Flames Fan Forum

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by blender

Re the faceoffs issue:
They may just be throwing something out there at the forum rather than going into depth about an area of the team's performance that is lacking.

In other words, pointing to an area that does need work rather than throwing anybody under the bus.

Sounds like throwing the Centers under the bus.

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Who said this one? It's a concerning quote.

It's been proven that faceoffs have a near zero impact on team success and it worries me that somebody in management would believe they are so important that they are the reason our PK is downright awful.

If the team is trying to improve the PK by improving their faceoff ability - it won't work.

How is it concerning? If you win the draw and a PK and clear the zone it kills time. It's a pretty straight forward and simple thing.

And it is not proven that faceoffs have near zero impact on team success, all that has been proven is that some teams can succeed in spite of not winning faceoffs.

[blender]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

Sounds like throwing the Centers under the bus.

Not so much, as there is blame to go around and they can only be so bad relative to the other centers in the league.
Is Hartley going to stand up there and single out one of his staff?
I'm just saying one can't take every utterance as gospel. They are telling inquiring fans what they want to tell them, nothing more.

I guess to be more specific, I should have said throwing one individual under the bus.

[MarkGio]

Even if it was one extra faceoff victory attributed to the PK per game, that's still something considering that PK% ranges from 75 to 85 between the best and worst teams

I like to believe in hockey every play matters.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

How is it concerning? If you win the draw and a PK and clear the zone it kills time. It's a pretty straight forward and simple thing.

And it is not proven that faceoffs have near zero impact on team success, all that has been proven is that some teams can succeed in spite of not winning faceoffs.

or you can read the next few posts in this thread

zero correlation between team success and faceoffs over such a large sample size typically means no causation.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

or you can read the next few posts in this thread

zero correlation between team success and faceoffs over such a large sample size typically means no causation.

Right, but there's correlation between team success and possession? Isn't possession the new thing? To me somethings not adding up since faceoffs directly affect possession.

Where is this zero correlation anyhow?

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

or you can read the next few posts in this thread

zero correlation between team success and faceoffs over such a large sample size typically means no causation.

Nothing is proven like you claimed and you can't just look at overall FO% and decide they suck on draws but won the cup because most winning teams have a FO specialist they can roll out there for important draws and winning important faceoffs is absolutely vital. But you can keep believe that they are no important or have no impact.

[Samonadreau]

The point trying to be made is their special teams across the board are pathetic and the best reason they can come up with is faceoffs.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Right, but there's correlation between team success and possession? Isn't possession the new thing? To me somethings not adding up since faceoffs directly affect possession.

Where is this zero correlation anyhow?

The basis behind the belief that faceoffs have a neglibile impact on team success is that they have a negligible impact on possession.

But even ignoring possession stats since many don't like them, if you think about it logicially as I have presented, elite faceoff teams will win less than 1 more faceoff on the PK per game than bad teams (and in reality it's far closer to zero than to 1).

And to add more on to that, losing a faceoff is not the equivalent of gifting the opposition a scoring chance. So now, what rate are opposition teams capitalizing on this less than 1 more faceoff win per game?

A near zero number multiplied by a near zero number is a near zero number.

[getbak]

Here are the Flames' special teams faceoff stats under Hartley...

Power Play:

• 2012-13 : 137 W / 135 L // 50.4% --- PP = 18.7% (14th)
• 2013-14 : 207 W / 226 L // 47.8% --- PP = 15.7% (24th)
• 2014-15 : 223 W / 236 L // 48.6% --- PP = 18.0% (16th)
• 2015-16 : 174 W / 174 L // 50.0% --- PP = 15.6% (29th)

Penalty Kill:

• 2012-13 : 111 W / 180 L // 38.1% --- PK = 81.5% (14th)
• 2013-14 : 187 W / 266 L // 41.3% --- PK = 81.7% (18th)
• 2014-15 : 162 W / 207 L // 43.9% --- PK = 80.6% (20th)
• 2015-16 : 101 W / 155 L // 39.5% --- PK = 73.4% (30th)

There doesn't really seem to be a big correlation to faceoff wins and PP/PK effectiveness.

