[News] Sens, Flames trying to 'outrun probability': Stinson

[theoforever]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Chicago, Nashville and the Islanders lead the league in shot attempts. And they win lots.

When you get down to it, the Flames and Oilers are extremes on the same scale. Edmonton took lots of shots, but a lack of talent hampers them. Calgary doesn't take many, but we have ridiculous things happening like Lance Bouma scoring 16 and Josh Jooris 12, on top of our skill guys easily exceeding previous career highs.

So why does it work this year where it didn't last year?

Our shooting success is almost certain to regress next year. Hopefully another year of experience and growth will allow it to be smoothed out by possessing the puck more often.

I would say from Van game on, it worked well.

Monahan is much, much better, Johnny replaced Cammi easily, Bauma hitting his prime, improved 3rd and 4th line. Young players hungry coming in and good for short stretches. Wideman having a great year, continued improvement of Rusell, Brodie stepping up, Giordano's Noris like 61 games, better goaltending, and another 20 or so little stories why we are winning.

If something is done over and over and works then it isn't luck.

As for Oilers love to hear lack of talent in reference to the Oil as opposed to Flames. Kind of funny....

What makes the Flames different from oil and there is the usual, heart, determination, coaching etc., but what really makes us different is that our d-men can move the puck and join the rush. Skill on backend of our top 4 guys is excellent.

Had we gone the big, tough pylon way on the back end this team would be a disaster.

As is, it has been a great year. A few years ago nobody would be bringing up the corsi stuff over and over and we could all just enjoy the story of a little team with heart.

Of course it is 2015 and the analytic community for the first time is being somewhat respected, they have hit the primetime.

Flame success goes against their numbers and thus threatens the newly found respectability and therefore, Flames have to be "destroyed and stopped".
If the analytics guys were less insecure, they wouldn't be crying about Flames success.

BTW, statistics exist so we can quantify the highs and lows and find the middle and deviation, but without those highs and lows there would be no need for statistics, all in all we don't need statistics to enjoy hockey, so who cares about analytics.

[FlamesAllTheWay]

Originally Posted by article

If the Flames are unable to eke out the required points to make the post-season, it won’t be a case of them losing their heart or finding their supply of grit tragically exhausted...

Agree with that. I think we've given it our all over pretty much the entire season to date.

Originally Posted by article

If the Flames are unable to eke out the required points to make the post-season [it will simply be] a case of their season-long high-wire act catching up to them.

Disagree with this. Perhaps it plays a part but to me if we miss the playoffs it will have boiled down to 2 main things:

1) Other teams picking it up in the 2nd half - To varying degrees the Kings, Wild and Jets all took a bit of a nap to start the season. Whereas the Flames seemed to be playing at a consistently high level the entire time. Once these other teams finally woke up and played at the level everyone was expecting (less so the Jets I suppose) things really tightened up.

2) 8 games without a single point - Even 1 or 2 pts during this stretch would have made a big difference, as we're seeing now.

Again, defying the odds may play a part and I'm not going to write the article off entirely. I think the Flames would be hard pressed to duplicate the amount of comebacks, OT/shootout wins, etc, that they've managed this season.

But to say if we miss the playoffs it will have "[simply been a] case of their season-long high-wire act catching up to them" is false, IMO.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Personally, I have never agreed with the "well, we have a high shooting percentage because we only shoot in high chance areas" argument.

That statement implies that Hartley has discovered something no other coach has thought of before. And I don't believe that for one second. We are bucking expectations, plain and simple.

A lot of people have thought this though? Some players prefer to take shots with high scoring chances or do something else with the puck. Tanguay would be a prime example of this. Unless he thinks he has a good chance of scoring, he's not shooting. It's reflected in his ~20% career shooting percentage.

On the other end of the spectrum, some players are fine with taking shots from anywhere. They have their preferences but will shoot the puck rather than try and make that low percentage play. Iginla would be good examples as he never shied away from shooting. His career shooting percentage of ~13% once again reflect this.

