Tod Button on Flames Prospects

[timbit]

Originally Posted by strombad

My issue was more so with someone who both says he won't make the NHL, and then says he might make the NHL.

Which is it, is his upside that of an NHL regular? Or is it not? If you've seen him play and feel his upside isn't even NHL calibre, then WHY would you NOT be surprised if he makes it to the NHL?

A lot of your original post criticised where he played, not the player itself. So excuse me for questioning you, but let's not pretend you were giving much in the way of insight. As someone who has been here for 6 months, I encourage you to focus on the player, not where he played or where he was scouted from or what some of his peers said about him.

Hell, if I was to say "Monahan is not going to become anything more than. 3rd liner, I've seen him play more than 30 games." I would expect to be jumped on. Janko is nowhere near the same prospect, but when you say "Janko can't make the NHL, I've seen him play 30 times" I'm going to question your credibility.

Just my opinion, but based on several viewings , Jankowski has a 35/ 65 projected chance of being a top 9 forward.

He has good hands, decent stride, but very soft. Once or twice a game you notice his skillset. The rest of the time he is pretty invisible.

Time will tell.

[AcGold]

With gaudreau I think it will boil down to how much muscle he can add not to beat other guys in strength but to help him survive a career. Other small guys like Fleury or St.Louis were/are solid, they don't have to shy away from hits.

I don't care how skilled or fast you are, you'll get hit in the NHL. A guy like Gaudreau will take a long time to develop, he'll need to at least reach 175-180 to be able to play his role. It will be tricky, he will get frustrated being sent up and down if he's on the flames but a guy that's 5'8 160 has a high likelihood of being hurt, a seemingly benign open ice hit to most guys could sideline him for a while. Hopefully he has patience with the flames and his career, he has so much potential it's just how it's developed. I do enjoy watching him play that's for sure, he seems to think way faster than most guys he's played against so far and makes a habit of making the smart play, in that split second he makes better decisions than most.

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by New Era

Yup, because that's how you build a winner. Sell off those players who have over-achieved and become winners at every level they have played, but sit on those players who have stalled or gone retrograde and continue to hope they turn into winners.

Now you're getting it. Good on you.

[LiquidX]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

He should be. Sell him to the highest bidder.

If this kid gets some meat on him, he could be fantastic. He's able to do everything silky smooth at top speed, in traffic. We don't have anyone else in the system with his level of skill, and whatever we'd get back in trade would almost certainly have less skill and more size (that's a sutter trade). I'd hope to hang onto him for a couple years and see if he can bulk up a bit before giving up on him. Lots of skinny kids get their chances in the nhl - he'll get his too.

[Hugh Jahrmes]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

He's no ordinary shorty.

I just pictured a gangsta rap video with some trap stars throwing rapping about "ain't no ordinary shorty" then the scene shifts to Gaudreau throwing stacks of money and kissing a fist full of Stanley cup rings

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by AcGold

With gaudreau I think it will boil down to how much muscle he can add not to beat other guys in strength but to help him survive a career. Other small guys like Fleury or St.Louis were/are solid, they don't have to shy away from hits.

I don't care how skilled or fast you are, you'll get hit in the NHL. A guy like Gaudreau will take a long time to develop, he'll need to at least reach 175-180 to be able to play his role. It will be tricky, he will get frustrated being sent up and down if he's on the flames but a guy that's 5'8 160 has a high likelihood of being hurt, a seemingly benign open ice hit to most guys could sideline him for a while. Hopefully he has patience with the flames and his career, he has so much potential it's just how it's developed. I do enjoy watching him play that's for sure, he seems to think way faster than most guys he's played against so far and makes a habit of making the smart play, in that split second he makes better decisions than most.

Gaudreau is the same size as Steve Sullivan. Yeah, the same Steve Sullivan that played 1000+ games in the NHL and scored 747 points. You can't measure the ability or potential of players based on their size. People did that with Gretzky. Get over the guy's size and instead focus on the fact that he's been dominant at every level he's ever played at. Remember how Gaudreau was going to get exposed by the tougher competition at the world juniors? He was going to get crushed by the superior and much larger Canadian defensemen at the world junior? That lineup included Dougie Hamilton, Scott Harrington, Ryan Murphy, Griffin Reinhart, Morgan Reilly and our own Tyler Wotherspoon. What happened again? Relax and just wait for him to get his first chance against the big boys at camp. I guarantee you'll be seeing interviews with our defensemen and they'll be sputtering about not being able to catch the little #######. This kid is special. Thankfully he's ours.

