Calgary Centre Federal By-election - Nov 26 (UPDATE - Crockatt wins for CPC)

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by mariners_fever

The chances that he wrote it are slim-to-none, no matter how much it looks otherwise.

Wut? The guy writes for a living.

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by SebC

FFWD has reported that Crockatt is attending. Must be scared!

Word on twitter is that she is backing out from the Cliff Bungalow-Mission debate tonight.

[Slava]

If only the progressives would put down their swords they could do something incredible.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Word on twitter is that she is backing out from the Cliff Bungalow-Mission debate tonight.

Yup, she pulled out after confirming last night.

Pretty weak. I don't think she or the conservative brain trust expected the riding to be this tight. I think they underestimated the loss of 'Red Tory' support and the changing demographics of the riding. I also don't think that the CPC expected a mobilized and organized opposition from the Greens and Liberals.

I think with things going the way they are, Crockatt's vote will be about 30%-33%. I think the CPC's have already lost too many 'Red Tories' to carry them in the 40% range and overall it's got that 'sinking ship' candidate vibe = which is very similar to what Barb Higgins had in the municipal election.

I think the question remains who of Locke and Turner has the potential to hit the 34% or higher ceiling in the polls? Or which one of those two will get the most voters out on election day.

I hope there is a poll released next week as it'll be a solid, solid gauge of what's happening.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

Yup, she pulled out after confirming last night.

Pretty weak. I don't think she or the conservative brain trust expected the riding to be this tight. I think they underestimated the lose of 'Red Tory' support and the changing demographics of the riding. I also don't think that the CPC expected a mobilized and organized opposition from the Greens and Liberals.

I think with things going the way they are, Crockatt's vote will be about 30%-33%. I think the CPC's have already lost too many 'Red Tories' to carry them in the 40% range and overal it's got that 'sinking ship' candidate vibe. Similar to what Barb Higgins had in the municipal election.

I think the question remains who of Locke and Turner has the potential to hit the 34% or higher ceiling in the polls? Or which one of those two will get the most voters out on election day.

I hope there is a poll released next week as it'll be a solid, solid gauge of what's happening.

Yeah, that would be nice.

It also is interesting to see the race tightening--I am not sure how much of that is Richardson being a "red tory" and attracting more soft Conservative support than Crockatt can, or simply that some voters see a by-election as a low-risk way to send a message to Harper. If it's the latter, this could get interesting if the Green or Liberal candidates gain some momentum.

If voter turnout is generally low, which would make sense, this thing may come down to which candidate has the best GOTV operation.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

Yup, she pulled out after confirming last night.

Pretty weak. I don't think she or the conservative brain trust expected the riding to be this tight. I think they underestimated the lose of 'Red Tory' support and the changing demographics of the riding. I also don't think that the CPC expected a mobilized and organized opposition from the Greens and Liberals.

I think with things going the way they are, Crockatt's vote will be about 30%-33%. I think the CPC's have already lost too many 'Red Tories' to carry them in the 40% range and overal it's got that 'sinking ship' candidate vibe. Similar to what Barb Higgins had in the municipal election.

I think the question remains who of Locke and Turner has the potential to hit the 34% or higher ceiling in the polls? Or which one of those two will get the most voters out on election day.

I hope there is a poll released next week as it'll be a solid, solid gauge of what's happening.

Add to that the fact that she is a "Blue Tory" as well. That would be fine in some ridings in the city, but not likely Calgary Centre. At the very least it will cost some votes based on that factor alone.

Turner needs a 50% increase to hit 34%. Can it be done? I guess so. Logically though, if the progressives were actually willing to work together for the common good, they would back Locke and make it more of a certainty.

To those who will undoubtedly ask, yes I would say the same thing if the polling was reversed. Its the sensible thing to do. Even though it was hard to do, I was one of the people telling one of the mayoralty candidates to drop out and throw his support to Nenshi. Of course no one wants to do that. There are hours and hours of hard work and money that go into these things. At the end of the day though, being pragmatic and realistic is important. It would suck if Turner plays Ralph Nader here....which isn't my line, but it sure is appropriate.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Of course, that assumes that voters who are now backing Turner would otherwise have voted Liberal. I'm not saying that isn't true, but I think if our theory is that part of what we're seeing is a collapse of "red tory" support in Calgary Center, then some of those voters may have voted Richardson last time and gone straight to Chris Turner without even considering the Liberals.