Coaches have their own preferences as well. We've seen it especially with PP's where it was clearly a mandate to just shoot the puck at any opportunity and have someone there for the rebound/deflection, we've seen the opposite where it was okay to cycle and pass the puck for 20+ seconds waiting for that scoring chance. They are different strategies, not necessarily better strategies.

While not 100% accurate, these charts compares Monahan (29-28-57) to his closest statistical comparison, Vrbata (30-28-58). Vrbata has 12% shooting and Monahan has 16%. Vrbata has 65 more shots. Should he have scored more goals though?
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/ic...&r2strength=#5
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/ic...=1&r1strength=

Monahan takes more shots from in front of the net and high success places. Vrbata's shots are more evenly distributed across the zone. When you look at the shot location graphs it's not hard to tell which player is likelier to have the higher shooting percentage.

If/when Monahan's shooting percentage goes down, it wont be because of bad luck (or lack of good luck). It will be teams learning not to leave him unchecked in front of the net, forcing him to take more perimeter shots.

[Red]

Why are they just talking about the Flames? Aren't the Habs also poor in these stats?
Isn't that a more significant story or would you have to be clinically insane to suggest that a team can win the President's trophy by fluke and luck?
Also, how good would the Flames be with Price in net?

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Displaced Flames fan

How do you know those are ridiculous things? Those could be the norm for these players. I certainly haven't seen anything to suggest that either of them are flukes.

Bouma scored 14 as an overager in Vancouver, and he pulled off 12 in his first pro season in Abbotsford. Then he scored 10 total in his next 165 games between Abby and Calgary.

16 goals clearly is not the norm for Bouma. At least not yet. And while it is possible that he has taken a quantum leap this year - and we all hope that is the case - you can't tell me you expected him to do that this year. Nor can you tell me you expected a guy signed to fill a role in the AHL would come up and notch a dozen goals.

We have the shooting percentage we do because we hit on one of those rare freak occurrances where everyone hits a career season at the same time. Some of that is due to strategy and system, but a lot of it is a freak of nature. And inevitably, some of these guys will regress next year, even as others continue to take steps forward.

[Coach]

If the Flames miss the playoffs, the single biggest factor is the loss of Giordano. No way to replace him and was the best defenseman (possibly overall player) in the league before hi injury.

Just no way to make that up.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by MattyC

If the Flames miss the playoffs, the single biggest factor is the loss of Giordano. No way to replace him and was the best defenseman (possibly overall player) in the league before hi injury.

Just no way to make that up.

Not just because we lost Gio. The good points raised about the ability of our defence to activate and transition to offence is one of the biggest reasons why we were able to defy expectations. But losing Gio has also crippled Brodie as an offensive threat because he is now having to carry Engelland in a shut down defensive role. The echos of Gio's injury are far reaching.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Bouma scored 14 as an overager in Vancouver, and he pulled off 12 in his first pro season in Abbotsford. Then he scored 10 total in his next 165 games between Abby and Calgary.

16 goals clearly is not the norm for Bouma. At least not yet. And while it is possible that he has taken a quantum leap this year - and we all hope that is the case - you can't tell me you expected him to do that this year. Nor can you tell me you expected a guy signed to fill a role in the AHL would come up and notch a dozen goals.

We have the shooting percentage we do because we hit on one of those rare freak occurrances where everyone hits a career season at the same time. Some of that is due to strategy and system, but a lot of it is a freak of nature. And inevitably, some of these guys will regress next year, even as others continue to take steps forward.

I love the Bouma argument. Yes, his extra 5 goals are what pushed the Flames up in the standings.
Been reading too much of the ###### on Oilers HF?
First, Bouma was not an overager.
Plus any slug can pop 10-12 goals in a season where they play on a scoring line. If he reverts back to 10G it will be becasue he is back on the third/fourth line. He is replacing Glencross and he hasn't totally dissapointed. But it's not like he is scoring 30G either.

