Tough Stretch to mean the season (excel file attached)

[Northendzone]

Bingo, spreadsheet needs to be reworked to allow for an ROR variable.

[Northendzone]

Bingo, forget about the variable. Lets all keep calm and chive on.....

[Bingo]

bump ...

I had two points in the three games (Minny, Colorado and Vancouver) and they have 3 so I'm one point pessimistic so far on my 2-5-2 prediction?

Anyone way off already?

[Loyal and True]

Originally Posted by Loyal and True

Assuming we don't suffer any more key injuries...

Calgary can win next 3 games (@Col, then home vs Vcr and SJ). Vcr is in a mini-slump and will be playing a BTB after Saturday night vs LA. SJ also a bit of a slump and will be playing BTB after Tues night @ Vcr.

Then Cgy guts out a 2-2-1 record in next 5. Lose in OT to ducks. Lose BTB @LA. Win once in LA. Then split 2 home games vs. Det and Nsh.

Over a week later and I still can't believe we lost that game in Colorado after 3-0 lead and then 4-2 to start 3rd period.

I still think they go 1-1-1 in SoCal, but now I am hoping we continue the home win streak by beating Detroit and Nashville... to make up for that Colorado debacle.

Looking at the last 24 games... 10 of them are against four "bottom" teams CBJ, Edm, Col and Nsh. Those teams are all .500 or worse right now. Hopefully we don't waste those points. I am hoping .750 or better in those 10 games (4 Home, 6 Road). So maybe 15 points (7-2-1). If we can't do that, then we simply don't deserve playoffs.

9 of the last 24 are against the six "middle of the pack" teams that we want to beat out for a 6/7/8 seed. So far we are .636 against those teams (6-3-2) and need to keep rolling (5 Home, 4 Road). 11 points (5-3-1) would be .611.

Only 5 games of last 24 are against the four "top" teams Chi, Ana, LA and Vcr. Assuming we can go 1-1-1 on the current trip than our record would be 2-4-3 against those teams. We would be done with LA at that point. If we can keep that modest .400 pace against top teams, then we would get 4 points out of the 5 most difficult games left (2 Home, 3 Road).

So my rose-coloured crystal ball says 30 points in final 24 games. End up with 55 points after 48 games. That point total might get 6th but more likely 7th or 8th.

Then again, I still think Vcr could tailspin further, kind of like Calgary did in January 2010. Forces knee-jerk reaction and AV is replaced by Bowness on interim basis. Canucks finish 9th. Schneider demands trade in offseason

[Loyal and True]

Well it sucks that we earned zero points in last 3 games. I was expecting 3 points.

I'm looking over the difficult 9 game stretch that Bingo put forward. I see a lot of people predicted 2-5-2 or 2-4-3 etc, and only a homer could think .500 possible. Two more losses/OT losses and many of those projections will be bang on.

However I am cheering for 2 home wins against Detroit and Nashville.

That would put us 4-4-1 over the stretch.

22 games left to go 12-6-4 or 11-5-6.

Question #1 is: Can it be done?

Yes, in my opinion. 12-6-4 or 11-5-6 can be done by almost any team in this league. Teams go on runs all the time. Flames have done it several times in last few years, and other "middle of the pack" teams do as well. Keep in mind that this is a relatively small number of games. It is possible, not probable, but that's why we play the games.


Question #2: Is it worth the effort? To me, that is the 8 million dollar question. I consider a few things.

-One thing I learned over this stretch is that any playoff series against Anaheim or LA would be pretty much impossible for this Flames team to win. I think we match up better against Vcr, Chi, or Min. We're obviously underdogs but I don't mind that.

-I think at the deadline we may trade away a player or two for a couple of picks, but I don't think it will be as exciting as many hope. I just think it is difficult to make really big deals at the deadline. All hinges on what contenders are prepared to offer for each player.

-Obviously we keep our picks unless you are getting 22 year old stud centres in return.

-I realize many will hope that we continue to lose games, for a number of reasons. Sorry I can't bring myself to do it.

-If we lose in spite of our efforts, I will accept that there will be a silver lining in the form of higher draft pick, trade deadline opportunities to build for the future, etc. The armchair GM understands that these things do accelerate the rebuilding process... or at least increase the odds of making one successful draft selection.