[Ziggy Lidstrom]

calgARI, I recall our discussion about Krider back in his draft year. As I recall, you coached in his HS league and had watched him personally several times. In fairness, you did mention it in your primary post in this thread. Yet, I would like point out that at that time you didn't see anything that made him NHL caliber either. My point is that not all players follow linear development models. Janko and Krider somewhat mirror each other, but will ultimately be different commodities. Janko is still so young, he's 19 years old. He's two months older than money hands. When he gets to Abbotsford we'll know what we have. Until then just enjoy the ride that is the rollercoaster of prospecting.

Personally, the instruction he is getting in Providence to me, expands his potential to include bottom six potential aside from the boom or bust label he held in projections to be top six or bust. He's 6'4, with wheels, smarts and hands. If he physically develops and gets the confidence to battle the pros, we have a serious asset. Plus that one post discussing the redraft of his draft year and his spot was only 4 away from where we picked him is encouraging in that outside the org. his is gaining credence. At least it's a trend in the right direction.

All in all, great thread. Bill Arnold despite getting plenty of heady praise, gets none in the thread. I was a fan when Darryl drafted him and am still. He is gonna be a pro player. I think he is gonna be a real good pro that tops at 45 pts one day but gets selke nods from time to time. He quietly goes about his business while being a strong leader on one of the strongest teams in the NCAA. He easily gets a contract.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by New Era

Gaudreau is the same size as Steve Sullivan. Yeah, the same Steve Sullivan that played 1000+ games in the NHL and scored 747 points. You can't measure the ability or potential of players based on their size. People did that with Gretzky. Get over the guy's size and instead focus on the fact that he's been dominant at every level he's ever played at. Remember how Gaudreau was going to get exposed by the tougher competition at the world juniors? He was going to get crushed by the superior and much larger Canadian defensemen at the world junior? That lineup included Dougie Hamilton, Scott Harrington, Ryan Murphy, Griffin Reinhart, Morgan Reilly and our own Tyler Wotherspoon. What happened again? Relax and just wait for him to get his first chance against the big boys at camp. I guarantee you'll be seeing interviews with our defensemen and they'll be sputtering about not being able to catch the little #######. This kid is special. Thankfully he's ours.

Not that I'm a believer that Gadreau can't make it into the NHL but the world juniors is hardly a barometer of how a player will fare in the NHL. We have seen lots of undersized guys like Marty Murray and Nigel Dawes tear it up at the WJC. Petan looks just as talented as Gadreau but he's still kind of a longshot to be an impact player in the NHL. I don't think you can dismiss that smaller players face taller odds at having their games transfer to the NHL.

[sureLoss]

Brian Costello on the Flames rising in the THN's future watch:

http://metronews.ca/voices/the-hocke...r-than-before/

But I’m happy to report the Flames are climbing the Future Watch ladder in this year’s report, which we’re currently working on. I’m not at liberty to provide a ranking because the final results aren’t in, but Calgary will be closer to the top than the bottom for the first time in 12 years.

Here’s Calgary’s 12-year rank in Future Watch, starting with the most recent: 27th in 2013, 29th, 27th, 23rd, 26th, 25th, 16th, 21st, 18th, 19th, 21st, 11th in 2002.

And why will Calgary be higher in 2014 in the rankings due out in early March? There was a stronger emphasis on scouting during the Jay Feaster managerial years and having three first-round picks in 2013 really helped the coffers. Who knows, had Feaster or Sutter been willing to swallow a rebuild two or three years earlier, the cupboard would be stocked even better much sooner.

Establishing a top 10 for Calgary was made difficult because of the calibre of prospects that had to be left off the list. It is that strong. A panel of scouts determined Calgary’s top players in the system are Sven Baertschi, Johnny Gaudreau, Emile Poirier, Morgan Klimchuk, Joni Ortio, Jon Gillies, Mark Jankowski, Markus Granlund, Max Reinhart and Bill Arnold.

Several solid names had to be culled off the top 10 list. They include names such as Tyler Wotherspoon, Patrick Sieloff, Ben Hanowski, Ken Agostino, Corban Knight, Michael Ferland, Eric Roy, Keegan Kanzig, Brett Kulak, Ryan Culkin and John Ramage.

