Scenario: If YOU had to a pick a dman at 6 which one?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Well suggesting Andersson is in anyway comparable to Lidstrom seems equally atrocious to me.

Sure Andersson has impressed and has probably boosted his draft stock. He'd go higher in a redraft. But I don't think it's "atrocious logic" to think that one of the top 3 dmen taken this year has a higher potential than him.

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

LOL! So Andersson is a first-ballot hall-of-famer now?

The lack of reading comprehension that is displayed sometimes absolutely astounds me.

He/she never said anything of the sort. The original post made an erroneous claim about the best defenseman in a draft being a function of where they were drafted, and GranteedEV pointed out that that is a terrible way to look at it because the best defenseman in the draft is almost never the first one selected. He mentioned Lidstrom as an illustration of that fact.

At no time did he/she say anything even remotely close to comparing Andersson with Lidstrom.

Seriously, does anyone ever actually stop and think for one second before they wail away on the keyboard?

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The lack of reading comprehension that is displayed sometimes absolutely astounds me.

The lack of understanding of probability that is displayed sometimes absolutely astounds me.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

He/she never said anything of the sort. The original post made an erroneous claim about the best defenseman in a draft being a function of where they were drafted, and GranteedEV pointed out that that is a terrible way to look at it because the best defenseman in the draft is almost never the first one selected. He mentioned Lidstrom as an illustration of that fact.

At no time did he/she say anything even remotely close to comparing Andersson with Lidstrom.

Seriously, does anyone ever actually stop and think for one second before they wail away on the keyboard?

I'm simply pointing out the blindingly obvious fact that there's a correlation between where recently drafted players are drafted and their likely success in the NHL. I can't fathom how someone could believe otherwise. Would it be crazy to trade Poirier for the 2nd overall pick because we haven't any idea what kind of player Laine/Puljujarvi turns out to be? Because that's pretty much what you're saying if you think the highest d-man drafted this year is unlikely to turn out any better than Andersson.

[dustygoon]

Is there flight risk with Sergachev?

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

Is there flight risk with Sergachev?

He's playing in the OHL. Can anyone point to a highly drafted Russian playing in North America pre draft who didn't report?

[cral12]

Can make arguments for Joulevi & Sergachev, but if my hand was forced think I'd go with Chychrun.

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

He's playing in the OHL. Can anyone point to a highly drafted Russian playing in North America pre draft who didn't report?

I think he would sign his ELC and play first years, but I'm more worried about what he does if he doesn't like his second contract.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

Is there flight risk with Sergachev?

Well the KHL is a less attractive option than it was a few years back. Guys like Jagr have come back and Radulov wants to.

As well Sergachev has supposedly acclimatized well, learned the language well and gets along with his teammates.

I think with him it's not a huge risk but it's always a small one.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The lack of understanding of probability that is displayed sometimes absolutely astounds me.

This is what you said:

"If the best d-man in this year's draft is no better than the player picked 53rd last year, then this will be a historic, astonishingly bad draft."

This is not what you said:

"A defenseman expected taken in the 4 to 12 range of this year's draft has seemingly greater probability* in producing successful NHLers than a defenseman taken in the late second round of a different year's draft. A "successful NHLer" being defined by a player who plays in the NHL rather than the best defenseman in his draft class or an elite defenseman."

I'm simply pointing out the blindingly obvious fact that there's a correlation between where recently drafted players are drafted and their likely success in the NHL. I can't fathom how someone could believe otherwise. Would it be crazy to trade Poirier for the 2nd overall pick because we haven't any idea what kind of player Laine/Puljujarvi turns out to be? Because that's pretty much what you're saying if you think the highest d-man drafted this year is unlikely to turn out any better than Andersson.

Defensemen (outside of precocious phenoms - who are exceptions and only come around every four-five drafts) don't follow the same rules as forwards. The D position takes until age 22, 23, 24 to develop so drafting at age 17, 18 means high volatility. When talking about Tier II / Tier III draft-year defensemen like Ceci, Werenski, Fleury, Honka, Sanheim, DeAngelo, Nurse, Morin, Morrissey, Pulock, Zadorov, Mueller you are not talking about anywhere near finished products. You're talking about highly flawed prospects. Players taken in the 2nd round have their share of warts, but the ETA on all these players is so long that you can't predict which flaws will be corrected.

