[CP Story] Calgarypuck Schedule Analyzer (Updated)

[Rjcsjc62]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Sportsclubstats have Minnesota and Calgary at virtually the same odds of making the playoffs now. Since Minnesota is 2 points ahead of the Flames (same number of games played), it sounds like the tough schedule should only cost Minnesota an average of 2 points over the last 15 games.

Wondering if the strength of schedule card is played too much, considering that analysis. Or I guess the flip side is that sportsclubstats is not factoring in schedule enough (i.e., the weighting is not enough when matching up teams).

Personally, I think strength of schedule is extremely important though. Just interesting to see the contradicting evidence.

I noticed the same thing, but I assumed that the Flames having the same odds as Minnesota despite being two points behind, had more to do with the fact that the Flames have an extra playoff spot available to them.

[Robbob]

The key is not to play down to your opponent. Can't go into any game thinking it will be easy.

[Bingo]

March 16th update

13 games to go and the Flames have the 24th toughest schedule which includes 6 road games against teams with an average home win % of .591, and 7 home games against teams with an average road win % of only .467. The Flames have the easiest home schedule in the league

Vancouver in a similar spot

Winnipeg and Minnesota have killer schedules.

Arizona has the 17th toughest schedule to Edmonton's 23rd.

[Bingo]

Interesting update.

The Flames are the 26th toughest, with only Colorado having a more favourable schedule. The Canucks now 21st.

Minnesota (1) and Winnipeg (3) still have the worst, but the big change is LA has now moved into the top ten at 7.

I still see things as good in the hood for the Flames if they find 13 or 14 points.

[Bingo]

This should help

a date sorted view of the difficulty of all games for all 5 clubs. Every game is in a heat map sort together (all games all teams) so the hot red is the toughest game, and the dark blue is the easiest game

[EldrickOnIce]

Excellent to look at all playoff/draft implications.
Bruins have tough schedule, but so do Sens.
Sabres with easiest finish. Etc.

[Imported_Aussie]

What that new tables shows me is that if the Flames can't get separation from LA before the start of April, LA could well snag that 3rd division spot, or it might come down to game 81 matchup. That LA road trip is brutal though. Also shows with Winnipeg, just how tough their schedule is, except that Edmonton game. With Minnesota, their toughest games may well be once playoff seeding is settled, so they might get some softer lineups.

It could all change, but I am going to say Minnesota gets 7th, the Canucks get one of the division spots, the Kings, Flames and Jets all fight for the last 2 spots, slight edge to Flames, but too close to call. The Kings road trip will either be locking them in, making it a level contest, or putting them in 9th with ground to make up.

Potential matchups in playoffs:

Ducks vs Kings/Jets
Canucks vs Flames

Blues vs Wild
Preds vs Hawks

[Tron_fdc]

If we can't make it based on our schedule and Winnipeg does, they deserve to be there.

I kind of hope we both make it in to be honest though. We can bounce the nucks, Jets upset the Ducks, Wild and Hawks move on.

Much more even playing field to deal with in round 2 than Anaheim, STL and Chi.

Yes, I'm thinking out loud, fantasizing on a vancouver jettison from round 1.

[GioforPM]

Surprised at the toughness rating for LA and Philly. I take it the rating is based a little too much on standings, and not motivation.

I wouldn't be surprised for example if Minnie's last two games against Nashville and the Blues are eased up by the latter resting some guys.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Surprised at the toughness rating for LA and Philly. I take it the rating is based a little too much on standings, and not motivation.

I wouldn't be surprised for example if Minnie's last two games against Nashville and the Blues are eased up by the latter resting some guys.

Yes, but 'sustainable' could bite the Wild.
They have been perpetually 8-2 in their last 10 for a while now.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Bingo

This should help

a date sorted view of the difficulty of all games for all 5 clubs. Every game is in a heat map sort together (all games all teams) so the hot red is the toughest game, and the dark blue is the easiest game

It is really cool and interesting to look at these sorts of things but realistically the easiest game on Minnesota's schedule should be March 23 in Toronto.

If LA can finish the remainder of this month with a winning record they should have a playoff spot secured.

[IamNotKenKing]

I would be so ridiculously happy if Edmonton were to beat Vancouver on their last game of the year, and it both bounced Vancouver from the playoffs, and caused Edmonton to rise to 28th (if not 27th...). That would be brilliant.

Also, it is interesting that we only have one back to back left, while all others have two.

[D as in David]

I find it fascinating to look at these tables and imagine the permutations over the last few weeks of the season.

One of the limitations of the analysis, though, is that it uses season-long numbers and doesn't take into account how the teams are currently playing. You only have to look at Minnesota's easiest game, which is against the Kings.

Still fun to analyze.

Edit: In fact, the LA game shows as being considerably easier than the Toronto game!

[Bingo]

Things tightening up in the schedule world as the Flames have moved from an easy schedule to a middling schedule due to completing home games against Philly and Columbus.

The Flames now have the 18th toughest
Wild and Jets remain the worst at 1/2
LA is now closer at 16, Canucks 17

[Bingo]

And an update to game remaining comparable for all teams

[heep223]

Awesome that SJ and Col have the easiest schedules and they are virtually finished.

[Nehkara]

If you just have the teams winning the "easy" games and losing the "hard" games (easy and hard as defined by the above table) , you would end up having something like this:

Minnesota wins versus Calgary, LA, Detroit, and Winnipeg. Finishes with 97 points. (1st wild card)

Vancouver wins versus Winnipeg, Colorado, Dallas, LA, Arizona, and Edmonton. Finshes with 100 points. (2nd pacific)

Calgary wins versus Dallas, Dallas, Edmonton, Arizona, LA. Finishes with 96 points. (3rd pacific)

LA wins versus Edmonton, Colorado, Edmonton, San Jose. Finishes with 92 points. (2nd wild card)

Winnipeg wins versus Colorado, Calgary. Finishes with 92 points. (9th and out)

I'm curious to see how close to the truth this ends up being.

[Brewmaster]

The next four games for LA are huge. They could potentially fall out of the race or set themselves up for a really strong finish.

Minnesota also looks to have the toughest schedule, but Chicago, Nashville, and St. Louis might be resting up during that last week before playoffs. The toughest teams to play in the last two weeks will likely be those fighting for the last playoff spots, not necessarily the top place teams.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Brewmaster

The next four games for LA are huge. They could potentially fall out of the race or set themselves up for a really strong finish.

Agreed, the next four games are big but I don't see them dropping out altogether with a poor road trip. It wouldn't shock me if they were able to go 6-0 over their last six games - especially if they needed to.

[442scotty]

Not going to be an easy road to the playoffs... We need to win a lot of games because no one else seems to be losing...