Some of these latter group of players surely would have made top 10 lists in other organizations.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Brian Costello on the Flames rising in the THN's future watch:

http://metronews.ca/voices/the-hocke...r-than-before/

Good lord, is this a dream? It can't be true... Best prospects we've had since 2002, that bumper crop of Brent Krahn, Oleg Saprykin, Eric Nystrom, Andrei Taratukhin and Andrei Medvedev? Things sure are looking up...

[calgARI]

Originally Posted by Ziggy Lidstrom

calgARI, I recall our discussion about Krider back in his draft year. As I recall, you coached in his HS league and had watched him personally several times. In fairness, you did mention it in your primary post in this thread. Yet, I would like point out that at that time you didn't see anything that made him NHL caliber either. My point is that not all players follow linear development models. Janko and Krider somewhat mirror each other, but will ultimately be different commodities. Janko is still so young, he's 19 years old. He's two months older than money hands. When he gets to Abbotsford we'll know what we have. Until then just enjoy the ride that is the rollercoaster of prospecting.

I can't remember what I posted about Kreider but I didn't think he was a first round pick for the same reasons I don't think Jankowski should have been - too hard to project from that level relative to NCAA or CHL. I do recall saying that Kreider had NHL skating ability and an NHL frame. Kreider was highly impactful at the prep level and I wouldn't have been at all surprised to see him make the NHL. Too early to conclude just how impactful he will be in the NHL though.

Not to defend myself or credibility, but I regularly saw Chris Higgins and Max Pacioretty in prep (and college) and raved about both on this board as sure-fire NHLers. I'm not a scout or anything but then again, they hit and miss their projections all the time. Bottom line is, and there is no surprise with this, but projecting is hard with any 18 or 19 year old. It is even harder when it is an 18 year old coming from an especially low level of competition. Doesn't mean someone can't develop late (see Penner) or out of lower leagues, but the sampling under those circumstances is even more inprecise than out of the CHL or NCAA.

[calgARI]

Originally Posted by strombad

My issue was more so with someone who both says he won't make the NHL, and then says he might make the NHL.

Which is it, is his upside that of an NHL regular? Or is it not? If you've seen him play and feel his upside isn't even NHL calibre, then WHY would you NOT be surprised if he makes it to the NHL?

A lot of your original post criticised where he played, not the player itself. So excuse me for questioning you, but let's not pretend you were giving much in the way of insight. As someone who has been here for 6 months, I encourage you to focus on the player, not where he played or where he was scouted from or what some of his peers said about him.

Hell, if I was to say "Monahan is not going to become anything more than. 3rd liner, I've seen him play more than 30 games." I would expect to be jumped on. Janko is nowhere near the same prospect, but when you say "Janko can't make the NHL, I've seen him play 30 times" I'm going to question your credibility.

Do I have to decide now how Jankowski is going to project?

You seriously need to calm down. We are speculating on prospects. Prospects. Scouts, media, fans. Speculation is speculation. Projection is projection. I hope Jankowski turns out to be a stud. Based on what I've seen, I don't think he will be one because I don't like his hockey sense, willingness to engage physically, or skillset in tight. Could I be wrong? Of course and as a Flames fan I hope I am wrong. Don't take it so personally. Disagree all you want but none of what we think matters in terms of what will end up happening. It matters just for the sake of discussion, not attacks, discussion. It seems hard for you but try and differentiate.

I don't expect to be "jumped on" for saying my opinion on a prospect I have seen play more than most people here. Nor do I think it is fair to be "jumped on" for stating an opinion about anything on this board. Disagree all you want but questioning someone's credibility because you disagree is not something we do here. Get ahold of yourself.

[strombad]

Originally Posted by calgARI

Do I have to decide now how Jankowski is going to project?

You seriously need to calm down. We are speculating on prospects. Prospects. Scouts, media, fans. Speculation is speculation. Projection is projection. I hope Jankowski turns out to be a stud. Based on what I've seen, I don't think he will be one because I don't like his hockey sense, willingness to engage physically, or skillset in tight. Could I be wrong? Of course and as a Flames fan I hope I am wrong. Don't take it so personally. Disagree all you want but none of what we think matters in terms of what will end up happening. It matters just for the sake of discussion, not attacks, discussion. It seems hard for you but try and differentiate.

