What becomes of Cervenka?

[Deelow]

Originally Posted by ma-skis.com

sometimes I wonder what the appeal of the NHL has on average professional skilled european players. Is playing against the best the most important, or just playing more?

Safer air travel.

[Tyler]

Great cities, first class travel and accommodations, exceptional training and facilities and the prestige of playing in the best league in the world

[dying4acup]

Guaranteed contracts

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

I was talking about wingers, which is also where I feel Horak should play. I think our top 3 centers next year will be Stajan, Backlund and either a UFA, 2013 draft pick or Reinhart.

My bad. I saw top 9 and assumed we were talking about all forwards. I assumed you were considering Backs, hence the green text.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

Does nobody think Backlund will be re-signed? Backs has been our best forward in the last 2-3 weeks and if he continues to progress, could be a 1B/2nd line center for this team going forward. To me the lineup already looks like this for the start of next season:

Tanguay-Backlund-Cammalleri
Baertschi-Horak-Hudler
Glencross-Stajan-Stempniak
McGrattan/Bouma-Reinhart-Jackman

your lineup seems reasonable with the players currently under contract.


The Flames however played much better the last 10 games of the season..... not counting the last 3 where they finally put in a line-up that looked like an exhibition game line-up.... when they put tougher players playing with the smaller skilled guys.

So in the top 2 lines

Tanguay 6-1 195
Backlund 6-0 200
Cammalleri 5-9 183
Baertschi 5-10 186
Horak 6-0 180
Hudler 5-9 178


average just under 5-11 187 lbs.


Eberle 6-0 185
Gagner 5-10 191
RNH 6-0 171
Hall 6-1 194
yakapov 5-11 185
Hemsky 6-0 184

average just under 6-0 183


kane 5-11 181
Bolland 6-0 184
Sharp 6-1 199
Hossa 6-1 210
Toews 6-2 208
Saad 6-1 203

Average 6-1/2 198


Cosby 5-11 200
Malkin 6-3 212
Neal 6-2 215
Iginla 6-1 207
Kunitz 6-0 193
Dupuis 6-1 200

Average 6-1 204

and the Stanley Cup Champs LA kings

Carter 6-4 199
Richards 5-11 199
Brown 6-0 204
Williams 6-1 191
Kopitar 6-3 225
Penner 6-4 242

Average just under 6-2 210


Spot the trend if you can.


The Flames (and Oilers) need 2-3 guys that are average sized on the good teams in their top 6. No amount of talent can overcome this.


That is why Glencross at 6-1 200 is the Flame's most valuable, un-tradeable forward.

If Cervenka, a UFA, is stupid enough to re-sign with the Flames where he has the absolute worst chance of success (outside of Edmonton), then he is so stupid that I wouldn't want him on the team.


The same goes for Hudler...... why would a tiny forward sign on to a tiny team when he has other better options?

[Tinordi]

Let him walk, he's barely an NHL player, would take a spot of someone else with something more to prove or someone we can develop.

[Enoch Root]

Players have bad years - it happens.

Flames are in rebuild mode and Cervenka is a prospect in my mind. Is he 19? No. But he is someone who might become a decent NHLer and we already have him here.

We obviously won't have cap constraints, and I doubt very much that we'll have constraints with the 50 contract limit this year, so it is an absolute no brainer to give him another chance (assuming he is interested).

Upside: he proves he is the player they thought he was.

Secondary upside: he becomes a tradable asset at the deadline (or his wife/fiance/partner moves to Calgary!)

Downside: none

[BACKCHECK!!!]

I think he signs with an eastern conference team, and puts up 50 points next season.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Players have bad years - it happens.

Flames are in rebuild mode and Cervenka is a prospect in my mind. Is he 19? No. But he is someone who might become a decent NHLer and we already have him here.

We obviously won't have cap constraints, and I doubt very much that we'll have constraints with the 50 contract limit this year, so it is an absolute no brainer to give him another chance (assuming he is interested).

Upside: he proves he is the player they thought he was.

Secondary upside: he becomes a tradable asset at the deadline (or his wife/fiance/partner moves to Calgary!)

Downside: none

Downside:
*Cervenka is 27 years old(so yes not 19), which means that by the time the Flames will be competitive he will be around 30+.
*A long contract is too risky, which means you will sign him to two years at the most. As a result, by the time he outperforms the contract you either have to give him a substantial raise or let him walk.
*We need to improve team defense, and we already have too many small one dimensional offensive players on the roster.
*Cervenka was a healthy scratch on many nights. I don't think the coach is interested in what he brings.
*Cervenka will most likely have to occupy a top 9 spot, which could be given to a (younger) prospect.

Bottom line:
I think Cervenka is a good player, and hopefully he improves... I just don't think there is a spot on the Flames for him next season.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

Downside:
*Cervenka is 27 years old(so yes not 19), which means that by the time the Flames will be competitive he will be around 30+.
*A long contract is too risky, which means you will sign him to two years at the most. As a result, by the time he outperforms the contract you either have to give him a substantial raise or let him walk.
*We need to improve team defense, and we already have too many small one dimensional offensive players on the roster.
*Cervenka was a healthy scratch on many nights. I don't think the coach is interested in what he brings.
*Cervenka will most likely have to occupy a top 9 spot, which could be given to a (younger) prospect.

Bottom line:
I think Cervenka is a good player, and hopefully he improves... I just don't think there is a spot on the Flames for him next season.

Downside? That would be a great outcome.

And if he was going to require a big raise that you didn't want to give him, you trade him for another asset.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Downside? That would be a great outcome.

And if he was going to require a big raise that you didn't want to give him, you trade him for another asset.

I think that a team wouldn't give an asset away for Cervenka even if he performs a little better, because he is still unproven. I don't think we will get more than a third round pick for him because there are always bigger fish come trade deadline.

I mention it as a downside, because he would be a UFA instead of RFA at the end of his contract. This way Calgary will put time and effort into developing an asset for someone else. To me it seems like a lot of effort for the possibility of gaining an extra third rounder.

I also think that he wouldn't have enough opportunity to greatly improve on his numbers based on the current roster. He wouldn't have very much PP time because you have Tanguay, Cammalleri, Stempniak, Hudler, Backlund, and Baertschi ahead of him.

In my mind there's about 75% chance that we will get a similar player to what we had this year. A player that is mostly invisible when he is not on the scoresheet, and we already have too many of those. Not to mention that 11 of his 17 pts came against non playoff teams.

[Enoch Root]

Let's say that your 75% comment is accurate...

Would you be interested in getting a free 2nd round pick? Or put another way, would you throw away a 2nd round pick?

Because there is about a 25% chance that a 2nd rounder becomes a decent NHLer.

I see no reason not to take those same odds with Cervenka, since it costs us nothing.

Anyway, I have covered this from my point of view, I give you the last word.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Let's say that your 75% comment is accurate...

Would you be interested in getting a free 2nd round pick? Or put another way, would you throw away a 2nd round pick?

Because there is about a 25% chance that a 2nd rounder becomes a decent NHLer.

I see no reason not to take those same odds with Cervenka, since it costs us nothing.

Anyway, I have covered this from my point of view, I give you the last word.

Interesting take on things. The main difference between a 2nd round pick and a UFA, is that once that player is developed(lets say 25% chance) you get to keep that player for another 3-5 years at a cap friendly rate.

I only see Cervenka as a stopgap, and thus his roster spot that would be more valuable with someone else in it. That roster spot is no small cost especially when it comes to developing players. Remember Amonte, Dawes, or Friesen more no risk players.