-But a die-hard fan can still hope to make the playoffs while also making quality selections on draft day. Getzlaf, Richards, Kesler are just a few of many examples of top players (legit #1 Centres, even) that find their way to the #20 to #25 draft positions. Making the playoffs and building through the draft are not mutually exclusive. A top notch organization should aim to achieve both. I remain optimistic that Weisbrod's influence over the process can lead to success at the draft.

In my opinion, it is worth the effort to make the playoffs, even 8th.

[Caged Great]

I'm on track with what I predicted thus far overall (I thought we'd lose to vancouver, and beat LA once)

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Loyal and True

Well it sucks that we earned zero points in last 3 games. I was expecting 3 points.

I'm looking over the difficult 9 game stretch that Bingo put forward. I see a lot of people predicted 2-5-2 or 2-4-3 etc, and only a homer could think .500 possible. Two more losses/OT losses and many of those projections will be bang on.

However I am cheering for 2 home wins against Detroit and Nashville.

That would put us 4-4-1 over the stretch.

22 games left to go 12-6-4 or 11-5-6.

Question #1 is: Can it be done?

Yes, in my opinion. 12-6-4 or 11-5-6 can be done by almost any team in this league. Teams go on runs all the time. Flames have done it several times in last few years, and other "middle of the pack" teams do as well. Keep in mind that this is a relatively small number of games. It is possible, not probable, but that's why we play the games.


Question #2: Is it worth the effort? To me, that is the 8 million dollar question. I consider a few things.

-One thing I learned over this stretch is that any playoff series against Anaheim or LA would be pretty much impossible for this Flames team to win. I think we match up better against Vcr, Chi, or Min. We're obviously underdogs but I don't mind that.

-I think at the deadline we may trade away a player or two for a couple of picks, but I don't think it will be as exciting as many hope. I just think it is difficult to make really big deals at the deadline. All hinges on what contenders are prepared to offer for each player.

-Obviously we keep our picks unless you are getting 22 year old stud centres in return.

-I realize many will hope that we continue to lose games, for a number of reasons. Sorry I can't bring myself to do it.

-If we lose in spite of our efforts, I will accept that there will be a silver lining in the form of higher draft pick, trade deadline opportunities to build for the future, etc. The armchair GM understands that these things do accelerate the rebuilding process... or at least increase the odds of making one successful draft selection.

-But a die-hard fan can still hope to make the playoffs while also making quality selections on draft day. Getzlaf, Richards, Kesler are just a few of many examples of top players (legit #1 Centres, even) that find their way to the #20 to #25 draft positions. Making the playoffs and building through the draft are not mutually exclusive. A top notch organization should aim to achieve both. I remain optimistic that Weisbrod's influence over the process can lead to success at the draft.

In my opinion, it is worth the effort to make the playoffs, even 8th.

I'm not sure how you think the question #1 can be done?

The flames play 9 of 15 games on the road in April. The flames have one of the worst away records in the league (3-6-2).

[Loyal and True]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

I'm not sure how you think the question #1 can be done?

The flames play 9 of 15 games on the road in April. The flames have one of the worst away records in the league (3-6-2).

The quantity of road games certainly adds another degree of difficulty.

We started the year 3-1-1 on the road, and now lost 4 straight. I guess we can expect streaks and slumps. I could see us winning 4 out of next 5 roads games, because of who we are playing.

9 of our 13 road games are against the #7 to #14 seeds.

We play in Chicago twice. The first time, Hawks are playing night before against LA and there is possible chance of letdown on the BTB after a big game against another contender. 2nd game in Chicago is the last game of season, and Blackhawks may have nothing to play for with the playoffs set to begin.

I am not saying it would not be easy, but there is enough softness in that road schedule to suggest it is not as impossible as it might seem.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Loyal and True

22 games left to go 12-6-4 or 11-5-6.

Question #1 is: Can it be done?

Yes, in my opinion. 12-6-4 or 11-5-6 can be done by almost any team in this league. Teams go on runs all the time. Flames have done it several times in last few years, and other "middle of the pack" teams do as well. Keep in mind that this is a relatively small number of games. It is possible, not probable, but that's why we play the games.

