Friedman: The top 3 picks in the draft to be decided by lottery?

[the_only_turek_fan]

Team like St. Louis and Boston didn't very many high picks if any.

They had Johnson at #1 in 2006, and Pietrangelo at #4 in 2008.

Boston had Kessel at #5 in 2006, Hamill at #8 in 2007, and Seguin (via trade) at #2 in 2010.

Both are top teams today and could actually meet in this years Stanley Cup Final.

Calgary had Monahan at #6 in 2013, likely Dal Colle at #5 in 2014. The key is making hay with your late first rounders and subsequent rounds. If Monahan and a hypothetical Dal Colle turn out, and either one of Porier/Klimchuk/Gaudreau turn out we could be on our way to becoming the next Boston/St. Louis.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Pretty damn obvious a lot of teams are unhappy with Edmonton's ineptitude and Colorado's throwing of a season.

Honest question, how would this new format hurt Edmonton? Wouldn't they be the most likely to pick 1st of any team?

[$ven27]

Yeah, I think this has more to do with teams tanking (Carolina, Nashville, TB last year) rather then teams that genuinely suck ( Edmonton, Florida, Denver).

[djsFlames]

Man I'd love for a top 3 draw format to go into effect this draft, just to potentially ####block Edmonton on the Ekblad front. Would be hilarious (and maybe gets us ahead of them).

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I think this is getting a bit nuts. The NFL is just fine with it's system the way it is.

Changing the format every five or six years makes the NHL look bush league. It gives the impression the league isn't sure what purpose the draft serves. You can't go re-jigging the thing every time there are a couple exceptional talents on the horizon. Agree on the purpose of the draft, pick a format, and stick with it.

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

Team like St. Louis and Boston didn't very many high picks if any.

They had Johnson at #1 in 2006, and Pietrangelo at #4 in 2008.

Boston had Kessel at #5 in 2006, Hamill at #8 in 2007, and Seguin (via trade) at #2 in 2010.

Both are top teams today and could actually meet in this years Stanley Cup Final.

Both teams also had several drafts with multiple 1sts and multiple 2nd rounders. It's not just the high firsts, but lots of 1sts and 2nds that really ramp up the odds of drafting difference-makers. Problem is, to get those 1sts and 2nds you typically need to give up quality NHLers (which are in short supply on bad teams), and some fans will call that 'tanking'. Remember, St. Louis moved out Tkachuk, Guerin, Weight, and Brewer for picks.

Also, the key piece in rebuilding the Bruins was signing Chara, and that's a home-run, once-in-20-years UFA signing. Kudos for pulling it off, but signing a Chara-quality UFA isn't part of any realistic plan.

St. Louis

2006: 2 x 1st (including 1st overall); 2 x 2nd
2007: 3 x 1st; 2 x 2nd
2008: 1 x 1st (4th overall); 2 x 2nd
2010: 2 x 1st

[cral12]

Wrote on this topic almost 2 yrs back. Finally hope they look at changing it up. It does come at an inopportune for our Flames nation.

Link, if interested:

Fixing the NHL Entry Draft Lottery System: Playoff For Number One or Win to Win #1

[Tinordi]

I'll answer my own question, Edmonton would still have the best odds but would be much worse off in general.

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6809

[ricardodw]

The second or maybe third overall pick should go to the team that does not make the playoffs that has the best record over the last 20 games of the season.

That way the Flames would be playing for something positive.

In games 63 on of the none-playoff teams:

Flames 3-3-0
Oilers 4-2-1
Preds 3-3-0
Jets 1-3-3
Canucks 3-5-0
Yotes 4-2-0

Sabres 0-6-0
Panthers 2-3-1
Islanders 3-3-1
Canes 2-4-0
Sens 1-2-2
Devils 3-3-0
Wings 2-3-0
Caps 3-4-0

right now the only teams not tanking are the Oilers (??) and Yotes.

Devils Flames Islanders and Preds at .500


The rest are jockeying for draft picks.....

If you were playing for the 2nd pick overall the Flames would lock it up going 9-5 or maybe even 8-6 over their last 14 games...

The the Yotes keep up their current play and they get into the playoffs.

If the Oilers had something positive to play for they would likely implode.

[Antithesis]

I'm a fan of the draft wheel system brought up over at Grantland and discussed here a while ago. Every team knows what pick they will have at the beginning of the season (and indefinitely into the future). Eliminates the desire to tank as Colorado seems to have done last season and removes the reward for systemic ineptitude such as that seen up in Edmonton.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Honest question, how would this new format hurt Edmonton? Wouldn't they be the most likely to pick 1st of any team?

This is what concerned me as we'll. Can any team match the ineptitude of Edmonton over the last 5 years? Seems like it would hurt the flames and help oil/isles/panthers

[SOMBRI2]

this is good news perhaps.

what bad teams are good at? not sucking or tanking...but golfing!

play a 9-hole mini golf and see who wins......get 1st overall.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Antithesis

I'm a fan of the draft wheel system brought up over at Grantland and discussed here a while ago. Every team knows what pick they will have at the beginning of the season (and indefinitely into the future). Eliminates the desire to tank as Colorado seems to have done last season and removes the reward for systemic ineptitude such as that seen up in Edmonton.

