Will the flames make the playoffs next year (2015/2016 season) ?

[Greybeard]

Ducks first in Pacific. Can Kings rebound to second.... maybe. Canucks older and going down. Oil maybe in two years. Sharks will be fighting for 8th. Coyotes hopeless. I think we have excellent chance for second or third in Pacific. Doesn't matter what rest of West does.

[Caged Great]

I think the three Pacific teams will be Ducks LA and Calgary. Vancouver and SJ are declining, and the Coyotes are terrible. Edmonton will be better, but I don't think they'll be good enough to be close to the playoffs, although they'll likely be in the 10ish range

[dying4acup]

I vote yes, because it's the Flames and I have to.

Division record won't be as good, and Treliving will make at least one unpopular trade of a veteran (Hudler/Wideman). Flames also won't win as many after trailing after 40.

Flames will be better vs the east, young ones will develop, and they won't be behind as often as we are used to. Also Faceoffs, possession will be better. Specifically Monahan.

Deciding factor for me will be the division sucking again. Kings will be better (enough for playoffs), but canucks and sharks will drop. Sharks will start hot, then fade. Canucks will not trade a goalie in the offseason, see Markstrom dominate in preseason, and have a 3 goalie controversy to open the season. They will get no scoring and their d will be terrible, with only goaltending keeping them in it.

In the end, Ducks, Kings, Flames make divisional playoffs. Oilers improve by 10 points and chiarelli is pushed for GM of the year, mcjesus for Calder and Eberle for byng. Canucks beat aves, wild and jets for last wildcard.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Yes.

Considering we are in the easiest division, the only lock for a playoff spot is Anaheim.

I fully expect AZ and Edmonton to still be the worst, so that means Calgary, LA, San Jose and Vancouver would be competing for 2 spots (assuming the Central takes 5 spots again).

Vancouver and San Jose are the teams I pick to be out.

[1qqaaz]

Since it's so far before next season, there are a lot of ifs and buts.
Honestly, I see the Flames' chances at slightly below 50%.

The D-core is simply too old. Brodie is the only pre-apex player on D, and even he will be 25. Everyone else (except maybe Russell) has a good chance of regressing. The age of the players on defense is quite a predicament. Wideman does not deserve to be demoted to the 5/6 spot, yet the top 4 are too old to allow the Flames to improve. By the middle of next season, the average age of the top 5 on Calgary will be 30.5 years old. When Gio's contract kicks in during the 16-17 season, Engelland will be 35 and will make almost 3 million, Wideman will be 34 making 5.25, and Gio will be 33 making around 7 million for many years. Brodie's contract will have kicked in, and Russell will probably have gotten a pretty big raise. 24-25 million spent on 5 defensemen who average 31.5 years old during the 16-17 season.

To summarize, the Flames' D core is too old and expensive to be sustainable, especially as a rebuilding team. Anaheim is consistently coming in first in the west with a very young d core. I think out of every "issue" within the organization, the age of the D core is the most pressing. However, if the Flames had had young and inexperienced on D this season, they probably wouldn't have made the playoffs.

Goal-tending for next year is still a huge question mark. I don't like our chances if we go with Ortio and Ramo (though I doubt this will happen).

I don't see the Flames signing any big free agents.

If the Flames do make the playoffs, I think it will be thanks to huge steps forwards from Johnny and Monny. Nearly all of Backlund, Colborne, Granlund, Shore, Ferland, Bouma, or Jooris will have to take a sizable jump forward.
If the D core can perform as well as they did year, I think the forward group may collectively improve enough to make the Flames edge out teams like San Jose, Vancouver, and Edmonton.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

The D-core is simply too old. Brodie is the only pre-apex player on D, and even he will be 25. Everyone else (except maybe Russell) has a good chance of regressing. The age of the players on defense is quite a predicament. Wideman does not deserve to be demoted to the 5/6 spot, yet the top 4 are too old to allow the Flames to improve. By the middle of next season, the average age of the top 5 on Calgary will be 30.5 years old.