That's only 50 points. 8 and 9th place teams are running at a 54 point pace. So unless the goal is the worst possible spot again, it's not adequate. It's also almost a .20 point per game increase over what we have done to this point. It's not possible for 22 games for this group.

[Trojan97]

Originally Posted by Loyal and True

The quantity of road games certainly adds another degree of difficulty.

We started the year 3-1-1 on the road, and now lost 4 straight. I guess we can expect streaks and slumps. I could see us winning 4 out of next 5 roads games, because of who we are playing.

9 of our 13 road games are against the #7 to #14 seeds.

We play in Chicago twice. The first time, Hawks are playing night before against LA and there is possible chance of letdown on the BTB after a big game against another contender. 2nd game in Chicago is the last game of season, and Blackhawks may have nothing to play for with the playoffs set to begin.

I am not saying it would not be easy, but there is enough softness in that road schedule to suggest it is not as impossible as it might seem.

Just curious what your odds of this happening are. You can't actually believe that, after everything that has happened the last few seasons, this team actually has a chance in hell of pulling something like that off.

[Loyal and True]

Originally Posted by nik-

That's only 50 points. 8 and 9th place teams are running at a 54 point pace. So unless the goal is the worst possible spot again, it's not adequate. It's also almost a .20 point per game increase over what we have done to this point. It's not possible for 22 games for this group.

Wrong. You are always rushing to your conclusions. You misread my post. My scenario is specifically contingent on us winning next 2 games at home.

22+4+28 = 54 points not 50 points

Anyways I am glad I now have your authority to confirm what is not possible for 22 games into the future.

Such a run could never happen for this group:

Jan 12, 2012: Flames were 13-7-4 over 24 games after previous record of 8-12-1.
Mar 15, 2012: Flames were 16-6-7 over 29 games after previous record of 18-19-5
Feb 20, 2011: Flames were 17-4-5 over 26 games after previous record of 14-18-3
Nov 30, 2009: Flames were 17-6-3 over 26 games before slumping and ultimately missing the playoffs.

Well, maybe these runs can happen somewhat frequently over time (?!?) I could find other occurrences of this for other teams that are far from extraordinary.

[nik-]

Sheesh, I misread, don't be so sensitive.

[drPepper1]

You forgot to add "Stanley Cup Champions" on your poll

[StrykerSteve]

Originally Posted by Loyal and True

Wrong. You are always rushing to your conclusions. You misread my post. My scenario is specifically contingent on us winning next 2 games at home.

22+4+28 = 54 points not 50 points

Anyways I am glad I now have your authority to confirm what is not possible for 22 games into the future.

Such a run could never happen for this group:

Jan 12, 2012: Flames were 13-7-4 over 24 games after previous record of 8-12-1.
Mar 15, 2012: Flames were 16-6-7 over 29 games after previous record of 18-19-5
Feb 20, 2011: Flames were 17-4-5 over 26 games after previous record of 14-18-3
Nov 30, 2009: Flames were 17-6-3 over 26 games before slumping and ultimately missing the playoffs.

Well, maybe these runs can happen somewhat frequently over time (?!?) I could find other occurrences of this for other teams that are far from extraordinary.

You know what all of those extraordinary runs had in common? They all resulted in a lower draft position while still failing to make the playoffs.

Do you really want to see that happen for a 4th year in a row? I sure don't.

[Matty81]

I think it's already reached the point where any winning streak ultimately puts the club further away from winning the Stanley Cup which is why Feaster and co's public comments are so frustrating. Even with a fantastic say 17-7 run to make the playoffs, not only will the team be worse in two years because of the loss of draft position and any trade income from dealing vets, they will face the Hawks or Kings and get pulverized. The odds of the Flames winning the cup are almost completely non-existent.

The handful late firsts and mid level prospects they'd get for Iginla, Cammalleri and Stempniak aren't anywhere near as important as the draft position though, especially in a draft like this one with so many amazing prospects in the top 7 or 8. The value difference between Anthony Mantha and Nathan MacKinnon is probably greater than what any of our players would bring in via trade.

