The Light at the End of the Tunnel: 2016 Flames

[Tinordi]

Alot of people banking on Jankowski. He needs to step up huge next season to even be close to the projections people are making. Not that he can't, he's young in his draft year and on a bad team, but he needs to show a whole lot more next season.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by FBI

That division is actually not looking as tough as it once was.. Anaheim should be trending down after epic collapse and fluke season, Van is getting older and trending down, SJ older and trending down.. Flames young and crappy but trending up.. Rather be there than some of the other teams.

uh, not sure why we're trending up...

If anything, we're still very clearly trending down. We haven't rounded that corner yet, and we likely won't begin rounding that corner until next summer.

We're a bad team with a not-great prospect pool. It is getting better, but it will need to become top-5 league-wide before we have effectively accomplished what we need to. It is no longer about acquiring prospects to build our pool into a mid-league level. We don't have a core that can be complimented with nice, good, mid-level prospects. We need elite level prospects to build a new core - and more specifically, an elite core.

Feaster has taken steps towards doing this, but we still have a (relatively) long road ahead of us. Yes, there are homeruns that can be hit during the process - but as an organization, it is a fools game to plan to get struck by lightning. There is plenty of work to be done before we can begin to think of ourselves (The Flames), as trending upwards.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by moon

Turris and Hodgson are top prospects?

Who said anything about top prospects? They are still very good prospects.The flames would be doing back flips if they could be guaranteed players like those with the Pitt pick.

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

uh, not sure why we're trending up...

If anything, we're still very clearly trending down. We haven't rounded that corner yet, and we likely won't begin rounding that corner until next summer.

We're a bad team with a not-great prospect pool. It is getting better, but it will need to become top-5 league-wide before we have effectively accomplished what we need to. It is no longer about acquiring prospects to build our pool into a mid-league level. We don't have a core that can be complimented with nice, good, mid-level prospects. We need elite level prospects to build a new core - and more specifically, an elite core.

Feaster has taken steps towards doing this, but we still have a (relatively) long road ahead of us. Yes, there are homeruns that can be hit during the process - but as an organization, it is a fools game to plan to get struck by lightning. There is plenty of work to be done before we can begin to think of ourselves (The Flames), as trending upwards.

Doesn't the above suggest we are trending up? If things are getting better, regardless of how slowly, the trend is up.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

Doesn't the above suggest we are trending up? If things are getting better, regardless of how slowly, the trend is up.

In a bubble, yes. But the team needs to be looked at outside of the bubble with the rest of the league as comparison. We've been progressively getting worse season after season, so we're trending down. While our own personal prospect pool is better than it was 2 years ago, so is every other team's (unless they have been deficit spending to an incredible degree - and the teams doing that, generally have a core that we as Flames fans could only dream of having).

When looking at the team in a bubble, ignoring the rest of the league, things are getting better. For the team to actually begin trending up, they need to begin to do things better than the rest of the league. They have yet to do that.

[moon]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

Who said anything about top prospects? They are still very good prospects.The flames would be doing back flips if they could be guaranteed players like those with the Pitt pick.

EE said it in the first line of his post two which Blankall replied with the examples of Turris and Hodgson and then mentioned it again in the same post:

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Teams don't want to trade top prospects under 25 as we clearly saw in the Bouwmeester and Iginla deals. The four prospects from the (Penguins especially) were spare parts and AHL roster filler. The Flames aren't going to get a 25 year old top prospect for a mid to late 1st round pick. Teams in salary cap trouble will want to unload high paid veteran players not their prospects.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

Doesn't the above suggest we are trending up? If things are getting better, regardless of how slowly, the trend is up.

Not really, you get better picks as you drop lower in the standings, this doesn't mean your management or scouting is any better, which is the only way the tream turns around long term, right now I see the Flames as having another year or two of dropping to do.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

Doesn't the above suggest we are trending up? If things are getting better, regardless of how slowly, the trend is up.

The prospect pool getting better doesn't mean the team is trending up.

This team has finished 10th, 16th, 17th, 17th, 25th the last 5 years with it looking likely to finish worse than that next year. That is trending down.

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by moon

The prospect pool getting better doesn't mean the team is trending up.

This team has finished 10th, 16th, 17th, 17th, 25th the last 5 years with it looking likely to finish worse than that next year. That is trending down.

Isolated metric though. Yes, we are trending down if you want to look at the standings. One could argue that we are closer to our next playoff spot today than we were lets say, we were in 2011. We might be lower in the standings than then, but we were driving away from 8th. An argument could be that we've finally gotten to the end of the road and we are now turned around and driving back towards 8th. To me that makes us closer and trending up.

Agreed though, time will tell, and to someone elses point, all of this only matters in relativity to other teams, but I feel better today about our direction than I did at the start of this year.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

The Flames are in for a couple of hard years with a light at the end of the tunnel, I think that with some of the posts here there are a number of people who are heavily banking on prospects to come in and make an immediate and positive contribution to the team. The vast majority of prospects take 2-3 years to develop into bubble NHL players, a couple years in junior/europe, a year in the AHL and then break in sheltered positions on the third line with spot duty on the second line. There are very few players from the 2011 draft or the 2012 draft who have played in the NHL. You start seeing more players from 2010 who broke into the league this past year and those in 2009 having just played in their second NHL season.