[puffnstuff]

Some faceoffs are more important than others.

[Ashasx]

Nm

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

How is it concerning? If you win the draw and a PK and clear the zone it kills time. It's a pretty straight forward and simple thing.

And it is not proven that faceoffs have near zero impact on team success, all that has been proven is that some teams can succeed in spite of not winning faceoffs.

The flames have won 98 faceoffs on the PK, and lost 151.

If just average, they'd have won 14 more faceoffs (15th place team is at 45.2%) so far all year.

Maybe 1 less PPG against? Is that a large impact? You're acting as though we can't measure these things

[Street Pharmacist]

The other thing with face offs is that there's relatively few clean wins. Many of them are winger wins, and that's unfair to the centers

[getbak]

This year's best PKs and their shorthanded faceoff rankings...

1. St. Louis Blues = 18
2. New York Islanders = 22
3. Anaheim Ducks = 2
4. Pittsburgh Penguins = 25
5. Washington Capitals = 11
6. Montréal Canadiens = 4
7. Boston Bruins = 5
8. Tampa Bay Lightning = 24
9. New Jersey Devils = 26
10. Los Angeles Kings = 19
11. Carolina Hurricanes = 3
12. Buffalo Sabres = 20
13. Florida Panthers = 6
14. Vancouver Canucks = 29
15. Edmonton Oilers = 7
16. San Jose Sharks = 23
17. Chicago Blackhawks = 30
18. Detroit Red Wings = 10
19. Columbus Blue Jackets = 21
20. Dallas Stars = 13
21. Toronto Maple Leafs = 17
22. Colorado Avalanche = 28
23. Nashville Predators = 16
24. Philadelphia Flyers = 9
25. Minnesota Wild = 14
26. New York Rangers = 8
27. Arizona Coyotes = 1
28. Winnipeg Jets = 15
29. Ottawa Senators = 12
30. Calgary Flames = 27

This year's best PPs and their power play faceoff rankings...

1. Washington Capitals = 15
2. Los Angeles Kings = 1
3. San Jose Sharks = 2
4. Boston Bruins = 19
5. Chicago Blackhawks = 14
6. New Jersey Devils = 17
7. Dallas Stars = 29
8. St. Louis Blues = 10
9. Anaheim Ducks = 6
10. New York Islanders = 25
11. Nashville Predators = 30
12. Buffalo Sabres = 5
13. Pittsburgh Penguins = 20
14. Arizona Coyotes = 4
15. Colorado Avalanche = 13
16. Philadelphia Flyers = 9
17. Edmonton Oilers = 24
18. Montréal Canadiens = 12
19. Detroit Red Wings = 22
20. Tampa Bay Lightning = 28
21. Ottawa Senators = 26
22. Minnesota Wild = 8
23. Columbus Blue Jackets = 16
24. Carolina Hurricanes = 3
25. Vancouver Canucks = 18
26. New York Rangers = 21
27. Florida Panthers = 11
28. Winnipeg Jets = 23
29. Calgary Flames = 27
30. Toronto Maple Leafs = 7

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

- Mark Jankowski: every facet of his game is good except pace of play. What they mean by pace is speed and decision making - still too slow for NHL. Every other piece is there, though. Mentioned again he could go free agent in August and the Flames would receive a compensatory second-round pick, but they would try to sign him.

One thing to consider is how little game experience Jankowski has. He's played 140 games at the NCAA level, which is the only high/Junior+ level) of play he's ever played at. Before ever playing an NHL game, Sam Bennett had 128 OHL games Plus 15 OHL Playoff Games. Most college guys either played in the USHL as 17-year olds like Gaudreau and Eichel, or played out full USHL careers before making the jump.