That's why 2nd round drafted players like Subban, Keith, Josi, Chara, Weber, are not "exceptions" they are every bit the norm. There is just so much development from draft day to age 25 that drafting elite defensemen (which is what you're expecting of these guys, not generic 2nd pair guys which is what probability would suggest) is guesswork, not science.

Juolevi will more probably be an NHLer? Okay.
Kylington is up in the air on whether he will be an NHLer? Okay.
Juolevi might be a top pair guy? Yes.
Kylington might be a top pair guy? Yes.

Kylington might be the best defenseman in his draft class? There is nothing more outlandish about that claim than saying that about Provorov or Hanifin or Werenski. He just has a longer mountain to climb. It is not an indicator of a poor draft class in any way. It's simply an indicator of a particular individual's development path.

A Juolevi's draft position indicates not that he will be a "better" NHLer. It indicates that he at age 17 has few blemishes to work on. Less flaws rather than more significantly game-breaking attributes. There's a clear separation among those two concepts which is what makes your aformentioned claim flawed.

This discussion stemmed from claims that Chychrun, Juolevi, etc project more as good top ~3-4 defensemen rather than workhorse #1 defensemen. If you agree with this notion, then you agree their projections don't particularily separate them from the likes of Andersson or Kylington who have similar projections. Andersson and Kylington have more kinks to iron out. They may never be NHLers because of that. But they could very easily be better NHLers because that's how far away they are from contributing.

Draft position has no strong correlation with upside. Upside is not the only reason players are drafted however. Cam Fowler is a good second pair defenseman. No one is confusing him for a #1 but he's a good player. Cam Fowler does not need to be as valuable as Colton Parayko to be a pretty good asset.

This isn't being homeristic about our prospects. It's simply asking "What is the value-added for a player to be taken so high in the draft"? Is there any additional upside or are you paying the price for more NHL-readiness? Is there a rare physical tool set like Darnell Nurse or Dougie Hamilton as the value-added?

These are legitimate questions and they SHOULD be compared with our prospect base. If you don't think Andersson has high potential you should ask "why" not waive it off altogether only because he was drafted 53rd overall.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Defensemen (outside of precocious phenoms - who are exceptions and only come around every four-five drafts) don't follow the same rules as forwards. The D position takes until age 22, 23, 24 to develop so drafting at age 17, 18 means high volatility. When talking about Tier II / Tier III draft-year defensemen like Ceci, Werenski, Fleury, Honka, Sanheim, DeAngelo, Nurse, Morin, Morrissey, Pulock, Zadorov, Mueller you are not talking about anywhere near finished products. You're talking about highly flawed prospects. Players taken in the 2nd round have their share of warts, but the ETA on all these players is so long that you can't predict which flaws will be corrected.

Werenksi is a tier 1 defense prospect to me. I think Nurse still has top pairing potential as well. Not as familiar with the others.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

That's why 2nd round drafted players like Subban, Keith, Josi, Chara, Weber, are not "exceptions" they are every bit the norm.

Nope, those are definitely the exception and not the norm.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

There is just so much development from draft day to age 25 that drafting elite defensemen (which is what you're expecting of these guys, not generic 2nd pair guys which is what probability would suggest) is guesswork, not science.

Same holds true for forwards although they do develop faster in most cases.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Juolevi will more probably be an NHLer? Okay.
Kylington is up in the air on whether he will be an NHLer? Okay.
Juolevi might be a top pair guy? Yes.
Kylington might be a top pair guy? Yes.

Kylington might be the best defenseman in his draft class? There is nothing more outlandish about that claim than saying that about Provorov or Hanifin or Werenski. He just has a longer mountain to climb. It is not an indicator of a poor draft class in any way. It's simply an indicator of a particular individual's development path.

