PREDICTIONS: 2015 Provincial Elections

[sworkhard]

Originally Posted by Slava

Is it though? I mean I get with a single policy or single government where you have a group of criminals (Devine in Saskatchewan kind of thing). But when I look at the NDP I don't see successful governments in prosperous provinces? That continued mediocrity or worse makes me think its policy related and not just a single occurrence?

Saskatchewan was held back by red tape and a lack of developed oil infrastructure more than anything else. Other than that, IMO, the NDP did a pretty good job living within their means there. Their record in Saskatchewan is a positive more than a negative IMO. When the Saskatchewan party came in and cut the red tape, combined with the Stelmach royalty rate increases in Alberta, investment there finally took off. If anything, this shows that while they may not have made the necessary decisions to start taking advantage of their resources, they left the province set up for success when the next government finally made some necessary changes. Ontario, IMO, is a prime case of a NDP failure if your looking for one.

However, despite having the same names, the Alberta NDP reflects the ideals of Albertan's far more than the parties of the same name in other provinces. At this point I'm not worried about the NDP causing long term economic harm, at least not in the next 4 years. If they win a majority, I'll evaluate their performance in 2019, and if it's mediocre given the circumstances, I'll switch my vote to a more economically conservative party not called the Wild Rose (unless they change their education policy) at that time.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Slava

Is it though? I mean I get with a single policy or single government where you have a group of criminals (Devine in Saskatchewan kind of thing). But when I look at the NDP I don't see successful governments in prosperous provinces? That continued mediocrity or worse makes me think its policy related and not just a single occurrence?

If you look at Alberta's governments you had 2 good Klein governments that fixed problems created by the previous bad PC governments. Then you had an average to bad Klein government (Ralph bucks), a bad Stelmech government, a bad Redford government.

So in my politically knowlegable lifetime you had two good PC terms in office, 1 average, and 2 bad. So that's batting 50%. And that's not counting the PC governments pre-Klein that drove this province toward bankruptcy.

So how many of the years of Tory rule would you call good governance?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by GGG

If you look at Alberta's governments you had 2 good Klein governments that fixed problems created by the previous bad PC governments. Then you had an average to bad Klein government (Ralph bucks), a bad Stelmech government, a bad Redford government.

So in my politically knowlegable lifetime you had two good PC terms in office, 1 average, and 2 bad. So that's batting 50%. And that's not counting the PC governments pre-Klein that drove this province toward bankruptcy.

So how many of the years of Tory rule would you call good governance?

I didn't support the Tories either though. Really, we should have this discussion in the other thread, but because the Tories were bad we should voite NDP here who have been bad elsewhere? That's a tough one to convince me of. I see why you don't want to bring other provinces into the discussion, and largely its because it looks terrible for the NDP when you do.

[OBCT]

NDP: 37
WRP: 23
PC: 23
LIB: 3
AP: 1


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[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Slava

I didn't support the Tories either though. Really, we should have this discussion in the other thread, but because the Tories were bad we should voite NDP here who have been bad elsewhere? That's a tough one to convince me of. I see why you don't want to bring other provinces into the discussion, and largely its because it looks terrible for the NDP when you do.

Again though, you have had terrible Tory governments in Ontario and Alberta, a mediocre to poor Liberal (which is a right-wing or centre-right government) in B.C., and countless other examples across other provinces. It's a silly and lazy exercise engaged in by those who don't want to do the legwork to get informed on the actual policies being proposed in the current election cycle.

[foshizzle11]

Originally Posted by OBCT

NDP: 37
WRP: 23
PC: 23
LIB: 3
AP: 1

I think the vote will be more along these lines and I believe we will see a minority government. No way I see a whole party walk across the floor (ie WR crossing to PC to form a majority). If that happens, NDP will get a majority at the next election.

Seems like more people want accountability and transparency from the next government. Apparently this type of tactic won't be viewed well by Alberta voters and I tend to agree.

All the statistics are very interesting, thank you all for posting.

[MoneyGuy]

NDP: 36
PC: 24
WRP: 23
Lib: 3
AP: 1

[Bunk]

Gonna change my prediction to an NDP majority.

One thing Alberta has never done is elect a minority government - if it goes for a change it really goes for it.

NDP 48
Wildrose 25
PC 12
LIB 1
AP 1

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

My prediction is:

NDP: 49
WRP: 25
PC: 10
ALP: 2
AP: 1

[FlamesAddiction]

When was the last time that Alberta had anything but some type of conservative government?

I will be shocked if one of the PCs or WR do not win.

Also, I haven't followed the provincial politics of Alberta for quite some time, but what is it about the provincial Liberal Party that people are afraid of that the NDP isn't likely to implement on an even more severe level?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Final Prediction

NDP 39
PC 23
WR 21
LIB 3
AP 1

Prentice resigns, Rick Hanson is the next PC leader.

[Nehkara]

Final prediction:

NDP: 52
WR: 19
PC: 14
LIB: 1
AP: 1

[gpflamesfan]

My projection:

WR: 38
NDP: 27
PC: 21
AP: 1


It looks like I'm alone in this but I think when the dust settles, after a number of tight races, we will see the Wildrose form a minority government.

[Slava]

I'm predicting:

NDP : 40
PC's: 19
Wildrose: 24
Liberals : 3
Alberta Party : 1

[crazy_eoj]

Late prediction:

PC: 32
ND: 34
WR: 18
LIB: 2
AB: 1

[octothorp]

My prediction now is:
NDP: 41
WRP: 33
PC: 10
LIB: 2
AP: 1

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Final Prediction


Prentice resigns, Rick McIver is the next PC leader.

Fixed!

[edslunch]

Ndp 38
pc 24
wr 21
lib 3
ap 1

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

Final prediction:

NDP: 52
WR: 19
PC: 14
LIB: 1
AP: 1

Nehkara's final prediction wins the contest as the closest to actual results. Bunk and Iowa_Flames_Fan split the second closest predictions. In fairness, all three predictions have been revised quite late, but still count, so you guys have the bragging rights.