Rube's NFL Gambling Odyssey

[zukes]

So far this year, I am up $25.

Week 1 I just missed out on a couple big wins though.

Had Detroit covered the spread, my 3 game parlay with NE & ATL covering would have paid over $175 on my $25 bet.

I also needed Jacksonville to win straight up on a smaller wager.

I put $40 on SF which made me break even.

Week 2 I bet $150 in total on various bets. The only one that came through was a $25 parlay on Seattle and St. Louis that paid $175, thus I am up exactly $25.

[zukes]

As GirlySports says, many good lines this week. I am going to clean up!!!

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

i got totally different games rube

NFL week 3, lots of good road teams, lots of home dogs. Which means you'll get good teams at decent spreads. If you're ever going to play a bunch of favorites, this may be your week. Important to know which road favs are truly talent mismatches.
DET -3 @ TEN
ATL +3 @ SD (best line ever!)
SF -7 @ MIN
GB is better than SEA, but I'd stay the F away from that game in SEA on a monday night.

KC is a mess, but +9 to NO may be too much for the Saints to cover. They are also a mess. Public is overreacting here. NO may cover, but they still aren't worth this week's biggest pointspread.
TB +7.5 @ DAL
STL +8 @ CHI
Both STL and TB are still better than the public yet realizes.

The only home dog I'd really back this week is ARZ +4 vs PHI.

It's funny that we're both thinking the same thing strategy-wise but came up with different bets. My theory on the NYG/Panthers game is that the Giants always play better on the road for some reason, and the Panthers are being overvauled for trouncing a bad Saints team, after being pushed around by Tampa two weeks ago.

[rubecube]

There's something scaring me off that Falcons/Chargers game. I don't know. Late Monday night game, then flying to the West coast for an afternoon game. It just seems too good to be true. Banged down on the Jets -3 and Jags +3. Will also likely hit the Bucs, Texans, and Cards if the prices go down. Don't trust the Steelers in Oakland either.

[HOOT]

Originally Posted by rubecube

There's something scaring me off that Falcons/Chargers game. I don't know.

They can't be trusted as a road team against a decent opponent. They could win the game but I'm too much of a stats guy to go with them even with points.

Falcons are 11-7(ATS) in their last 18 road games, 2-4(ATS) when they are not the favorite. Teams they have beat at the time of meeting were 31-49 (.388W%) where the teams they lost to were 32-16 (.667W%). Pretty similar numbers when you look at the teams season ending records. Personally I always like Atlanta in the Dome but outside unless they are favorites they are a risky pick.

I've taken Arizona and Jacksonville with the points and also looking at Tampa and Baltimore as well. I'm not very confident in the Thursday night game so I may split it between the spread and over/under. Still undecided which way I'm gonna go with the Monday nighter.

[HOOT]

The spread on the Carolina/NY Giants game is on the move with Bradshaw and Hixon out. Was at CAR +1.5 and now CAR -1, I got in a .5U before the bump.

[rubecube]

Nicks is out now, too. Should've waited on this one. Oh well.

[DropIt]

Originally Posted by rubecube

There's something scaring me off that Falcons/Chargers game. I don't know. Late Monday night game, then flying to the West coast for an afternoon game. It just seems too good to be true. Banged down on the Jets -3 and Jags +3. Will also likely hit the Bucs, Texans, and Cards if the prices go down. Don't trust the Steelers in Oakland either.

you must not have watched their games then. The offensive playcalling is laughably bad. Palmer throwing40+ times per game along with DMC barely hitting double digits in carries... Horribly bad

[rubecube]

God damn it. Banged down on the Jets (-3) and Buc (+7) yesterday. Lines are at Jets (-1) and Bucs (+9) today.

[rubecube]

However, waiting on the Niners line paid off. Got it at -6.5.

[rubecube]

The books are really trying to get people off the Cowboys. That game is 50/50 with the public, but the line has gone from DAL -7 to DAL -9. Tells me I'm likely on the wrong side of this one.

[rubecube]

Week 3 Picks (all 1 UNIT) -

NYG -1 = WIN
JAX +3 = WIN
NYJ -3 = PUSH
TB +7 = WIN
SF -6.5 = LOSS
HOU - 1 = WIN
BAL -3 = LOSS

$60.42 to win $60

[HOOT]

Originally Posted by rubecube

God damn it. Banged down on the Jets (-3) and Buc (+7) yesterday. Lines are at Jets (-1) and Bucs (+9) today.

I'm suprised to see the movement in the Tampa game. I also got in early on that one thinking more people wouldn't trust Dallas again. I guess I kinda made up for the movement with getting in on the CAR game early.

To start week 3 I went with CAR +1.5 (.5U) and Over +49.5 (.5U) for tonight's game.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by HOOT

I'm suprised to see the movement in the Tampa game. I also got in early on that one thinking more people wouldn't trust Dallas again. I guess I kinda made up for the movement with getting in on the CAR game early.

To start week 3 I went with CAR +1.5 (.5U) and Over +49.5 (.5U) for tonight's game.

Should try to middle the Giants.

[HOOT]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Should try to middle the Giants.

What is the advantage/disadvantage to that? Am I just hoping for a close games where both bets pay off? Worst case I lose the juice or can I lose both bets?

I've always been a gambler where I would parlay/combo 3-5 games on a ticket so this bet on one game at a time stuff is all new to me.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by HOOT

What is the advantage/disadvantage to that? Am I just hoping for a close games where both bets pay off? Worst case I lose the juice or can I lose both bets?

I've always been a gambler where I would parlay/combo 3-5 games on a ticket so this bet on one game at a time stuff is all new to me.

No, there's not really any way you could lose both bets. You just risk losing the juice, but the payoff would be nice. Here's a good article on middling:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-tr...-on-an-nfl-bet

[HOOT]

Originally Posted by rubecube

No, there's not really any way you could lose both bets. You just risk losing the juice, but the payoff would be nice. Here's a good article on middling:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-tr...-on-an-nfl-bet

You only live once I'll give it a go. So I guess the play is only .5U to make them even bets then?

I never even thought about the advantages of getting on the lines early like that for when they move. So what am I cheering for CAR 1pt loss or 1-2pt win?

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by HOOT

You only live once I'll give it a go. So I guess the play is only .5U to make them even bets then?

Yup.

I never even thought about the advantages of getting on the lines early like that for when they move. So what am I cheering for CAR 1pt loss or 1-2pt win?

Either or.

[HOOT]

I already have a problem with wanting to bet on every single game every week, now I'm betting twice on one game. Thanks rube.

[rubecube]

LOL, anytime. You mostly watching the games at home or you been heading to any of the bars on Sunday? I hit V Lounge last year when the Shark Club was having TV problems, and it was actually surpisingly good, despite the crusty waitresses.