Mike Gillis Letter to Vancouver STH

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

They still have a bunch of useful pieces, they just need to restock with talent.

which ones? If you trade Kesler and Edler, who's left besides the Sedins? Bieksa could be traded too, Burrows is done as an offensive player it seems and goaltending is questionable. Who's left then? Garrison? Kassian? Lol.

The Canucks are definitely not in the position for a quick fix. Teams like Ottawa were because they drafted well and had young stars like Karlsson coming through the ranks. Vancouver doesn't have that, not even close. You yourself said that the Sedins are more like 2nd liners going forward ... I agree. You can't do a quick re-tooling when you don't have anyone to take over their 1st line duties though.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

If there ever was a team that was primed for a re-tool it's the Canucks. They still have a bunch of useful pieces, they just need to restock with talent. They could theoretically do a two year mini-rebuild and get back into the playoffs instead of the protracted painful route the Flames and Oilers have taken.

Sedins are likely no longer first liners but they have a ready made second line in those two for the next four years. They're also a great line to develop young scoring talent on. Up and down the roster there's a bunch of solid NHL players. Sell some of them off, keep the others, get some picks, bottom dwell this season and next and they could be back in short order. Biggest priority for that team is in the motivation and re-energizing the roster. They need some new leadership to emerge and to start pushing the play. That will be accomplished by dishing off some of their veterans and critically by drafting/acquiring good hungry young players.

This post is completely out to lunch. Have you looked at the Canucks roster recently? It is one of the most shallow lineups in the league. Outside of Kesler they lack solid veterans they can move. Perhaps if Edler bounces back they can move him but a guy like Bieksa won't return much more than Reggie did for the Flames. Guys like Higgins and Hansen will not return anything substantial. The twins, Hamhuis, and Garrison are likely not waiving their NTC any time soon.

This team is in just as bad of a spot as the Flames a couple years ago except their players are older and their decline appears to have happened a little quicker

[puckedoff]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Or I could be just some other guy with a different opinion than you that isn't blinded by fan hate. Either way, they have pieces with value that if they're proactive with the can recharge the rebuild quickly. Don't see how that's controversial ore how that makes me a Canucks fan. Oh yeah, I'm Canucks fan because it's not divers and 7uongo every sentence.

What you've described is the same state the Flames were in 2 years prior to officially beginning the rebuild. And I agree. Vancouver has pieces they could move now for value and to accelerate their rebuild, or they can hold on and shoot for 8th place in the next couple seasons and end up getting scraps for their good players.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Hard to point and laugh at Vancouver for having a bad prospect base when we're the team that's lurching to now 5 straight seasons out of the playoffs.

How so? Seems to me the two things are separate. Very easy to laugh at Vancouver no matter what is happening with Calgary.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

If there ever was a team that was primed for a re-tool it's the Canucks. They still have a bunch of useful pieces, they just need to restock with talent. They could theoretically do a two year mini-rebuild and get back into the playoffs instead of the protracted painful route the Flames and Oilers have taken.

Sedins are likely no longer first liners but they have a ready made second line in those two for the next four years. They're also a great line to develop young scoring talent on. Up and down the roster there's a bunch of solid NHL players. Sell some of them off, keep the others, get some picks, bottom dwell this season and next and they could be back in short order. Biggest priority for that team is in the motivation and re-energizing the roster. They need some new leadership to emerge and to start pushing the play. That will be accomplished by dishing off some of their veterans and critically by drafting/acquiring good hungry young players.

It is great that Van fans think they can do a quick retool, but the reality is quite different.

So let's say you're right and the Sedins can continue to be a solid 2nd line for the next 4 years (we'll ignore the fact that they are not even doing that now)...

Exactly who do you think will be a new 1st line that will take them to the playoffs in 2 years? Horvat, Jensen and Shinkaruk?

As for the solid players up and down the roster, please explain who that would be. Take a look at that forward group - once Kesler is traded, they have pretty much nothing (other than the Sedins , who have been discussed already). Burrows, Kassian, Matthias, Booth, Santorelli? Please help us, because no one else seems to be able to see it.

Word is out about Edler's back problems. Bieksa is not the player he was two years ago. They have a decent defense corp if they trade no one. They have 2 young, unproven goalies. And they have the Sedins and a pile of junk on forward.

Please tell us how they are going to retool this on the fly and be back in the playoffs in two years.

[EYE_Overstand]

The biggest thing that will play a negative role to the "retool" is that they don't have a proven goalie. They traded their 2 legit NHL goalies away.... Dummies

[Tinordi]

@Enoch

I see a solid top 4 D in place for decent money and for another three years. And yes, they need some young top six talent. That's what I said. Should they go in the tank in the next two years I can see them climbing out faster because there's already a decent amount of NHL pieces in place. Goaltending obviously is a question but I'm making the assumption that decent goaltending is easy to come by these days.

