08-01-2013, 03:52 PM
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#61
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!
WARNING: 'moon' -ing in progress
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Except that Moon is right in this case. Any analysis that puts the Senators ahead of the Blackhawks or Penguins is deeply flawed. They aren't likely to win their division, much less win the Presidents' Trophy.
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08-01-2013, 04:24 PM
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#62
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by #-3
I don't mind the methodology of trying to say in general team X did better then they should of, and team Y did worse than they should have. As a predictor it does not take into account player movement, development, or regression.
Trying to put his methodology to the test, I found.
the 15 luckiest teams 08/09, had a net change of -55 point in 09/10. 10 did worse
the 15 unluckiest teams 08/09, had a net change of 74 point in 09/10. 9 did better
the 15 luckiest teams 09/10, had a net change of -43 point in 10/11. 9 did worse
the 15 unluckiest teams 09/10, had a net change of 39 point in 10/11. 10 did better
the 15 luckiest teams 10/11, had a net change of -60 point in 11/12. 11 did worse
the 15 unluckiest teams 10/11, had a net change of 63 point in 11/12. 8 did better
the 15 luckiest teams 11/12, had a net change of -75 point in 12/13. 9 did worse
the 15 unluckiest teams 11/12, had a net change of 136 point in 12/13. 9 did better
* pro-rated the points to an 82 game season.
So historically about 66% of time he successfully predicts if a team will improve or regress. Not bad, but I think most of us could go about 60% just on gut feeling.
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If your gut feeling is as accurate as the average stock broker, you'll manage just over 50%.
Thing is, you don't make these predictions on gut feeling alone, so you can probably get close to 60% based on gut feelings as well as your knowledge of a teams additions and subtractions.
One thing to remember about these 'predictions' is that they don't take into account how much a team's quality improves or regresses from year to year, but only predicts how they would do if they otherwise stayed the same. A team that had a PDO could see a regression, but if overall team quality improves more than the PDO does, then they will still have more points.
It's difficult to determine how much the addition quality player improves the team as a whole until they actually play some games for their new team.
Last edited by sworkhard; 08-01-2013 at 04:27 PM.
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08-01-2013, 06:04 PM
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#63
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#1 Goaltender
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^ agree, I'm guessing a large number of the 1/3 teams that bucked the trend had a major shift with in a year of them bucking the trend.
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08-01-2013, 06:12 PM
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#64
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
Any insight to how this works with the top 10 luckiest and 10 unluckiest. Guess is that the middle teams would tend to stay the same.
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10 Luckiest teams y-o-y points differential -52, -67, -52, -113
10 Unluckiest teams y-o-y point differential 96, 56, 104, 180
5 Luckiest teams y-o-y points differential -61, -39, -27, -74
5 Unluckiest teams y-o-y point differential 56, 30, 55, 138
Number of the 10 luckiest teams that had fewer points the next season y-o-y. 7, 8, 8, 8.
Number of the 10 unluckiest teams that had more points the next season y-oy. 7, 7*, 8, 8,
Number of the 5 luckiest teams that had fewer points the next season y-o-y. 5, 4, 4, 4.
Number of the 5 unluckiest teams that had more points the next season y-oy. 4, 3*, 4, 4,
* Edmonton had not change in points year-over-year.
So it appears if you just don't look at the ten middle teams then he is 80% for predicting if a team will be better or worse the following season. Those stats are great after 4 years.
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"Win the Week"
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08-01-2013, 06:24 PM
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#65
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
Which stat are you using for luck. If it is straight PDO then this fits what the article was saying where he was taking 3 parts league average shooting and 1 part team shooting and 2 parts league SV% and 1 part team SV%.
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http://www.hockeyabstract.com/luck
I went here, and ranked the teams by the luck field. I just looked if the top half did in fact have a decrease in points the next season.
I did not weight the formula at all, so the first set of number I gave, it did not matter if you were the luckiest team or the 15th luckiest team. I counted you the same way.