I think Hanifin, Werenski and Provorov have a much, much, much higher chance of being the best defensemen in last years class. All 3 are more well rounded, bigger, better defensively, stronger than Kylington. Kylington looks like he's likely to be a 2nd or 3rd pairing puck rushing, powerplay QB who you would never put on the PK because his defense will never be elite. Hanifin, Werenksi, Provorov all have that top pairing potential IMO.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

A Juolevi's draft position indicates not that he will be a "better" NHLer. It indicates that he at age 17 has few blemishes to work on. Less flaws rather than more significantly game-breaking attributes. There's a clear separation among those two concepts which is what makes your aformentioned claim flawed.

I would suggest he has a higher upside and a higher likelihood of achieving it.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

This discussion stemmed from claims that Chychrun, Juolevi, etc project more as good top ~3-4 defensemen rather than workhorse #1 defensemen.

Depends on your definition of #1 defensemen. According to some people's definition there aren't anywhere near 30 of them so calling them a good #2 is a completely different animal from thinking they'd be second pairing guys. The guys at the top of this draft have top pairing potential even if they won't end as a franchise d-men ala Ekblad, Pronger, Lidstrom.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

If you agree with this notion, then you agree their projections don't particularily separate them from the likes of Andersson or Kylington who have similar projections. Andersson and Kylington have more kinks to iron out. They may never be NHLers because of that. But they could very easily be better NHLers because that's how far away they are from contributing.

Prospects can always end up surprising and developing further than anyone though (see Brodie). But Andersson and Kylington are not good bets to be top pairing d-men. Werenski, Hanifin, Provorov, Chychrun, Sergachev and Juolevi are better bets to be top pairing d-men for a variety of reasons including size and defensive profiency.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Draft position has no strong correlation with upside. Upside is not the only reason players are drafted however. Cam Fowler is a good second pair defenseman. No one is confusing him for a #1 but he's a good player. Cam Fowler does not need to be as valuable as Colton Parayko to be a pretty good asset.

Draft position definitely does have a strong correlation with upside. It's easy to find superstars in the top 3. Hard to find them outside of there. Easy to find top pairing d-men in the top 10-15, hard to find them outside of there. Fowler may still evolve into a top pairing d-man.

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

This isn't being homeristic about our prospects. It's simply asking "What is the value-added for a player to be taken so high in the draft"? Is there any additional upside or are you paying the price for more NHL-readiness? Is there a rare physical tool set like Darnell Nurse or Dougie Hamilton as the value-added?

Juolevi, Chychrun and Sergachev are rare talents that have top pairing potential to play in every situation. They aren't ranked this highly solely due to being close to NHL ready.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Here's a post I wrote on HF while arguing with Nuck fans over where they can get top young defensemen.

"Yep there are top end d-men available in the later rounds of the draft. But do you know what the % chance of finding an elite d-man late in the draft is? Ridiculously low. Certainly you can't count on it. You can't count on winning the lottery and finding a Norris winner late just like you shouldn't count on getting a Gaudreau in the 4th or a Benn in the 5th.

The highest % chance of finding an elite d-man is to take one in the top 10-15. Same goes for forwards. It's simple math if you really analyze it.

Who are the most promising young d-men in the game right now?

http://toomanymenonthesite.com/2015/...ears-of-age/3/

Disagree with the list if you want but we can still draw some conclusions from it.

Out of that top 25 only Klingberg, Barrie, Krug, Faulk, Vatanen, and McNabb weren't 1st rounders.

OEL (6th overall), Hedman (2nd overall), Ekblad (1st overall), Hamilton (9th overall), Trouba (9th overall), Jones (4th overall), Murray (2nd overall), Dumba (7th overall), Lindholm (6th overall), Ellis (11th overall), Ceci (15th overall), Hanifin (3rd overall), Maatta (22nd overall), Klefbom (19th overall), Fowler (12th overall), Larsson (4th overall), Brodin (10th overall), Leddy (16th overall)

So it does seem that the vast majority of the best young defensemen in the league are drafted in the top 16. Can anyone deny it? Playing the odds your best chance of finding a top pairing or franchise defenseman is to draft one high."

Who are the franchise defensemen on that list and where were they drafted? Who are the top pairing d-men on that list and where were they drafted?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Brock Otten who watches the OHL closely has released his top prospects for the draft. These are his thoughts on the 3 OHL d-men.

