Federal Election Polling Thread

[Lubicon]

The Conservatives know or suspect (through their internal polling) that the election for them will be decided in the suburban ridings surrounding Toronto (the so called 905 ridings). The NDP are pretty much a non factor here, it is basically a two horse race between the CPC and Liberals and this is where each party can pick up a good chunk of their seats. Hence it makes sense for them to go after Trudeau more than Mulcair, however it will be interesting to see if this changes as the campaign progresses.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Not surprising but more than anything shows people in Alberta would rather have the NDP federally than the Liberals which has to be demoralizing for them.





http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/ed...140/story.html

Originally Posted by rubecube

It's bizarre. I think the Liberals' policies are unquestionably friendlier to Alberta than the NDP's, yet you hear people keep saying that they'll never vote Liberal. Is this the same old NEP-grudge stuff, or do they like Mulcair better than Trudeau?

In Alberta though, this shapes up like provincial campaigns a couple cycles ago, where the Liberals/NDP might not have huge voter support across the province, but in concentration they are close and will win seats. I look at a couple ridings in Calgary where there are very few CPC signs on lawns and quite a few in comparison for the Liberals. Matt Grant in Confederation for example and Kent Hehr in Calgary Centre. I'm sure that the same thing is happening in Edmonton with the NDP. There are a few ridings that skew the rest of the city as well. Stephen Harper, Jason Kenney and Michelle Rempel for example will win by huge margins, so that drags the average up for all of the CPC city-wide.

Then of course you get to some of the rural areas and the CPC will win those with about 75% of the vote, so it skews things.

And purely anecdotally, I've heard more people who were solid CPC supporters who won't vote NDP because of the fear of the impact on our province and are voting Liberal in the last 24 hours than I would have ever expected. A stock market drop, combined with cratering oil prices will cause a lot of people to consider things carefully, and in bad times they do tend to oust incumbents.

[Nehkara]

Word out there that the Duffy trial is registering now... big shift.

New Forum poll:

NDP: 40%
LIB: 30%
CPC: 23%



And some hints from EKOS that their next poll will show something similar: (Frank Graves is president and founder of EKOS)

Corey D ‏@coreydahl Aug 25
@VoiceOfFranky Is EKOS coming out with new numbers this week? #exln42

Frank Graves ‏@VoiceOfFranky Aug 25
@coreydahl yes and they are really interesting IMHO.

Mike ‏@Mikercorcoran Aug 25
@VoiceOfFranky @coreydahl continued trend (for ekos) of cpc closing gap on ndp and small lib gain?

Frank Graves
‏@VoiceOfFranky
@Mikercorcoran @coreydahl nope. And some real movement. Duffy definitely registering.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Yeah, I came in to post that. If numbers start registering with other pollsters, this could be a very interesting shift. Forum has had some swings in the past that were corrected their next time in the field apparently, so that may be something to keep in mind. The tweets from EKOS make this real interesting though.

Also, not for nothing: election is still a long ways away.

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Yeah, I came in to post that. If numbers start registering with other pollsters, this could be a very interesting shift. Forum has had some swings in the past that were corrected their next time in the field apparently, so that may be something to keep in mind. The tweets from EKOS make this real interesting though.

Also, not for nothing: election is still a long ways away.

Yeah... this campaign is way too long. 7 more weeks.

[Slava]

And this is the last week of the Duffy trial during the campaign.

[c.t.ner]

This election is really starting to have some strong similarities to the Provincial election. But it'll be interesting to see how the added length (7 more weeks) impacts the results. The big question for the rest of the campaign is whether or not the NDP have peaked too early and can they sustain this support across the country over the next 7 weeks.

[Ashartus]

Interesting - that has the NDP with a higher percentage of the vote than what got the PCs a majority last time. I think the way votes are distributed would make it harder for the NDP than PCs but still a big shift. Being a bit nervous about the idea of an NDP majority government I'm hoping they have peaked.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I think the poll numbers if nothing else suggest no one is going to get a majority. The CPC would need a pretty big turnaround in BC and a massive surge in Ontario, otherwise I just don't see how they have the numbers to get a majority. I don't give either of the other two parties much chance at a majority, though it'll be the Liberals if anyone.

[EldrickOnIce]

^ If numbers/trends like above hold, we would see an NDP majority.
They are leading in Ontario and almost sweeping Quebec.
That will come close to doing it right there.

[Senator Clay Davis]

^I really don't buy their Ontario numbers. Rural voters are not voting for them, and Toronto is possible but right now looks like a Liberal/CPC battle mostly. Perhaps if there's some 3-way races they can come through the middle, but I still kinda doubt that too.

[octothorp]

The thing I'm skeptical of is a big drop in CPC support, a big rise in NDP support, and Liberal supporters staying essentially the same. I can see that as plausible in Alberta and maybe Quebec right now, but for most of the country, I would really expect that disenchanted soft conservatives are going to shift to the Liberals, not all the way over to the NDP.

[rubecube]

Dig some digging, and I think this might explain the skew in Forum's poll:


Past Federal Vote:
Sample = 1382
Con - 23%
Lib - 30%
NDP - 40%
Green - 3%
BQ - 3%
Other - 1%

[rubecube]

Some students at Sauder School of Business at UBC created a pretty cool simulator that allows you put in the predicted transposition of votes in this election and it then spits out a seat projection. I plugged in Forum's predictions in this and this is what I got:

NDP - 204
CPC - 82
LIB - 52
BQ - 0
GRN - 0
OTH - 0

Not very accurate, but I think part of that i because Forum didn't release any numbers for the likely preferences of people who didn't vote last time. Anyways, here's the link if you want to play around with it https://predictionmarkets.ca/forecast.php?db=CA15

[rubecube]

http://globalnews.ca/news/2189008/ne...across-canada/

First IPSOS poll in a month:

NDP 33%
LIB 30%
CON 29%
GRN 4%
BQ 4%

A couple of weird things to note, IPSOS is the only poll I've seen lately that has the Conservatives ahead in BC and the Liberals leading in Ontario.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Dig some digging, and I think this might explain the skew in Forum's poll:





Past Federal Vote:

Sample = 1382

Con - 23%

Lib - 30%

NDP - 40%

Green - 3%

BQ - 3%

Other - 1%

Are you suggesting the people they polled weren't representative?

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Are you suggesting the people they polled weren't representative?

I'd have to look at their methodology but if you have a higher percentage of NDP and Liberal voters sampled, then it stands to reason that you'd have a higher percentage of people saying they'd vote Liberal or NDP.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I'd have to look at their methodology but if you have a higher percentage of NDP and Liberal voters sampled, then it stands to reason that you'd have a higher percentage of people saying they'd vote Liberal or NDP.

The numbers you quoted suggest that the people sampled had EXACTLY the same distribution from 2011 as the current poll which is pretty much impossible. Either you're misinterpreting something or they made a mistake.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by edslunch

The numbers you quoted suggest that the people sampled had EXACTLY the same distribution from 2011 as the current poll which is pretty much impossible. Either you're misinterpreting something or they made a mistake.

Good catch. Their table was a bit funky. The past vote actually breaks down as CPC 32.6%, LIB 19.8%, 24.6% NDP.

[Nehkara]

EKOS and Nanos are the two pollsters I trust the most, so I'm curious what EKOS' poll says tomorrow.

I'm interested with Nanos too because their polls have been the only ones to consistently show the CPC ahead in the race. Their next one tomorrow will be intriguing.