The wheel system is absolutely horrible. Its purpose is the complete opposite of what a draft is meant to do. The wheel system ensures that rich/good teams always get top prospects, which takes away from rebuilding/poor teams. How would you feel right now if the wheel system had Calgary drafting 30th this year and Chicago 1st?

[Fighting Banana Slug]

I don't care for aggregating the last 5 years to amend the odds. I do like the idea of amending the odds, depending on how far out of the playoffs a team is, based on points rather than just the standings.
If you accept the idea that the worst team should have the best odds, I have no problem with Buffalo having better odds at number one based on the fact that they are way behind every other team. For the Flames/Oilers/Panthers/Isles, I think they are all relatively close and should all have relatively the same chance at number one. I hate the idea of one flukey win (Anaheim last year) affecting the draft results materially. Not sure of the math, but it seems more fair that a team that has 65 points should only have a small increased percentage over a team with 66 points, rather than a more significant chance if the seeding was 27 versus 26, for example.

[Joborule]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

This is what concerned me as we'll. Can any team match the ineptitude of Edmonton over the last 5 years? Seems like it would hurt the flames and help oil/isles/panthers

To be fair, it seems they need all the help they could get.

[Antithesis]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The wheel system is absolutely horrible. Its purpose is the complete opposite of what a draft is meant to do. The wheel system ensures that rich/good teams always get top prospects, which takes away from rebuilding/poor teams. How would you feel right now if the wheel system had Calgary drafting 30th this year and Chicago 1st?

I can see where you are coming from, but I disagree. The purpose is to ensure an equitable distribution of draft picks. It removes the possibility of a team tanking to get a better pick (Colorado last year, supposedly) or the reward for glaring institutional ineptitude (Edmonton). There's nothing saying that a team like Calgary couldn't trade picks in the future to acquire better selections right now.

In addition, you obviously could not institute such a system right now and have it in place for next year. I agree entirely that such action would be both unfair and unreasonable. You would have to, at minimum, implement it for a season when no picks have yet been traded (whenever that is - I am obviously not an expert) and I would argue you would have to implement it far enough in the future that you can't make any reasonable prediction regarding the talent level of the teams in the league.

You are looking at a 5+ year window for implementation, so it is not an immediate fix, but if you are looking for equitable talent distribution, it is my opinion that the wheel is the way to go.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The wheel system is absolutely horrible. Its purpose is the complete opposite of what a draft is meant to do. The wheel system ensures that rich/good teams always get top prospects, which takes away from rebuilding/poor teams. How would you feel right now if the wheel system had Calgary drafting 30th this year and Chicago 1st?

Disagree completely. The wheel is the most fair and equitable system put forward. Everyone gets equal time at the top, middle and bottom of the draft. The onus changes from worrying about your draft position, as that has been determined before the season starts, to worrying about getting your team to play good hockey.

You may complain about a good team getting a good pick, but what is unfair about that? I think it is unfair the Oilers get top picks all the time and they continue to ruin them!

I think moving to the wheel would be great. Every team would get that first overall pick, every 30 years. I think there would also make the trade deadline more interesting as teams would then know exactly what they are getting in return or giving up. Teams would likely be more inclined to make a deal if there was more certainty to what was being given up.

I think the wheel would be a massive improvement as it would five crap organizations to properly scout and develop players. As it is right now, the Oilers can piss good prospects away because they know another good draft pick is just around the corner! If they had drafted early last season they would be drafting late this year, giving those good prospects a chance to go to a team that might just develop on a good team.

[Travis Munroe]

I too think that a format where the bottom teams - say bottom 10 with 25% of the season left play for lottery odds. The best team in the final 25% of the season wins the highest lottery odds.
You would still have to give the worst team a edge on the 10th worse at the start of this "losers tournament" but I am sure there are ways to do it.
Make it exciting for fans with non playoff teams to try and win games. I hate the short term high when we win but the feeling the next day as if I wish we would have lost a close one.

[Zee]

Does anyone have a list of first overall picks that have won a cup, and how many have not?

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Zee

Does anyone have a list of first overall picks that have won a cup, and how many have not?

With the team that drafted them? It works out to about 2 out of every 10 first overalls.

Crosby (2005) and Fleury (2003) in Pittsburgh
Kane (2007) in Chicago
Lecavalier (1998) in Tampa (Boo)
Modano (1988) in Dallas (drafted by Minnesota, but same franchise)
Lemieux (1984) in Pittsburgh
Potvin (1973) in New York
Lafleur (1971) in Montreal
Houle (1969) in Montreal

[Husky]

I think the formula should include some sort of logic that if you have a 1st overall selection in the past 5 years....it hurts from chance of getting 1st overall again.