Just a thought. Not saying that's what's happening (I have no evidence to back that assertion, obviously, and it rests on a mountain of speculation), but it's at least a possibility.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Of course, that assumes that voters who are now backing Turner would otherwise have voted Liberal. I'm not saying that isn't true, but I think if our theory is that part of what we're seeing is a collapse of "red tory" support in Calgary Center, then some of those voters may have voted Richardson last time and gone straight to Chris Turner without even considering the Liberals.

Just a thought. Not saying that's what's happening (I have no evidence to back that assertion, obviously, and it rests on a mountain of speculation), but it's at least a possibility.

Well ya, that is the assumption and its hard to say without good polling on who your "second choice would be" kind of questions. I would hazard a guess that if the others dropped though that Locke would garner the extra few percentage points pretty quick and same if Locke were to drop.

[Bigtime]

I think the winner is going to be about who can get out the vote best. Based on what I see I think Turner's team may be the best at this.

[c.t.ner]

Given what we know of voting trends and the number of eligible voters (80K) and turnout which should be less than the 49K in the last election (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calgary_Centre). Joan's current standing of 32% is essentially 15000 which might be less given that I'm using last turn out as the base and the recent Forum poll.

Based on what we know from the Forum polling numbers can either Locke (currently at ~ 147000) or Turner (currently at ~ 11270) break the 17K voters plateau to ensure a victory? I think the swing has to be the 8K supporters from the last election who supported the NDP. It's looking less likely that the NDP will able to improve on their numbers from the past election, given how bad their candidate and campaign has performed so far. I doubt that many progressive Calgarians will vote straight NDP this time around without the Organe Crush influence, so I guess the big question is which way do these voters swing?

[jtfrogger]

Originally Posted by Slava

Add to that the fact that she is a "Blue Tory" as well. That would be fine in some ridings in the city, but not likely Calgary Centre. At the very least it will cost some votes based on that factor alone.

Turner needs a 50% increase to hit 34%. Can it be done? I guess so. Logically though, if the progressives were actually willing to work together for the common good, they would back Locke and make it more of a certainty.

To those who will undoubtedly ask, yes I would say the same thing if the polling was reversed. Its the sensible thing to do. Even though it was hard to do, I was one of the people telling one of the mayoralty candidates to drop out and throw his support to Nenshi. Of course no one wants to do that. There are hours and hours of hard work and money that go into these things. At the end of the day though, being pragmatic and realistic is important. It would suck if Turner plays Ralph Nader here....which isn't my line, but it sure is appropriate.

From my perspective, what you are saying here sounds a lot more like the people that were saying that you shouldn't support Nenshi because the best chance of preventing McIver from becoming mayor is to vote for Barb Higgins. There are still 11 days to the by-election. The poll that just come out was done approximately two weeks before the by-election date. If I recall correctly, about two weeks before the mayoral election, McIver & Higgins were a close 1-2 with Nenshi soundly behind them but gaining.

Turner is still a long shot, but he has significant momentum on his side. I would not rule him out.

If you are talking about swaying NDP voters, that makes a lot of sense. Meades is not strong enough to win this election.

[Tinordi]

Chris Turner wrote a fantastic article on Calgary in the Walrus BTW:

http://thewalrus.ca/calgary-reconsid...y-reconsidered

[Slava]

Originally Posted by jtfrogger

From my perspective, what you are saying here sounds a lot more like the people that were saying that you shouldn't support Nenshi because the best chance of preventing McIver from becoming mayor is to vote for Barb Higgins. There are still 11 days to the by-election. The poll that just come out was done approximately two weeks before the by-election date. If I recall correctly, about two weeks before the mayoral election, McIver & Higgins were a close 1-2 with Nenshi soundly behind them but gaining.

Turner is still a long shot, but he has significant momentum on his side. I would not rule him out.

If you are talking about swaying NDP voters, that makes a lot of sense. Meades is not strong enough to win this election.

I kind of hope that Turner loses just so we can stop comparing every election to that one. I get that he was in third place, but there were many factors, one being that other candidates dropped out and threw their support behind him. If we're going to look back at past elections to gauge what might happen here, we can't ignore the past two provincial campaigns.

In 2008 many people thought that Stelmach was in for a beat down. Instead he won a huge majority. Just this past spring people thought that the PCs were finished after 41 years. Instead progressive voters voted for them, even though they aren't as progressive as many would care to acknowledge. We know from these (and many, many other examples) that the polls are often wrong. I have little doubt that this last one is as well. It's not my personal preference, but polls constantly don't account for the satisfied voter. I think that Crockatt wins if the election is today.