[Enoch Root]

I am also getting tired of the 'half the Flames are having career years' argument.

Hudler - definitely
Russell - yes, but also is getting the opportunity for the first time
Wideman - yup

Giordano - continuation of what we saw last year
Colborne - continuation from last season
Backlund - continuation from last season

Stajan - nope
Raymond - nope
Byron - nope
Jones - nope
Glencross - nope
Engelland, Smid, Setoguchi - nope

Brodie - yes, but he is 24 years old and has progressed every year
Bouma - see Brodie

Gaudreau - rookie
Monahan - 20 years old
Jooris - more than anyone expected, certainly

So someone please explain to me how we are being carried by career years, other than Hudler and Wideman?

What the Flames are is a team with a bunch of young guys that are getting better, and a few vets that are making big contributions.

Who isn't going to be as good next year?

Hudler?
Wideman?
Jooris?

Add :
Bennett
Wotherspoon and/or Morrison
progression from Ferland, Shore, Granlund and/or Poirier
maybe better goaltending
maybe a UFA or two

[DoubleF]

edit: Wrong thread

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Not just because we lost Gio. The good points raised about the ability of our defence to activate and transition to offence is one of the biggest reasons why we were able to defy expectations. But losing Gio has also crippled Brodie as an offensive threat because he is now having to carry Engelland in a shut down defensive role. The echos of Gio's injury are far reaching.

Yeah that's what I mean. Giordano was the one player who literally touched every part of the game and team. Not just his icetime and point production is lost. His presence on the bench is gone and in the room (whether he's there or not) is different. Other players have to pick up the slack. And yeah Brodie has dropped off pretty hard after a first stint of solid play.

Either way, the statistical anomalies are a variety of things, each playing into it in it's own way. But I think that the fact that we lost Giordano, right before the most important stretch of the season, will be the largest factor in why we miss (if we do).

Boblieve.

[Dr. Doom]

Who cares what these jobbers think.

It's fun to watch as a fan.

Want to underdog us? It will only help them to continue to catch off guard.

[troutman]

While useful, "shots directed at net" would not seem as illuminating to me as comparing scoring chances. I don't know if there is enough data to do that kind of report.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Bouma scored 14 as an overager in Vancouver, and he pulled off 12 in his first pro season in Abbotsford. Then he scored 10 total in his next 165 games between Abby and Calgary.

16 goals clearly is not the norm for Bouma. At least not yet. And while it is possible that he has taken a quantum leap this year - and we all hope that is the case - you can't tell me you expected him to do that this year. Nor can you tell me you expected a guy signed to fill a role in the AHL would come up and notch a dozen goals.

We have the shooting percentage we do because we hit on one of those rare freak occurrances where everyone hits a career season at the same time. Some of that is due to strategy and system, but a lot of it is a freak of nature. And inevitably, some of these guys will regress next year, even as others continue to take steps forward.

Don't forget, Bouma worked incredibly hard in the off-season on his skill-game to become a regular in the NHL. It's not out of the realm of possibility that he's just a much better and more complete player now.

http://www.calgarysun.com/2014/08/27...-one-year-deal

His off-season training in the Vancouver area has included sessions with skills coach Tim Turk, who has previously worked with the Montreal Canadiens and comes recommended by Habs sparkplug Brendan Gallagher.

“Around the net, I think I had chances last year where I felt like I could have scored more goals, so, for me, it was important to get on the ice and work with somebody on my shot and on my puck skills,” Bouma explained. “I got a lot of pointers from him, and I think it helped a lot. It gave me a little more confidence around the net, and I’m looking forward to using that.”

And certainly, management sees that he had more offensive potential too.

Bouma likely isn’t going to be toe-dragging around defencemen or filling YouTube with top-shelf snipes, but Treliving sees potential for a bump in point production from the hard-nosed, hard-working forward who was used at both centre and left wing in a checking role last winter.