I don't expect to be "jumped on" for saying my opinion on a prospect I have seen play more than most people here. Nor do I think it is fair to be "jumped on" for stating an opinion about anything on this board. Disagree all you want but questioning someone's credibility because you disagree is not something we do here. Get ahold of yourself.

I'm as calm as can be. If you want to make this about "what we do here" and throw weight around, so be it, but you should know that making condescending comments like "you seriously need to calm down", "it seems hard for you, but try and differentiate", and "get ahold of yourself" is not, in fact, "what we do here".

I was simply questioning the logic you were using to come to your conclusion, not "jumping" on you, but if being questioned in any way offends you, I'm genuinely sorry. There was literally no attack to carry out, simply a line of questioning and critical thinking that you didn't like.

This board is a discussion board, and if you can't back up your claims expect to be questioned. I think that is more than fair. You were much more clear in this response so thank you! I post things on here and get questioned, sometimes I'm wrong, sometimes I'm right, but it never bothers me having to justify myself.

Personally, I'm still of the mind that Jankowski is one of our highest potential prospects. I haven't seen him play more than a couple games myself, but I use that along with the published opinions of scouts and media types to form my stance. Do I think he'll ever be an impact player in the NHL? No, I don't. But I believe his top end is that of a top 6 calibre center. I also believe there is a large drop-off between his top end and even his mid-range. I believe he is going to have to put it all together in just the right way to make the show, but if he does, he's going to be excellent.

Originally Posted by New Era

Gaudreau is the same size as Steve Sullivan. Yeah, the same Steve Sullivan that played 1000+ games in the NHL and scored 747 points.

People should also keep Brian Gionta in mind. If Johnny puts on 20-30 pounds he's going to be a more than capable NHL sized player. Gionta's career kind of completely fell off at a point, but in his prime he wasn't some crash and bang guy and he handled contact just fine.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by fotze

Just to cream some jeans here. 4th goal from Poirier last night. Credit to GoJetsGo in the other thread for the gif.

Toe-dragger?

Do not want - send him to Edmonton!

/gt

[Enoch Root]

Kreider is an interesting discussion point.

I watched a fair bit of the BC title run in 2012 and I said several times that I was more impressed with Arnold and Gaudreau. However, the thing about Kreider was that he had NHL tools (speed and size). So it isn't/wasn't a surprise that he was able to apply his skills at the next level.

Jankowski is similar - not in skill-set, but in the fact that he has some NHL tools (size, soft hands in tight). Jankowski may not be wowing people in the NCAA, but there is plenty of reason to be interested in his development, because of his tool-set (much like Kreider, though it's a different set of tools).

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by fotze

Just to cream some jeans here. 4th goal from Poirier last night. Credit to GoJetsGo in the other thread for the gif.

Needs to be quoted every half hour or more. That is some of the DIRTIEST dangles I've ever seen! Hot diggity dog!

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by strombad

People should also keep Brian Gionta in mind. If Johnny puts on 20-30 pounds he's going to be a more than capable NHL sized player. Gionta's career kind of completely fell off at a point, but in his prime he wasn't some crash and bang guy and he handled contact just fine.

I would not suggest anyone keep Brian Gionta in mind when thinking of Gaudreau. Completely different styles of play. Johnny Hockey will never have a physical game and it is ridiculous to suggest that will develop with some weight. It is also ridiculous to suggest Gaudreau will put on 20-30 pounds. That would be almost 20% of his body mass. That would be like saying Monahan should be able to pack on 40 pounds and still be an effective player. Johnny is what he is. He's not going to get much bigger or pack on a ton of weight. His metabolism just isn't going to allow that to happen.

[RyZ]

Im sure it has been opined previously, but I wonder what Jankowski would look like in the CHL right now. Would it help or hinder his development as apposed to the NCAA route? He likely wouldnt be playing in a program with such a defensive mindset (which isnt a bad thing), but his offensive numbers might look a whole lot better on the surface.

[King Theo]

Here is the link for all 4 of Poirier's goals.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REoH...layer_embedded

[dammage79]

Jankowski could produce more in almost any other school or chl team. At least I think. I feel the offense is there but it just isn't or cannot he utilized properly in Providence's system. I like the fact he is developing in a strong defensive system like providences. If he's going to make it in the NHL he needs that education to play sound defense in all three zones. And it seems like he getting that. Once he gets some pp time and some more gifted line mates I think we will see his numbers jump quite a bit.