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016...r-2016_20.html

3. Jakob Chychrun - Defence - Sarnia Sting
"The race between Chychrun, Sergachev, and Juolevi has been close all year and it remains that way to close out the season. I'm a fan of all three players and a sound argument can be made for either of the three being the best defender available. So here's why Chychrun is tops for me. It comes down to potential. While I do believe that Sergachev has the highest offensive ceiling Chychrun isn't too far behind (and is IMO ahead of Juolevi). Meanwhile, Chychrun is also the best defensively of the three, but also possesses the highest defensive ceiling of the three too. In essence, I see Chychrun as having the potential to develop into a dominant two-way defender who could challenge for multiple Norris trophies. Defensively, Chychrun has so many strong characteristics. Firstly, his positioning and ability to seal off forwards from chasing down loose pucks is among the best of any draft eligible defender that I've seen. If he was an NBA player, he'd be one hell of a rebounder. Part of that is because of his mobility. Part of that is because of his strength. Both are fantastic. Chychrun toys with playing physical and seems to be most willing to lower the boom when defending the rush. Adding a more consistent physical component to his game, especially when near the crease, would elevate his defensive ability even further. Offensively, his game runs off his skating. When he wants to, he can carry the puck deep into the offensive zone with ease. But that's the key. No question his offensive game regressed a bit this year. Could be a variety of reasons for that (Hatcher asking him to play more of a defensive role, feeling the pressure in his draft year, confidence, etc), but it did happen. He didn't seem as confident in jumping up in the play, or unleashing his slapshot (which is a good one). Chychrun also struggled at times with his decision making with the puck in his own end. Too many turnovers from trying to force plays up the ice. He needs to trust his skating ability to be able to create time and space for him to make better decisions. And, he needs to regain the confidence he showed in year one, that had him constantly looking to push the attack by skating the puck out of trouble. Quite frankly, I'm not concerned about any of the issues I've outlined. I think a lot are confidence and experience related and not competence. The physical skills are too good to pass up and he flashes so much brilliance that I refuse to believe that he has hockey sense issues, or limited offensive potential. That said, I wouldn't at all be surprised if he was the 3rd defender picked at the draft this year."

5. Mikhail Sergachev - Defence - Windsor Spitfires
"The following players have won the Max Kaminsky trophy (as the league's top defenseman) in their (original) draft year since 1990: Aaron Ekblad, Ryan Ellis, Drew Doughty, Bryan Berard, and Chris Pronger. Pretty damn good company. Bust rate = zero. Take that for what it's worth. Sergachev is an absolutely electric offensive player. Youtube and the OHL plays of the week are littered with Sergachev highlights. He's such an explosive skater and when you combine that with his puck control, creativity, and aggressiveness in jumping up in the play, you've got a defender who constantly pushes his way across the blueline to create scoring chances. I also love Sergachev's ability and poise when running the point on the powerplay. He possesses an absolute laser of a shot, specifically his one timer, which resulted in a league leading 17 goals from the blueline. Defensively, there are no doubt holes. His reads off the rush and in coverage are a work in progress. And he could stand to pick his spots a bit better when he chooses to jump up in the play. But here's the thing. The physical tools that he possesses suggest that his defensive game can and will improve. He's a willing physical combatant and can really lay the boom on forwards who try to go through him to the net. He's also a fantastic skater, which often covers up a lot of his errors at this level. If you're taking Sergachev early, you believe in his potential to be a perennial NHL all star, and I definitely see that. Bob McKenzie has stated several times that he could see Sergachev as the first defender drafted for that reason. And don't even bring up the U18's. Not a good gauge of the type of player he is, as he was asked to play a shutdown defender role on a team that had to play the majority of the time in their own end. Bottom line...I agree with Bobby Mac. Don't be surprised if this guy goes in the top 6 or 7."