And there's the assumption that the Sedins are done as top six players. That may be true. Injuries and age may have sealed their fate. But older top line players by my read tend to have these type of seasons in their 30s last big contract. They will have a hugely disappointing season and then rebound. Looking at the Sedin possession numbers for this season indicates that they're not nearly as bad as they seem and that they still drive the play significantly. But alot of the Vancouver is done talk is implicitly assuming that the Sedins are just no longer even useful top six players. I just don't see the evidence to support that just yet.

Anyway, call me a Canuck fan, I like to think about it as talking hockey and about a team that I have probably the second most knowledge of by virtue of them being the next rival.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

@Enoch

I see a solid top 4 D in place for decent money and for another three years. And yes, they need some young top six talent. That's what I said. Should they go in the tank in the next two years I can see them climbing out faster because there's already a decent amount of NHL pieces in place. Goaltending obviously is a question but I'm making the assumption that decent goaltending is easy to come by these days.

And there's the assumption that the Sedins are done as top six players. That may be true. Injuries and age may have sealed their fate. But older top line players by my read tend to have these type of seasons in their 30s last big contract. They will have a hugely disappointing season and then rebound. Looking at the Sedin possession numbers for this season indicates that they're not nearly as bad as they seem and that they still drive the play significantly. But alot of the Vancouver is done talk is implicitly assuming that the Sedins are just no longer even useful top six players. I just don't see the evidence to support that just yet.

Anyway, call me a Canuck fan, I like to think about it as talking hockey and about a team that I have probably the second most knowledge of by virtue of them being the next rival.

But you perfectly illustrate the challenge - they need some top 6 pieces, so they need to tank to get them. But at the same time, 'they still have some decent pieces' and 'a solid top 4 D'.

So if that's true, how do they tank? And even if they do tank and get some good prospects, expecting them to be contributing players within a couple years (while the Sedins are still decent 2nd line players) is unrealistic.

That is the conundrum that I see the Canucks to be in.

(and I didn't call you a Canuck fan - even though I think you are one - we are simply debating the potential fate of the team)

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by FAN

I disagree with this. To me, Horvat is a sure-fire NHL player while the jury is still out on Poirier. Poirier is likely a top 6 player or bust guy, while Horvat is going to produce like a Manny Malhotra if he can't be a top 6 guy.

?????

The "top-6 or bust" title is for players who are highly skilled, high junior hockey scorers, but lack one or more of size/strength/defense/etc.
Think Linus Omark and Robbie Schremp.

You are totally out to lunch on your opinion of Poirier. If his offense isn't enough for a top 6 role, I'm fairly certain that his size, strength, speed, and awareness, will be more than enough for the bottom 6.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by devo22

The Canucks are definitely not in the position for a quick fix. Teams like Ottawa were because they drafted well and had young stars like Karlsson coming through the ranks. Vancouver doesn't have that, not even close. You yourself said that the Sedins are more like 2nd liners going forward ... I agree. You can't do a quick re-tooling when you don't have anyone to take over their 1st line duties though.

The thing about a retool is that they don't need to look too far to find one that actually worked pretty well.

I would say that the Canucks did an effective retool after the lockout season. They were able to transition away from a group led by Naslund, Morrison, Bertuzzi, and Linden to one led by the Sedins, Kesler, and Bieksa.

Oddly enough, Bertuzzi was the only one of the old leadership group who got them anything in a trade. Naslund and Morrison both left as free agents, and Linden retired as a Canuck.

Coming out of the lockout, they had the Sedins, Kesler, Burrows, and Bieksa all ready to work their way up to larger roles with the team. Even then, it was still a rough road for a few years.

From what I've seen, they don't have that group of young guys pushing to take over now. Without them, a retooling is much more difficult.


Gillis makes the comparison to the Ducks in his letter. When they won the Cup, the Ducks had 21 year-olds Getzlaf and Perry on that team. Those two were top scorers for the Ducks in the playoffs. Through all the changes the Ducks have made, they're still led by Getzlaf and Perry, who still aren't 30 years-old.

[Cole436]

Originally Posted by FAN

I disagree with this. To me, Horvat is a sure-fire NHL player while the jury is still out on Poirier. Poirier is likely a top 6 player or bust guy, while Horvat is going to produce like a Manny Malhotra if he can't be a top 6 guy.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

[Wolfman]

Originally Posted by Cole436

You have no idea what you're talking about.

I agree FAN should sit out a couple plays, take a knee.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Wolfman

I agree FAN should sit out a couple plays, take a knee.

Should probably just retire from posting IMO

[devo22]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

You are totally out to lunch on your opinion of Poirier. If his offense isn't enough for a top 6 role, I'm fairly certain that his size, strength, speed, and awareness, will be more than enough for the bottom 6.

agreed. If he doesn't become a top line F, I still expect him to make the NHL as a Michael Grabner type of forward (who, like Poirier in juniors, is a great weapon on the PK with his speed), but with more grit. Poirier has so many good attributes besides his goal scoring that I'd argue that he's not even close to being a "top 6 or bust" player.

