure was derived from a difference using the incorrect original average.

Fixed again.

I should add I did all this on my phone, switching between numbers and the calculator is beyond tedious

[doctajones428]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

Aside from the math being off, I have a hard time buying Hall, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Benn, Tavares and Seguin as comparable contracts. The cap was way less 5 years ago so it's a different world.

Hall's contract was just over 10% of the salary cap. 10% of today's cap is 7.1m, less than what Tarasenko makes. He's still the exception

[Sylvanfan]

What does Tarasenkos hero chart look like? He's more of a pure goal scorer than Gaudreau, but less of a play maker. But that's my out of date old man eye test.

With the no offer sheet leverage I wonder if the Flames are trying to get as many years as possible for less. Whereas Gaudreau and his camp might be looking for 2-3 years now and a double digit AAV million money on the next deal.

I don't think Monahan should be paid more than MacKinnon. I would bet on MacKinnon being the more productive guy over the next 7 years. Although if you get the 8th year I would be okay with a slight bump in AAV.

[FiveSeven]

JG vs VT
Mony vs Mack

Spoiler!

[Sylvanfan]

Oh yeah the Flames players don't even come close to measuring up. 6.5 for JG at the most and a hair over 5 for SM.

[calgaryblood]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Oh yeah the Flames players don't even come close to measuring up. 6.5 for JG at the most and a hair over 5 for SM.

Tarasenko plays for a much better team especially defensively. Very hard to compare players without context using hero charts.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by calgaryblood

Tarasenko plays for a much better team especially defensively. Very hard to compare players without context using hero charts.

hopefully he was being sarcastic

[PlayfulGenius]

I'd take Gaudreau over Tarasenko, personally... The difference, for me, is his play on the neutral zone, particularly without the puck...in the playoffs this year, I saw very little of value from Tarasenko in this area, whereas Gaudreau reminds me of Datsyuk, and I think he'll only get better and better in this area.

[Inglewood Jack]

heh a MacKinnon signing thread where everything is being talked about except for MacKinnon. poor guy says he wants to take it on his shoulders to help the Avs get to the next level, but I think an argument can be made out of the top 10 picks from 2013, he's tied with Horvat in terms of being stuck on a dead end team (and Horvat could escape, or just end up part of a terrible Benning trade before he's up for renewal).

with the tools Nate Mac has, he should be a ppg dominant centre by now. just like Mickey said to Rocky once, it's a waste of life. I hope he someday finds a way out of the Avs clown circus before his career is on the downslide.

[Sylvanfan]

Colorado is a strange organization. They should have pieces to be a much better team, but they have had no consistency. Granted St.Louis had that great run to make the playoffs in 08-09, than floundered for a couple of years until they finally got Hitchcock in place than solidified themselves as a mainstay upper echelon team for the past 5 seasons. Maybe something similar needs to shake down in Colorado. Remove the legendary former players from having too much say in how the on ice product is assembled and ran, and bring in experienced guys who know how to do it.

Re: Hero charts...yeah I'm being sarcastic. Some of these advanced stats things always give me the feel that Oiler fans invented them to prove their team as being better than it really was, and why everyone on the Flames was really one of the worst players ever to lace up skates....hence the 5 Giordano's on their defence. I mean I maybe buy Monahan as a second line center more than a top line guy....but a 50% chance that he's a third line guy or worse and third liner being the higest number...what am I missing? I guess he is a mediocre player worth a league average salary?

[Bingo]

I think the next big level of analytics will attempt to figuere out how much quality of teammates and quality of the team itself sway numbers like shot attempts.

Playing on a deeper team has to help things like shot generation and shot suppression.