[Loyal and True]

Originally Posted by Trojan97

Just curious what your odds of this happening are. You can't actually believe that, after everything that has happened the last few seasons, this team actually has a chance in hell of pulling something like that off.

The probability is very low. I would not bet a significant amount of money on it, unless I was prepared to lose it.

But the possibility exists. I have seen many teams go .625 over 22 games, regardless of their "playoff worthiness".

With every subsequent loss, the odds get infinitely more slim. My opinion is that, if Caged Great is correct in his prediction that the Flames lose next two games, the odds become so small that only an immediate 8 game win streak would make up for the 5 consecutive losses. I don't remember the last time a mediocre team won 8 straight games, but I know it is far, far more unlikely than a .625 run over 22 games. But hey I am a fanboy who will still cheer for the 8 wins and then accept defeat and move on to the trade deadline.

Likewise, a winning streak at this time would significantly increase the probability to a more palatable level, but we would still not likely be a favorite to make the playoffs. I accept that.

Do we insist that an event must have favourable odds as a precondition for it to ever occur?

The funny thing is, "everything that has happened over the last few seasons" actually demonstrates that a streak can happen over a span of 20+ games.

I know. This team drives me insane.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Loyal and True

The probability is very low. I would not bet a significant amount of money on it, unless I was prepared to lose it.

But the possibility exists. I have seen many teams go .625 over 22 games, regardless of their "playoff worthiness".

With every subsequent loss, the odds get infinitely more slim. My opinion is that, if Caged Great is correct in his prediction that the Flames lose next two games, the odds become so small that only an immediate 8 game win streak would make up for the 5 consecutive losses. I don't remember the last time a mediocre team won 8 straight games, but I know it is far, far more unlikely than a .625 run over 22 games. But hey I am a fanboy who will still cheer for the 8 wins and then accept defeat and move on to the trade deadline.

Likewise, a winning streak at this time would significantly increase the probability to a more palatable level, but we would still not likely be a favorite to make the playoffs. I accept that.

Do we insist that an event must have favourable odds as a precondition for it to ever occur?

The funny thing is, "everything that has happened over the last few seasons" actually demonstrates that a streak can happen over a span of 20+ games.

I know. This team drives me insane.

Ha. Maybe with the short season, they can go on the run without enough time for the following late season collapse.

[Loyal and True]

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

You know what all of those extraordinary runs had in common? They all resulted in a lower draft position while still failing to make the playoffs.

Do you really want to see that happen for a 4th year in a row? I sure don't.

Your response is a fair answer to the 2nd question I raised, "Is it worth it?"

My counter to this is that guys like Kesler, Getzlaf, Richards and many others get drafted late in the first round (of a deep draft) and they are franchise players you can build an organization around. You just have to be good at drafting.

If we cannot draft properly without missing the playoffs or tanking, shouldn't we fire our scouts? Why is Todd Button still here, anyway? I am hoping that Weisbrod calls the shots.

[Loyal and True]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Ha. Maybe with the short season, they can go on the run without enough time for the following late season collapse.

Yes!!! Rock Solid Plan!!!

[Loyal and True]

Originally Posted by Matty81

I think it's already reached the point where any winning streak ultimately puts the club further away from winning the Stanley Cup which is why Feaster and co's public comments are so frustrating. Even with a fantastic say 17-7 run to make the playoffs, not only will the team be worse in two years because of the loss of draft position and any trade income from dealing vets, they will face the Hawks or Kings and get pulverized. The odds of the Flames winning the cup are almost completely non-existent.

The handful late firsts and mid level prospects they'd get for Iginla, Cammalleri and Stempniak aren't anywhere near as important as the draft position though, especially in a draft like this one with so many amazing prospects in the top 7 or 8. The value difference between Anthony Mantha and Nathan MacKinnon is probably greater than what any of our players would bring in via trade.

If there is no win streak (most probable outcome) then the silver lining is quite acceptable this year. I think we would have to throw our games-in-hand in order to get top 7 or 8 this year. Or win the lottery.

If this is a deep draft, can't we select a Giroux, Parise, Bergeron, Weber, Eberle, Karlsson, Franzen, Lucic, Hanzal, Krejci, Perry, Brown, Filppula etc.?

This assumes we are capable of drafting talent.