[Tinordi]

Provided Poirier doesn't totally bust out he'll be at worst a Shean Donovan type. I'd love for him to turn into a Pavelski type 2nd liner and PKer with plucky scoring and a lot of grit.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by getbak

The thing about a retool is that they don't need to look too far to find one that actually worked pretty well.

I would say that the Canucks did an effective retool after the lockout season. They were able to transition away from a group led by Naslund, Morrison, Bertuzzi, and Linden to one led by the Sedins, Kesler, and Bieksa.

Oddly enough, Bertuzzi was the only one of the old leadership group who got them anything in a trade. Naslund and Morrison both left as free agents, and Linden retired as a Canuck.

Coming out of the lockout, they had the Sedins, Kesler, Burrows, and Bieksa all ready to work their way up to larger roles with the team. Even then, it was still a rough road for a few years.

From what I've seen, they don't have that group of young guys pushing to take over now. Without them, a retooling is much more difficult.


Gillis makes the comparison to the Ducks in his letter. When they won the Cup, the Ducks had 21 year-olds Getzlaf and Perry on that team. Those two were top scorers for the Ducks in the playoffs. Through all the changes the Ducks have made, they're still led by Getzlaf and Perry, who still aren't 30 years-old.

The good young talent comes from the return in trades you get for Kesler, Edler, Bieksa, etc.

It's not a slam dunk, but you roll the dice and hope the blue chip prospect or the mid-round first you get turn into contributing top 6/top 4 roster players.

The key of course, is you take the deal for those guys while you still can. Waiting for them to decline in value is how you go from Schenn/Simmonds to Hanowski/Agostino.

Wait another year on Kesler has he's likely to lose value. A year off of his good contract, with a similar production to now and he's not worth the same amount he was this year. It's a tricky balance.

[Galakanokis]

Rumors are a few if not all of the home town discount guys will not waive their no trade clauses. Bieksa, Edler, Hamhuis, Garrison are the main ones. It is obvious that Kesler wants out but he has already limited the teams he will waive for. It is not as cut and dry as it looks. Easy to say trade 'em all but what if they don't want to go?

It is guys like Tanev, Higgins and Hansen that might be easier to move but the returns won't be great and they are no exactly the problem with the team.

I agree there are pieces in place but teams that retool general already have the young talent on the team and are ready to step up. By the time the Canucks find or develop the new young talent the established will be on the bad side of 30. Not getting back established prospects for Schneider and Luongo was a huge mistake. The chance of any of their past few draft picks making a big impact in the next couple of years is slim.

If, and that's a big if, they can get a substantial return for Kesler than maybe they might turn things around quickly but I highly doubt it. They may squeak into the playoffs but Western Conference powers right now are all pretty young teams.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Galakanokis

Rumors are a few if not all of the home town discount guys will not waive their no trade clauses. Bieksa, Edler, Hamhuis, Garrison are the main ones. It is obvious that Kesler wants out but he has already limited the teams he will waive for. It is not as cut and dry as it looks. Easy to say trade 'em all but what if they don't want to go?

It is guys like Tanev, Higgins and Hansen that might be easier to move but the returns won't be great and they are no exactly the problem with the team.

I agree there are pieces in place but teams that retool general already have the young talent on the team and are ready to step up. By the time the Canucks find or develop the new young talent the established will be on the bad side of 30. Not getting back established prospects for Schneider and Luongo was a huge mistake. The chance of any of their past few draft picks making a big impact in the next couple of years is slim.

If, and that's a big if, they can get a substantial return for Kesler than maybe they might turn things around quickly but I highly doubt it. They may squeak into the playoffs but Western Conference powers right now are all pretty young teams.

And I think they're going to be disappointed in what Kesler is worth, especially if hes hamstringing them with a limited number of teams.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Galakanokis

Rumors are a few if not all of the home town discount guys will not waive their no trade clauses. Bieksa, Edler, Hamhuis, Garrison are the main ones. It is obvious that Kesler wants out but he has already limited the teams he will waive for. It is not as cut and dry as it looks. Easy to say trade 'em all but what if they don't want to go?

It is guys like Tanev, Higgins and Hansen that might be easier to move but the returns won't be great and they are no exactly the problem with the team.

I agree there are pieces in place but teams that retool general already have the young talent on the team and are ready to step up. By the time the Canucks find or develop the new young talent the established will be on the bad side of 30. Not getting back established prospects for Schneider and Luongo was a huge mistake. The chance of any of their past few draft picks making a big impact in the next couple of years is slim.

If, and that's a big if, they can get a substantial return for Kesler than maybe they might turn things around quickly but I highly doubt it. They may squeak into the playoffs but Western Conference powers right now are all pretty young teams.

So reminiscent of Calgary. There were rumours for 2 summers that Regehr had been asked to waive his no-trade and declined.

[TorqueDog]