Let's Talk About: T.J. Brodie

[Mitch]

Originally Posted by Fire

No one is going to sign him to an offer sheet. Brodie hasn't done enough to deserve a high value offer sheet. No one is going to potential give up a first rounder in compensation to acquire him.

IMO Brodie will max out as a 2nd pairing defenseman, which is fine.

Brodie is a 2nd pairing D-man, right now.

[freakinsaprikin]

Hard to predict what the ceiling is for Brodie, but I think he has surpassed any expectations one might have for a 4th round draft pick.

[Ryan Coke]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

The kid is good but he's not going to be an elite guy.

Why not?

Not saying he is going to be for sure, but I am really impressed at his progress. He is showing really good defensive ability, and his offensive game will grow every year. He has been reminding me a bit of Dan Boyle. I also like the fact he has a bit of an edge to his game.

Of course it is easy to say someone won't be elite, because of course the odds are that will be correct. But to say it so definitively when he is showing reasons that he could be is too limiting.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Ryan Coke

Of course it is easy to say someone won't be elite, because of course the odds are that will be correct. But to say it so definitively when he is showing reasons that he could be is too limiting.

I would say he isn't showing any reasons why he could be elite. He is doing much better than a 4th rounder would be expected and having a nice season but he isn't showing anything to indicate that he will be elite.

[Bingo]

I guess it depends what you mean by elite ...

My expectations of him have grown a lot in this season, first by his play in the AHL, and then by his early season NHL work. He hat a rut, then took off again when Bouwemeester was traded.

If elite means Norris finalist then probably not. (there are only 3)
If elite means first or second all star teams then probably not (there are only 4)
If elite means top pairing defenseman then yeah I think he will be (there are 60)

[moon]

I would say elite is at most 20 guys in the league and probably a lot less if I looked over the whole list of NHLers.

For me an elite guy would be in the running for Canadian Olympic teams, in the running/consideration for All-Star teams pretty much every year and a guy that could reasonably win the Norris.

I don't see Brodie ever being at that level, and there is nothing wrong with that. With the right partner he may be able to be the 2nd guy on a good team but that seems to be the likely ceiling he has.

[Tinordi]

He looks like a career 3/4 guy.

[868904]

I think the kid has played great. His last game against Colorado was very impressive, he looked like a man against boys, which I know isn't saying much since the Avs suck, but the fakes and the hesitations he was using to elude forecheckers and backcheckers was astounding.

I don't really know what his ceiling is but I know that a few years ago Flames brass (I think it was Playfair) said that Brodie's ceiling was Duncan Keith and I haven't seen anything to suggest that he can't become that type of player. I think at this stage, Brodie is a very similar player to Cam Fowler, who many consider one of the best young defencemen in the game.

[Tinordi]

I must be watching a different Brodie. He's far from solid, he may grow into a poised defenceman but he's shakey out there. Makes bad reads, poor passes, inconsistent defensive zone play. All that is fine and to be expected but based on how I see him, overcoming those warts alone would project him to be a 3/4 guy. Just don't see the pedigree there to be a top pairing defenceman. I think his ceiling is somewhere higher than Leopold.

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

A year ago I would've said he looks like a 3/4 guy.

I don't want my vision of Brodie to be impeded by how he looks on a bad team, but I can't help but see a top pairing guy in him.

The kid has a knack for getting out of would-be sticky situations on the ice. 90% of the time he makes the right play. Not only that but the kid's got Bouwmeester-like stamina. He doesn't get rattled easily.

He's only 22 and I think he's a major piece in the rebuild. I think the only thing I'd like to see out of him more is some offense. I mean, it's not like he doesn't try offensively, but I'd like to see more points out of him.

[Tinordi]

I don't really know what his ceiling is but I know that a few years ago Flames brass (I think it was Playfair) said that Brodie's ceiling was Duncan Keith and I haven't seen anything to suggest that he can't become that type of player.

Ugh.

Duncan Keith? I know we're all fans here but yesterday we were comparing Backlund to Kesler now we're saying Brodie is the next Keith?

Seriously?

[moon]

Originally Posted by 868904

I don't really know what his ceiling is but I know that a few years ago Flames brass (I think it was Playfair) said that Brodie's ceiling was Duncan Keith and I haven't seen anything to suggest that he can't become that type of player. I think at this stage, Brodie is a very similar player to Cam Fowler, who many consider one of the best young defencemen in the game.

Norris Trophy winner and (arguably) top defenseman on the 2010 Canadian Olympic team Duncan Keith?

I know I get called a pessimist on here a lot but you haven't seen anything to indicate that Brodie won't be a Norris trophy winner or even on an Olympic team let alone the best defenseman on it?

Cam Fowler scored 40 points as an 18 year old in the league. Brodie hasn't shown anything close to that. And I would say calling Fowler one of the best young defensemen in the game a stretch, there are a lot better defenseman (young) than him.

Sorry if this is a pessimistic view but I agree with Tinordi we must be watching a different player because Canadian Olympic teams and Norris trophies seem a little much in my opinion.

[Goodlad]

Originally Posted by Pierre "Monster" McGuire

A year ago I would've said he looks like a 3/4 guy.

I don't want my vision of Brodie to be impeded by how he looks on a bad team, but I can't help but see a top pairing guy in him.