Yes, that could definitely change. She could make some terrible errors, and if she keeps skipping forums it might well hurt her. I think that the way that riding has been won before (with Joe Clark) wasn't about a three way race though, it was a coalition, however informal, to dump Eric Loewther. It's certainly possible, and I hope it happens with a hard fought three way campaign (which is truthfully a two way race with third place having a lot of ground to make up, otherwise I suppose its a four way race), but much more difficult to avoid splitting the same targeted voters.

[Bunk]

There was a prospective Liberal candidate (who shall remain unnamed) that if he chose to run would have been up 10-15 points right now. Easily. In that scenario I suspect Chris Turner would not have put his name into the ring and Green support would be nowhere near what it is right now (considering his high calibre and well organized campaign) thus leaving a true two person race. What could have been.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Bunk

There was a prospective Liberal candidate (who shall remain unnamed) that if he chose to run would have been up 10-15 points right now. Easily. In that scenario I suspect Chris Turner would not have put his name into the ring and Green support would be nowhere near what it is right now (considering his high calibre and well organized campaign) thus leaving a true two person race. What could have been.

If its the same person I'm thinking of, it would've been great for so many reasons. I had heard about some conversations and was hoping they'd put their name forward.

[jtfrogger]

After going to the debate tonight, I am pretty sure that I am going to vote for Turner. My thoughts on the candidates tonight:

• Locke - spoke like he was running in an election where he could actually become part of government. He was mocking Turner because he would not be part of the majority even though Locke wouldn't either. At times he seemed to speak as if there were only two parties: conservative & liberal. He tried to use the word progressive in every second sentence. I found it somewhat desperate to try to get the progressive vote by repeatedly trying to say you have the best chance of beating the conservatives but not really giving any other meaningful reason to vote for him. Very much expressed that he would toe the Liberal party line.
• Meades - he actually impressed me in the debate. He is a much better candidate than I gave him credit for earlier. However, I disagree with his position on many items. If Turner backs out of the race, Meades might actually be my second choice just because he is a solid candidate. I can't believe I actually just typed that.
• Turner - In general, I thought he spoke well. He is willing to publicly voice his opinion even if it disagrees with his party leader. As an example, he said that he supports wifi usage in schools even though May feels it should be removed because it may be unsafe.
• Prasad - He is not a factor, and it showed
• Crockatt - She had the opportunity to win my vote but chose not to show.

Originally Posted by Slava

I kind of hope that Turner loses just so we can stop comparing every election to that one. I get that he was in third place, but there were many factors, one being that other candidates dropped out and threw their support behind him. If we're going to look back at past elections to gauge what might happen here, we can't ignore the past two provincial campaigns.

Turner is a definite longshot. But there are significant similarities to the mayoral race. Primarily in the momentum he has. And your argument to vote for Locke because he has the best chance to unseat the CPC was also the only reason I was hearing to vote for Higgins late in the game.

[jtfrogger]

According to the update in this blog post, Crockatt will go to the debate on Saturday.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Slava

Even though it was hard to do, I was one of the people telling one of the mayoralty candidates to drop out and throw his support to Nenshi.

I'm pretty sure I know who you're talking about. I also talked to him about withdrawal (in an "if you get passed, would you consider this?" kind of way), and when he did withdraw, I made a point to thank him for it.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Bunk

There was a prospective Liberal candidate (who shall remain unnamed) that if he chose to run would have been up 10-15 points right now. Easily. In that scenario I suspect Chris Turner would not have put his name into the ring and Green support would be nowhere near what it is right now (considering his high calibre and well organized campaign) thus leaving a true two person race. What could have been.

Now I'm really curious. I have a few ideas, but I won't speculate out in the open.

If it's true, that's too bad--I think this is a winnable riding for the progressive in a two-person race.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by jtfrogger

Turner is a definite longshot. But there are significant similarities to the mayoral race. Primarily in the momentum he has. And your argument to vote for Locke because he has the best chance to unseat the CPC was also the only reason I was hearing to vote for Higgins late in the game.

And it would have been a valid argument (well, except that I preferred McIver to Higgins) were it not for that final poll. Polling is everything, yet we've only seen two polls.

The worst case scenario of me is if Turner is still going up on the final poll and Locke is still below Crockatt. Then it will be very difficult to figure out what the strategic vote would be.

We know that Turner has a ceiling. We don't know what it is, but I find it hard to imagine that it is higher than Locke's. Nevertheless, I remain committed to use all the information that will be made available to me.

I just hope that the Turner people aren't doing too much of this: