AirAsia Flight Missing - 155 on board

[JonDuke]

Originally Posted by FLAME ENVY

The incident likely happened very quick (based on the current information) with little time to be terrified which is good.
If the aircraft came apart at FL350 +/- death would be near instant.

You'd still have about 30+/- seconds of useful consciousness at that altitude. (wouldn't you?)
That would have felt like a lifetime, I'm sure, IF indeed it did experience some sort of catastrophic fuselage failure at that height.

[FLAME ENVY]

Originally Posted by JonDuke

You'd still have about 30+/- seconds of useful consciousness at that altitude. (wouldn't you?)
That would have felt like a lifetime, I'm sure, IF indeed it did experience some sort of catastrophic fuselage failure at that height.

It's not the thin air that would get you instantly, it would be the trauma from the aircraft coming apart and being strewn to the atmosphere at 400+MPH.

[PIMking]

Originally Posted by JonDuke

You'd still have about 30+/- seconds of useful consciousness at that altitude. (wouldn't you?)
That would have felt like a lifetime, I'm sure, IF indeed it did experience some sort of catastrophic fuselage failure at that height.

if you weren't knocked unconscious from the failure or fear.

At least I hope

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by FLAME ENVY

Guaranteed not. Particularly if the aircraft came apart before hitting the water which is 99.9% likely based on current information. I personally believe this was a catastrophic breakup at a mid 30 FL which is not survivable.

Just wondering if you have a source for this as nothing i've found suggests that at all, yet alone with 99.9% certainty.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Dan02

Just wondering if you have a source for this as nothing i've found suggests that at all, yet alone with 99.9% certainty.

Yeah, the CBC link suggests there is evidence from a Malaysian radar that the plane may have climbed too steeply and stalled as a result. If that happened, there would have been plenty of time to consider what was happening.

I think the fact that there were no maydays or communications when they were at ~35,000 feet suggests that they were incapacitated, but from what I have read, it is not rare in aviation life and death emergencies that the pilots zone out protocol (i.e., stop communicating) and focus on the task at hand.

[sa226]

Not to mention standard atmosphere for 35000ft is -55C. The temps could have been anywhere from -30c to -60c (or more) at that altitude.

But with the convective stuff the temps could be all over the place, but likely not a balmy +25

[FLAME ENVY]

Originally Posted by Dan02

Just wondering if you have a source for this as nothing i've found suggests that at all, yet alone with 99.9% certainty.

As stated, it is simply my personal opinion and I could very much be wrong. We should know factually soon based on the debris field.

[FLAME ENVY]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Yeah, the CBC link suggests there is evidence from a Malaysian radar that the plane may have climbed too steeply and stalled as a result. If that happened, there would have been plenty of time to consider what was happening.

I think the fact that there were no maydays or communications when they were at ~35,000 feet suggests that they were incapacitated, but from what I have read, it is not rare in aviation life and death emergencies that the pilots zone out protocol (i.e., stop communicating) and focus on the task at hand.

A stall & loss of control at that altitude can certainly break an airplane.

Aviate, Navigate, Communicate are 3 of the most important words a pilot should know.

[Bigtime]

Thanks Flame Envy, was just about to post Aviate, Navigate, Communicate.

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by FLAME ENVY

As stated, it is simply my personal opinion and I could very much be wrong. We should know factually soon based on the debris field.

Originally Posted by FLAME ENVY

Particularly if the aircraft came apart before hitting the water which is 99.9% likely based on current information

That's an opinion?!??

So the answer you meant was no you have no evidence that it broke up in flight.

[FLAME ENVY]

Originally Posted by Dan02

That's an opinion?!??

So the answer you meant was no you have no evidence that it broke up in flight.

Relax, it is my opinion and I have a right to it. Keep watching CNN....

I am a pilot, so I do have some inherent knowledge about what can happen to an aircraft when things go wrong, particularly in the higher flight levels.

[Ryan Coke]

What makes you think it came apart? I haven't seen anything to suggest that but I haven't been watching super close. Seems more likely it was a stall and loss of control into the ocean. But I'm certainly not 99% sure of anything.

And the comment about 'forgetting protocol' and not calling a mayday...others have addressed it, but that is nothing about not doing things correctly. The only thing that will save the airplane is trying to save the airplane. Calling a mayday does absolutely nothing to prevent a crash.

I will say that this sounds like an issue where they didn't get the clearance they wanted to avoid weather. And as much as we typically adhere to clearances given by guys like Acey, there are times where it is appropriate to violate the clearance in order to keep the plane safe. These guys may have been too concerned with the controllers clearance, and not enough with the CB (thunderstorm) that was the primary threat.

I have had situations where ATC was unable to give the clearance I needed, but in a situation where the clearance is putting you into a CB there comes a time where you have to avoid the weather and tell the controller what you are doing and what you need. As Acey said, the weather for Canadian controllers is not very good so they don't know the gravity of the situation necessarily. US controllers have much better weather radar on their display.

[PIMking]

Just sad

[T@T]

Originally Posted by FLAME ENVY

It's not the thin air that would get you instantly, it would be the trauma from the aircraft coming apart and being strewn to the atmosphere at 400+MPH.

In the words of Barbara Graham when told by her executioner to "take a deep breath and it won't bother you" just before she died in San Quentin's gas chamber.

How the #### would you know?

[Acey]

MH17

“The cause of death in the great majority of these people would have been impact with the ground,” he said. Unless they were affected by the initial explosions or shrapnel, and absent some pre-existing condition like lung or heart disease, they would have remained alive and even been conscious at some point during the approximately 3-to-4-minute fall.

http://time.com/3028548/mh17-malaysi...ctims-ukraine/

[JonDuke]

Ugh. It's hard to even try to comprehend how horrific that must've been.

[FLAME ENVY]

Originally Posted by T@T

In the words of Barbara Graham when told by her executioner to "take a deep breath and it won't bother you" just before she died in San Quentin's gas chamber.

How the #### would you know?

I guess the forensic experts who have examined the bodies in previous aviation accidents where an aircraft has come apart in the flight levels (there have been numerous) have it all ####### wrong.

Come along with me on Saturday morning and I can set you free at FL410/450 (take your pick) and tell me how you feel after....

Nice correlation BTW

[nik-]

yeah!

let him murder you ... then you'll see!

[KelVarnsen]

Wow guys. Just wow.

[Acey]

Originally Posted by FLAME ENVY

Come along with me on Saturday morning and I can set you free at FL410/450 (take your pick) and tell me how you feel after....

The article I posted in reply #75 suggests that even in the event of catastrophic structural failure, if he has a parachute and deploys at say... 10k, he might live.

Maybe an ADS-B transponder too so I can see ya once you're down.