6. Olli Juolevi - Defence - London Knights
"If I'm a team picking inside the lottery, I'm drafting the player who I believe has the highest upside. And that's why I've consistently had Juolevi ranked as the 3rd best d-prospect among the big 3 (with Sergachev and Chychrun) all season long. That's not to say that I see Juloevi as some scrub who'll end up on a 3rd pairing. It's more that I see Juolevi as that reliable 2nd pairing guy. Not incredibly flashy, but super efficient. Where as I see Chychrun/Sergachev possessing first pairing upside, and both possess better physical tools. If we're talking about Juolevi's best asset, it's most definitely his puck management. Rarely makes a bad pass or bad decision with the puck in his own end. His first pass and stretch pass might be the best of any defender in the OHL. Juolevi's skating stride is ultra smooth and his first few steps are excellent, which allows him to evade the forecheck and be calm under pressure. His shot is OK and I don't think he's naturally aggressive as a puck rusher. Thus, I don't see him being a massive point producer at the next level. But those qualities could obviously improve (and I could be wrong). Defensively, Juolevi's positioning and ability to stay with players off the rush is excellent. As is his general awareness without the puck. He's definitely not mean, and he'll likely forever be a stick/positional defender. But many guys are successful playing that way in the NHL. At the end of the day, while Juolevi isn't likely to be the type of defender who wins Norris trophies, he should be the type of guy who plays 10+ years in the NHL and plays 20 minutes a night. And that's why he's considered a near lock for the lottery."

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Juolevi, Chychrun and Sergachev are rare talents that have top pairing potential to play in every situation. They aren't ranked this highly solely due to being close to NHL ready.

Rare? Guys like this are available every draft. Way too much hype this draft.

[RyZ]

Juolevi just doesnt have the offensive upside for me for a 6th overall pick. Im sure he'll be a good, solid 2/3 defender for a long time in the NHL but Im not ready to pass up a Nylander/Keller/etc type player with 70+ pt upside for a steady 30-40 pt Dman so high up in the draft.

I dont think I want any of these D at #6 but if it has to happen I would have to lean towards Chychrun myself.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by New Era

Rare? Guys like this are available every draft. Way too much hype this draft.

I think rare in the sense that you are using a high pick (4-12) on these types of guys.

Of course there are similar players every draft year. Same can be said for forwards such as Nylander, Tkachuk, Dubois, etc. Doesn't mean you don't pick them.

[Mass_nerder]

Really interested in Sergachev.
I've been pretty bummed that we may miss out on Tkatchuck or Dubois, but the more I read about Sergachev, the more I would be excited with having him in our pool.

[the-rasta-masta]

I drafted Sergechev in NHL 2016, and the computer made him the captain when Gio retired. So...

[Trailer Fire]

Originally Posted by the-rasta-masta

I drafted Sergechev in NHL 2016, and the computer made him the captain when Gio retired. So...

I did the same with Tim Gettinger.

[timbit]

The big questions on Chychrun are his vision and hockey IQ.
He has all the physical, skating and stick skills to be a top pairing D. Very strong character, also.
Decision making is very difficult to develop. Either you have it or you don't, usually.
See Darnell Nurse.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

I'd have to take Sergachev. Juolevi second for me. Chychrun scares me tbh. Not very good signs. I'd rather take Sean Day in the 3rd round than take Chychrun in the 1st.

I'd be super thrilled with Sergachev. Everything I've seen tells me he will be a superstar in the NHL.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

This Chychrun hockey IQ issue seems to be a bit of a mirage as far as I'm concerned. The scouts who love Chychrun don't seem to have a problem with his hockey IQ at all. I'm not even sure I've seen a scouting report on Chychrun that questions his hockey IQ. Fans have speculated he fell due to hockey IQ and now this opinion has been repeated enough that people think its a fact.

What we know:
-Chychrun had one of the most impressive 16 year old seasons by a d-men in recent history
-Chychrun didn't follow it up with as impressive of a 17 year old season as some were expecting. Note that Chychrun didn't have a horrible season, and many scouts continue to believe he has the highest overall upside of the defenders
-Tkachuk, Dubois, Juolevi, Nylander and Sergachev all had outstanding seasons so some of them have passed Chychrun according to the scouts that were disappointed by his season this year

This talk of him dropping due to hockey IQ is more than a little bit overstated IMO. Not every defenseman who logs 25+ minutes is going to make flawless decisions at age 17. Chychrun reportedly played through several injuries. Chychrun still has time to iron out kinks in his outlet game. It's not like he can't develop further and improve his ability in this area.

To me Chychrun has the upside to be a bigger, more physical Brodie who has a better slapshot. That's scary high upside.