So basically, 21-Year Old Jankowski right now has about as much meaningful experience as "18 Year Old Sam Bennett", who himself is a work in progress with more raw talent than any player in this entire organization. Some time in the AHL will go a long way in my opinion. Some time in the AHL might be best for his development as he'll get plenty of games, and with a more regular schedule.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by getbak

This year's best PKs and their shorthanded faceoff rankings...

1. St. Louis Blues = 18
2. New York Islanders = 22
3. Anaheim Ducks = 2
4. Pittsburgh Penguins = 25
5. Washington Capitals = 11
6. Montréal Canadiens = 4
7. Boston Bruins = 5
8. Tampa Bay Lightning = 24
9. New Jersey Devils = 26
10. Los Angeles Kings = 19
11. Carolina Hurricanes = 3
12. Buffalo Sabres = 20
13. Florida Panthers = 6
14. Vancouver Canucks = 29
15. Edmonton Oilers = 7
16. San Jose Sharks = 23
17. Chicago Blackhawks = 30
18. Detroit Red Wings = 10
19. Columbus Blue Jackets = 21
20. Dallas Stars = 13
21. Toronto Maple Leafs = 17
22. Colorado Avalanche = 28
23. Nashville Predators = 16
24. Philadelphia Flyers = 9
25. Minnesota Wild = 14
26. New York Rangers = 8
27. Arizona Coyotes = 1
28. Winnipeg Jets = 15
29. Ottawa Senators = 12
30. Calgary Flames = 27

This year's best PPs and their power play faceoff rankings...

1. Washington Capitals = 15
2. Los Angeles Kings = 1
3. San Jose Sharks = 2
4. Boston Bruins = 19
5. Chicago Blackhawks = 14
6. New Jersey Devils = 17
7. Dallas Stars = 29
8. St. Louis Blues = 10
9. Anaheim Ducks = 6
10. New York Islanders = 25
11. Nashville Predators = 30
12. Buffalo Sabres = 5
13. Pittsburgh Penguins = 20
14. Arizona Coyotes = 4
15. Colorado Avalanche = 13
16. Philadelphia Flyers = 9
17. Edmonton Oilers = 24
18. Montréal Canadiens = 12
19. Detroit Red Wings = 22
20. Tampa Bay Lightning = 28
21. Ottawa Senators = 26
22. Minnesota Wild = 8
23. Columbus Blue Jackets = 16
24. Carolina Hurricanes = 3
25. Vancouver Canucks = 18
26. New York Rangers = 21
27. Florida Panthers = 11
28. Winnipeg Jets = 23
29. Calgary Flames = 27
30. Toronto Maple Leafs = 7

This shows something interesting. Only 6 of the top 15 power plays have sub par faceoff rankings and of those teams, they have Crosby, Benn, Seguin, Tavares and Weber (along with NJ and Boston). It doesn't necessarily have a correlation on the PK, but it does seem to have a correlation on the PP. Would be interesting to see other years info on this.

[Geeoff]

I think the biggest thing to take out of this is that the language they used suggests they don't think they will make the playoffs this season.

[tvp2003]

[bubbsy]

thanks for the read out of what was said.

nothing too surprising.

- glad to hear they realize this team isn't close just yet
- glad to hear they recognize there are bad contracts on the team and aren't afraid to call it out
- faceoffs on special teams is massive. It's one of those "eye test" vs "stat" things i suppose, but i'd love to see a correlation of goals vs no-goals over the course of a season when the first face off of a penalty alone is won by either the PP or PK team. That doesn't discount the flames seemingly being easy to score on when the other team is setup, and how aweful they've been with the man advantage on the flipside.

things i'd love to have heard about:
- what is the plan short/long term regarding what position bennet will play?
- do they intend to give any guys in the AHL a look this year up in the big leagues?
- any comment on why the AHL team has struggled to the degree they have this season?