[GDT] Flames @ Oilers, 8 pm, CBC

[StrykerSteve]

Originally Posted by Mony

In other news on the OOT side, we might see a motivated Vancouver team this afternoon because they could clinch tonight.

Makes me puke cheering for them but it's for the good of us!!!!

Canucks fans on Twitter are debating the merits of throwing today's game to make it tougher for LA to make the playoffs.

[malcolmk14]

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

Canucks fans on Twitter are debating the merits of throwing today's game to make it tougher for LA to make the playoffs.

If they had 2 more points, maybe. But sitting at 95 they can't afford to throw games.

[BigBCalgary]

All I know is... Every single Oilers fan I know, is praying that the Oilers beat the Flames

tonight and possibly help knock them out of the playoffs and that they draft McDavid.

God I hope this doesn't happen... Go Flames Go!!!

[malcolmk14]

Canucks losses to Winnipeg and Los Angeles could have them out of the playoff picture by Tuesday night. No way they throw a game at this point.

[Locke]

Why do they keep calling up Wotherspoon?

[AC]

I'm going to the game, row 3 behind / to the left of the Calgary net.

[pylon]

Bottom line.

They need to come into this game and absolutely humiliate the Oilers. Dominate from the opening face off and score 15 if they have to. Sportsmanship be damned. Not to embarrass the Oilers, but to prove they truly are committed to this. They have to capitalize on the low hanging fruit, and make a statement.

By no means am I saying the Oilers are that bad, it is just that this game is that damn important. This game, and the game against the Coyotes, in my eyes are more important than the last 2 against the Kings and Jets. Win these two, and you can likely get away with a couple OTL's or even a single point out of the last 2 given where we sit with the tie breaker.

I have to admit, I am nervous for this one. I have a feeling the tank is being put on hold tonight, as it looks like the McDavid standing are pretty much clinched for all parties and we are going to see a very motivated Oilers team, for once this season. This is probably the only meaningful game they have played in 4 years.... which is hilarious and sad at the same time.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Mike F

Has anyone seen any retrospective analysis determining whether the odds this site gives actually turn out to be accurate?

The way they fluctuate based on single results, my gut tells me they're somewhere between unreliable and (mathematically) baseless

Its a Monte Carlo simulation. Basically they just simulate the season a bunch of times and get the odds that a team makes the playoffs.

When you are dealing with such few games left its not a shock about they swing a ton at this point.

[getoverit]

Great question, man they must not like his game sure has to be frustrating for the guy wanting to break into the nhl.

Originally Posted by Locke

Why do they keep calling up Wotherspoon?

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Mike F

And my question being: If a team goes from 80% to 60% in one game, how accurate was that 80%?

Is it the 80% that bothers you, or the large fluctuation? The Flames have 4 games left. If they win out, they're 100% in. If they lose out, they're close to 0%. So... 4 games, range of 0-100%... your gut thinks a 20% swing is too much?

I think the swing is in line with statistical expectations. But, regardless, what about the 80%? The size of the swing your question on its accuracy still remains. However, since the size of the swing seems fine to me, I'll guess they're doing okay. The math they use is there on their site for you to see. How accurate? Not sure, it might have a reasonable margin for error. But at least it's fun and something to watch.

[ssjshmo]

To those wondering about morning skate.

@Fan960Wills: “@_Jay_Em_: @Fan960Wills Hey Derek, do you know when the #Flames morning skate is this am?” 11:30.

[Gaskal]

T minus 25 minutes to Bennett's linemate reveal

[Locke]

Originally Posted by pylon

Bottom line.

They need to come into this game and absolutely humiliate the Oilers. Dominate from the opening face off and score 15 if they have to. Sportsmanship be damned. Not to embarrass the Oilers, but to prove they truly are committed to this. They have to capitalize on the low hanging fruit, and make a statement.

By no means am I saying the Oilers are that bad, it is just that this game is that damn important. This game, and the game against the Coyotes, in my eyes are more important than the last 2 against the Kings and Jets. Win these two, and you can likely get away with a couple OTL's or even a single point out of the last 2 given where we sit with the tie breaker.

I have to admit, I am nervous for this one. I have a feeling the tank is being put on hold tonight, as it looks like the McDavid standing are pretty much clinched for all parties and we are going to see a very motivated Oilers team, for once this season. This is probably the only meaningful game they have played in 4 years.... which is hilarious and sad at the same time.

No, the Oilers are that bad. Its the difference motivation makes. They've got nothing to lose, so they could fold like a cheap tent or they could be very hard to beat.

I'm really nervous for this one.

[colbym72]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Its a Monte Carlo simulation. Basically they just simulate the season a bunch of times and get the odds that a team makes the playoffs.

When you are dealing with such few games left its not a shock about they swing a ton at this point.

Exactly. The reason its so high right now is because probability says we should win these next 2. If we suddenly don't, that changes everything

[pylon]

Originally Posted by Locke

No, the Oilers are that bad. Its the difference motivation makes. They've got nothing to lose, so they could fold like a cheap tent or they could be very hard to beat.

I'm really nervous for this one.

I know, I know.....

I just don't want to sound too cocky. I think it's more after the emotional roller coaster this season, I think I sometimes wonder if we are really 'that good'. A few silly bounces the other way, (eg the Brodie OT goal against the Bruins) and we are out of the picture.

But they by some miracle are in the picture, and they have to make a statement tonight they really deserve to be there.

[TBone290]

Time to kick some Edmonton butt. Go Flames Go

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Mike F

Has anyone seen any retrospective analysis determining whether the odds this site gives actually turn out to be accurate?

The way they fluctuate based on single results, my gut tells me they're somewhere between unreliable and (mathematically) baseless

Actually, by far, the most mathematically sound.

Instead of predicting, based on models and past events, they run monte carlo simulations of the remaining games.

If you are unfamiliar with those, they simply run future scenarios over and over (millions of times in this case).

There are only so many possible outcomes for any given game. The simulations tally up results of each iteration and the results are counted.

So if the simulation runs one million times, trying different outcomes for each game, and the total number of times that the Flames end up making the playoffs is 800,000, there would be an 80% chance that they make the playoffs. Put another way, based on all the possible ways that the games play out, in 80% of those possible ways or scenarios, the Flames make the playoffs.

No biases. No assuming that a model represents reality in any way, or correlates to anything. Just run outcomes and add them up.

The site does this two ways: random (50-50 chance of any team winning a particular game); and weighted (based on home and away records, etc)

The reason that the odds are swinging wildly now is that there are only a few games left. In order for the Flames to makes the playoffs, the more they win the better. If they win tonight, the odds then include only the scenarios whereby tonight was given a win. If they lose tonight, the odds change to only the scenarios where tonight was given a loss.

Early in the season, if you lose a game, there are still dozens of games to make it up. So odds change only fractionally. But now if you lose, there are only 3 more games to make it up. So the outcome makes a huge difference.

Once it gets down to the last game, the odds include only that game. Imagine a scenario where if you win, you're in and if you lose you're out. That game would have a swing of 100%: up to 100% with a win and down to 0% with a loss.

We are getting closer and closer to that scenario, making each game hugely significant to the final outcome.

[Gaskal]

8-1 Flames.

[colbym72]

As much fun as it is for the first line to rack up the points (and I hope they continue to do so), I would love these next couple games to be slump busters for some of our bottom 9 forwards.

[Mike F]

Originally Posted by the2bears

Is it the 80% that bothers you, or the large fluctuation? ....

How accurate? Not sure...

The only thing that "bothers" me is not knowing whether the % they give is reliable or not. People have started throwing their odds around a lot, and I simply want to know how much that number can actually be relied on.