Wild Card Race (Western Conference)

[codynw]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

So what do we prefer tonight? A Flames win and no 3 point game between LA and SJ obviously but which of those two are we hoping to win in regulation?

San Jose. Calgary doesn't need to pass them, but they need to finish ahead of LA.

[FlamesPuck12]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

So what do we prefer tonight? A Flames win and no 3 point game between LA and SJ obviously but which of those two are we hoping to win in regulation?

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html

According to that, LA in regulation gives us slightly more chance. Anything but a 3 point game that is.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by codynw

San Jose. Calgary doesn't need to pass them, but they need to finish ahead of LA.

I disagree. SJ losing solidly puts 2 spots open for business which increases our odds

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by codynw

San Jose. Calgary doesn't need to pass them, but they need to finish ahead of LA.

SJ winning guarantees us a playoff spot beyond tonight. Calgary winning and LA winning puts the Flames in the top 3 in the pacific.

Moving forward I think the Kings have another gear and SJ doesn't long term

[ForeverFlameFan]

Depends on if we win or lose.

If we win, we want the Sharks to win as well. It would leave a nice 3 point gap between us and the Kings, with the same GP.

If we lose tonight, I would prefer LA to win. It would have us focusing on winning the next game to get on top of both teams.

To make it less complicated, I just don't want a 3 point game tonight between LA and SJ.

[YogiBerra]

Average point percentage of opponents left:
Calgary: 0.548
LA Kings: 0.576
SJ Sharks: 0.569

With LA having a lot more road games left (22 out of 35) and their abysmal road record they definitely have the hardest schedule left. They also have Toffoli out with mono for at least one more week and Pearson just had surgery for a broken leg so is probably out for the season. Inconsistent play is the most likely thing to cause a drop as earlier in the year they couldn't score but now they can't keep the puck out of their net.

San Jose has about the same home/road games left as us so there isn't an advantage there. However they just lost Braun who plays on their shutdown pair and Wingels for a few weeks. Wingels is about equivalent to us losing glencross production wise however Wingels is extremely physical so Couture and Marleau won't have as much space to work with anymore. Nieto seems to be taking his place too so that weakens what has been used as their shutdown line so far. While Braun has not been having the best season so far the sharks have abysmal depth so they will be forced to promote Irwin or Hannan into their top 4. Marleau is playing badly lately with 4 points in his last 17 (2 against Calgary) and a -9.

While it seems we have a slight advantage schedule wise so far and the injuries to San Jose could drop them in the standings its still too early to take much from this. These 3 teams have about 18 games left before the trade deadline so changes in the standings may effect things. However the LA Kings only have $1.8 in capspace so they are most likely to add a bottom pairing defenseman in case Voynov doesn't return.

San Jose has about $5.5 in capspace but their gm has stated that he is moving towards a retool so they won't be likely to add anyone. However they aren't likely to move anyone out either unless Marleau/Thorton feel like waiving their contracts.

In Calgary a move is unlikely unless we are clearing space to call up a forward or goalie who deserves it. It is unlikely any of the moves at the deadline have a huge effect on these teams records short of Ortio coming up(if he gets sent down) and going on a Kipper esque run.

So I think San Jose is most likely to drop out of the 3 I didn't bother looking at Vancouver cause i think they will make it what do you guys think?

Edit: Also i don't think Glencross will be moved so i didn't consider that but if he is we have probably slipped in the standings already so this discussion would be moot

[heep223]

Originally Posted by YogiBerra

While Braun has not been having the best season so far the sharks have abysmal depth so they will be forced to promote Irwin or Hannan into their top 4.

Yikes....that would be akin to Engelland/Smid moving into top 4. Shudder.

Good analysis, thanks for doing that!

I for one wouldn't mind taking a look at Vancouver as I'm not convinced they are a playoff team.

EDIT: speaking of the Canucks....

[Itse]

Originally Posted by YogiBerra

So I think San Jose is most likely to drop out of the 3 I didn't bother looking at Vancouver cause i think they will make it what do you guys think?

Vancouver is not a great team under pressure. Would not be surprised if this year it killed them even before the playoffs.

I'm still amazed that Winnipeg is looking like they'll make it. From what I've seen this year, they sucked every time. Small sample size I guess.

[d_phaneuf]

based on play this year

Corrado taking Bieksa's spot is a bonus for the Canucks

[d_phaneuf]

sounds like Bieksa should be back in 4-6 though, so best case scenario is Corrado covers and then stays in lineup when hes back over Weber/Stanton

[White Out 403]

I asked siri on my fiances new iphone who the starting goaltender of the Winnipeg Jets is:



Jets are now 92.4 % for playoffs

[Tsawwassen]

After Wednesday's games:

1. Winnipeg (26-14-8) 22 ROW, 60 pts
San Jose (25-17-6) 23 ROW, 56 pts--second in Pacific Division
Vancouver (26-16-3) 24 ROW, 55 pts--third in Pacific Division
2. Calgary (25-19-3) 22 ROW, 53 pts
3. Los Angeles (20-15-12) 19 ROW, 52 pts
4. Colorado (20-18-10) 14 ROW, 50 pts
5. Dallas (21-18-7) 19 ROW, 49 pts
6. Minnesota (20-20-6) 18 ROW, 46 pts


Jets and Sharks won
Flames and Kings lost
Avs won in the shootout

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

I asked siri on my fiances new iphone who the starting goaltender of the Winnipeg Jets is:



Jets are now 92.4 % for playoffs

[troutman]

LA's odds have dipped below 50%:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html

DAL and COL are virtually done.

CGY, SJ and LA fighting over 7 and 8.

The Fan 960 was saying this morning that CGY has a brutal February schedule, but it is not showing up in these odds.

[badger89]

Originally Posted by Itse

Vancouver is not a great team under pressure. Would not be surprised if this year it killed them even before the playoffs.

I'm still amazed that Winnipeg is looking like they'll make it. From what I've seen this year, they sucked every time. Small sample size I guess.

Winnipeg has been a different team since Hutchinson took over the reins in goal and Byfuglein was moved back to D.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by troutman

LA's odds have dipped below 50%:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html

DAL and COL are virtually done.

CGY, SJ and LA fighting over 7 and 8.

The Fan 960 was saying this morning that CGY has a brutal February schedule, but it is not showing up in these odds.

Don't think that website takes schedule into account

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by DJones

Don't think that website takes schedule into account

Actually it does. Also takes into account home/road split

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by troutman

LA's odds have dipped below 50%:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html

DAL and COL are virtually done.

CGY, SJ and LA fighting over 7 and 8.

The Fan 960 was saying this morning that CGY has a brutal February schedule, but it is not showing up in these odds.

Lots of home games would make the odds look better, but some tough teams are up.

January:
Sabres
Wild
Oilers

February:
Jets
Sharks
Penguins
@Sharks
@Kings
Canucks
Bruins
Wild
Ducks
@Rangers
@Devils
@Islanders

[Igster]

Wow...Feb looks brutal.

[Bourque's Twin]

LA Kings Schedule is pretty tough too.

January
Blackhawks
@ Bruins

February
@ Capitals
@ Panthers
@ Lightning
@ Blue Jackets
Flames
Capitals
Lightning
@ Avalanche
@ Sharks
Red Wings
Senators
@ Ducks

Vancouver's scheudle is also tough:

January
Ducks
Sabres

February
Wild
Jets
Sharks
Penguins
@Wild
@Blackhawks
Bruins
@Flames
Wild
@Rangers
@Devils
@Islanders
@Bruins
@Sabres