The average age of the top-five defense core for the Chicago Blackhawks is 31.4 years old, and the youngest player in that group will be 28-years-old before the 2015 Stanley Cup is awarded.

The Flames defense core is absolutely not too old to compete.

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

When Gio's contract kicks in during the 16-17 season, Engelland will be 35 and will make almost 3 million, Wideman will be 34 making 5.25, and Gio will be 33 making around 7 million for many years. Brodie's contract will have kicked in, and Russell will probably have gotten a pretty big raise. 24-25 million spent on 5 defensemen who average 31.5 years old during the 16-17 season.

The question is about next season, not two years down the road.

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

To summarize, the Flames' D core is too old and expensive to be sustainable, especially as a rebuilding team. Anaheim is consistently coming in first in the west with a very young d core. I think out of every "issue" within the organization, the age of the D core is the most pressing. However, if the Flames had had young and inexperienced on D this season, they probably wouldn't have made the playoffs.

That's probably true, but it is not something that requires correction before puck drop in 2015. It is a process, and one I expect will occur with player turnover in the course of three years.

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Goal-tending for next year is still a huge question mark. I don't like our chances if we go with Ortio and Ramo (though I doubt this will happen).

I don't think goaltending for next season is as "huge" a question mark going into next season as it was for this year. I interpret from this that you see a drop off for next year. Please explain where that will occur. Otherwise, I think it is fair to anticipate that goaltending to be on par next year with this season, which is to say that we should expect it to be maybe just a little better than the League average. That is perfectly reasonable.

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

I don't see the Flames signing any big free agents.

The Flames are very well positioned heading into the summer to make some significant upgrades whether by way of FA acquisitions or by trade. They will probably not sign any "big" free agents, but I do think improvement can and possibly will occur with a savvy trade or two. Besides, these sorts of deals don't always have to be big to make a huge difference. Russell was acquired in a low interest trade-and-sign, and the signing of Derek Engelland was widely panned as a terrible deal. Both payed massive dividends this season.

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

If the Flames do make the playoffs, I think it will be thanks to huge steps forwards from Johnny and Monny. Nearly all of Backlund, Colborne, Granlund, Shore, Ferland, Bouma, or Jooris will have to take a sizable jump forward.
If the D core can perform as well as they did year, I think the forward group may collectively improve enough to make the Flames edge out teams like San Jose, Vancouver, and Edmonton.

"Edge out" Edmonton?! The Oilers will need to make a +25-point leap just to be in the conversation of top ten for next season. This will probably require a +70 improvement in their goal differential to do so. This IS NOT happening. You need to do a better job of sussing out your superficially arbitrary "slightly below 50%" figure.

No. For the Flames to make the playoffs they need to be a top three team in the Pacific: that is all. The Canucks are embarking on a precipitous decline. The Sharks are a gongshow. The Oilers and the Coyotes are nowhere near competing for the playoffs. As I see it, the Flames are a good bet to finish either 2 or 3 in the Pacific with the LA Kings. If they played in the Central Division, then I would say they are likely to be out. But within the current system, they look to me like a prohibitive favourite for a spot in their own Division.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

The Flames defense core is absolutely not too old to compete.

It's too old for a rebuild. It's too old for the idealistic improvement of multiple young defensemen. It's not too old to compete. The old defense is part of what allowed the Flames to compete this year. I just wish that someone young other than Brodie was developed. Luckily, Wootherspoon got some time in the playoffs. More prospects will be closer to taking spots next year. Even disregarding age, it is reasonable to assume that some of the defense will not play as well next year. Not all of the top 5 will match career years.

Originally Posted by Textcritic

The question is about next season, not two years down the road.

The urgent changes that pertain to next season also pertain to following seasons. However, the age problem will have greater magnitude as time passes.

Originally Posted by Textcritic

It is a process, and one I expect will occur with player turnover in the course of three years.