I was just trying to gauge if he was effectively predicting that a due was due for an adjustment up or down.
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08-01-2013, 06:55 PM
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#66
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Calgary
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Take this for what it's worth, but my dad works with Rob's brother, who is a huge hockey fanatic in his own right. This guy talks to Rob a lot and they collaborate on office pools and things like that. He wins a disgusting amount of the hockey pools, and when he doesn't win he's usually close. He tends to suck at every pool that's not hockey iirc. This is very anecdotal, of course, but I have to believe the systems have something to them.
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08-01-2013, 09:15 PM
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#67
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Scoring Winger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!
WARNING: 'moon' -ing in progress
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The Following User Says Thank You to bucksmasher For This Useful Post:
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08-02-2013, 07:14 AM
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#68
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by #-3
http://www.hockeyabstract.com/luck
I went here, and ranked the teams by the luck field. I just looked if the top half did in fact have a decrease in points the next season.
I did not weight the formula at all, so the first set of number I gave, it did not matter if you were the luckiest team or the 15th luckiest team. I counted you the same way.
I was just trying to gauge if he was effectively predicting that a due was due for an adjustment up or down.
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That luck field was based on pdo. So I think that lends credibility to the article where they tempered the affect of PDO a bit.
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08-02-2013, 08:07 AM
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#69
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Income Tax Central
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Resolute 14
Except that Moon is right in this case. Any analysis that puts the Senators ahead of the Blackhawks or Penguins is deeply flawed. They aren't likely to win their division, much less win the Presidents' Trophy.
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Agreed. And, while the Leafs suck and I dont see them making the playoffs next year, second worst is a stretch.
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08-02-2013, 11:38 AM
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#70
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#1 Goaltender
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I know nothing is expected of the flames next year but the same thing could have been said of the blue jackets and Montreal this past year... Or the senators the year before. The common thing among these teams that turned it around quickly was goaltending... Say what u want about the young depth in their lineups, it was solid goaltending that turned them from bottom 5 teams to playoff contenders. Flames have lots of great goaltending prospects so they have a good chance to turn one of the into a solid starter
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08-02-2013, 01:33 PM
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#71
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Scoring Winger
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Calgary
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This argument is strictly based on shots directed vs. shots against on net. If we were going by that case, I guess an argument can be made that Taylor Hall is a top 5 player in the league and that RNH has improved from his rookie season since his CorsiRelQOC numbers have drastically improved at ES.
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Quote:
I would take Sequin 10 time out of 10 before I took Hall, I said it on draft day that drafting Hall over the TS was possibly one of the dumbest moves that Lowe made
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08-08-2013, 11:34 PM
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#72
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: I will never cheer for losses
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I hate the leafs but i think that next year they may be a decent team
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08-08-2013, 11:46 PM
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#73
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Lifetime Suspension
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Whenever you accumulate a group of players for a team that are young and new, and comprise most of that team, you really can't predict exactly how it will go. Many will assume, but that's all they can do. The Blue Jackets were supposed to do next to nothing, and have zero impact in the playoff race. The year before that the Senators were predicted to be the same, and just in the Beginning phase of a full on rebuild. Both cases the teams were counted out entirely. Here it's the same, but nothing is "impossible".
All you need is for a team of young, energetic guys to gel together unexpectedly, and most importantly your starting goaltender to get into a grove and string some wins. We have zero, absolutely zero idea what our two new guys are about. Berra a little, and he looked great, but the situations can't be compared. But it can happen whether its a team of Sedins, Crosbys and Ovechkins or a group of nobodies from nowhereville. It's happened before and will happen again.
If anything significant does happen with the team this year though, it'll be due to a strong team game. They have to win by committee, cause it's undeniable that we have a lack of true star power.
And I won't be surprised to see our dominance vs the Oil continue. If the latter portion of last year is any indication (the kids smoked em).
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