Right now the Flames should be looking for 2015-16 for their young players to be making their way into the league with a 2-3 year development curve, I anticipate that if all goes well the Flames will be contenders for the playoffs in 2018 and the cup in 2020ish.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by moon

EE said it in the first line of his post two which Blankall replied with the examples of Turris and Hodgson and then mentioned it again in the same post:

Understand now, did not read EE's post. To me the flames will not get top prospects for the Pitt draft pick, nor do i think they will get as good a prospect as a Turris or Hodgson for the Pitt pick. Posters need to temper their expectations on what kind of return the Pitt pick would bring in. I still hope Feaster uses all 3 picks to draft players, but i just can't see that happening from what he has said in past interviews.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

Understand now, did not read EE's post. To me the flames will not get top prospects for the Pitt draft pick, nor do i think they will get as good a prospect as a Turris or Hodgson for the Pitt pick. Posters need to temper their expectations on what kind of return the Pitt pick would bring in. I still hope Feaster uses all 3 picks to draft players, but i just can't see that happening from what he has said in past interviews.

Agreed.

If you go and look at recent draft history, the one thing that is very apparent? Outside of the top 10 (or even top 5), the NHL draft is a complete crapshoot.

Yes, you could end up with a Mike Green at 29th overall, or you could end up with a Leland Irving at 26, a Brian Boyle at 26, an Eric Fehr at 18, an Anthony Stewart at 25, a Corey Perry at 28, a Chet Pickard at 18, a Jordan Eberle at 22, a Rob Schremp at 25

The NHL draft is riddled with busts. There are no guarantees.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

Understand now, did not read EE's post. To me the flames will not get top prospects for the Pitt draft pick, nor do i think they will get as good a prospect as a Turris or Hodgson for the Pitt pick. Posters need to temper their expectations on what kind of return the Pitt pick would bring in. I still hope Feaster uses all 3 picks to draft players, but i just can't see that happening from what he has said in past interviews.

I hope he uses the picks wisely & lands players with huge upside. Save that, if he does deal any picks it had better be in conjunction with other assets to acquire top young talent. There's no point wasting assets to bring in bit part players.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by moon

Turris and Hodgson are top prospects?

I would say they are very good prospects and I would be pretty happy if the Flames came out of this draft with players of their skills although being the greedy fan I am I would hope for a more elite player with the 6th pick.

They aren't a good argument to my original post as they both were traded because they had disagreements with management. I know the Coyotes didn't really want to trade Turris but it was clear he was never going to play for them.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Agreed.

If you go and look at recent draft history, the one thing that is very apparent? Outside of the top 10 (or even top 5), the NHL draft is a complete crapshoot.

Yes, you could end up with a Mike Green at 29th overall, or you could end up with a Leland Irving at 26, a Brian Boyle at 26, an Eric Fehr at 18, an Anthony Stewart at 25, a Corey Perry at 28, a Chet Pickard at 18, a Jordan Eberle at 22, a Rob Schremp at 25

The NHL draft is riddled with busts. There are no guarantees.

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=127451

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Not really, you get better picks as you drop lower in the standings, this doesn't mean your management or scouting is any better, which is the only way the tream turns around long term, right now I see the Flames as having another year or two of dropping to do.

The Flames need at least one more season like this one to kickstart the upward trend. Trade Cammalleri for hopefully a 1st round pick at next season's deadline and any other veteran players that may be attractive to playoff teams. I kind of hope that Iginla pays off for the Penguins if only to keep the rental market looking attractive to cup contenders.

The talent level in the organization is still amongst the bottom feeders in the league and one draft isn't going to be able to turn things around but another year of multiple 1st round picks will do a lot towards building a solid foundation of young talented players. Lets just hope that for once the Flames aren't the Flames and make all these picks count unlike the miserable drafts in the young guns years and the Sutter years.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

Isolated metric though. Yes, we are trending down if you want to look at the standings. One could argue that we are closer to our next playoff spot today than we were lets say, we were in 2011. We might be lower in the standings than then, but we were driving away from 8th. An argument could be that we've finally gotten to the end of the road and we are now turned around and driving back towards 8th. To me that makes us closer and trending up.

Agreed though, time will tell, and to someone elses point, all of this only matters in relativity to other teams, but I feel better today about our direction than I did at the start of this year.

I am not sure what other metric you would use than standings. I guess their play has got worse, their talent is worse, their outlook for next year is worse, their outlook for the year after is worse. So those possible metrics also work to show we are trending down.

I don't see us hitting bottom yet or getting closer to 8th than we were in 2011 at all.

If Anaheim, SJ and Vancouver are all "trending down" (Anaheim especially) as FBI stated then there is no way I can see how the Flames can be trending up.

[Tinordi]

moon's bang on

If you think this is the nadir of the Flames and that we're going to be better next year you should make an appointment for a CT scan.

[FakenHaken]

Originally Posted by moon

I am not sure what other metric you would use than standings. I guess their play has got worse, their talent is worse, their outlook for next year is worse, their outlook for the year after is worse. So those possible metrics also work to show we are trending down.

I don't see us hitting bottom yet or getting closer to 8th than we were in 2011 at all.

If Anaheim, SJ and Vancouver are all "trending down" (Anaheim especially) as FBI stated then there is no way I can see how the Flames can be trending up.

So you are saying there is a chance for McDavid.

[Hockey_Ninja]

Originally Posted by FakenHaken

So you are saying there is a chance for McDavid.

I sure hope so. We could use a new superstar Canadian talent to build around.