I agree, Brodie, Gio, and maybe Russell are more likely to stay. Anyone else has a realistic chance of being moved.

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I interpret from this that you see a drop off for next year. Please explain where that will occur.

I don't necessarily see a drop off (as long as Hiller stays). I just don't see it improving either. That being said, Jon Gillies looks very promising for down the road. The Flames are as set (long-term) in net as can be!

Originally Posted by Textcritic

The Flames are very well positioned heading into the summer to make some significant upgrades whether by way of FA acquisitions or by trade. They will probably not sign any "big" free agents, but I do think improvement can and possibly will occur with a savvy trade or two. Besides, these sorts of deals don't always have to be big to make a huge difference. Russell was acquired in a low interest trade-and-sign, and the signing of Derek Engelland was widely panned as a terrible deal. Both payed massive dividends this season.

This is true. I can see them upgrading on Byron with a solid FA or trade piece. If we could do another Russell-like trade, that would be great. The Flames probably still have the same proscouts, so I guess it could happen. But I think the Engelland signing still looks pretty bad. He was pretty ineffective for the majority of the season. When the top pairing is Brodie and Gio again, he'll probably be the same or worse than he was for most of this season. The cap or term is not terrible though, and he definitely has value in injury situations. Someone will definitely pass him on the depth chart within the next two years, and he will no longer have the same value in injury situations.

Originally Posted by Textcritic

You need to do a better job of sussing out your superficially arbitrary "slightly below 50%" figure.

Here was my logic:
Anaheim has a 100% chance.
One of San Jose or LA, probably LA, will make it.
The central will get both wild cards spots.
Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, and Arizona fight over the last spot.
Does Calgary have a higher chance than all 3 of those teams combined? I think it's pretty close. Vancouver gives the bulk of their collective chance, although I agree that the Flames will probably be better than them. Every year, at least one team drastically improves, and it might be Edmonton next year. Lets say they sign Mike Green. McDavid + Green + Chiarelli could make more of a difference than Boychuk+Leddy+Halak or Ribero+Forsberg+Neal+Laviolette. Though chances are, they will still suck. Hopefully we "edge them out" by doubling them in points. Arizona has basically no chance.

But I guess you've convinced me. The possibility of having a good Russell/Hudler/Wideman-like free agent signing is possible (especially with all the 2nd and 3rd round picks). I am also probably overestimating Edmonton. Change my 48% to 52%. Guess that's why they call you textcritic!

[Textcritic]

I think that you and I generally agree about the current state of the Flames defense, and the need to make significant changes down the road. I tend to think that the timetable for these changes is not as urgent as you have implied, and the current defense core is presently nowhere approaching what I would classify as "old"; again, they will still be younger than the group that just won the WC. The age of the Flames defense by this time next season is pretty average, but by the time they will find themselves in a position to be starting to challenge for Stanley Cups, the defense core will need an overhaul.

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Here was my logic:
Anaheim has a 100% chance.
One of San Jose or LA, probably LA, will make it.

I agree about Anaheim, but I do not think SJ will make it—not by a long shot. They showed NOTHING this season to suggest that they are a better team than any of those that finished ahead of them. They are suffering well documented locker room issues. Two of their best players are on the wrong side of 35; both control their own destiny and have shown absolutely no interest in leaving. Their goaltending is potentially a problem, and their defense is not exactly impressive. I would be more optimistic about the Canucks chances for a playoff berth next season than I would the Sharks, and this is in light of the fact that they are also declining rapidly.

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

The central will get both wild cards spots.
Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, and Arizona fight over the last spot.
Does Calgary have a higher chance than all 3 of those teams combined? I think it's pretty close. Vancouver gives the bulk of their collective chance, although I agree that the Flames will probably be better than them.