“There’s certain guys that have that God-given ability, and Lance would probably be the first one to tell you that, even over his career, he hasn’t been a natural goal-scorer,” Treliving said of Bouma, who has a half-dozen tallies and 13 assists in 121 NHL games.

“But I think there’s more there because of the way he plays the game. He’s fearless. He goes to the net. He’ll get into traffic. That, in itself, puts you in position to score more because you’re around where the goals are being scored. Whether that’s jamming a few more in, getting in a position for rebound shots, tip opportunities … You need to be around the areas where goals are being scored, and he’s shown that he’s a fearless competitor that way.

“So yeah, I think there is more there offensively. As we go into the year, the challenge for all of us is we’re going to have to find a way, via committee, to contribute more offence.”

I'm genuinely surprised that the work paid off so quickly, but maybe I shouldn't be since the kid is such a gamer. Maybe you shouldn't be so surprised either?

[PeteMoss]

Coaching shooting percentage would be interesting. Has that ever been done?

I doubt it really means a ton... but the Leafs shooting percentage has collapsed since Carlyle went out... pretty sure the Devils shooting percentage is up since Deboer was canned.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Bouma scored 14 as an overager in Vancouver, and he pulled off 12 in his first pro season in Abbotsford. Then he scored 10 total in his next 165 games between Abby and Calgary.

16 goals clearly is not the norm for Bouma. At least not yet. And while it is possible that he has taken a quantum leap this year - and we all hope that is the case - you can't tell me you expected him to do that this year. Nor can you tell me you expected a guy signed to fill a role in the AHL would come up and notch a dozen goals.

We have the shooting percentage we do because we hit on one of those rare freak occurrances where everyone hits a career season at the same time. Some of that is due to strategy and system, but a lot of it is a freak of nature. And inevitably, some of these guys will regress next year, even as others continue to take steps forward.

We don't know yet what the norm is for Bouma. I read he spent the summer practicing his skills with a skills coach. His 16 goals are a result of this extra work.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/sports/...021/story.html

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Red

I love the Bouma argument. Yes, his extra 5 goals are what pushed the Flames up in the standings.

If you lack the wit and intelligence to capably respond to what I did say, do not waste your time and mine by inventing arguments I did not make and challenging those.

[cannon7]

Lets be honest, none of us expected the Flames to be here last summer. But even so, having watched the 76 games since then it makes perfect sense as to why we are here. And it has little to do with luck. You actually have to watch the games -- go figure.

And for those of us watching, the Flames have been arguably the most entertaining team to watch in the entire league. And the most exciting edition of the Flames that I've seen since the late 80s.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

I'm genuinely surprised that the work paid off so quickly, but maybe I shouldn't be since the kid is such a gamer. Maybe you shouldn't be so surprised either?

I would be extremely surprised if Bouma becomes a consistent 15-20 goal scorer. And extremely happy. Guys taking those quantum leaps are what creates championship calibre teams.

But I also want to see it happen more than once. And if nothing else, Bouma has certainly earned the opportunity to play in more offensive roles going forward.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Lets be honest, none of us expected the Flames to be here last summer. But even so, having watched the 76 games since then it makes perfect sense as to why we are here. And it has little to do with luck. You actually have to watch the games -- go figure.

And for those of us watching, the Flames have been arguably the most entertaining team to watch in the entire league. And the most exciting edition of the Flames that I've seen since the late 80s.

Listening to most of the guys on TSN radio here in Montreal, they basically have the consensus that outside of the home team, the one team to watch this year is the Flames. They complain daily about now having to stay up late to watch them play.

FWIW, Flames can maintain the same scoring rate with a league average shooting percentage by taking 5 more shots per game.
Not sure 'possession' will improve quite that much by next year, but increasing shots is the easy answer to a drop in shooting % from this point on.