The kid has a knack for getting out of would-be sticky situations on the ice. 90% of the time he makes the right play. Not only that but the kid's got Bouwmeester-like stamina. He doesn't get rattled easily.

He's only 22 and I think he's a major piece in the rebuild. I think the only think I'd like to see out of him more is some offense. I mean, it's not like he doesn't try offensively, but I'd like to see more points out of him.

Think Brodie's issues offensively are similar to Bouwmeester's. He doesn't have a really good slapshot, so he's not going to score a lot of goals from the point. He's going tohave to use his skating and join the rush as the 4th man in, which he's seems to be doing more ad the season progressed. I'm also surprised by his lack of points on the powerplay as well. He's one of our few players that doesn't have issues entering the offensive zone, moves the puck well and doesn't panic easily. For some reason it hasn't translated to points.

[868904]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Ugh.

Duncan Keith? I know we're all fans here but yesterday we were comparing Backlund to Kesler now we're saying Brodie is the next Keith?

Seriously?

Hey it was the Flames and Playfair who said it, don't shoot the messenger, I just brought it up.

I think Brodie is a much better prospect than Backund. I can see Brodie evolving into a top pairing defenseman but I certainly don't see Backlund evolving into a Kesler, not even close. I see Jussi Jokinen in Backlund.

[CaptainCrunch]

We had a lot of the same arguments about Dion on this very board.

I think Brodie is that guy that can be a puck moving fringe first pair second pair guy.

He's a huge risk taker and he makes some pretty amazing looking blunders, but his is a kid and hopefully the one thing that he has over Phaneuf is the ability for intellectual growth.

Dion's game stagnated because he really doesn't think the game well, Brodie seems to.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Ugh.

Duncan Keith? I know we're all fans here but yesterday we were comparing Backlund to Kesler now we're saying Brodie is the next Keith?

Seriously?

Agree that we are overrating prospects but one thing with D-men is they are very hard to project and do tend to really break out once they hit 24/25.

At 22 Keith was an AHL d-man and if anybody at that time projected him as being a top pairing, Norris candidate, Olympian, in 2010 they would have been laughed at.

For example look at his rating in the 2004 HF organization prospect rankings.

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/article...p20_prospects/

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by 868904

Hey it was the Flames and Playfair who said it, don't shoot the messenger, I just brought it up.

I think Brodie is a much better prospect than Backund. I can see Brodie evolving into a top pairing defenseman but I certainly don't see Backlund evolving into a Kesler, not even close. I see Jussi Jokinen in Backlund.

Why bring it up then? It's clearly a ridiculous comparison.

I also agree that Brodie has better potential than Backlund. I wouldn't call Backlund a prospect any more. Backlund is a player at this point.

I would love for Brodie to turn into a top pairing defenceman but I can't help but be reminded of what we were all saying about Leopold 8 years ago. Brodie may buck the odds and be a top pairing guy, but there's very little indicated out on the ice that he's that player.

[neo45]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Ugh.

Duncan Keith? I know we're all fans here but yesterday we were comparing Backlund to Kesler now we're saying Brodie is the next Keith?

Seriously?

His point totals are almost identical to what Keith's were before he broke out in his 3rd season. In junior, the AHL, and the NHL they were very similar in the start of their careers. Add that to the fact that they are the same size and play a similar game and I can see where the comparisons come from.

When younger NHLers are given a comparison, it is almost always to a player way better than them that, if everything goes right, they could end up being like. Keith is an acceptable "ceiling" comparison for Brodie. Will Brodie ever be as good? Almost certainly not, but Keith is the player that Brodie should be trying to become. It's a much more convincing comparison than Backlund/Kesler

[H2SO4(aq)]

Originally Posted by Goodlad

Think Brodie's issues offensively are similar to Bouwmeester's. He doesn't have a really good slapshot, so he's not going to score a lot of goals from the point. He's going tohave to use his skating and join the rush as the 4th man in, which he's seems to be doing more ad the season progressed. I'm also surprised by his lack of points on the powerplay as well. He's one of our few players that doesn't have issues entering the offensive zone, moves the puck well and doesn't panic easily. For some reason it hasn't translated to points.

disagree. scoring from the point isnt all about muscling it through like Byfuglien or Phaneuf. Some guys can be quite effective just getting shots through, looking for screens, tips and shooting a lot. See J. Schultz this season. He doesnt have much of a cannon but just gets shots through, which is extremely effective

[moon]

Originally Posted by neo45

His point totals are almost identical to what Keith's were before he broke out in his 3rd season. In junior, the AHL, and the NHL they were very similar in the start of their careers. Add that to the fact that they are the same size and play a similar game and I can see where the comparisons come from.

When younger NHLers are given a comparison, it is almost always to a player way better than them that, if everything goes right, they could end up being like. Keith is an acceptable "ceiling" comparison for Brodie. Will Brodie ever be as good? Almost certainly not, but he is the player that Brodie should be trying to become. It's a much more convincing comparison than Backlund/Kesler

Except Keith had a huge jump in terms of production and play that wasn't expected of him and shouldn't be expected of any player.

Why not use an example of a guy that similar numbers and had a normal development pattern instead of continually using the craziest jumps that guys had?

If Keith is an "acceptable" ceiling for Brodie than he is for 3-4 guys in every teams organization right now and guys like Schultz, Fowler, Pietrangelo etc. have Bobby Orr ceilings.