You are right about the wildcard, but I think you are underselling how much better the Flames are than all of these teams, including SJ. The Canucks qualified for the post season this year because they implemented a plan to carefully manage the Sedins' ice time. The core of the whole team is old, and every one of the Sedins, Burrows, Vrbata, Hamhuis and Bieksa looked worse in the playoffs than they did in November; all of them are most likely to take another step back next year, and it is one that is too great for their younger group of players to overcome.

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Every year, at least one team drastically improves, and it might be Edmonton next year. Lets say they sign Mike Green. McDavid + Green + Chiarelli could make more of a difference than Boychuk+Leddy+Halak or Ribero+Forsberg+Neal+Laviolette...

The NYI improved by 22 points and + 60 goals in the demonstrably less competitive Eastern Conference.
The Predators improved by 16 points and + 50 goals. By that same measure the Oilers should project to land in exactly the same spot in the standings next season, but with more wins and points.

I think it is likely that Edmonton improves, but you are not alone in underestimating just how much they would have to improve for it to have an impact on their place in the standings. The gap is ENORMOUS. I think that if the Oilers happen to finish 12th next season, this should be considered a tremendous success. But they will require a miracle to get within sniffing distance of the playoffs.

[Displaced Flames fan]

3 words. Culture has changed.

[heep223]

1 word. Look out.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think it is likely that Edmonton improves, but you are not alone in underestimating just how much they would have to improve for it to have an impact on their place in the standings. The gap is ENORMOUS. I think that if the Oilers happen to finish 12th next season, this should be considered a tremendous success. But they will require a miracle to get within sniffing distance of the playoffs.

This exactly. The Oilers finished 27 points behind the 12th-place Sharks. If they improve by 20 points next season, they could still finish 13th in the West. With 82 points, they might sneak into 12th or even 11th, depending on which teams they take the wins away from. But they're not any threat to make the playoffs until they completely rebuild their defence corps, which almost certainly will not happen between now and October.

By the way, I would guess that the Flames' record won't change much next year. However, the threshold required to make the playoffs will be a bit lower, because there won't be five teams giving away free points in a desperate attempt to tank for McDavid.

[Fleury’sOTGoalCelebration]

Yes... Because I believe in Bob

[Sylvanfan]

Being in the Pacific is a big advantage. San Jose might have one last stand. Similar with the Canucks having a couple final goes at the playoffs. The Flames could very well be a better team next year in terms of analytics and finish with 94 points and outside the playoffs. I think a lot of 28+ guys had career years which had a big impact. I think that won't repeat and that will keep the Flames outside of the playoffs. But still lots to be excited about, I think they'll be in the mix all year long.

[Glo Boyz]

I say we get 3rd in the Pacific again.

[Fleury2005]

You can bet the Flames will make the playoffs next year and get +175 odds right now. That seems crazy. All their best players were young and should improve and they have cap space to add a piece or two. And Gio will be back. Is Vegas crazy? Did they really over-achieve by that much this year?

According to Vegas the Oilers and Leafs are both more likely to make the playoffs (+125 and +115). What???

[polak]

Yes because I think our young players improve unlike all of the skeptics.

That combined with the fact that you could easily put the Flames 2nd in the division, simply cause our division is weak leads me to being fairly confident.

[SofaProfessor]

The more and more I think about it the more I like their chances. The Flames and Oilers are the only teams in the division that are almost guaranteed to improve from this last season (how much remains to be seen). Anaheim will probably be more of the same. No better, no worse. I see LA and Vancouver on the decline. Even if the Flames only improve by one small baby step from last season then I see them in the playoffs.

[sa226]

It swings wildly for me both ways. On one hand I think they will be in tough. Mainly due to the competition. I firmly believe and expect that the team as a whole will be much better next year. Individuals may take a step back, but the team should be better. It's the LA.'s San Jose's and others that worry me.

Then on the other hand you have Haynes writing about the similarities between the Lightning 2 years ago and the Flames this year.

It going to be a whole lot of fun either way.

[slybomb]

I just have to say yes. Everytime someone said "NO", they were proved wrong by the Flames.